Mídia e futebol feminino: indiferença e distorções

É perceptivo para todos que o futebol feminino não tem o mesmo tratamento e espaço dentro da mídia como tem o esporte masculino, várias seriam as razões que explicam tal acontecimento como, por exemplo, o histórico do futebol em nosso país e a difícil inserção da mulher dentro deste esporte que é tratado como uma reserva exclusivamente masculina, constituindo-se em um espaço privilegiado de exercício de poder. Compondo este cenário, o futebol, juntamente com outros esportes, como lutas, rugby, pólo aquático tiveram sua prática permitida por lei para a mulher há apenas 30 anos atrás. A questão que move este estudo busca compreender se este pouco espaço que lhe é dado está sendo tratado de forma digna e não preconceituosa. Neste sentido, o estudo se justifica devido ao aparente preconceito ainda existente no Brasil que é considerado o país do futebol, mas que ainda não consegue inserir as mulheres de maneira efetiva dentro dessa cultura, o que mostra o predomínio de mitos historicamente construídos. Para compreender este cenário a pesquisa teve como objetivo analisar o discurso midiático, expresso por meio da narração e comentários dos atores que realizam a cobertura televisiva do futebol feminino, sendo que, mais especificamente, esta análise está circunscrita à cobertura da Rede Bandeirantes de Televisão ao Campeonato Mundial de Futebol Feminino da FIFA 2007, realizado na China, no período de 10 a 30 de setembro. Foram analisados, de maneira preliminar, três jogos desta competição, sendo um deles (Brasil x Austrália) selecionado para uma análise mais pormenorizada. Com base no que foi assistido dos jogos foram encontrados três tipos de comentários, os que comparam o jogo feminino com o masculino, os que dão ênfase à beleza das jogadoras, e os que buscam incentivar o futebol feminino no país. Conclui-se que o Brasil ainda precisa... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo)

Uma análise dos impactos sócio-econômicos na África do Sul ao sediar a Copa do Mundo de 2010 e perspectivas de impactos no Brasil como sede da Copa do Mundo de 2014

O presente trabalho visa analisar os reais impactos políticos, econômicos e sociais ocorridos na África do Sul decorrentes do fato de ter sediado a Copa do Mundo FIFA de 2010 além de procurar analisar os eventuais impactos que o Brasil eventualmente sofrerá como sede da Copa do Mundo FIFA de 2014. Por meio da leitura de artigos, trabalhos científicos, livros e websites procurei demonstrar as conseqüências para a África do Sul bem como as expectativas para o Brasil em relação ao evento. Além da análise dos resultados socioeconômicos obtidos na África do Sul em 2010 e procurar mensurar os impactos que o Brasil há de sofrer em 2014 por sediar a Copa, esta monografia ainda apresenta a característica que este megaevento esportivo tem de alterar a economia dos países-sede e movimentar quantias consideráveis de dinheiro. Como resultado da pesquisa, podemos dizer que a primeira Copa sediada no continente africano foi bem sucedida em termos político-sociais, pois, apesar das dificuldades, conseguiram passar uma boa imagem do país para o mundo mostrando ser um povo hospitaleiro, alegre e simpático. Para o caso do Brasil, sabe-se que incentivará o problema da corrupção, da violência urbana e da diferencia entre as classes sociais, porém é uma grande oportunidade para o desenvolvimento econômico do país e de conquistar lugares no cenário político mundial jamais antes conseguidos

#naovaitercopa: manifestações, Copa do Mundo e as eleições de 2014

The article aims to recover the manifestations process of June 2013, in an attempt to understand the elements, which characterized it. It is intended to indicate how and why the main political consequences generated by the manifestations became its own possibility of a rematch in June 2014, during the hosting of the World Cup, organized by FIFA and the Brazilian government. It is suggested which may be the nature and extent of its impacts over the general election in this year. It is argued that the key issue is the ability of the State, the governments and their police in dealing with manifestations that have, relatively, new, persuasive, and violent ideas.

Páginas da copa: o mundial do Brasil na Folha de S. Paulo e Estado de S. Paulo

O futebol nos dias de hoje representa algo muito maior do que um exercício físico ou uma atividade de descontração. Ele desempenha um papel dentro da sociedade que extrapola as perspectivas do jogo. Reduzir a análise sobre o futebol profissional apenas ao aspecto lúdico do esporte também diminui a concepção sobre o que ele realmente representa. Nos bastidores do espetáculo futebolístico existe um universo de atos políticos que abrangem diversas esferas do poder que por sua vez auxiliam na execução do esporte como um evento esportivo com milhões de espectadores. Uma das razões para que o âmbito político do esporte seja menos conhecido do que as táticas dos técnicos ou dribles dos jogadores é a cobertura feita pelos meios de comunicação. No decorrer de sua existência, o futebol se transformou em um evento globalizado que envolve em sua órbita muito mais do que apenas o aspecto esportivo. Com os anos, o esporte foi se firmando em diversos países como produto cultural e até mesmo ferramenta política. O que se vê contudo é a sobreposição midiática do jogo sobre a sua verdadeira estrutura. O entretenimento trazido pelo esporte ganha as páginas enquanto o jogo político que sustenta a realização do mesmo recebe uma atenção mais discreta das mídias. A proposta deste trabalho é analisar como foi feita a divulgação de notícias referentes à Copa do Mundo de 2014, que será realizada no Brasil, nos jornais Folha de S.Paulo e O Estado de S. Paulo durante o ano de 2012 através dos seus cadernos de esportes. O objetivo é compreender qual é o teor e a intensidade da cobertura sobre os fatos políticos que ajudam a dar forma ao evento mais importante do futebol. Acontecimentos desta proporção exigem preparação do país, o que implica em um trabalho em conjunto entre o Governo Federal e FIFA. Pretende-se analisar a contextualização feita pelos jornais em relação ao esporte ao seu aspecto esportivo, podendo...

Glória e tragédia: a dualidade da prestação de contas do Sport Club Corinthians Paulista em seus relatórios de sustentabilidade

Pós-graduação em Comunicação - FAAC

Análise da assimetria nas ações motoras em atletas profissionais de futsal

Lateral asymmetries are in everywhere as well as in all movements made by man, which become more evident in movements of sport. The asymmetry is particularly pointed out in futsal when players, even with clear opportunity of making use of their non-preferred foot, try to place the ball in order to execute the action with their preferred foot. The study of asymmetry in futsal is quite relevant, once ambidextrous players present advantages in their performances during a match, which can help futsal athletes not only in their performance improvement but also with the prescription of training. For this reason, the present study had questioned: is there symmetry/asymmetry at the performance of lower contralateral limbs during actions with the possession ball (pass, receiving a ball and kick into the goal) during a futsal match? Thus, the aim of this study was to analyze the symmetry/asymmetry using the preferred and non-preferred foot in actions with the possession ball (pass, receiving and shoot) in adult Futsal's players (professional). The winner team of eight matches of the 2012 FIFA Futsal World Cup was analyzed. An average of 75 players had all their actions (pass, receiving a ball and shot on goal) using their lower limbs during the match analyzed. However, their actions with the head and torso were not analyzed. The games were acquired through a television broadcast. All eight matches were followed by an appraiser through a computer. The Skout® software was used to collect the data, taking notes of the player involved, the type of action (pass, receiving a ball and shot on goal), its foot used (preferred or non-preferred foot) and if the execution was correct or wrong. These data were saved in a text file, in the form of a matrix and imported into the Matlab® software, where was analyzed the following parameters: frequency of occurrence of each action with each foot and quantity of correct and wrong occurrences performed with...

Análisis del desarrollo del juego del fútbol 11 desde la óptica de los sistemas complejos

Programa de doctorado: Doctorado en Formación del Profesorado.

Visual scanning in sports actions: comparison between soccer goalkeepers and judo fighters

Visual search and oculomotor behaviour are believed to be very relevant for athlete performance, especially for sports requiring refined visuo-motor coordination skills. Modern coaches believe that a correct visuo-motor strategy may be part of advanced training programs. In this thesis two experiments are reported in which gaze behaviour of expert and novice athletes were investigated while they were doing a real sport specific task. The experiments concern two different sports: judo and soccer. In each experiment, number of fixations, fixation locations and mean fixation duration (ms) were considered. An observational analysis was done at the end of the paper to see perceptual differences between near and far space. Purpose: The aim of the judo study was to delineate differences in gaze behaviour characteristics between a population of athletes and one of non athletes. Aspects specifically investigated were: search rate, search order and viewing time across different conditions in a real-world task. The second study was aimed at identifying gaze behaviour in varsity soccer goalkeepers while facing a penalty kick executed with instep and inside foot. Then an attempt has been done to compare the gaze strategies of expert judoka and soccer goalkeepers in order to delineate possible differences related to the different conditions of reacting to events occurring in near (peripersonal) or far (extrapersonal) space. Judo Methods: A sample of 9 judoka (black belt) and 11 near judoka (white belt) were studied. Eye movements were recorded at 500Hz using a video based eye tracker (EyeLink II). Each subject participated in 40 sessions for about 40 minutes. Gaze behaviour was considered as average number of locations fixated per trial, the average number of fixations per trial, and mean fixation duration. Soccer Methods: Seven (n = 7) intermediate level male volunteered for the experiment. The kickers and goalkeepers, had at least varsity level soccer experience. The vision-in-action (VIA) system (Vickers 1996; Vickers 2007) was used to collect the coupled gaze and motor behaviours of the goalkeepers. This system integrated input from a mobile eye tracking system (Applied Sciences Laboratories) with an external video of the goalkeeper’s saving actions. The goalkeepers took 30 penalty kicks on a synthetic pitch in accordance with FIFA (2008) laws. Judo Results: Results indicate that experts group differed significantly from near expert for fixations duration, and number of fixations per trial. The expert judokas used a less exhaustive search strategy involving fewer fixations of longer duration than their novice counterparts and focused on central regions of the body. The results showed that in defence and attack situation expert group did a greater number of transitions with respect to their novice counterpart. Soccer Results: We found significant main effect for the number of locations fixated across outcome (goal/save) but not for foot contact (instep/inside). Participants spent more time fixating the areas in instep than inside kick and in goal than in save situation. Mean and standard error in search strategy as a result of foot contact and outcome indicate that the most gaze behaviour start and finish on ball interest areas. Conclusions: Expert goalkeepers tend to spend more time in inside-save than instep-save penalty, differences that was opposite in scored penalty kick. Judo results show that differences in visual behaviour related to the level of expertise appear mainly when the test presentation is continuous, last for a relatively long period of time and present a high level of uncertainty with regard to the chronology and the nature of events. Expert judoist performers “anchor” the fovea on central regions of the scene (lapel and face) while using peripheral vision to monitor opponents’ limb movements. The differences between judo and soccer gaze strategies are discussed on the light of physiological and neuropsychological differences between near and far space perception.

Ordenamento territorial em Recife-pe : Os impactos urbanísticos e sociais da realocação de comunidades através do projeto Via Mangue

The logic of territorial ordainment in Recife has been developed mainly through the seclusion of the unwanted and the removal of stilt houses and slums in order to make room and prepare the space for new private enterprises. As an example of ordainment we took the 'Via Mangue' project, which is part of Recife's mobility plan and is one of the main projects aimed at the city's preparation for the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil. We believe that the project makes use of the 'great social benefits' discourse in order to cover its actual and practical consequences which, taken as whole, lead to the favoring of private sector over the public interest. That being so, the main goal of the present work is to make an analysis of territorial ordainment in Recife through the execution of the Via Mangue project; observing at the same time the urban and social impacts caused by the relocation of communities to the Via Mangue III housing complex, and verifying whether this policy actually promoted substantial improvement of habitability or only a precarious social inclusion of these populations. Our research was conducted and operated at three levels. First, the conceptual reconstitution of territorial ordainment; second, documental and cartographic research on the Via Mangue project; and last, fieldwork with observation of the constructed space and personal interviews with members of the families relocated to the Via Mangue III housing complex. We hope the present work could be a valuable contribution to the comprehension of the complexities involved in the relocation of families to housing complexes built by the government

Ordenamento territorial em Recife-pe : Os impactos urbanísticos e sociais da realocação de comunidades através do projeto Via Mangue

The logic of territorial ordainment in Recife has been developed mainly through the seclusion of the unwanted and the removal of stilt houses and slums in order to make room and prepare the space for new private enterprises. As an example of ordainment we took the 'Via Mangue' project, which is part of Recife's mobility plan and is one of the main projects aimed at the city's preparation for the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil. We believe that the project makes use of the 'great social benefits' discourse in order to cover its actual and practical consequences which, taken as whole, lead to the favoring of private sector over the public interest. That being so, the main goal of the present work is to make an analysis of territorial ordainment in Recife through the execution of the Via Mangue project; observing at the same time the urban and social impacts caused by the relocation of communities to the Via Mangue III housing complex, and verifying whether this policy actually promoted substantial improvement of habitability or only a precarious social inclusion of these populations. Our research was conducted and operated at three levels. First, the conceptual reconstitution of territorial ordainment; second, documental and cartographic research on the Via Mangue project; and last, fieldwork with observation of the constructed space and personal interviews with members of the families relocated to the Via Mangue III housing complex. We hope the present work could be a valuable contribution to the comprehension of the complexities involved in the relocation of families to housing complexes built by the government

Ordenamento territorial em Recife-pe : Os impactos urbanísticos e sociais da realocação de comunidades através do projeto Via Mangue

The logic of territorial ordainment in Recife has been developed mainly through the seclusion of the unwanted and the removal of stilt houses and slums in order to make room and prepare the space for new private enterprises. As an example of ordainment we took the 'Via Mangue' project, which is part of Recife's mobility plan and is one of the main projects aimed at the city's preparation for the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil. We believe that the project makes use of the 'great social benefits' discourse in order to cover its actual and practical consequences which, taken as whole, lead to the favoring of private sector over the public interest. That being so, the main goal of the present work is to make an analysis of territorial ordainment in Recife through the execution of the Via Mangue project; observing at the same time the urban and social impacts caused by the relocation of communities to the Via Mangue III housing complex, and verifying whether this policy actually promoted substantial improvement of habitability or only a precarious social inclusion of these populations. Our research was conducted and operated at three levels. First, the conceptual reconstitution of territorial ordainment; second, documental and cartographic research on the Via Mangue project; and last, fieldwork with observation of the constructed space and personal interviews with members of the families relocated to the Via Mangue III housing complex. We hope the present work could be a valuable contribution to the comprehension of the complexities involved in the relocation of families to housing complexes built by the government

Effect of positioning on the accuracy of decision making of association football top-class referees and assistant referees during competitive matches

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of positioning on the correctness of decision making of top-class referees and assistant referees during international games. Match analyses were carried out during the Fe´de´ration Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) Confederations Cup 2009 and 380 foul play incidents and 165 offside situations were examined. The error percentage for the referees when indicating the incidents averaged 14%. The lowest error percentage occurred in the central area of the field, where the collaboration of the assistant referee is limited, and was achieved when indicating the incidents from a distance of 11–15 m, whereas this percentage peaked (23%) in the last 15-min match period. The error rate for the assistant referees was 13%. Distance of the assistant referee to the offside line did not have an impact on the quality of the offside decision. The risk of making incorrect decisions was reduced when the assistant referees viewed the offside situations from an angle between 46 and 608. Incorrect offside decisions occurred twice as often in the second as in the first half of the games. Perceptual-cognitive training sessions specific to the requirements of the game should be implemented in the weekly schedule of football officials to reduce the overall error rate.

Evaluación del rendimiento de jugadores y equipos de fútbol de nivel de élite en diferentes contextos situacionales = Evaluation on Match Performances of Professional Football Players and Teams under Different Situational Conditions = 不同情境条件下高水平足球运动员和运动队的比赛表现分析

El análisis del rendimiento en deportes juega un papel esencial en el fútbol profesional. Aunque el estudio del análisis del juego en fútbol se ha utilizado desde diferentes ámbitos y situaciones, todavía existen diferentes aspectos y componentes del juego que siguen sin estar estudiados. En este sentido existen diferentes aspectos que deben de superar los estudios previos centrados en el componente descriptivo tales como el uso de variables/ indicadores de rendimiento que no se han definido ni estudiado, la validez de los métodos observaciones que no han sido testados con los softwares específicos en fútbol, la aplicación y utilidad de los resultados, así como las limitaciones del estudio de las variables situacionales/contextuales. Con el objetivo de cubrir las citadas limitaciones se han diseñado 6 estudios independientes e inter-relacionados que tratan de estudiar los aspectos anteriormente referidos. El primer estudio evalua la fiabilidad inter-observadores de las estadísticas de juego de la empresa privada OPTA Sportsdata, estos datos son la muestra de estudio de la presente tesis doctoral. Dos grupos de observadores experimentados se requieren para analizar un partido de la liga española de manera independiente. Los resultados muestran que los eventos de equipos y porteros codificados por los inter-operadores alcanzan un acuerdo muy bueno (valores kappa entre 0.86 y 0.94). La validez inter-observadores de las acciones de juego y los datos de jugadores individuales se evaluó con elevados niveles de acuerdo (valores del coeficiente de correlación intraclase entre 0.88 hasta 1.00, el error típico estandarizado variaba entre 0.00 hasta 0.37). Los resultados sugieren que las estadísticas de juego registradas por los operadores de la empresa OPTA Sportsdata están bien entrenados y son fiables. El segundo, tercer y cuarto estudio se centran en resaltar la aplicabilidad del análisis de rendimiento en el fútbol así como para explicar en profundidad las influencias de las variables situacionales. Utilizando la técnica de los perfiles de rendimiento de jugadores y equipos de fútbol se puede evaluar y comparar de manera gráfica, fácil y visual. Así mismo, mediante esta técnica se puede controlar el efecto de las variables situacionales (localización del partido, nivel del equipo y del oponente, y el resultado final del partido). Los perfiles de rendimiento de porteros (n = 46 porteros, 744 observaciones) y jugadores de campo (n = 409 jugadores, 5288 observaciones) de la primera division professional de fútbol Española (La Liga, temporada 2012-13), los equipos (n = 496 partidos, 992 observaciones) de la UEFA Champions League (temporadas 2009-10 a 2012-13) fueron analizados registrando la media, desviación típica, mediana, cuartiles superior e inferior y el recuento de valores de cada indicador de rendimiento y evento, los cuales se presentaron en su forma tipificada y normalizada. Los valores medios de los porteros de los equipos de diferentes niveles de La Liga y de los equipos de diferente nivel de la UEFA Champions League cuando jugaban en diferentes contextos de juego y situaciones (variables situacionales) fueron comparados utilizando el ANOVA de un factor y la prueba t para muestras independientes (localización del partido, diferencias entre casa y fuera), y fueron establecidos en los perfiles de red después de unificar todos los registros en la misma escala derivada con valores estandarizados. Mientras que las diferencias de rendimiento entre los jugadores de los mejores equipos (Top3) y los peores (Bottom3) fueron comparados mediante el uso de diferencias en la magnitud del tamaño del efecto. El quinto y el sexto estudio analizaban el rendimiento del fútbol desde un punto de vista de predicción del rendimiento. El modelo linear general y el modelo lineal general mixto fue empleado para analizar la magnitud de las relaciones de los indicadores y estadísticas de juego con el resultado final del partido en función del tipo de partido (partidos ajustados o todos los partidos) en la fase de grupos de la Copa del Mundo 2014 de Brasil (n = 48 partidos, 38 partidos ajustados) y La Liga 2012-13 (n = 320 partidos ajustados). Las relaciones fueron evaluadas mediante las inferencias en la magnitud de las diferencias y se expresaron como partidos extra ganados o perdidos por cada 10 partidos mediante la variable calculada en 2 desviaciones típicas. Los resultados mostraron que, para los 48 partidos de la fase de grupos de la Copa del Mundo 2014, nueve variables tuvieron un efecto positive en la probabilidad de ganar (tiros, tiros a puerta, tiros de contraataque, tiros dentro del área, posesión de balón, pases en corto, media de secuencia de pases, duelos aéreos y entradas), cuatro tuvieron efectos negativos (tiros bloqueados, centros, regates y tarjetas amarillas), y otras 12 variables tenían efectos triviales o poco claros. Mientras que los 38 partidos ajustados, el efecto de duelos aéreos y tarjetas amarillas fueron triviales y claramente negativos respectivamente. En la La Liga, existió un efecto moderado positive para cada equipo para los tiros a puerta (3.4 victorias extras por cada 10 partidos; 99% IC ±1.0), y un efecto positivo reducido para tiros totales (1.7 victorias extrsa; ±1.0). Los efectos de la mayoría de los eventos se han relacionado con la posesión del balón, la cual obtuvo efectos negativos entre equipos (1.2 derrotas extras; ±1.0) pero un efecto positivo pequeño entra equipos (1.7 victorias extras; ±1.4). La localización del partido mostró un efecto positive reducido dentro de los equipos (1.9 victorias extras; ±0.9). Los resultados obtenidos en los perfiles y el modelado del rendimiento permiten ofrecer una información detallada y avanzada para el entrenamiento, la preparación previa a los partidos, el control de la competición y el análisis post-partido, así como la evaluación e identificación del talento de los jugadores. ABSTRACT Match performance analysis plays an important role in the modern professional football. Although the research in football match analysis is well-developed, there are still some issues and problems remaining in this field, which mainly include the lack of operational definitions of variables, reliability issues, applicability of the findings, the lack of contextual/situational variables, and focusing too much on descriptive and comparative analysis. In order to address these issues, six independent but related studies were conducted in the current thesis. The first study evaluated the inter-operator reliability of football match statistics from OPTA Sportsdata Company which is the data resourse of the thesis. Two groups of experienced operators were required to analyse a Spanish league match independently in the experiment. Results showed that team events and goalkeeper actions coded by independent operators reached a very good agreement (kappa values between 0.86 and 0.94). The inter-operator reliability of match actions and events of individual outfield players was also tested to be at a high level (intra-class correlation coefficients ranged from 0.88 to 1.00, standardised typical error varied from 0.00 to 0.37). These results suggest that the football match statistics collected by well-trained operators from OPTA Sportsdata Company are reliable. The second, third and fourth study aims to enhance the applicability of football match performance analysis and to explore deeply the influences of situational variables. By using a profiling technique, technical and tactical performances of football players and teams can be interpreted, evaluated and compared more easily and straightforwardly, meanwhile, influences and effects from situational variables (match location, strength of team and opposition, and match outcome) on the performances can be properly incorporated. Performance profiles of goalkeepers (n = 46 goalkeepers, 744 full match observations) and outfield players (n = 409 players, 5288 full match observations) from the Spanish First Division Professional Football League (La Liga, season 2012-13), teams (n = 496 matches, 992 observations) from UEFA Champions League (seasons 2009-10 to 2012-13) were set up by presenting the mean, standard deviation, median, lower and upper quartiles of the count values of each performance-related match action and event to represent their typical performances and spreads. Means of goalkeeper from different levels of team in La Liga and teams of different strength in UEFA Champions League when playing under different situational conditions were compared by using one-way ANOVA and independent sample t test (for match location, home and away differences), and were plotted into the same radar charts after unifying all the event counts by standardised score. While differences between the performances of outfield players from Top3 and from Bottom3 teams were compared by magnitude-based inferences. The fifth and sixth study aims to move from the descriptive and comparative football match analysis to a more predictive one. Generalised linear modelling and generalised mixed linear modelling were undertaken to quantify relationships of the performance-related match events, actions and variables with the match outcome in different types of games (close games and all games) in the group stage of 2014 Brazil FIFA World Cup (n = 48 games, 38 close games) and La Liga 2012-13 (n = 320 close games). Relationships were evaluated with magnitude-based inferences and were expressed as extra matches won or lost per 10 matches for an increase of two standard deviations of a variable. Results showed that, for all the 48 games in the group stage of 2014 FIFA World Cup, nine variables had clearly positive effects on the probability of winning (shot, shot on target, shot from counter attack, shot from inside area, ball possession, short pass, average pass streak, aerial advantage, and tackle), four had clearly negative effects (shot blocked, cross, dribble and red card), other 12 variabless had either trivial or unclear effects. While for the 38 close games, the effects of aerial advantage and yellow card turned to trivial and clearly negative, respectively. In the La Liga, there was a moderate positive within-team effect from shots on target (3.4 extra wins per 10 matches; 99% confidence limits ±1.0), and a small positive within-team effect from total shots (1.7 extra wins; ±1.0). Effects of most other match events were related to ball possession, which had a small negative within-team effect (1.2 extra losses; ±1.0) but a small positive between-team effect (1.7 extra wins; ±1.4). Game location showed a small positive within-team effect (1.9 extra wins; ±0.9). Results from the established performance profiles and modelling can provide detailed and straightforward information for training, pre-match preparations, in-match tactical approaches and post-match evaluations, as well as for player identification and development. 摘要 比赛表现分析在现代足球中起着举足轻重的作用。尽管如今对足球比赛表现分析的研究已经相对完善，但仍有很多不足之处。这些不足主要体现在：研究中缺乏对研究变量的清晰定义、数据信效度缺失、研究结果的实用性受限、比赛情境因素缺失以及过于集中在描述性和对比性分析等。针对这些问题，本论文通过六个独立而又相互联系的研究，进一步对足球比赛表现分析进行完善。 第一个研究对本论文的数据源--OPTA Sportsdata公司的足球比赛数据的信效度进行了实验检验。实验中，两组数据收集人员被要求对同一场西班牙足球甲级联赛的比赛进行分析。研究结果显示，两组收集人员记录下的球队比赛事件和守门员比赛行为具有高度的一致性(卡帕系数介于0.86和0.94)。收集人员输出的外场球员的比赛行为和比赛事件也具有很高的组间一致性(ICC相关系数介于0.88和1.00，标准化典型误差介于0.00和0.37)。实验结果证明了OPTA Sportsdata公司收集的足球比赛数据具有足够高的信效度。 第二、三、四个研究旨在提升足球比赛表现分析研究结果的实用性以及深度探讨比赛情境因素对足球比赛表现的影响。通过对足球运动员和运动队的比赛技战术表现进行档案创建，可以对运动员和运动队的比赛表现进行简直接而直观的呈现、评价和对比，同时，情境变量(比赛场地、球队和对手实力、比赛结果)对比赛表现的影响也可以被整合到表现档案中。本部分对2012-13赛季西班牙足球甲级联赛的参赛守门员(n = 46球员人次，744比赛场次)和外场球员(n = 409球员人次, 5288比赛场次)以及2009-10至2012-13赛季欧洲足球冠军联赛的参赛球队(n = 496比赛场次)的比赛技战术表现进行了档案创建。在表现档案中，各项比赛技战术指标的均值、标准差、中位数和大小四分位数被用来展现守门员、外场球员和球队的普遍表现和表现浮动性。方差分析(ANOVA)被用来对西甲不同水平球队的守门员、欧冠中不同水平球队在不同比赛情境下的普遍表现(各项指标的均值)进行对比，独立样本t检验被用来对比主客场比赛普遍表现的差异。数据量级推断(magnitude-based inferences)的方法则被用来对西甲前三名和最后三名球队外场球员的普遍表现进行对比分析。所有来自不同水平球队的运动员和不同水平运动队的各项比赛指标皆被转换成了标准分数，从而能把他们在各种不同比赛情境下的普遍表现(各项比赛指标的均值)投到相同的雷达图中进行直观的对比。 第五和第六个研究目的在于进行预测性足球比赛表现分析，从而跨越之前固有的描述性和对比性分析。广义线性模型和广义混合线性模型被用来对2014年巴西世界杯小组赛(n = 48 比赛场次，38小分差场次)和2012-13赛季西甲联赛(n = 320小分差场次)的比赛中各表现相关比赛事件、行为和变量与比赛结果(胜、平、负)的关系进行建模。模型中的关系通过数据量级推断(magnitude-based inferences)的方法来界定，具体表现为某个变量增加两个标准差对比赛结果的影响(每10场比赛中额外取胜或失利的场数)。研究结果显示，在2014年巴西世界杯小组赛的所有48场比赛中，9个变量(射门、射正、反击中射门、禁区内射门、控球、短传、连续传球平均次数、高空球争抢成功率和抢断)与赢球概率有清晰的正相关关系，4个变量(射门被封堵、传中、过人和红牌)与赢球概率有清晰的负相关关系，其他12个被分析的变量与赢球概率的相关关系微小或不清晰。而在38场小分差比赛中，高空球争抢成功率由正相关变为微小关系，黄牌则由微小关系变为清晰的负相关。在西甲联赛中，每一支球队增加两个标准差的“射正球门”可以给每10场比赛带来3.4场额外胜利(99%置信区间±1.0场)，而所有球队作为一个整体，每增加两个标准差的“射正球门”可以给每10场比赛带来1.7场额外胜利(99%置信区间±1.0场)。其他大多数比赛相关事件与比赛结果的相关关系与“控球”相关联。每一支球队增加两个标准差的“控球”将会给每10场比赛带来1.2场额外失利(99%置信区间±1.0场)，而所有球队作为一个整体，每增加两个标准差的“控球”可以给每10场比赛带来1.7场额外胜利(99%置信区间±1.4场)。与客场比赛相对，主场能给球队带来1.9 /10场额外胜利(99%置信区间±0.9场)。 比赛表现档案和模型中得出的研究结果可以为俱乐部、足球队、教练组、表现分析师和运动员提供详细而直接的参考信息。这些信息可用于训练指导、赛前备战、赛中技战术调整和赛后技战术表现分析，也可运用于足球运动员选材、培养和发展。

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