Climate change in the Atlantic Ocean since the 1940's and the effects on the global climate

En aquest projecte s’ha estudiat la relació entre els canvis en les temperatures superficials de l’Oceà Atlàntic i els canvis en la circulació atmosfèrica en el segle XX. Concretament s’han analitzat dos períodes de estudi: el primer des del 1940 al 1960 i el segon des del 1980 fins al 2000. S’ha posat especial interès en les anomalies en les temperatures superficials del mar en la regió tropical de l’Oceà Atlàntic i la possible interconnexió amb els canvis climàtics observats i predits. Per a la realització de l’estudi s’han dut a terme una sèrie d’experiments utilitzant el model climàtic elaborat a la universitat d’UCLA (UCLA‐AGCM model). Els resultats obtinguts han estat analitzats en forma de mapes i figures per a cada variable d’estudi. També s’ha fet una comparació entre els resultats obtinguts i altres trobats en altres treballs publicats sobre el mateix tema de recerca. Els resultats obtinguts són molt amplis i poden tenir diverses interpretacions. Tot i així algunes de les conclusions a les quals s’ha arribat són: les diferències més significatives per a les variables estudiades i trobades a partir dels resultats obtinguts del model per als dos períodes d’estudi són en els mesos d’hivern i a la zona dels tròpics; concretament a parts del nord de sud Amèrica i a parts del nord d’Àfrica. S’han trobat també canvis significatius en els patrons de precipitació sobre aquestes mateixes zones. També s’ha observant un moviment cap al nord de la zona d’interconvergència tropical i pot ser degut a l’anòmal gradient trobat a la zona equatorial en les temperatures superficial de l’Oceà. Tot i així per a una definitiva discussió i conclusions sobre els resultats dels experiments, seria necessari un estudi més ampli i profund.

Predictors of weight change in sedentary smokers receiving a standard smoking cessation intervention

L'arrêt de la cigarette est généralement associé à une prise de poids. Celle-ci peut menacer la motivation des fumeurs à s'engager dans un processus d'arrêt du tabac et constitue un motif de rechute. L'ordre de grandeur et la cinétique de la prise de poids liée à une tentative d'arrêt chez les fumeurs pris en charge selon les recommandations cliniques actuelles est peu décrite dans la littérature médicale. Le but de cette étude était de quantifier cette prise de poids, d'en déterminer la cinétique ainsi que les facteurs qui l'influencent, chez des fumeurs sédentaires bénéficiant d'une intervention d'aide à l'arrêt du tabac individualisée, composée de conseils individuels et d'une substitution nicotinique associant plusieurs modes d'administration. Nous avons analysé des données récoltées durant un essai clinique randomisé contrôlé au cours duquel était étudié l'impact d'une activité physique modérée sur les taux d'arrêt du tabac après un an chez des fumeurs sédentaires. Nous avons modélisé l'évolution du poids de l'ensemble des participants au cours du temps, selon la technique statistique des « modèles mixtes longitudinaux ». En séparant les périodes d'abstinence de la cigarette de celles de rechute et de l'utilisation reportée de substituts nicotiniques. Cette approche nous a permis de prendre en compte chaque participant à l'étude, par opposition à un modèle plus simple qui séparerait les sujets abstinents de ceux qui rechutent à n'importe quel moment de la période de suivi. Nous avons également ajusté ces modèles pour l'âge, le sexe, le niveau de dépendance à la nicotine et le niveau de formation des participants. Parmi l'ensemble des participants, nous avons noté une augmentation du poids durant les trois premiers mois de l'intervention, suivie d'une stabilisation. Au total, la prise de poids moyenne s'est élevée à 3.3 kg pour les femmes et 3.9 kg pour les hommes. Durant les périodes d'abstinence, les caractéristiques suivantes étaient associées à la prise de poids : sexe masculin et forte dépendance nicotinique. Un âge supérieur à 43 ans était associé à une prise de poids également durant les périodes de rechute. Nous avons observé une tendance, non statistiquement significative, vers une réduction de la prise des poids avec l'utilisation de substituts nicotiniques. Notre étude apporte de nouvelles données sur l'évolution du poids chez les fumeurs sédentaires qui bénéficient d'une intervention d'aide à l'arrêt du tabac. Ils prennent donc du poids, de manière modérée et limitée aux premiers mois. Parmi eux, les hommes, les individus les plus dépendants à la nicotine et les plus âgés doivent s'attendre à une prise de poids supérieure à la moyenne.

Sex, politics and social change in the eighteenth and the nineteenth centuries: Evidence from the Swiss Alps

The 18th century "sexual revolution" can not simply be explained as a consequence of economic or institutional factors - industrialization, agricultural revolution, secularization or legal hindrances to marriages: the example of western Valais (Switzerland) shows that we have to deal with a complex configuration of factors The micro-historical approach reveals that in the 18th and 19th century sexuality - and above all illicit sexuality - was a highly subversive force which was considerably linked to political innovation and probably more generally to historical change. Non-marital sexuality was clearly tied to political dissent ant to innovative ways of behaviour, both among the social elites and the common people. This behaviour patterns influenced crucial evolutions in the social, cultural and economic history of the region.

Climatic change in northeastern Brazil: paleoparasitological data

Trichuris eggs were observed in Kerodon rupestris coprolites dated 9,000 years before present, collected in archeological sites of São Raimundo Nonato, northeastern Brazil. However, present day local rodents seem not to be infected by the parasite, suggesting its disappearence due to climatic changes.

Stability and change in party preferences.

This article analyses stability and volatility of party preferences using data from the Swiss Household-Panel (SHP), which, for the first time, allow studying transitions and stability of voters over several years in Switzerland. Analyses cover the years 1999- 2007 and systematically distinguish changes between party blocks and changes within party blocks. The first part looks at different patterns of change, which show relatively high volatility. The second part tests several theories on causes of such changes applying a multinomial random-effects model. Results show that party preferences stabilise with their duration and with age and that the electoral cycle, political sophistication, socio-structural predispositions, the household-context as well as party size and the number of parties each explain part of electoral volatility. Different results for withinand between party-block changes underlie the importance of that differentiation.

Change in individual growth rate and its link to gill-net fishing in two sympatric whitefish species

Size-selective fishing is expected to affect traits such as individual growth rate, but the relationship between the fishery-linked selection differentials and the corresponding phenotypic changes is not well understood. We analysed a 25-year monitoring survey of sympatric populations of the two Alpine whitefish Coregonus albellus and C. fatioi. We determined the fishing-induced selection differentials on growth rates, the actual change of growth rates over time, and potential indicators of reproductive strategies that may change over time. We found marked declines in adult growth rate and significant selection differentials that may partly explain the observed declines. However, when comparing the two sympatric species, the selection differentials on adult growth were stronger in C. albellus while the decline in adult growth rate seemed more pronounced in C. fatioi. Moreover, the selection differential on juvenile growth was significant in C. albellus but not in C. fatioi, while a significant reduction in juvenile growth over the last 25 years was only found in C. fatioi. Our results suggest that size-selective fishing affects the genetics for individual growth in these whitefish, and that the link between selection differentials and phenotypic changes is influenced by species-specific factors.

Dynamics of a paleoecosystem reef associated with oceanic change in carbonate sedimentary regime and carbon cycling (Oxfordian, Swiss Jura)

Herein we report an analysis of an Oxfordian (Upper Jurassic) paleoreef located in the Swiss Jura Mountains. The paleoreef is located in a Middle Oxfordian transitional interval in which sedimentation switched from marl-dominated to carbonate-dominated deposits. The paleoecosystem is composed of four successive fossil communities characterized by microsolenid corals and organisms that specialized in suspension feeding. Carbon isotopes measured from echinoid spine carbonates exhibit a positive trend from similar to 1.0 parts per thousand to 2.5 parts per thousand in delta(13)C values from the base to the top of the paleoreef. Comparison of delta(13)C curves with organic matter and belemnites shows different patterns not compatible with a global variation of the carbon cycle. Similar fossil assemblages and stratigraphic sequences identical in age are found along the continental margin of the Tethys-Atlantic Ocean. This biolithostratigraphic succession corresponds to increasing delta(13)C values of marine and biogenic carbonates, to the transition from marl-dominated to carbonate-dominated deposits, and to the development of carbonate platforms, which together suggest a change in the carbon cycling regime within the Tethys-Atlantic Ocean system.

Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size

Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.

Facilitation Process Concerning the Difficulties in Implementing A Vision For Change in the South Tipperary and Carlow Kilkenny Catchment Area Mental Health Service

Facilitation Process Concerning the Difficulties in Implementing A Vision For Change in the South Tipperary and Carlow Kilkenny Catchment Area Mental Health Service Click here to download PDF 4.27MB

A Change in the Epidemiology of Infections Due to Extended-Spectrum b-Lactamase–Producing Organisms

Extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs) form a heterogeneous group that share the property of hydrolytic activity against the oxyimino-β-lactams while remaining susceptible to inhibition by β-lactamase inhibitors, such as clavulanic acid. From a clinical point of view, they are important because they confer resistance to penicillins, aztreonam, and cephalosporins, and ESBL-producing organisms are typically also resistant to aminoglycosides, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and quinolones [1]. Until recently, the main problem posed by ESBLs was related to nosocomial outbreaks caused by ESBL-producing Klebsiella species. These outbreaks are usually clonal, the strains are mainly spread through cross-transmission, and the risk factors are similar to those found for other multidrug-resistant nosocomial pathogens [2]. In Europe and the United States, most ESBL-producing Klebsiella isolates harbored enzymes belonging to the TEM and SHV families [3]. Detection of colonized patients by performing surveillance cultures within affected units, isolation precautions for colonized patients, and restriction of oxyimino-β-lactam use are frequently useful for the control of these outbreaks [1]. There is no evidence that hospital-acquired ESBL-producing klebsiellae are decreasing in importance—in fact, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that 20.6% of Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates from United States intensive care units in 2003 were probable producers of ESBL [4]. This represented a 47% increase, compared with the preceding 5 years. However, during the last few years, an impressive increase in the number of ESBL-producing Escherichia coli (and, less frequently, other Enterobacteriaceae) is being described in several parts of the world [5–8]. This emergent phenomenon shows some differences from the problem posed by Klebsiella species; many of these ESBL-producing E. coli are isolated …

Quantification of the genetic change in the transition of Rhodnius pallescens Barber, 1932 (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) from field to laboratory

Previous studies have reported genetic differences between wild-caught sylvatic, domestic and laboratory pop-ulations of several Triatominae species. The differences between sylvatic and laboratory colonies parallel are similar to the differences observed between sylvatic and domestic populations. Laboratory colonies are frequently used as references for field populations, but the consequences of founder events on the genetic makeup of laboratory or domestic populations are rarely quantified. Our goal was to quantify the genetic change in Rhodnius pallescens populations artificially submitted to founder effects via laboratory colonization. We compared the genetic makeup of two sylvatic populations and their laboratory descendants using a panel of 10 microsatellite markers. Both sylvatic populations were initially collected from palm trees, but the colonies differed in the number of founder insects and amount of time kept in the laboratory. We evaluated allelic polymorphism, differences between expected and observed heterozygosity, estimates of population differentiation (Fst) and inbreeding (Fis, Fit) and cluster analyses based on Nei's distances. We found a unique genetic structure for each sample population, with significant differentiation between the field insects and each of the laboratory generations. These analyses showed strong founder effects and showed that genetic drift had led to a genetic equilibrium over several generations of isolation. Our results suggest that laboratory colonies of R. pallescens have a different genetic structure than their wild relatives and similar processes likely affect other Triatominae laboratory stocks.