Hybrid deterministic-statistical modelling of built-up structures

When used correctly, Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) can provide good predictions of high frequency vibration levels in built-up structures. Unfortunately, the assumptions that underlie SEA break down as the frequency of excitation is reduced, and the method does not yield accurate predictions at "medium" frequencies (and neither does the Finite Element Method, which is limited to low frequencies). A basic problem is that parts of the system have a short wavelength of deformation and meet the requirements of SEA, while other parts of the system do not - this is often referred to as the "mid-frequency" problem, and there is a broad class of mid-frequency vibration problems that are of great concern to industry. In this paper, a coupled deterministic-statistical approach referred to as the Hybrid Method (Shorter & Langley, 2004) is briefly described, and some results that demonstrate how the method overcomes the aforementioned difficulties are presented.

Deterministic cold cathode electron emission from carbon nanofibre arrays.

The ability to accurately design carbon nanofibre (CN) field emitters with predictable electron emission characteristics will enable their use as electron sources in various applications such as microwave amplifiers, electron microscopy, parallel beam electron lithography and advanced Xray sources. Here, highly uniform CN arrays of controlled diameter, pitch and length were fabricated using plasma enhanced chemical vapour deposition and their individual emission characteristics and field enhancement factors were probed using scanning anode field emission mapping. For a pitch of 10 µm and a CN length of 5 µm, the directly measured enhancement factors of individual CNs was 242, which was in excellent agreement with conventional geometry estimates (240). We show here direct empirical evidence that in regular arrays of vertically aligned CNs the overall enhancement factor is reduced when the pitch between emitters is less than half the emitter height, in accordance to our electrostatic simulations. Individual emitters showed narrow Gaussian-like field enhancement distributions, in excellent agreement with electric field simulations.

Deterministic Column-Based Matrix Decomposition

In this paper, we propose a deterministic column-based matrix decomposition method. Conventional column-based matrix decomposition (CX) computes the columns by randomly sampling columns of the data matrix. Instead, the newly proposed method (termed as CX_D) selects columns in a deterministic manner, which well approximates singular value decomposition. The experimental results well demonstrate the power and the advantages of the proposed method upon three real-world data sets.

A methodology of characterizing status and trend of land changes in oases: A case study of Sangong River watershed, Xinjiang, China

National Natural Science Foundation of China [40471134]; program of Lights of the West China by the Chinese Academy of Science

Synthesis of bis [bis (tert-butylcyclopentadienyl) neodymium chloride] and structural trend of bis[bis(tertbutylcyclopentadienyl) lanthanide chloride]

The reaction of NdCl3 with 2 equiv. of Na-(BuC5H4)-C-t in THF(tetrahydrofuran) gives blue crystals [((BUC5H4)-C-t)(2)NdCl](2), C36H52Cl2Nd2(M-r = 844.11) Which crystallizes in the triclinic system with space group . The crystal data are a=11.978 (1), b=12.671(4), c=12.706(2)Angstrom, alpha=105.47(2), beta=99.38(1)? gamma=93.15 (2)degrees, V=1825 (3) Angstrom(3), Z = 2 , D-c = 1.53g/cm(3), F(000) = 450 , T = 298K , lambda(MoK alpha) = 0.71069 Angstrom, , mu = 14.97cm(-1). Final R = 0.0390, R-w = 0.0376 for 4329 reflections with I greater than or equal to 3 sigma(I-o). The molecule has a dimer structure with two certrosymmetrical chlorine bridges. The structural trend of these analogous complexes is discussed.

Warming trend in northern East China Sea in recent four decades

Global warming has become a notable trend especially since an abrupt climate change in 1976. Response of the East China Sea (ECS) to the global warming trend, however, is not well understood because of sparse long-term observation. In this paper, hydrographic observation data of 1957-1996 are collected and reviewed to study climatological variability in northern ECS. Significant warming trends are found in both summer and winter. In summer, the average SST is about 0.46A degrees C higher during the period of 1977-1996 than that of 1957-1976, and the Taiwan Warm Current Water (TWCW) was strengthened. In winter, despite of the cooling effect in the coastal areas adjacent to the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Estuary (CRE), the average SST increase was about 0.53A degrees C during the same period. The causes of this SST warming up in summer are different from in winter. The warming trend and intensification of the TWCW in summer were primarily influenced by the strengthening of the Kuroshio transport, while the warming in winter was mainly induced by the variability of the climate system.

地理信息系统支持下的滑坡灾害空间分析预测-以云南小江流域为例

As a typical geological and environmental hazard, landslide has been causing more and more property and life losses. However, to predict its accurate occurring time is very difficult or even impossible due to landslide's complex nature. It has been realized that it is not a good solution to spend a lot of money to treat with and prevent landslide. The research trend is to study landslide's spatial distribution and predict its potential hazard zone under certain region and certain conditions. GIS(Geographical Information System) is a power tools for data management, spatial analysis based on reasonable spatial models and visualization. It is new and potential study field to do landslide hazard analysis and prediction based on GIS. This paper systematically studies the theory and methods for GIS based landslide hazard analysis. On the basis of project "Mountainous hazard study-landslide and debris flows" supported by Chinese Academy of Sciences and the former study foundation, this paper carries out model research, application, verification and model result analysis. The occurrence of landslide has its triggering factors. Landslide has its special landform and topographical feature which can be identify from field work and remote sensing image (aerial photo). Historical record of landslide is the key to predict the future behaviors of landslide. These are bases for landslide spatial data base construction. Based on the plenty of literatures reviews, the concept framework of model integration and unit combinations is formed. Two types of model, CF multiple regression model and landslide stability and hydrological distribution coupled model are bought forward. CF multiple regression model comes form statistics and possibility theory based on data. Data itself contains the uncertainty and random nature of landslide hazard, so it can be seen as a good method to study and understand landslide's complex feature and mechanics. CF multiple regression model integrates CF (landslide Certainty Factor) and multiple regression prediction model. CF can easily treat with the problems of data quantifying and combination of heteroecious data types. The combination of CF can assist to determine key landslide triggering factors which are then inputted into multiple regression model. CF regression model can provide better prediction results than traditional model. The process of landslide can be described and modeled by suitable physical and mechanical model. Landslide stability and hydrological distribution coupled model is such a physical deterministic model that can be easily used for landslide hazard analysis and prediction. It couples the general limit equilibrium method and hydrological distribution model based on DEM, and can be used as a effective approach to predict the occurrence of landslide under different precipitation conditions as well as landslide mechanics research. It can not only explain pre-existed landslides, but also predict the potential hazard region with environmental conditions changes. Finally, this paper carries out landslide hazard analysis and prediction in Yunnan Xiaojiang watershed, including landslide hazard sensitivity analysis and regression prediction model based on selected key factors, determining the relationship between landslide occurrence possibility and triggering factors. The result of landslide hazard analysis and prediction by coupled model is discussed in details. On the basis of model verification and validation, the modeling results are showing high accuracy and good applying potential in landslide research.

Dynamical Instabilities and Deterministic Chaos in Ballistic Electron Motion in Semiconductor Superlattices

We consider the motion of ballistic electrons within a superlattice miniband under the influence of an alternating electric field. We show that the interaction of electrons with the self-consistent electromagnetic field generated by the electron current may lead to the transition from regular to chaotic dynamics. We estimate the conditions for the experimental observation of this deterministic chaos and discuss the similarities of the superlattice system with the other condensed matter and quantum optical systems.

Deterministic Computations Whose History Is Independent of the Order of Asynchronous Updating

Consider a network of processors (sites) in which each site x has a finite set N(x) of neighbors. There is a transition function f that for each site x computes the next state ξ(x) from the states in N(x). But these transitions (updates) are applied in arbitrary order, one or many at a time. If the state of site x at time t is η(x; t) then let us define the sequence ζ(x; 0); ζ(x; 1), ... by taking the sequence η(x; 0),η(x; 1), ... , and deleting each repetition, i.e. each element equal to the preceding one. The function f is said to have invariant histories if the sequence ζ(x; i), (while it lasts, in case it is finite) depends only on the initial configuration, not on the order of updates. This paper shows that though the invariant history property is typically undecidable, there is a useful simple sufficient condition, called commutativity: For any configuration, for any pair x; y of neighbors, if the updating would change both ξ(x) and ξ(y) then the result of updating first x and then y is the same as the result of doing this in the reverse order. This fact is derivable from known results on the confluence of term-rewriting systems but the self-contained proof given here may be justifiable.

Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Differential and numerical models of hysteretic systems with stochastic and deterministic inputs

Many deterministic models with hysteresis have been developed in the areas of economics, finance, terrestrial hydrology and biology. These models lack any stochastic element which can often have a strong effect in these areas. In this work stochastically driven closed loop systems with hysteresis type memory are studied. This type of system is presented as a possible stochastic counterpart to deterministic models in the areas of economics, finance, terrestrial hydrology and biology. Some price dynamics models are presented as a motivation for the development of this type of model. Numerical schemes for solving this class of stochastic differential equation are developed in order to examine the prototype models presented. As a means of further testing the developed numerical schemes, numerical examination is made of the behaviour near equilibrium of coupled ordinary differential equations where the time derivative of the Preisach operator is included in one of the equations. A model of two phenotype bacteria is also presented. This model is examined to explore memory effects and related hysteresis effects in the area of biology. The memory effects found in this model are similar to that found in the non-ideal relay. This non-ideal relay type behaviour is used to model a colony of bacteria with multiple switching thresholds. This model contains a Preisach type memory with a variable Preisach weight function. Shown numerically for this multi-threshold model is a pattern formation for the distribution of the phenotypes among the available thresholds.