A Global Strategy for a soul-searching European Union. EPC Discussion Paper, 13 July 2016

On 28 June 2016, just a few days after the historic Brexit vote, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini presented the paper on the new European Union Global Strategy (EUGS) at the European Council, outlining the strategic coordinates for the EU’s foreign and security policy. In this Discussion Paper, Giovanni Grevi takes a closer look at the EUGS and assesses its main rationale, features, added value and prospects against the backdrop of an ever more complex world. Not only is the EU dealing with increasingly contested and polarised politics at home, but the global theatre itself has become hugely disorienting, more integrated and yet more fragmented at the same time. The paper recalibrates the overall foreign policy posture of the EU and sketches out a more modest and concrete approach compared to earlier aspirations, and a more joined-up one compared to current practice. By doing so, the strategy seeks to square the circle between the need for Europe to be cohesive and purposeful in a harder strategic environment and the fact that domestic politics within the Union constrain its external action and drain its attractiveness. The EUGS calls on the EU and member states to fully take on their responsibility to underpin unity, prosperity and security at home by taking more effective and joined-up action abroad. The question is, of course, whether this call will be heeded.

Second St. Gallen European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Gastrointestinal Cancer Conference: consensus recommendations on controversial issues in the primary treatment of rectal cancer

Primary treatment of rectal cancer was the focus of the second St. Gallen European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Gastrointestinal Cancer Conference. In the context of the conference, a multidisciplinary international expert panel discussed and voted on controversial issues which could not be easily answered using published evidence. Main topics included optimal pretherapeutic imaging, indication and type of neoadjuvant treatment, and the treatment strategies in advanced tumours. Here we report the key recommendations and summarise the related evidence. The treatment strategy for localised rectal cancer varies from local excision in early tumours to neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy (RCT) in combination with extended surgery in locally advanced disease. Optimal pretherapeutic staging is a key to any treatment decision. The panel recommended magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or MRI + endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) as mandatory staging modalities, except for early T1 cancers with an option for local excision, where EUS in addition to MRI was considered to be most important because of its superior near-field resolution. Primary surgery with total mesorectal excision was recommended by most panellists for some early tumours with limited risk of recurrence (i.e. cT1-2 or cT3a N0 with clear mesorectal fascia on MRI and clearly above the levator muscles), whereas all other stages were considered for multimodal treatment. The consensus panel recommended long-course RCT over short-course radiotherapy for most clinical situations where neoadjuvant treatment is indicated, with the exception of T3a/b N0 tumours where short-course radiotherapy or even no neoadjuvant therapy were regarded to be an option. In patients with potentially resectable tumours and synchronous liver metastases, most panel members did not see an indication to start with classical fluoropyrimidine-based RCT but rather favoured preoperative short-course radiotherapy with systemic combination chemotherapy or alternatively a liver-first resection approach in resectable metastases, which both allow optimal systemic therapy for the metastatic disease. In general, proper patient selection and discussion in an experienced multidisciplinary team was considered as crucial component of care.

European War pamphlets

A collection of miscellaneous pamphlets on World War I.

Az európai gazdasági kormányzás előtt álló kihívások. A hármas tagadás lehetetlensége (Challenges of European economic governance. The impossible trinity of denial.)

Az európai gazdasági integráció folyamata olyan kényszerhelyzetekben formálódott a múltban, amelyek a közgazdaságtudományban jól ismert lehetetlen háromság alapján is leírhatók. Az Európai Monetáris Rendszer a rögzített árfolyam-mechanizmusra és önálló jegybanki politikára épített, korlátozva a tőkemozgásokat. A Gazdasági és Monetáris Unió ugyanakkor a tőke szabad áramlásával és az árfolyamok visszavonhatatlan rögzítésével felszámolta a tagállami szintű jegybanki autonómiát. Az euróövezet működése egyszersmind arra a háromszoros tagadásra épül(t), hogy 1. nem lehetséges az euróövezetből való kilépés, 2. nem engedélyezett a kimentés és 3. nem kerülhet sor államcsődre. A 2008-ban Európát is elérő pénzügyi és gazdasági válság azonban elemi erővel mutatott rá e hármas tiltás tarthatatlanságára. A gazdasági kormányzás körül kibontakozott viták így jól közelíthetők a három tiltó szabály egyidejű érvényesülése lehetetlenségének bemutatásával, számba véve az egyes opciók költségeit és lehetséges hasznait. / === / The process of economic integration in the EU has been shaped by the well-known theorem of the impossible trinity. Accordingly, the European Monetary System was built upon a mix of a fixed exchange-rate regime and an autonomous monetary policy, thereby constraining capital mobility. In launching the EMU project, the EU countries decided to fix national currencies irrevocably and maintain full capital mobility, in exchange for delegating their monetary policy upwards to a supranational level. The introduction of the Euro zone, however, has simultaneously meant denial of the following three elements: (1) exit, (2) bail-out, and (3) default. Nevertheless, the 2008–9 financial and economic crisis has demonstrated mercilessly that these three pillars are incompatible with each other. So the current debates on reshaping economic governance in the EU can be modelled by introducing the “impossible trinity of denial”, concentrating on the benefits and the costs of each option.

Fiscal and Monetary Institutions in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European Countries

This paper studies the role of fiscal and monetary institutions in macroeconomic stability and budgetary control in central, eastern and south-eastern European countries (CESEE) in comparison with other OECD countries. CESEE countries tend to grow faster and have more volatile output than non-CESEE OECD countries, which has implications for macroeconomic management: better fiscal and monetary institutions are needed to avoid pro-cyclical policies. The paper develops a Budgetary Discipline Index to assess whether good fiscal institutions underpin good fiscal outcomes. Even though most CESEE countries have low scores, the debt/GDP ratios declined before the crisis. This was largely the consequence of a very favourable relationship between the economic growth rate and the interest rate, but such a favourable relationship is not expected in the future. Econometric estimations confirm that better monetary institutions reduce macroeconomic volatility and that countries with better budgetary procedures have better fiscal outcomes. All these factors call for improved monetary institutions, stronger fiscal rules and better budgetary procedures in CESEE countries.

The Challenge of Migration and the Global Security Strategy of the European Union

This article discusses the challenges of irregular migration for the security of the EU. They are analyzed starting with the European Security Strategy 2003, and the Report on its Implementation, 2008, and notes many failures: The EU Members did not follow the directives adopted in Brussels, the mismanagement of migration and asylum policies, and numerous actions that can be characterized or described as improvised, scattered or irresponsible. The 2016 Global Strategy recognizes these failures and call attention to the European leaders to reconsider how the EU functions and operates, suggesting the need for greater unity and cooperation to achieve a more effective migration policy. However, the article points out that practically all of the sections of the new Strategy dealing with migration were already embodied in previous Strategies, and stress that in parallel with the publication of the 2016 Global Strategy, actions are already undertaken, such as the EU readmission agreements signed with several important third countries of origin.

Democratic Citizenship - A Conditioned Apprenticeship : A Call for Destabilisation of Democracy in Education

We live in times when the search for a citizenship education that can transcend national, ethnical and cultural borders is an important part of educational policy. In times of increased pressure by the European Union on its nation states to provide for nation-transcending democracy, this question becomes crucial for national policymaking in Europe. In this text, Swedish education policy will be taken as a case in point in order to shed light on how this question is being handled in this particular national policy setting. It is argued that the policy’s citizen fostering agenda tends to be counterproductive in the sense that it is still situated in national notions of the relationship between democracy and education, which tend to exclude certain individuals and groups of people on an age-related and (ethno) cultural basis. It is further argued that these excluding features can be related to educational ideas about socialisation. The aim of this text is underlined by suggesting a different way of framing democracy and democratic citizenship education: to increase the potential of education as regards the renewal of democracy and democratic citizenship.

Time domain decomposition for European options in financial modelling

Finance is one of the fastest growing areas in modern applied mathematics with real world applications. The interest of this branch of applied mathematics is best described by an example involving shares. Shareholders of a company receive dividends which come from the profit made by the company. The proceeds of the company, once it is taken over or wound up, will also be distributed to shareholders. Therefore shares have a value that reflects the views of investors about the likely dividend payments and capital growth of the company. Obviously such value will be quantified by the share price on stock exchanges. Therefore financial modelling serves to understand the correlations between asset and movements of buy/sell in order to reduce risk. Such activities depend on financial analysis tools being available to the trader with which he can make rapid and systematic evaluation of buy/sell contracts. There are other financial activities and it is not an intention of this paper to discuss all of these activities. The main concern of this paper is to propose a parallel algorithm for the numerical solution of an European option. This paper is organised as follows. First, a brief introduction is given of a simple mathematical model for European options and possible numerical schemes of solving such mathematical model. Second, Laplace transform is applied to the mathematical model which leads to a set of parametric equations where solutions of different parametric equations may be found concurrently. Numerical inverse Laplace transform is done by means of an inversion algorithm developed by Stehfast. The scalability of the algorithm in a distributed environment is demonstrated. Third, a performance analysis of the present algorithm is compared with a spatial domain decomposition developed particularly for time-dependent heat equation. Finally, a number of issues are discussed and future work suggested.

The joint European Research Infrastructure Network for Coastal Observatories: Achievements and Strategy for the Future

This document is summarizing a major part of the work performed by the FP7-JERICO consortium, including 27 partner institutions, during 4 years (2011-2015). Its objective is to propose a strategy for the European coastal observation and monitoring. To do so we give an overview of the main achievements of the FP7-JERICO project. From this overview, gaps are analysed to draw some recommendations for the future. Overview, gaps and recommendation are addressed at both Hardware and Software levels of the JERICO Research Infrastructure. The main part of the document is built upon this analysis to outcome a general strategy for the future, giving priorities to be targeted and some possible funding mechanisms, but also upon discussions held in dedicated JERICO strategy workshops. This document was initiated in 2014 by the coordination team but considering the fact that an overview of the entire project and its achievement were needed to feed this strategy deliverable it couldn’t ended before the end of FP7-JERICO, April 2015. The preparation of the JERICO-NEXT proposal in summer 2014 to answer an H2020 call for proposals pushed the consortium ahead, fed deep thoughts about this strategy but the intention was to not propose a strategy only bounded by the JERICO-NEXT answer. Authors are conscious that writing JERICO-NEXT is even drawing a bias in the thoughts and they tried to be opened. Nevertheless, comments are always welcome to go farther ahead. Structure of the document The Chapter 3 introduces the need of sustained coastal observatories, from different point of view including a short description of the FP7-JERICO project. In Chapter 4, an analysis of the JERICO coastal observatory Hardware (platforms and sensors) in terms of Status at the end of JERICO, identified gaps and recommendations for further development is provided region by region. The main challenges that remain to be overcome is also summarized. Chapter 5 is dedicated the JERICO infrastructure Software (calibration, operation, quality assessment, data management) and the progress made through JERICO on harmonization of procedures and definition of best practices. Chapter 6 provides elements of a strategy towards sustainable and integrated coastal observations for Europe, drawing a roadmap for cost-effective scientific-based consolidation of the present infrastructure while maximizing the potential arising from JERICO in terms of innovation, wealth-creation, and business development. After reading the chapter 3, for who doesn’t know JERICO, any chapter can be read independently. More details are available in the JERICO final reports and its intermediate reports; all are available on the JERICO web site (www.jerico-FP7.eu) as well as any deliverable. Each chapter will list referring JERICO documents. A small bibliographic list is available at the end of this deliverable.

Developing real option game models

By mixing concepts from both game theoretic analysis and real options theory, an investment decision in a competitive market can be seen as a ‘‘game’’ between firms, as firms implicitly take into account other firms’ reactions to their own investment actions. We review two decades of real option game models, suggesting which critical problems have been ‘‘solved’’ by considering game theory, and which significant problems have not been yet adequately addressed. We provide some insights on the plausible empirical applications, or shortfalls in applications to date, and suggest some promising avenues for future research.

On Advertisement Call Of The Poison Frog Ameerega Berohoka (dendrobatidae, Anura) From The Brazilian Cerrado.

The poison frog genus Ameerega (Dendrobatidae) currently contains 32 species. They are distributed from central Brazil into western Amazonia to the lower Andean versant. In addition, three trans-Andean species have been allocated to Ameerega (Andrade et al. 2013; Frost 2014). Ameerega berohoka (Vaz-Silva & Maciel 2011) was described based on specimens from central Brazil (type-locality: Arenópolis, GO) and it is assumed to occur in parts of western and southwestern state of Goiás (Frost 2014). More recently, Andrade et al. (2013) extended its distribution to the state of Mato Grosso. Here we re-describe the advertisement call of A. berohoka, providing additional information regarding its temporal structure and spectral traits. Our observations also consist of a new distribution record for this species to the state of Mato Grosso.

Association of polymorphisms at the ADIPOR1 regulatory region with type 2 diabetes and body mass index in a Brazilian population with European or African ancestry

Association studies between ADIPOR1 genetic variants and predisposition to type 2 diabetes (DM2) have provided contradictory results. We determined if two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP c.-8503G>A and SNP c.10225C>G) in regulatory regions of ADIPOR1 in 567 Brazilian individuals of European (EA; N = 443) or African (AfA; N = 124) ancestry from rural (quilombo remnants; N = 439) and urban (N = 567) areas. We detected a significant effect of ethnicity on the distribution of the allelic frequencies of both SNPs in these populations (EA: -8503A = 0.27; AfA: -8503A = 0.16; P = 0.001 and EA: 10225G = 0.35; AfA: 10225G = 0.51; P < 0.001). Neither of the polymorphisms were associated with DM2 in the case-control study in EA (SNP c.-8503G>A: DM2 group -8503A = 0.26; control group -8503A = 0.30; P = 0.14/SNP 10225C>G: DM2 group 10225G = 0.37; control group 10225G = 0.32; P = 0.40) and AfA populations (SNP c.-8503G>A: DM2 group -8503A = 0.16; control group -8503A = 0.15; P = 0.34/SNP 10225C>G: DM2 group 10225G = 0.51; control group 10225G = 0.52; P = 0.50). Similarly, none of the polymorphisms were associated with metabolic/anthropometric risk factors for DM2 in any of the three populations, except for HDL cholesterol, which was significantly higher in AfA heterozygotes (GC = 53.75 ± 17.26 mg/dL) than in homozygotes. We conclude that ADIPOR1 polymorphisms are unlikely to be major risk factors for DM2 or for metabolic/anthropometric measurements that represent risk factors for DM2 in populations of European and African ancestries.

Determination of the minimum value of the safety factor from geodesic Alfven eigenmodes in Joint European Torus

An analysis of the experimental conditions under which low-frequency (70-150 kHz) Alfven eigertmodes (AE) are excited during the monster sawtooth in Joint European Torus [F Romanelli et al, Proceedings of the 22nd IAEA Fusion Energy Conference, Geneva, Switzerland, 2008] is presented for the specific case of a discharge with ion cyclotron heating (5 MW) Using a simplified AE model for modes excited at the Alfven wave continuum maximum with geodesic corrections taken into account, the temporal evolution of the value of the safety factor q(0) at the magnetic axis is determined We describe a new scheme to determine the time variation of q(0) that works under conditions in which other standard diagnostics, such as the motional Stark effect do not give reliable results such as during a monster sawtooth [doi 10 1063/1 3494212]

Effect of sugarcane harvesting systems on soil carbon stocks in Brazil: an examination of existing data

Agricultural management practices that promote net carbon (C) accumulation in the soil have been considered as an important potential mitigation option to combat global warming. The change in the sugarcane harvesting system, to one which incorporates C into the soil from crop residues, is the focus of this work. The main objective was to assess and discuss the changes in soil organic C stocks caused by the conversion of burnt to unburnt sugarcane harvesting systems in Brazil, when considering the main soils and climates associated with this crop. For this purpose, a dataset was obtained from a literature review of soils under sugarcane in Brazil. Although not necessarily from experimental studies, only paired comparisons were examined, and for each site the dominant soil type, topography and climate were similar. The results show a mean annual C accumulation rate of 1.5 Mg ha-1 year-1 for the surface to 30-cm depth (0.73 and 2.04 Mg ha-1 year-1 for sandy and clay soils, respectively) caused by the conversion from a burnt to an unburnt sugarcane harvesting system. The findings suggest that soil should be included in future studies related to life cycle assessment and C footprint of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol.

Using economic instruments to address emissions from air transport in the European Union

Air transport has become a vital component of the global economy. However, greenhouse-gas emissions from this sector have a significant impact on global climate, being responsible for over 3.5% of all anthropogenic radiative forcing. Also, the accrued visibility of aircraft emissions greatly affects the public image of the industry. In this context, incentive-based regulations, in the form of price or quantity controls, can be envisaged as alternatives to mitigate these emissions. The use of environmental charges in air transport, and the inclusion of the sector in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), are considered under a range of scenarios. The impacts of these measures on demand are estimated, and results suggest that they are likely to be minimal-mainly due to the high willingness to pay for air transport. In particular, in the EU ETS scenario currently favoured by the EU, demand reductions are less than 2%. This may not be true in the longer run, for short trips, or if future caps become more stringent. Furthermore, given current estimates of the social Cost Of CO2 as well as typical EU ETS prices, supply-side abatement would be too costly to be encouraged by these policies in the short term. The magnitude of aviation CO2 emissions in the EU is estimated, both in physical and monetary terms; the results are consistent with Eurocontrol estimates and, for the EU-25, the total social cost of these emissions represents only 0.03% of the region`s GDP. It is concluded that the use of multisector policies, such as the EU ETS, is unsuitable for curbing emissions from air transport, and that stringent emission charges or an isolated ETS would be better instruments. However, the inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS has advantages under target-oriented post-2012 scenarios, such as policy-costs dilution, certainty in reductions, and flexibility in abatement allocation. This solution is also attractive to airlines, as it would improve their public image but require virtually no reduction of their own emissions, as they would be fully capable of passing on policy costs to their customers.