Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis

Traditionally the issue of an optimum currency area is based on the theoretical underpinnings developed in the 1960s by McKinnon [13], Kenen [12] and mainly Mundell [14], who is concerned with the benefits of lowering transaction costs vis-à- vis adjustments to asymmetrical shocks. Recently, this theme has been reappraised with new aspects included in the analysis, such as: incomplete markets, credibility of monetary policy and seigniorage, among others. For instance, Neumeyer [15] develops a general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets and shows that a monetary union is desirable when the welfare gains of eliminating the exchange rate volatility are greater than the cost of reducing the number of currencies to hedge against risks. In this paper, we also resort to a general equilibrium model to evaluate financial aspects of an optimum currency area. Our focus is to appraise the welfare of a country heavily dependent on foreign capital that may suffer a speculative attack on its public debt. The welfare analysis uses as reference the self-fulfilling debt crisis model of Cole and Kehoe ([6], [7] and [8]), which is employed here to represent dollarization. Under this regime, the national government has no control over its monetary policy, the total public debt is denominated in dollars and it is in the hands of international bankers. To describe a country that is a member of a currency union, we modify the original Cole-Kehoe model by including public debt denominated in common currency, only purchased by national consumers. According to this rule, the member countries regain some influence over the monetary policy decision, which is, however, dependent on majority voting. We show that for specific levels of dollar debt, to create inflation tax on common-currency debt in order to avoid an external default is more desirable than to suspend its payment, which is the only choice available for a dollarized economy when foreign creditors decide not to renew their loans.

Speculative attacks, openness and crises

In this paper we propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to evaluate financial adjustments that some emerging market economies went through to overcome external crises during the latest decades, such as default and local currency devaluation. We assume that real devaluation can be used to avoid external debt default, to improve trade balance and to reduce the real public debt level denominated in local currency. Such effects increase the government ability to deal with external crisis, but also have costs in terms of welfare, related to expected inflation, reductions in private investments and higher interest to be paid over the public debt. We conclude that openness improves expected welfare as it allows for a better devaluation-response technology against crises. We also present results for 32 middle-income countries, verifying that the proposed model can indicate, in a stylized way, the preferences for default-devaluation options and the magnitude of the currency depreciation required to overcome 48 external crises occurred as from 1971. Finally, as we construct our model based on the Cole-Kehoe self-fulfilling debt crisis model ([7]), adding local debt and trade, it is important to say that their policy alternatives to leave the crisis zone remains in our extended model, namely, to reduce the external debt level and to lengthen its maturity.

Speculative attacks on debts, dollarization and optimum currency areas

The purpose of this article is to contribute to the discussion of the financial aspects of dollarization and optimum currency areas. Based on the model of self-fulfilling debt crisis developed by Cole and Kehoe [4], it is possible to evaluate the comparative welfare of economies, which either keep their local currency and an independent monetary policy, join a monetary union or adopt dollarization. In the two former monetary regimes, governments can issue debt denominated, respectively, in local and common currencies, which is completely purchased by national consumers. Given this ability, governments may decide to impose an inflation tax on these assets and use the revenues so collected to avoid an external debt crises. While the country that issues its own currency takes this decision independently, a country belonging to a monetary union depends on the joint decision of all member countries about the common monetary policy. In this way, an external debt crises may be avoided under the local and common currency regimes, if, respectively, the national and the union central banks have the ability to do monetary policy, represented by the reduction in the real return on the bonds denominated in these currencies. This resource is not available under dollarization. In a dollarized economy, the loss of control over national monetary policy does not allow adjustments for exogenous shocks that asymmetrically affect the client and the anchor countries, but credibility is strengthened. On the other hand, given the ability to inflate the local currency, the central bank may be subject to the political influence of a government not so strongly concerned with fiscal discipline, which reduces the welfare of the economy. In a similar fashion, under a common currency regime, the union central bank may also be under the influence of a group of countries to inflate the common currency, even though they do not face external restrictions. Therefore, the local and common currencies could be viewed as a way to provide welfare enhancing bankruptcy, if it is not abused. With these peculiarities of monetary regimes in mind, we simulate the levels of economic welfare for each, employing recent data for the Brazilian economy.

Why do bidders drop out from a sequential auction

In actual sequential auctions, 1) bidders typically incur a cost in continuing from one sale to the next, and 2) bidders decide whether or not to continue. To investigate the question "why do bidders drop out," we define a sequential auction model with continuation costs and an endogenously determined number of bidders at each sale, and we characterize the equilibria in this model. Simple examples illustrate the effect of several possible changes to this model.

Microeconomic instability and children's human capital accumulation: the effects of idiosyncratic shocks to father's income on child labor, school drop-outs and repetition rates in Brazil

This paper evaluates the long-run effects of economic instability. In particular, we study the impact of idiosyncratic shocks to father’s income on children’s human capital accumulation variables such as school drop-outs, repetition rates and domestic and non-domestic labor. Although, the problem of child labor in Brazil has declined greatly during the last decade, the number of children working is still substantial. The low levels of educational attainment in Brazil are also a main cause for concern. The large rotating panel data set used allows for the estimation of the impacts of changes in occupational and income status of fathers on changes in his child’s time allocation circumstances. The empirical analysis is restricted to families with fathers, mothers and at least one child between 10 and 15 years of age in the main Brazilian metropolitan areas during the 1982-1999 period. We perform logistic regressions controlling for child characteristics (gender, age, if he/she is behind in school for age), parents characteristics (grade attainment and income) and time and location variables. The main variables analyzed are dynamic proxies of impulses and responses, namely: shocks to household head’s income and unemployment status, on the one hand and child’s probability of dropping out of school, of repeating a grade and of start working, on the other. The findings suggest that father’s income has a significant positive correlation with child’s dropping out of school and of repeating a grade. The findings do not suggest a significant relationship between a father’s becoming unemployed and a child entering the non-domestic labor market. However, the results demonstrate a significant positive relationship between a father becoming unemployed and a child beginning to work in domestic labor. There was also a positive correlation between father becoming unemployed and a child dropping out and repeating a grade. Both gender and age were highly significant with boys and older children being more likely to work, drop-out and repeat grades.

Evaluation of fungicide applications to sweet orange at different flowering stages for control of postbloom fruit drop caused by Colletotrichum acutatum

Postbloom fruit drop (PFD), caused by Colletotrichum acutatum, produces blossom blight, fruit abscission and persistent calyces. in groves of Pera-Rio and Natal sweet orange located in Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo and Rincao, São Paulo, Brazil, four experiments were carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of fungicides sprayed alone or as mixtures, at different flowering stages for the control of PFD of citrus. The number of symptomatic flowers, the percentage of fruit set (FS), and the relationship between persistent calyces and total fruit weight per plant were evaluated. The fungicides carbendazim and folpet were sprayed at 0.50 ml and 1.25 ga.i. l(-1) of water, respectively, were superior by all the criteria to the other treatments. Carbendazim and folpet fungicides performed best when they were applied at the green bud through hollow ball stages. Difenoconazole, independent of application timing, was less effective by all criteria used. Application of mancozeb at 1.60 ga.i. l(-1) at the green bud stage followed by application of mancozeb in a tank mix with carbendazim or folpet at 1.0 ml and 1.25 g a.i. l(-1), respectively, during green bud bloom and hollow ball stages were effective for disease control. Carbendazim combined with 0.25% KNO3, reduced the number of persistent calyces and increased fruit production significantly. Applications must be made between green bud and hollow ball stages for best control. Applications only at hollow ball or open flower stages did not provide effective disease control. (C)2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hypercapnic ventilatory response of anesthetized female rats subjected to neonatal maternal separation: Insight into the origins of panic attacks?

Neonatal maternal separation (NMS) is a form of stress that interferes with the regulation of the stress response, an effect that predisposes to the emergence of panic and anxiety related disorders. We previously showed that at adulthood, awake female (but not male) rats subjected to NMS show a hypercapnic ventilatory response (HCVR; 5% CO(2)) that is 63% greater than controls (Genest et al., 2007). To understand the mechanisms underlying the sex-specific effects of NMS on the ventilatory response to CO(2), we used two different anesthetized female rat preparations to assess central CO(2) chemosensitivity and contribution of sensory afferents (stretch receptors and peripheral chemoreceptors) that influence the HCVR. Data show that anesthesia eliminated the respiratory phenotype observed previously in awake females and CO(2) chemosensitivity did not differ between groups. Finally, the assessment of the ovarian hormone levels across the oestrus cycle failed to reveal significant differences between groups. Since anesthesia did not affect the manifestation of NMS-related respiratory dysfunction in males (including the hypercapnic ventilatory response) (Kinkead et al., 2005; Dumont and Kinkead, 2010), we propose that the panic or anxiety induced by CO(2) during wakefulness is responsible for enhancement of the HCVR in NMS females. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance comparativa entre R290/R600a (50:50) e R134a para drop-in em refrigerador doméstico

This research this based on the seminar on Use of Natural Fluids in Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Systems conducted in 2007 in Sao Paulo. The event was inserted in the National Plan for Elimination of CFCs, coordinated by the Ministry of Environment and implemented by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The objective of this research is analyze the performance of the hydrocarbons application as zeotropic mixtures in domestic refrigerator and validate the application of technical standards for pull down and cycling (on-off) tests to the mixture R290/R600a (50:50) in domestic refrigerator. It was first developed an computational analysis of R290/R600a (50:50) compared to R134a and other mass fractions of the hydrocarbons mixtures in the standard ASHRAE refrigeration cycle in order to compare the operational characteristics and thermodynamic properties of fluids based on the software REFPROP 6.0. The characteristics of the Lorenz cycle is presented as an application directed to zeotropic mixtures. Standardized pull down and cycling (on-off) tests were conducted to evaluate the performance of the hydrocarbons mixture R290/R600a (50:50) as a drop-in alternative to R134a in domestic refrigerator of 219 L. The results showed that the use of R290/R600a (50:50) with a charge of refrigerant reduced at 53% compared to R134a presents reduced energy performance than R134a. The COP obtained with hydrocarbon mixture was about 13% lower compared to R134a. Pull down times in the refrigerator compartments for fluids analyzed were quite close, having been found a 4,7% reduction in pull down time for the R290/R600a compared to R134a, in the freezer compartment. The data indicated a higher consumption of electric current from the refrigerator when operating with the R290/R600a. The values were higher than about 3% compared to R134a. The charge of 40 g of R290/R600a proved very low for the equipment analyzed

Análise de desempenho de um refrigerador de pequeno porte com drop in de refrigerantes hidrocarbonetos

From what was stated in the Montreal Protocol, the researchers and refrigeration industry seek substitutes for synthetic refrigerants -chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and HCFCs (HCFC) - that contribute to the depletion of the ozone layer. The phase-out of these substances was started using as one of the replacement alternatives the synthetic fluids based on hydro fluorocarbons (HFCs) that have zero potential depletion of the ozone layer. However, contribute to the process of global warming. HFC refrigerants are greenhouse gases and are part of the group of gases whose emissions must be reduced as the Kyoto Protocol says. The hydrocarbons (HC's), for not contribute to the depletion of the ozone layer, because they have very low global warming potential, and are found abundantly in nature, has been presented as an alternative, and therefore, are being used in new home refrigeration equipment in several countries. In Brazil, due to incipient production of domestic refrigerators using HC's, the transition refrigerants remain on the scene for some years. This dissertation deals with an experimental evaluation of the conduct of a drinking fountain designed to work with HFC (R-134a), operating with a mixture of HC's or isobutane (R-600a) without any modification to the system or the lubricating oil. In the refrigeration laboratory of Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte were installed, in a drinking fountain, temperature and pressure sensors at strategic points in the refrigeration cycle, connected to an acquisition system of computerized data, to enable the mapping and thermodynamics analysis of the device operating with R-134a or with a mixture of HC's or with R-600a. The refrigerator-test operating with the natural fluids (mixture of HC's or R-600a) had a coefficient of performance (COP) lower than the R-134a

Eficiência e custo do controle químico da mancha de alternaria em tangor murcote

A mancha de alternaria, causada por Alternaria alternata f. sp. citri, afeta tangelos Minneola, tangerinas Dancy, tangores Murcote e, menos freqüentemente, tangelos Orlando, tangerinas Novas, Lees e Sunburst. Esta doença causa desfolha grave, queda de frutos e manchas nas frutas. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estabelecer o melhor fungicida e a melhor dose para o controle da mancha marrom de alternaria. O delineamento experimental foi de parcelas subdivididas em blocos, com 10 tratamentos principais e 3 doses (subparcelas), com 5 repetições. Foram feitas 5 aplicações, com intervalo de 15 dias. Os tratamentos foram: azoxystrobin, pyraclostrobin, trifloxystrobin, trifloxystrobin + tebuconazole (2 aplicações) seguido de 3 aplicações de mancozeb, difenoconazole, trifloxystrobin + propiconazole, iprodione, trifloxystrobin + propineb (2 aplicações) seguido de 3 aplicações de oxicloreto de cobre, oxicloreto de cobre + óleo e testemunha. Simultaneamente foram feitas avaliações de incidência e número de lesões por folha. Ao surgimento dos frutos foram avaliadas a incidência em frutos e a produtividade em Kg/ha. Todos os tratamentos foram superiores à testemunha quanto a produtividade. Entre os produtos utilizados o tratamento com trifloxystrobin + propiconazole foi rentável comparando-se custo e produtividade.

Numerical simulation of drop impact and jet buckling problems using the eXtended Pom-Pom model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Pressure drop correlation for oil-refrigerant R134a mixture flashing flow in a small diameter tube

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Piranha attacks in dammed streams used for human recreation in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Ataques por piranhas vêm se tornando um problema comum em trechos represados de rios e córregos no estado de São Paulo, Sudeste do Brasil. em dois surtos ocorridos em dois municípios vizinhos no noroeste do estado, 74 banhistas foram mordidos. Uma mordida por pessoa foi registrada, em curto período do ano. As mordidas estão relacionadas a cuidado parental e/ou defesa do território de desova, o que reforça estudos anteriores e desmistifica os ataques por este peixe lendário, da maneira como são popularmente percebidos. A colocação de redes de malha fina e a remoção de vegetação aquática cessaram os ataques.

Coati (Nasua nasua) Attacks on Humans: Case Report

Coatis [including Nasua nasua, the ring-tailed coati], are medium-sized mammals widely distributed in the Americas. They are social animals, whose normal diet includes insects, fruits, and small vertebrates, and rarely prey on larger sized animals. There are, to our knowledge, no reports in the medical literature of attacks on humans. This report describes a coati attack on 2 children in their home. The children sustained deep scratches and bites. The animal may have injured the humans in a defensive strike, but motivation for attack was uncertain. Coati attacks may occur in places where there is interaction between these mammals and humans.