Electoral Volatility, Political Sophistication, Trust and Efficacy

In this article we investigate voter volatility and analyze the causes and motives of switching vote intentions. We test two main sets of variables linked to volatility in literature; political sophistication and ‘political (dis)satisfaction’. Results show that voters with low levels of political efficacy tend to switch more often, both within a campaign and between elections. In the analysis we differentiate between campaign volatility and inter-election volatility and by doing so show that the dynamics of a campaign have a profound impact on volatility. The campaign period is when the lowly sophisticated switch their vote intention. Those with higher levels of interest in politics have switched their intention before the campaign has started. The data for this analysis are from the three wave PartiRep Belgian Election Study (2009).

High prevalence of herpes simplex virus (HSV)- type 2 co-infection among HIV-positive women in Ukraine, but no increased HIV mother-to-child transmission risk.

BACKGROUND Over 3500 HIV-positive women give birth annually in Ukraine, a setting with high prevalence of sexually transmitted infections. Herpes simplex virus Type 2 (HSV-2) co-infection may increase HIV mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) risk. We explored factors associated with HSV-2 seropositivity among HIV-positive women in Ukraine, and its impact on HIV MTCT. METHODS Data on 1513 HIV-positive women enrolled in the Ukraine European Collaborative Study from 2007 to 2012 were analysed. Poisson and logistic regression models respectively were fit to investigate factors associated with HSV-2 seropositivity and HIV MTCT. RESULTS Median maternal age was 27 years (IQR 24-31), 53% (796/1513) had been diagnosed with HIV during their most recent pregnancy and 20% had a history of injecting drugs. Median antenatal CD4 count was 430 cells/mm(3) (IQR 290-580). Ninety-six percent had received antiretroviral therapy antenatally. HSV-2 seroprevalence was 68% (1026/1513). In adjusted analyses, factors associated with HSV-2 antibodies were history of pregnancy termination (APR 1.30 (95% CI 1.18-1.43) for ≥ 2 vs. 0), having an HIV-positive partner (APR 1.15 (95% CI 1.05-1.26) vs partner's HIV status unknown) and HCV seropositivity (APR 1.23 (95 % CI 1.13-1.35)). The overall HIV MTCT rate was 2.80% (95% CI 1.98-3.84); no increased HIV MTCT risk was detected among HSV-2 seropositive women after adjusting for known risk factors (AOR 1.43 (95% CI 0.54-3.77). CONCLUSION No increased risk of HIV MTCT was detected among the 68% of HIV-positive women with antibodies to HSV-2, in this population with an overall HIV MTCT rate of 2.8%. Markers of ongoing sexual risk among HIV-positive HSV-2 seronegative women indicate the importance of interventions to prevent primary HSV-2 infection during pregnancy in this high-risk group.

The short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in four Australian cities

Objective: To examine the short-term health effects of air pollution on daily mortality in four Australian cities (Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney), where more than 50% of Australians reside. Methods: The study used a similar protocol to APHEA2 (Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach) study and derived single-city and pooled estimates. Results: The results derived from the different approaches for the 1996-99 period showed consistent results for different statistical models used. There were significant effects on total mortality, (RR=1.0284 per 1 unit increase in nelphelometry [10(-4).m(-1)], RR=1.0011 per 1ppb increase in NO2), and on respiratory mortality (RR=1.0022 per 1ppb increase in O-2). No significant differences between cities were found, but the NO2 and particle effects may refer to the same impacts. Meta-analyses carried out for three cities yielded estimates for the increase in the daily total number of deaths of 0.2% (-0.8% to 1.2%) for a 10 mu g/m(3) increase in PM, concentration, and 0.9% (-0.7% to 2.5%) for a 10 mu g/m(3) increase in PM2.5 concentration. Conclusions: Air pollutants in Australian cities have significant effects on mortality.

Egyéni és kormányzati felelősség a vállalkozói kultúrában – Európában és Magyarországon = Individual and state responsibility in entrepreneurial culture – In Europe and Hungary

Tanulmányunkban a European Values Study adatai alapján megvizsgáljuk, miben tér el Európában a vállalkozók értékrendje más társadalmi csoportokétól, különös tekintettel az egyéni és a kormányzati felelősségvállalás megítélésére. Kísérletet teszünk a vállalkozói értékrend különböző szintjei – személyes, társadalmi és kormányzattal kapcsolatos értékrend – közötti összefüggések feltárására. Összehasonlítjuk, mennyire jellemzi a vállalkozói értékrend az egyes európai országok lakosságát, kiemelt figyelmet fordítva Magyarországra. Egy hazai vállalkozói adatbázis alapján megvizsgáljuk, hogy a magyar vállalkozók értékrendje eltér-e az európai átlagtól, továbbá milyen törésvonalak húzódnak a vállalkozói populáción belül az értékrend szempontjából. _____ Data from the European Values Study are used to examine what sets apart the normative views of entrepreneurs from those of other social groups in Europe about individual and state responsibility. Different levels of an individual’s value system are distinguished: personal, social and state-related values are differentiated. The interrelationships among these levels are explored. Using multivariate statistical analysis, we examine the prevalence of ‘entrepreneurial’ views in European countries, especially in Hungary. Relying on data from a survey of 300 Hungarian small entrepreneurs, we explore if their value system differs from the average value system of European entrepreneurs. Finally, we examine the factors social and economic factors that influence entrepreneurs’ views on personal and state responsibility.

La incidencia de los valores culturales en el voluntariado: el caso de Europa

La realidad del voluntariado es sumamente compleja hasta el punto de que resulta complicado definir y caracterizar el trabajo voluntario, dada la gran variedad de interpretaciones, motivaciones, variables sociodemográficas y aspectos culturales que configuran el perfil de los voluntarios. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la influencia conjunta de algunas variables sociodemográficas, así como de los valores culturales de índole secular o tradicional, sobre el perfil de los voluntarios en Europa. Además, se investiga qué variables orientan a los voluntarios hacia un determinado tipo de voluntariado u otro. Para ello se ha aplicado principalmente una metodología de regresión logística a partir de la información disponible en la European Value Study. Los resultados obtenidos ayudan a establecer una caracterización del voluntariado en Europa, y confirman la influencia de los valores culturales, en primer lugar, en la realización o no de trabajos de voluntariado, y en segundo lugar, en la elección que hacen estas personas del tipo de actividad con la que están comprometidos. Al analizar dos tipos de voluntariado de motivación supuestamente muy diferente, se concluye que existe un grupo de valores que influyen en ambos, aunque el sentido y la intensidad en la que lo hacen sea diferente; por otra parte, algunos valores tienen influencia o no en la realización de trabajos de voluntariado, dependiendo del tipo específico al que nos refiramos.

Political Sophistication and Vote Intention Switching

This article investigates the link between political sophistication and electoral volatility. Showing that there is disagreement in the literature on whether switching party preferences is related to low or high levels of political sophistication, it is then argued that the effect of sophistication on vote switching might differ depending on when switching is measured. The effect of timing on volatility is investigated by means of the Short-term panel of the 2009 German Longitudinal Election Study. Results indicate that timing indeed matters, while sophistication increases the probability of switching parties before the campaign, the effect of political sophistication becomes more negative as Election Day draws near.

Electoral Volatility, Political Sophistication, Trust and Efficacy

In this article we investigate voter volatility and analyze the causes and motives of switching vote intentions. We test two main sets of variables linked to volatility in literature; political sophistication and ‘political (dis)satisfaction’. Results show that voters with low levels of political efficacy tend to switch more often, both within a campaign and between elections. In the analysis we differentiate between campaign volatility and inter-election volatility and by doing so show that the dynamics of a campaign have a profound impact on volatility. The campaign period is when the lowly sophisticated switch their vote intention. Those with higher levels of interest in politics have switched their intention before the campaign has started. The data for this analysis are from the three wave PartiRep Belgian Election Study (2009).

The Politics of Gender Socialization

This manuscript is comprised of three papers that examine the far-reaching and often invisible political outcomes of gender role socialization in the United States. These papers focus primarily on two areas: political confidence amongst girls and women, and the effects of gender on survey measurement and data quality.

Chapter one focuses on political confidence, and the likelihood that women will run for political office. Women continue to be underrepresented at all levels of political leadership, and their lack of political ambition, relative to men, has been identified as a primary cause. In this paper, I explore the relationship between an individual's masculinity and femininity and her development of political ambition. Using original survey data from the 2012 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), I first empirically demonstrate that gender (masculinity/femininity) and sex (male/female) are unique elements of identity and, moreover, are both independently related to political ambition. I then explore the relevance of gender for the study of candidate emergence, testing whether and how masculinity and femininity might be related to political ambition are supported empirically. While the results suggest that masculinity is positively associated with the development of political ambition, the relationship between femininity and candidate emergence seems to be more complicated and not what prevailing stereotypes might lead us to expect. Moreover, while the relationship between masculinity and political ambition is the same for men and women, the relationship between femininity and political ambition is very different for women than it is for men. This study suggests that gender role socialization is highly related with both men's and women's desire to seek positions of political leadership.

Chapter two continues this exploration of gendered differences in the development of political ambition, this time exploring how social attractiveness and gendered perceptions of political leadership impact the desire to hold political office.Women are persistently underrepresented as candidates for public office and remain underrepresented at all levels of government in the United States. Previous literature suggests that the gendered ambition gap, gender socialization, insufficient recruitment, media scrutiny, family responsibilities, modern campaign strategies, and political opportunity structures all contribute to the gender imbalance in pools of officeholders and candidates. To explain women's reticence to run, scholars have offered explanations addressing structural, institutional, and individual-level factors that deter women from becoming candidates, especially for high positions in the U.S. government. This paper examines a previously unexplored factor: how dating and socialized norms of sexual attraction affect political ambition. This study investigates whether young, single, and heterosexual women's desire for male attention and fear of being perceived as unattractive or "too ambitious" present obstacles to running for office. The results of these experiments suggest that social expectations about gender, attraction and sexuality, and political office-holding may contribute to women's reticence to pursue political leadership. Chapter two is a co-authored work and represents the joint efforts of Laura Lazarus Frankel, Shauna Shames, and Nadia Farjood.

Chapter 3 bridges survey methodology and gender socialization, focusing on how interviewer sex affects survey measurement and data quality. Specifically, this paper examines whether and how matching interviewer and respondent sex affects panel attrition--respondents dropping out of the study after participating in the first wave. While the majority of research on interviewer effects suggests that matching interviewer and respondent characteristics (homophily) yields higher quality data, little work has examined whether this pattern holds true in the area of panel attrition. Using paradata from the General Social Survey (GSS), I explore this question. My analysis reveals that, despite its broader positive effects on data quality, matching interviewer and respondent sex increases likelihood to attrit. Interestingly, this phenomenon only emerges amongst male respondents. However, while assigning female interviewers to male respondents decreases their propensity to attrit, it also increases the likelihood of biased responses on gender related items. These conflicting outcomes represent a tradeoff for scholars and survey researchers, requiring careful consideration of mode, content, and study goals when designing surveys and/or analyzing survey data. The implications of these patterns and areas for further research are discussed.

Together, these papers illustrate two ways that gender norms are related to political outcomes: they contribute to patterns of candidate emergence and affect the measurement of political attitudes and behaviors.

Surgical Options After Fontan Failure

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this European multicenter study was to report surgical outcomes of Fontan takedown, Fontan conversion and heart transplantation (HTX) for failing Fontan patients in terms of all-cause mortality and (re-)HTX. METHODS: A retrospective international study was conducted by the European Congenital Heart Surgeons Association among 22 member centres. Outcome of surgery to address failing Fontan was collected in 225 patients among which were patients with Fontan takedown (n=38; 17%), Fontan conversion (n=137; 61%) or HTX (n=50; 22%). RESULTS: The most prevalent indication for failing Fontan surgery was arrhythmia (43.6%), but indications differed across the surgical groups (p<0.001). Fontan takedown was mostly performed in the early postoperative phase after Fontan completion, while Fontan conversion and HTX were mainly treatment options for late failure. Early (30 days) mortality was high for Fontan takedown (ie, 26%). Median follow-up was 5.9 years (range 0-23.7 years). The combined end point mortality/HTX was reached in 44.7% of the Fontan takedown patients, in 26.3% of the Fontan conversion patients and in 34.0% of the HTX patients, respectively (log rank p=0.08). Survival analysis showed no difference between Fontan conversion and HTX (p=0.13), but their ventricular function differed significantly. In patients who underwent Fontan conversion or HTX ventricular systolic dysfunction appeared to be the strongest predictor of mortality or (re-)HTX. Patients with valveless atriopulmonary connection (APC) take more advantage of Fontan conversion than patients with a valve-containing APC (p=0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Takedown surgery for failing Fontan is mostly performed in the early postoperative phase, with a high risk of mortality. There is no difference in survival after Fontan conversion or HTX.

Europejskie kampanie wyborcze w Polsce (2003 – 2004). Analiza politologiczna i medioznawcza

Lata 2003–2004 to okres zamykający etap przygotowawczy do przystąpienia Polski do Unii Europejskiej, w szczególności w zakresie dostosowywania polskich rozwiązań prawnych i instytucjonalnych do standardów unijnych. Dwa wydarzenia z tego czasu: referendum akcesyjne i pierwsze w Polsce wybory do Parlamentu Europejskiego stanowiły przy tym swoiste podsumowanie wieloletniej debaty publicznej nad kierunkami polskiej polityki zagranicznej oraz miejscem i rolą naszego kraju w ukształtowanych na początku lat 90. nowych warunkach geopolitycznych.

Don’t expect me to vote for you just because I like you, even if you do make me feel warm inside: a comparison of the validity of non-ipsative measures of party support

The inclusion of non-ipsative measures of party preference (in essence ratings for each of the parties of a political system) has become established practice in mass surveys conducted for election studies. They exist in different forms, known as thermometer ratings or feeling scores, likes and dislikes scores, or support propensities. Usually only one of these is included in a single survey, which makes it difficult to assess the relative merits of each. The questionnaire of the Irish National Election Study 2002 (INES2002) contained three different batteries of non-ipsative party preferences. This paper investigates some of the properties of these different indicators. We focus in particular on two phenomena. First, the relationship between non-ipsative preferences and the choices actually made on the ballot. In Ireland this relationship is more revealing than in most other countries owing to the electoral system (STV) which allows voters to cast multiple ordered votes for candidates from different parties. Second, we investigate the latent structure of each of the batteries of party preferences and the relationships between them. We conclude that the three instruments are not interchangeable, that they measure different orientations, and that one –the propensity to vote for a party– is by far preferable if the purpose of the study is the explanation of voters’ actual choice behaviour. This finding has important ramifications for the design of election study questionnaires.

Optimal choice of electoral preference data

Electoral researchers are so much accustomed to analyzing the choice of the single most preferred party as the left-hand side variable of their models of electoral behavior that they often ignore revealed preference data. Drawing on random utility theory, their models predict electoral behavior at the extensive margin of choice. Since the seminal work of Luce and others on individual choice behavior, however, many social science disciplines (consumer research, labor market research, travel demand, etc.) have extended their inventory of observed preference data with, for instance, multiple paired comparisons, complete or incomplete rankings, and multiple ratings. Eliciting (voter) preferences using these procedures and applying appropriate choice models is known to considerably increase the efficiency of estimates of causal factors in models of (electoral) behavior. In this paper, we demonstrate the efficiency gain when adding additional preference information to first preferences, up to full ranking data. We do so for multi-party systems of different sizes. We use simulation studies as well as empirical data from the 1972 German election study. Comparing the practical considerations for using ranking and single preference data results in suggestions for choice of measurement instruments in different multi-candidate and multi-party settings.

Efectos de una intervención educativa en la promoción de la actividad física, los conocimientos y comportamientos saludables para la prevención del cáncer colorrectal en jóvenes de una institución educativa secundaria en Bogotá Colombia

El cáncer colorrectal es un serio problema de salud pública a nivel mundial. Evidencias epidemiológicas han sugerido que al menos el 50% de la enfermedad puede ser prevenida mediante un estilo de vida saludable. Las intervenciones educativas surgen como una herramienta clave de movilización social para la prevención y han sido sugeridas desde las autoridades nacionales para el control del cáncer en el país.

Campaigning Against Europe? The Role of Euroskeptic Fringe and Mainstream Parties in the 2009 European Parliament Election

In this article, we analyze political parties' campaign communication during the 2009 European Parliamentary election in 11 countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the UK). We study which types of issues Euroskeptic fringe and Euroskeptic mainstream parties put on their campaign agendas and the kind and extent of EU opposition they voice. Further, we seek to understand whether Euroskeptic and non-Euroskeptic parties co-orient themselves toward each other within their national party systems with regard to their campaigns. To understand the role of Euroskeptic parties in the 2009 European Parliamentary elections, we draw on a systematic content analysis of parties' posters and televised campaign spots. Our results show that it is Euroskeptic parties at the edges of the political spectrum who discuss polity questions of EU integration and who most openly criticize the union. Principled opposition against the project of EU integration, however, can only be observed in the UK. Finally, we find indicators for co-orientation effects regarding the tone of EU mobilization: In national political environments where Euroskeptic parties strongly criticize the EU, pro-European parties at the same time publicly advance pro-EU positions.