954 resultados para Disease evolution model
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We present the first 3D simulation of the last minutes of oxygen shell burning in an 18 solar mass supernova progenitor up to the onset of core collapse. A moving inner boundary is used to accurately model the contraction of the silicon and iron core according to a 1D stellar evolution model with a self-consistent treatment of core deleptonization and nuclear quasi-equilibrium. The simulation covers the full solid angle to allow the emergence of large-scale convective modes. Due to core contraction and the concomitant acceleration of nuclear burning, the convective Mach number increases to ~0.1 at collapse, and an l=2 mode emerges shortly before the end of the simulation. Aside from a growth of the oxygen shell from 0.51 to 0.56 solar masses due to entrainment from the carbon shell, the convective flow is reasonably well described by mixing length theory, and the dominant scales are compatible with estimates from linear stability analysis. We deduce that artificial changes in the physics, such as accelerated core contraction, can have precarious consequences for the state of convection at collapse. We argue that scaling laws for the convective velocities and eddy sizes furnish good estimates for the state of shell convection at collapse and develop a simple analytic theory for the impact of convective seed perturbations on shock revival in the ensuing supernova. We predict a reduction of the critical luminosity for explosion by 12--24% due to seed asphericities for our 3D progenitor model relative to the case without large seed perturbations.
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Le glaucome est un groupe hétérogène de maladies qui sont caractérisées par l’apoptose des cellules ganglionnaires de la rétine et la dégénérescence progressive du nerf optique. Il s’agit de la première cause de cécité irréversible, qui touche environ 60 millions de personnes dans le monde. Sa forme la plus commune est le glaucome à angle ouvert (GAO), un trouble polygénique causé principalement par une prédisposition génétique, en interaction avec d’autres facteurs de risque tels que l’âge et la pression intraoculaire élevée (PIO). Le GAO est une maladie génétique complexe, bien que certaines formes sévères sont autosomiques dominantes. Dix-sept loci ont été liés à la maladie et acceptés par la « Human Genome Organisation » (HUGO) et cinq gènes ont été identifiés à ces loci (MYOC, OPTN, WDR36, NTF4, ASB10). Récemment, des études d’association sur l’ensemble du génome ont identifié plus de 20 facteurs de risque fréquents, avec des effets relativement faibles. Depuis plus de 50 ans, notre équipe étudie 749 membres de la grande famille canadienne-française CA où la mutation MYOCK423E cause une forme autosomale dominante de GAO dont l’âge de début est fortement variable. Premièrement, il a été montré que cette variabilité de l’âge de début de l’hypertension intraoculaire possède une importante composante génétique causée par au moins un gène modificateur. Ce modificateur interagit avec la mutation primaire et altère la sévérité du glaucome chez les porteurs de MYOCK423E. Un gène modificateur candidat WDR36 a été génotypé dans 2 grandes familles CA et BV. Les porteurs de variations non-synonymes de WDR36 ainsi que de MYOCK423E de la famille CA ont montré une tendance à développer la maladie plus jeune. Un outil de forage de données a été développé pour représenter des informations connues relatives à la maladie et faciliter la priorisation des gènes candidats. Cet outil a été appliqué avec succès à la dépression bipolaire et au glaucome. La suite du projet consiste à finaliser un balayage de génome sur la famille CA et à séquencer les loci afin d’identifier les variations modificatrices du glaucome. Éventuellement, ces variations permettront d’identifier les individus dont le glaucome risque d’être plus agressif.
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Axial melt lenses sandwiched between the lower oceanic crust and the sheeted dike sequences at fast-spreading mid-ocean ridges are assumed to be the major magma source of oceanic crust accretion. According to the widely discussed "gabbro glacier'' model, the formation of the lower oceanic crust requires efficient cooling of the axial melt lens, leading to partial crystallization and crystal-melt mush subsiding down to lower crust. These processes are believed to be controlled by periodical magma replenishment and hydrothermal circulation above the melt lens. Here we quantify the cooling rate above melt lens using chemical zoning of plagioclase from hornfelsic recrystallized sheeted dikes drilled from the East Pacific at the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Hole 1256D. Weestimate the cooling rate using a forward modelling approach based on CaAl-NaSi interdiffusion in plagioclase. The results show that cooling from the peak thermal overprint at 1000-10506 degrees C to 6006 degrees C are yielded within about 10-30 years as a result of hydrothermal circulation above melt lens during magma starvation. The estimated rapid hydrothermal cooling explains how the effective heat extraction from melt lens is achieved at fast-spreading mid-ocean ridges.
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Le site routier expérimental de Beaver Creek (62º 20’ 20’’ N – 140º 50’ 10’’ O) est sis sur la moraine de Beaver Creek pré datant le Dernier Maximum Glaciaire. Dans un périmètre d’un kilomètre carré, son relief, sa végétation, son sol et sa cryostratigraphie ont été étudiés avec une perspective géosystémique, afin d’en détailler la catena et sa structure. Ensuite, la cryostratigraphie a été interprétée pour suggérer un modèle d’évolution du paysage. Enfin, les changements récents y ont été intégrés en vue d’actualiser la tendance évolutive du géosystème. Il ressort de cet ouvrage que la durabilité du pergélisol est fortement appuyée par la présence des milieux humides dans les replats. Quelques affleurements de la moraine sont toujours visibles, quoique faiblement exprimés. Ils contiennent peu de glace et leur teneur en matière organique est mince. Quant aux dépressions, elles sont peu profondes et étendues. Non seulement elles ont hérité des sédiments érodés des crêtes, mais elles ont aussi fixé une quantité importante de glace et de matière organique par le truchement d’un pergélisol syngénétique (>15 m) généré par le climat et protégé par l’écosystème. Au moins un évènement de thermo-érosion est survenu avant le dernier stade d’aggradation syngénétique (Holocène), mais il n’a été que partiel. L’actuel réchauffement climatique menace d’engager un autre épisode de dégradation à l’échelle du bassin versant. Contrairement au changement climatique, l’utilisation du territoire provoque déjà la dégradation du pergélisol, mais de manière localisée seulement.
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Las enfermedades raras o huérfanas corresponden a aquellas con baja prevalencia en la población, y en varios países tienen una definición distinta de acuerdo con el número de pacientes que afectan en la población. La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS), las define como un trastorno que afecta de 650 a 1.000 personas por millón de habitantes, de las que se han identificado alrededor de 7.000. En Colombia su prevalencia es menor de 1 por cada 5.000 personas y comprenden: las enfermedades raras, las ultra-huérfanas y las olvidadas. Los pacientes con este tipo de enfermedades imponen retos a los sistemas sanitarios, pues si bien afectan a un bajo porcentaje de la población, su atención implica una alta carga económica por los costos que involucra su atención, la complejidad en su diagnóstico, tratamiento, seguimiento y rehabilitación. El abordaje de las enfermedades raras requiere un manejo interdisciplinar e intersectorial, lo que implica la organización de cada actor del sistema sanitario para su manejo a través de un modelo que abraque las dinámicas posibles entre ellos y las competencias de cada uno. Por lo anterior, y teniendo en cuenta la necesidad de formular políticas sanitarias específicas para la gestión de estas enfermedades, el presente trabajo presenta una aproximación a la formulación de un modelo de gestión para la atención integral de pacientes con enfermedades raras en Colombia. Esta investigación describe los distintos elementos y características de los modelos de gestión clínica y de las enfermedades raras a través de una revisión de literatura, en la que se incluye la descripción de los distintos actores del Sistema de Salud Colombiano, relacionados con la atención integral de estos pacientes para la documentación de un modelo de gestión integral.
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This study was undertaken to test whether the structural remodelling of pulmonary parenchyma can be sequentially altered in a model and method that demonstrate the progression of the disease and result in remodelling within the lungs that is typical of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Three groups of mice were studied: (i) animals that received 3-5-di-tert-butyl-4-hydroxytoluene (BHT) and were killed after 2 weeks (early BHT = 9); (ii) animals that received BHT and were killed after 4 weeks (late BHT = 11); (iii) animals that received corn oil solution (control = 10). The mice were placed in a ventilated Plexiglas chamber with a mixture of pure humidified oxygen and compressed air. Lung histological sections underwent haematoxylin-eosin, immunohistochemistry (epithelial, endothelial and immune cells) and specific staining (collagen/elastic fibres) methods for morphometric analysis. When compared with the control group, early BHT and late BHT groups showed significant decrease of type II pneumocytes, lower vascular density in both and higher endothelial activity. CD4 was increased in late BHT compared with early and control groups, while CD8, macrophage and neutrophil cells were more prominent only in early BHT. The collagenous fibre density were significantly higher only in late BHT, whereas elastic fibre content in late BHT was lower than that in control group. We conclude that the BHT experimental model is pathologically very similar to human usual interstitial pneumonia. This feature is important in the identification of animal models of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis that can accurately reflect the pathogenesis and progression of the human disease.
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The t(8;21) chromosomal translocation activates aberrant expression of the AML1-ETO (AE) fusion protein and is commonly associated with core binding factor acute myeloid leukaemia (CBF AML). Combining a conditional mouse model that closely resembles the slow evolution and the mosaic AE expression pattern of human t(8;21) CBF AML with global transcriptome sequencing, we find that disease progression was characterized by two principal pathogenic mechanisms. Initially, AE expression modified the lineage potential of haematopoietic stem cells (HSCs), resulting in the selective expansion of the myeloid compartment at the expense of normal erythro- and lymphopoiesis. This lineage skewing was followed by a second substantial rewiring of transcriptional networks occurring in the trajectory to manifest leukaemia. We also find that both HSC and lineage-restricted granulocyte macrophage progenitors (GMPs) acquired leukaemic stem cell (LSC) potential being capable of initiating and maintaining the disease. Finally, our data demonstrate that long-term expression of AE induces an indolent myeloproliferative disease (MPD)-like myeloid leukaemia phenotype with complete penetrance and that acute inactivation of AE function is a potential novel therapeutic option.
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BACKGROUND: We sought to investigate the relationship between infarct and dyssynchrony post- myocardial infarct (MI), in a porcine model. Mechanical dyssynchrony post-MI is associated with left ventricular (LV) remodeling and increased mortality. METHODS: Cine, gadolinium-contrast, and tagged cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) were performed pre-MI, 9 ± 2 days (early post-MI), and 33 ± 10 days (late post-MI) post-MI in 6 pigs to characterize cardiac morphology, location and extent of MI, and regional mechanics. LV mechanics were assessed by circumferential strain (eC). Electro-anatomic mapping (EAM) was performed within 24 hrs of CMR and prior to sacrifice. RESULTS: Mean infarct size was 21 ± 4% of LV volume with evidence of post-MI remodeling. Global eC significantly decreased post MI (-27 ± 1.6% vs. -18 ± 2.5% (early) and -17 ± 2.7% (late), p < 0.0001) with no significant change in peri-MI and MI segments between early and late time-points. Time to peak strain (TTP) was significantly longer in MI, compared to normal and peri-MI segments, both early (440 ± 40 ms vs. 329 ± 40 ms and 332 ± 36 ms, respectively; p = 0.0002) and late post-MI (442 ± 63 ms vs. 321 ± 40 ms and 355 ± 61 ms, respectively; p = 0.012). The standard deviation of TTP in 16 segments (SD16) significantly increased post-MI: 28 ± 7 ms to 50 ± 10 ms (early, p = 0.012) to 54 ± 19 ms (late, p = 0.004), with no change between early and late post-MI time-points (p = 0.56). TTP was not related to reduction of segmental contractility. EAM revealed late electrical activation and greatly diminished conduction velocity in the infarct (5.7 ± 2.4 cm/s), when compared to peri-infarct (18.7 ± 10.3 cm/s) and remote myocardium (39 ± 20.5 cm/s). CONCLUSIONS: Mechanical dyssynchrony occurs early after MI and is the result of delayed electrical and mechanical activation in the infarct.
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The genus Silene, studied by Darwin, Mendel and other early scientists, is re-emerging as a system for studying interrelated questions in ecology, evolution and developmental biology. These questions include sex chromosome evolution, epigenetic control of sex expression, genomic conflict and speciation. Its well-studied interactions with the pathogen Microbotryum has made Silene a model for the evolution and dynamics of disease in natural systems, and its interactions with herbivores have increased our understanding of multi-trophic ecological processes and the evolution of invasiveness. Molecular tools are now providing new approaches to many of these classical yet unresolved problems, and new progress is being made through combining phylogenetic, genomic and molecular evolutionary studies with ecological and phenotypic data.
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A size-structured plant population model is developed to study the evolution of pathogen-induced leaf shedding under various environmental conditions. The evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) of the leaf shedding rate is determined for two scenarios: i) a constant leaf shedding strategy and ii) an infection load driven leaf shedding strategy. The model predicts that ESS leaf shedding rates increase with nutrient availability. No effect of plant density on the ESS leaf shedding rate is found even though disease severity increases with plant density. When auto-infection, that is increased infection due to spores produced on the plant itself, plays a key role in further disease increase on the plant, shedding leaves removes disease that would otherwise contribute to disease increase on the plant itself. Consequently leaf shedding responses to infections may evolve. When external infection, that is infection due to immigrant spores, is the key determinant, shedding a leaf does not reduce the force of infection on the leaf shedding plant. In this case leaf shedding will not evolve. Under a low external disease pressure adopting an infection driven leaf shedding strategy is more efficient than adopting a constant leaf shedding strategy, since a plant adopting an infection driven leaf shedding strategy does not shed any leaves in the absence of infection, even when leaf shedding rates are high. A plant adopting a constant leaf shedding rate sheds the same amount of leaves regardless of the presence of infection. Based on the results we develop two hypotheses that can be tested if the appropriate plant material is available.
Resumo:
A size-structured plant population model is developed to study the evolution of pathogen-induced leaf shedding under various environmental conditions. The evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) of the leaf shedding rate is determined for two scenarios: i) a constant leaf shedding strategy and ii) an infection load driven leaf shedding strategy. The model predicts that ESS leaf shedding rates increase with nutrient availability. No effect of plant density on the ESS leaf shedding rate is found even though disease severity increases with plant density. When auto-infection, that is increased infection due to spores produced on the plant itself, plays a key role in further disease increase on the plant, shedding leaves removes disease that would otherwise contribute to disease increase on the plant itself. Consequently leaf shedding responses to infections may evolve. When external infection, that is infection due to immigrant spores, is the key determinant, shedding a leaf does not reduce the force of infection on the leaf shedding plant. In this case leaf shedding will not evolve. Under a low external disease pressure adopting an infection driven leaf shedding strategy is more efficient than adopting a constant leaf shedding strategy, since a plant adopting an infection driven leaf shedding strategy does not shed any leaves in the absence of infection, even when leaf shedding rates are high. A plant adopting a constant leaf shedding rate sheds the same amount of leaves regardless of the presence of infection. Based on the results we develop two hypotheses that can be tested if the appropriate plant material is available.
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We employ the approach of stochastic dynamics to describe the dissemination of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, and we focus our attention on the characterization of the threshold of the epidemic. The coexistence space comprises two representative spatial structures for both human and mosquito populations. The human population has its evolution described by a process that is similar to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) dynamics. The population of mosquitoes follows a dynamic of the type of the Susceptible Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. The coexistence space is a bipartite lattice constituted by two structures representing the human and mosquito populations. We develop a truncation scheme to solve the evolution equations for the densities and the two-site correlations from which we get the threshold of the disease and the reproductive ratio. We present a precise deØnition of the reproductive ratio which reveals the importance of the correlations developed in the early stage of the disease. According to our deØnition, the reproductive rate is directed related to the conditional probability of the occurrence of a susceptible human (mosquito) given the presence in the neighborhood of an infected mosquito (human). The threshold of the epidemic as well as the phase transition between the epidemic and the non-epidemic states are also obtained by performing Monte Carlo simulations. References: [1] David R. de Souza, T^ania Tom∂e, , Suani R. T. Pinho, Florisneide R. Barreto and M∂ario J. de Oliveira, Phys. Rev. E 87, 012709 (2013). [2] D. R. de Souza, T. Tom∂e and R. M. ZiÆ, J. Stat. Mech. P03006 (2011).
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Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.
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We study a reaction–diffusion mathematical model for the evolution of atherosclerosis as an inflammation process by combining analytical tools with computer-intensive numerical calculations. The computational work involved the calculation of more than sixty thousand solutions of the full reaction–diffusion system and lead to the complete characterisation of the ωω-limit for every initial condition. Qualitative properties of the solution are rigorously proved, some of them hinted at by the numerical study
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The objective of the present study was to determine whether lesion of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) promoted by N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) would rescue nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons after unilateral 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) injection into the medial forebrain bundle (MFB). Initially, 16 mg 6-OHDA (6-OHDA group) or vehicle (artificial cerebrospinal fluid - aCSF; Sham group) was infused into the right MFB of adult male Wistar rats. Fifteen days after surgery, the 6-OHDA and SHAM groups were randomly subdivided and received ipsilateral injection of either 60 mM NMDA or aCSF in the right STN. Additionally, a control group was not submitted to stereotaxic surgery. Five groups of rats were studied: 6-OHDA/NMDA, 6-OHDA/Sham, Sham/NMDA, Sham/Sham, and Control. Fourteen days after injection of 6-OHDA, rats were submitted to the rotational test induced by apomorphine (0.1 mg/kg, ip) and to the open-field test. The same tests were performed again 14 days after NMDA-induced lesion of the STN. The STN lesion reduced the contralateral turns induced by apomorphine and blocked the progression of motor impairment in the open-field test in 6-OHDA-treated rats. However, lesion of the STN did not prevent the reduction of striatal concentrations of dopamine and metabolites or the number of nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons after 6-OHDA lesion. Therefore, STN lesion is able to reverse motor deficits after severe 6-OHDA-induced lesion of the nigrostriatal pathway, but does not protect or rescue dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta.