Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Testing for super-exogeneity in the presence of common deterministic shifts

This paper introduces the concept of common deterministic shifts (CDS). This concept is simple, intuitive and relates to the common structure of shifts or policy interventions. We propose a Reduced Rank technique to investigate the presence of CDS. The proposed testing procedure has standard asymptotics and good small-sample properties. We further link the concept of CDS to that of superexogeneity. It is shown that CDS tests can be constructed which allow to test for super-exogeneity. The Monte Carlo evidence indicates that the CDS test for super-exogeneity dominates testing procedures proposed in the literature.

Material processing by plasma shock wave generated in an inverse Z-pinch plasma expander

The applicability of plasma shock wave for material processing was investigated using modified inverse Z-pinch device. Shock wave expanding speed and plasma spectral analysis were studied using an internal magnetic,probe and spatially collimated light spectroscopy. The material processing capability of the device was shown by many different surface analysis techniques such as AES, IRS, EPM and SEM. The interactions between a plasma shock wave of similar to4x10(6) cm/s speed with a Si substrate surface shows some ion implantation capability using a nitrogen plasma and thin film formation using a methane plasma.

Silicon carbide surface modification by nitrogen plasma expander

Silicon carbide (SiC) has been employed in many different fields such as ballistic armor, thermal coating, high performance mirror substrate, semiconductors devices, among other things. Plasma application over the silicon carbide ceramics is relatively recent and it is able to promote relevant superficial modifications. Plasma expander was used in this work which was supplied by nitrogen and switched by a capacitor bank. Nitrogen plasma was applied over ceramic samples for 20 minutes, in a total medium of 1440 plasma pulses. SiC ceramics were produced by uniaxial pressing method (40 MPa) associated to isostatic pressing (300 MPa) and sintered at 1950 degrees C under argon gas atmosphere. Silicon carbide (beta-sic - BF-12) supplied by HC-Starck and sintering additive (7.6% YAG - Yttrium Aluminum Garnet) were used in order to obtain the ceramics. Before and after the plasma application, the samples were characterized by SEM, AFM, contact angle and surface energy measurement.

Soft tissue profile changes after rapid maxillary expansion with a bonded expander

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A deterministic simulation study of embryo marker-assisted selection for age at first calving in Nellore (Bos indicus) beef cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A Novel Plasma Technique for Surface Treatment: The Plasma Expander

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Maxillary ulceration resulting from using a rapid maxillary expander in a diabetic patient

One of the characteristics of diabetes mellitus is the exaggerated inflammatory response. The present report shows the reaction from the use of a rapid maxillary expander in a diabetic patient. A 9-year-old child presented an uncommon reaction to the treatment with a rapid maxillary expander, and on follow-up examination, it was discovered that the patient had diabetes mellitus. After controlling the disease, the proposed treatment was used without further incidents. The case calls attention to the presence of uncommon responses to treatment and the need for the orthodontist to suspect a patient's systemic compromise. (Angle Orthod. 2011;81:546-550.)

Surface analysis of alumina ceramic exposed to shock waves produced by plasma expander

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Deterministic Solutions for a Step-growth Polymerization

Chain topology, including branch node, chain link and cross-link dynamics that contribute to the number of elastically active strands and junctions, are calculated using purely deterministic derivations. Solutions are not coupled to population density distributions. An eigenzeit transformation assists in the conversion of expressions derived by chemical reaction principles from time to conversion space, yielding transport phenomena type expressions where the rate of change in the molar concentrations of branch nodes with respect to conversion is expressed as functions of the fraction of reactive sites on precursors and reactants. Analogies are hypothesized to exist in cross-linking space that effectively distribute branch nodes with i reacted moieties between cross-links having j bonds extending to the gel. To obtain solutions, reacted sites on nodes or links with finite chain extensions are examined in terms of stoichiometry associated with covalent bonding. Solutions replicate published results based on Miller and Macosko’s recursive procedure and results obtained from truncated weighted sums of population density distributions as suggested by Flory.

Complex network classification using partially self-avoiding deterministic walks

Complex networks have attracted increasing interest from various fields of science. It has been demonstrated that each complex network model presents specific topological structures which characterize its connectivity and dynamics. Complex network classification relies on the use of representative measurements that describe topological structures. Although there are a large number of measurements, most of them are correlated. To overcome this limitation, this paper presents a new measurement for complex network classification based on partially self-avoiding walks. We validate the measurement on a data set composed by 40000 complex networks of four well-known models. Our results indicate that the proposed measurement improves correct classification of networks compared to the traditional ones. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4737515]

A comparison of deterministic, reliability-based and risk-based structural optimization under uncertainty

In this paper, the effects of uncertainty and expected costs of failure on optimum structural design are investigated, by comparing three distinct formulations of structural optimization problems. Deterministic Design Optimization (DDO) allows one the find the shape or configuration of a structure that is optimum in terms of mechanics, but the formulation grossly neglects parameter uncertainty and its effects on structural safety. Reliability-based Design Optimization (RBDO) has emerged as an alternative to properly model the safety-under-uncertainty part of the problem. With RBDO, one can ensure that a minimum (and measurable) level of safety is achieved by the optimum structure. However, results are dependent on the failure probabilities used as constraints in the analysis. Risk optimization (RO) increases the scope of the problem by addressing the compromising goals of economy and safety. This is accomplished by quantifying the monetary consequences of failure, as well as the costs associated with construction, operation and maintenance. RO yields the optimum topology and the optimum point of balance between economy and safety. Results are compared for some example problems. The broader RO solution is found first, and optimum results are used as constraints in DDO and RBDO. Results show that even when optimum safety coefficients are used as constraints in DDO, the formulation leads to configurations which respect these design constraints, reduce manufacturing costs but increase total expected costs (including expected costs of failure). When (optimum) system failure probability is used as a constraint in RBDO, this solution also reduces manufacturing costs but by increasing total expected costs. This happens when the costs associated with different failure modes are distinct. Hence, a general equivalence between the formulations cannot be established. Optimum structural design considering expected costs of failure cannot be controlled solely by safety factors nor by failure probability constraints, but will depend on actual structural configuration. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.