¿Fue la crisis política del Occidente musulmán del siglo XIII debida a un cambio climático? Una aproximación histórica al fin del Periodo Cálido Medieval

Durante el siglo XIII se produjo una sucesión de revueltas que supuso la desaparición del Imperio almohade y su sustitución por poderes regionales en al-Andalus, el Magreb y el Magreb al-Aqsà. La historiografía ha presentado el surgimiento y pugna entre estos poderes como un fenómeno social, político e, incluso, cultural y religioso, con el que se ha podido explicar su aniquilación o marginalización. Este trabajo pretende contextualizar los hechos desde una perspectiva medioambiental, de forma que la desintegración del califato almohade, el surgimiento de aquellos poderes y la progresión de los reinos cristianos en la península ibérica puedan entenderse desde una visión global de cambio climático y una posible crisis agrícola.

From local scenarios to national maps: a participatory framework for envisioning the future of Tanzania

Tackling societal and environmental challenges requires new approaches that connect top-down global oversight with bottom-up subnational knowledge. We present a novel framework for participatory development of spatially explicit scenarios at national scale that model socioeconomic and environmental dynamics by reconciling local stakeholder perspectives and national spatial data. We illustrate results generated by this approach and evaluate its potential to contribute to a greater understanding of the relationship between development pathways and sustainability. Using the lens of land use and land cover changes, and engaging 240 stakeholders representing subnational (seven forest management zones) and the national level, we applied the framework to assess alternative development strategies in the Tanzania mainland to the year 2025, under either a business as usual or a green development scenario. In the business as usual scenario, no productivity gain is expected, cultivated land expands by ~ 2% per year (up to 88,808 km²), with large impacts on woodlands and wetlands. Despite legal protection, encroachment of natural forest occurs along reserve borders. Additional wood demand leads to degradation, i.e., loss of tree cover and biomass, up to 80,426 km² of wooded land. The alternative green economy scenario envisages decreasing degradation and deforestation with increasing productivity (+10%) and implementation of payment for ecosystem service schemes. In this scenario, cropland expands by 44,132 km² and the additional degradation is limited to 35,778 km². This scenario development framework captures perspectives and knowledge across a diverse range of stakeholders and regions. Although further effort is required to extend its applicability, improve users’ equity, and reduce costs the resulting spatial outputs can be used to inform national level planning and policy implementation associated with sustainable development, especially the REDD+ climate mitigation strategy.

“He who plants a tree – Plants a hope.” Reforestation possibilities in Tingana, Peru

Tropical forests have decreased drastically especially in the Peruvian Amazon. In Peru deforestation is caused especially by migrant people; building of houses and infrastructure, clearing land for agricultural purposes and illegal logging and mining. Deforestation results in hindering ecosystem vitality, boosting climate change and decreasing livelihood possibilities. As a counterpoint to cutting down trees there is reforestation, which refers to re-establishment of forest cover. Deforestation and reforestation can be analysed in the light of Forest Transition theory. According to it, due to economic growth, the amount forest cover first diminishes but then starts to increase as the economy in general strengthens. Thus, the research framework is set to this theory. In this study the focus is on analysing socioeconomically sustainable reforestation possibilities in the community of Tingana, Peru. It is situated in a municipal conservation area around which deforestation has been heavy. Land cover change is analysed from LandsatTM satellite images covering a 15 year time period, 1995–2010, in the surroundings of the study area. Semi-structured interviews have been done with a sample size of 25 people and shed light on the perspectives on forests, reforestation and economical activities. The synthesis created from the two methods gives information about the possibilities to enforce reforestation in Tingana and the phase of forest transition in the area. The results show that forest cover has decreased around the surroundings of Tingana leaving the conservation area isolated from larger forest areas. Knowing that forest cover has also decreased inside the conservation area due to agricultural expansion it is certain that fragmentation harms biodiversity causing changes in local climate, which can have knock-on effects for farming and local livelihoods. Therefore reforestation is welcomed when it ensures both conservation and financial benefits and when carried out on locals’ terms. Regarding conservation and incomes the best option would be to plant native timber species together with fruit production species to create agroforestry systems. Economically the community should aim towards an economy that relies on ecotourism as it already practiced in the area. Reforestation could increase ecotourism, which then could in turn increase reforestation via revenues. Regarding forest transition it is likely that forest re-establishment will occur if reforestation along with ecotourism is implemented on long time scale.

Análise da paisagem e das alterações de uso/ocupação do solo no Lubango e arredores

A cartografia temática surge como um aliado indispensável ao estudo e conhecimento do estado da paisagem e dos ecossistemas terrestres. Angola é um país com uma enorme lacuna em termos de informação cartográfica para suporte a diversas actividades desenvolvidas em várias áreas. É por isso necessária informação sobre a superfície terrestre que registe as alterações temporais ocorridas nos ecossistemas e identifique os factores que estão na sua origem de forma a implementar medidas que permitam uma gestão mais sustentável do seu enorme território. O presente estudo foi realizado no sector Sudoeste de Angola, abrangendo os municípios do Lubango, Humpata e Chibia, com uma área aproximada de 9600 km2. Os objectivos foram: a) cartografar o coberto do solo e monitorizar as alterações ocorridas na área de estudo no período 1990-2010, b) analisar e interpretar as alterações da estrutura da paisagem nos últimos 20 anos usando cartografia de ocupação do solo, produzida recorrendo a imagens de satélite, e métricas da paisagem, e c) quantificar e examinar a relação entre a fragmentação da paisagem e os factores geradores. A metodologia utilizada no estudo é composta por duas partes, sendo a primeira dedicada às operações de processamento e interpretação de imagens de satélite Landsat e, a segunda dedicada à produção de novas métricas de fragmentação da paisagem com recurso à ferramenta SIG utilizando operações de álgebra de mapas. O comportamento da fragmentação é analisado, à luz do efeito dos fatores ambientais e socioeconómicas ao nível da região. Os resultados obtidos, através da aplicação de técnicas de deteção remota e usando imagens Landsat TM e ETM+, permitiram a elaboração de mapas de coberto do solo, onde se distinguiram 8 classes temáticas e espectralmente diferentes. Verificou-se em termos globais que aproximadamente 38% da área sofreu algum tipo de alteração no período estudado, sendo as classes de miombo e áreas cultivadas as que mais alterações sofreram. A fragmentação da paisagem foi avaliada através da implementação de novas métricas, mostrando os resultados, que no período 1990-2000, a fragmentação foi superior à que se verificou entre 2000-2010. A nível espacial, a dinâmica de fragmentação foi mais acentuada, entre 1990-2000, na Humpata e, entre 2000-2010, no Lubango; ANALYSIS OF LANDSCAPE AND LAND USE LAND COVER CHANGE IN LUBANGO AND SURROUNDINGS ABSTRACT: Thematic cartography shows up as an essential ally in the study and knowledge of the state of landscapes and terrestrial ecosystems. Angola is a country with an enormous lack of cartographic information to support the several activities carried out in a variety of areas. This is the reason information on the earth’s surface is necessary, registering alterations which occur over time in ecosystems and identifying the associated factors in its origin, so as to implement metrics that allow a more sustainable management of its enormous territory. This study was carried out in the Southeast of Angola in the Lubango, Humpata and Chibia Municipalities, with an area of approximately 9600 km2. Our objectives were the following: a) land cover mapping and land cover changes monitoring over the period 1990 to 2010 using Landsat images, b) to analyze and interpret landscape structures changes using land cover maps, and landscapes metrics, and c) to quantify and to examine the relationship between landscape fragmentation and its drivers. The methodology developed in the study has two parts, the first includes Landsat satellite images processing and interpretation and, the second the production of new landscape fragmentation metrics with support to a GIS tool and algebraic mapping operations. The fragmentation behavior is analyzed, taking into account the effect of environmental and socioeconomic factors at a regional level. The results allowed obtaining land cover maps, in which 8 spectrally different thematic classes were distinguished. It was observed that 38% of the area suffered some type of alteration in the studied period, with higher changes observed in the classes of miombo and agriculture. Landscapes fragmentation results, evaluated through the implementation of new metrics, show that, values are greater in the period 1990-2000 than in 2000-2010. At municipality level, fragmentation dynamics were more accentuated in Humpata between 1990 -2000 and in Lubango between 2000 -2010.

U.S. landowner behavior, land use and land cover changes, and climate change mitigation

Abstract

Forest cover and its change in Unguja Island, Zanzibar

Tropical forests are sources of many ecosystem services, but these forests are vanishing rapidly. The situation is severe in Sub-Saharan Africa and especially in Tanzania. The causes of change are multidimensional and strongly interdependent, and only understanding them comprehensively helps to change the ongoing unsustainable trends of forest decline. Ongoing forest changes, their spatiality and connection to humans and environment can be studied with the methods of Land Change Science. The knowledge produced with these methods helps to make arguments about the actors, actions and causes that are behind the forest decline. In this study of Unguja Island in Zanzibar the focus is in the current forest cover and its changes between 1996 and 2009. The cover and changes are measured with often used remote sensing methods of automated land cover classification and post-classification comparison from medium resolution satellite images. Kernel Density Estimation is used to determine the clusters of change, sub-area –analysis provides information about the differences between regions, while distance and regression analyses connect changes to environmental factors. These analyses do not only explain the happened changes, but also allow building quantitative and spatial future scenarios. Similar study has not been made for Unguja and therefore it provides new information, which is beneficial for the whole society. The results show that 572 km2 of Unguja is still forested, but 0,82–1,19% of these forests are disappearing annually. Besides deforestation also vertical degradation and spatial changes are significant problems. Deforestation is most severe in the communal indigenous forests, but also agroforests are decreasing. Spatially deforestation concentrates to the areas close to the coastline, population and Zanzibar Town. Biophysical factors on the other hand do not seem to influence the ongoing deforestation process. If the current trend continues there should be approximately 485 km2 of forests remaining in 2025. Solutions to these deforestation problems should be looked from sustainable land use management, surveying and protection of the forests in risk areas and spatially targeted self-sustainable tree planting schemes.

Spatial and temporal analysis of land cover and landscape structure change in Zagros Forests

The Zagros oak forests in Western Iran are critically important to the sustainability of the region. These forests have undergone dramatic declines in recent decades. We evaluated the utility of the non-parametric Random Forest classification algorithm for land cover classification of Zagros landscapes, and selected the best spatial and spectral predictive variables. The algorithm resulted in high overall classification accuracies (>85%) and also equivalent classification accuracies for the datasets from the three different sensors. We evaluated the associations between trends in forest area and structure with trends in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, to identify the most likely driving forces creating deforestation and landscape structure change. We used available socioeconomic (urban and rural population, and rural income), and climatic (mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature) data for two provinces in northern Zagros. The most correlated driving force of forest area loss was urban population, and climatic variables to a lesser extent. Landscape structure changes were more closely associated with rural population. We examined the effects of scale changes on the results from spatial pattern analysis. We assessed the impacts of eight years of protection in a protected area in northern Zagros at two different scales (both grain and extent). The effects of protection on the amount and structure of forests was scale dependent. We evaluated the nature and magnitude of changes in forest area and structure over the entire Zagros region from 1972 to 2009. We divided the Zagros region in 167 Landscape Units and developed two measures— Deforestation Sensitivity (DS) and Connectivity Sensitivity (CS) — for each landscape unit as the percent of the time steps that forest area and ECA experienced a decrease of greater than 10% in either measure. A considerable loss in forest area and connectivity was detected, but no sudden (nonlinear) changes were detected at the spatial and temporal scale of the study. Connectivity loss occurred more rapidly than forest loss due to the loss of connecting patches. More connectivity was lost in southern Zagros due to climatic differences and different forms of traditional land use.

Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.

The Amazon Frontier of Land-Use Change: Croplands and Consequences for Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural frontiers in the world. The authors assess changes in cropland area and the intensification of cropping in the Brazilian agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso using remote sensing and develop a greenhouse gas emissions budget. The most common type of intensification in this region is a shift from single-to double-cropping patterns and associated changes in management, including increased fertilization. Using the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, the authors created a green-leaf phenology for 2001-06 that was temporally smoothed with a wavelet filter. The wavelet-smoothed green-leaf phenology was analyzed to detect cropland areas and their cropping patterns. The authors document cropland extensification and double-cropping intensification validated with field data with 85% accuracy for detecting croplands and 64% and 89% accuracy for detecting single-and double-cropping patterns, respectively. The results show that croplands more than doubled from 2001 to 2006 to cover about 100 000 km(2) and that new double-cropping intensification occurred on over 20% of croplands. Variations are seen in the annual rates of extensification and double-cropping intensification. Greenhouse gas emissions are estimated for the period 2001-06 due to conversion of natural vegetation and pastures to row-crop agriculture in Mato Grosso averaged 179 Tg CO(2)-e yr(-1),over half the typical fossil fuel emissions for the country in recent years.

Low coral cover in a high-CO2 world

Coral reefs generally exist within a relatively narrow band of temperatures, light, and seawater aragonite saturation states. The growth of coral reefs is minimal or nonexistent outside this envelope. Climate change, through its effect on ocean temperature, has already had an impact on the world's coral reefs, with almost 30% of corals having disappeared since the beginning of the 1980s. Abnormally warm temperatures cause corals to bleach ( lose their brown dinoflagellate symbionts) and, if elevated for long enough, to die. Increasing atmospheric CO2 is also potentially affecting coral reefs by lowering the aragonite saturation state of seawater, making carbonate ions less available for calcification. The synergistic interaction of elevated temperature and CO2 is likely to produce major changes to coral reefs over the next few decades and centuries. Known tolerances of corals to projected changes to sea temperatures indicate that corals are unlikely to remain abundant on reefs and could be rare by the middle of this century if the atmospheric CO2 concentration doubles or triples. The combination of changes to sea temperature and carbonate ion availability could trigger large- scale changes in the biodiversity and function of coral reefs. The ramifications of these changes for the hundred of millions of coral reef - dependent people and industries living in a high- CO2 world have yet to be properly defined. The weight of evidence suggests, however, that projected changes will cause major shifts in the prospects for industries and societies that depend on having healthy coral reefs along their coastlines.

Vulnerability of mediterranean watersheds to climate change

Desertification is a critical issue for Mediterranean drylands. Climate change is expected to aggravate its extension and severity by reinforcing the biophysical driving forces behind desertification processes: hydrology, vegetation cover and soil erosion. The main objective of this thesis is to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean watersheds to climate change, by estimating impacts on desertification drivers and the watersheds’ resilience to them. To achieve this objective, a modeling framework capable of analyzing the processes linking climate and the main drivers is developed. The framework couples different models adapted to different spatial and temporal scales. A new model for the event scale is developed, the MEFIDIS model, with a focus on the particular processes governing Mediterranean watersheds. Model results are compared with desertification thresholds to estimate resilience. This methodology is applied to two contrasting study areas: the Guadiana and the Tejo, which currently present a semi-arid and humid climate. The main conclusions taken from this work can be summarized as follows: • hydrological processes show a high sensitivity to climate change, leading to a significant decrease in runoff and an increase in temporal variability; • vegetation processes appear to be less sensitive, with negative impacts for agricultural species and forests, and positive impacts for Mediterranean species; • changes to soil erosion processes appear to depend on the balance between changes to surface runoff and vegetation cover, itself governed by relationship between changes to temperature and rainfall; • as the magnitude of changes to climate increases, desertification thresholds are surpassed in a sequential way, starting with the watersheds’ ability to sustain current water demands and followed by the vegetation support capacity; • the most important thresholds appear to be a temperature increase of +3.5 to +4.5 ºC and a rainfall decrease of -10 to -20 %; • rainfall changes beyond this threshold could lead to severe water stress occurring even if current water uses are moderated, with droughts occurring in 1 out of 4 years; • temperature changes beyond this threshold could lead to a decrease in agricultural yield accompanied by an increase in soil erosion for croplands; • combined changes of temperature and rainfall beyond the thresholds could shift both systems towards a more arid state, leading to severe water stresses and significant changes to the support capacity for current agriculture and natural vegetation in both study areas.

Urban land use change analysis and modelling: a case study of Setubal-Sesimbra, Portugal

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Land cover mapping analysis and urban growth modeling using remote sensing techniques

The rapid growth of big cities has been noticed since 1950s when the majority of world population turned to live in urban areas rather than villages, seeking better job opportunities and higher quality of services and lifestyle circumstances. This demographic transition from rural to urban is expected to have a continuous increase. Governments, especially in less developed countries, are going to face more challenges in different sectors, raising the essence of understanding the spatial pattern of the growth for an effective urban planning. The study aimed to detect, analyse and model the urban growth in Greater Cairo Region (GCR) as one of the fast growing mega cities in the world using remote sensing data. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers in Egypt to adjust their plans and develop new ones. These plans should focus on resources reallocation to overcome the problems arising in the future and to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas, especially after the high percentage of illegal settlements which took place in the last decades. The study focused on a period of 30 years; from 1984 to 2014, and the major transitions to urban were modelled to predict the future scenarios in 2025. Three satellite images of different time stamps (1984, 2003 and 2014) were classified using Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifier, then the land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique. Later the results were analyzed for higher accurate estimations of the urban growth in the future in 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in IDRISI software. Moreover, the spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using statistical metrics developed in FRAGSTATS software. The study resulted in an overall classification accuracy of 96%, 97.3% and 96.3% for 1984, 2003 and 2014’s map, respectively. Between 1984 and 2003, 19 179 hectares of vegetation and 21 417 hectares of desert changed to urban, while from 2003 to 2014, the transitions to urban from both land cover classes were found to be 16 486 and 31 045 hectares, respectively. The model results indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will turn into urban in 2025, representing 16 512 and 24 687 hectares, respectively.