Tourism life cycle, tourism competitiveness and upgrading strategies in the Caribbean

In the 1980s Butler adapted the life cycle product model to the tourism industry and created the “Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) model”. The model recognizes six stages in the tourism product life cycle: exploration, investment, development, consolidation, stagnation and followed, after stagnation, by decline or revitalization of the product. These six stages can in turn be regrouped into four main stages. The Butler model has been applied to more than 30 country cases with a wide degree of success. De Albuquerque and Mc Elroy (1992) applied the TALC model to 23 small Caribbean island States in the 1990s. Following De Albuquerque and Mc Elroy, the TALC is applied to the 32 member countries of the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO) (except for Cancun and Cozumel) to locate their positions along their tourism life-cycle in 2007. This is done using the following indicators: the evolution of the level, market share and growth rate of stay-over arrivals; the growth rate and market share of visitor expenditures per arrival and the tourism styles of the destinations, differentiating between ongoing mass tourism and niche marketing strategies and among upscale, mid-scale and low-scale destinations. Countries have pursued three broad classes of strategies over the last 15 years in order to move upward in their tourism life cycle and enhance their tourism competitiveness. There is first a strategy that continues to rely on mass-tourism to build on the comparative advantages of “sun, sand and sea”, scale economies, all-inclusive packages and large amounts of investment to move along in Stage 2 or Stage 3 (Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico). There is a second strategy pursued mainly by very small islands that relies on developing specific niche markets to maintain tourism competitiveness through upgrading (Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, British Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos), allowing them to move from Stage 2 to Stage 3 or Stage 3 to a rejuvenation stage. There is a third strategy that uses a mix of mass-tourism, niche marketing and quality upgrading either to emerge onto the intermediate stage (Trinidad and Tobago); avoid decline (Aruba, The Bahamas) or rejuvenate (Barbados, Jamaica and the United States Virgin Islands). There have been many success stories in Caribbean tourism competitiveness and further research should aim at empirically testing the determinants of tourism competitiveness for the region as a whole.

Implementation of the 2014-2015 programme of work: subprogramme 13: subregional activities in the Caribbean

This report highlights the activities carried out by ECLAC in the Caribbean subregion between 1 January 2014 and 31 March 2015. Subprogramme 13 of the ECLAC programme of work 2014-2015 (“Subregional activities in the Caribbean”) covers the Commission’s work in Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cuba, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago, as well as Anguilla, Aruba, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Curaçao, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Montserrat, Puerto Rico, Sint Maarten, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the United States Virgin Islands. Subprogramme 12 (“Subregional activities in Central America, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Mexico”) includes activities conducted in the Caribbean member States of Cuba, the Dominican Republic and Haiti. In addition, countries of the Caribbean were included in activities organized under the 12 other substantive subprogrammes of the ECLAC programme of work 2014-2015, namely: (i) linkages with the global economy, integration and regional cooperation; (ii) production and innovation; (iii) macroeconomic policies and growth; (iv) financing for development; (v) social development and equality; (vi) mainstreaming the gender perspective in regional development; (vii) population and development; (viii) sustainable development and human settlements; (ix) natural resources and infrastructure; (x) planning of public administration; (xi) statistics; and (xii) support for regional and subregional integration and cooperation processes and organizations.

Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2015: Balancing economic recovery and high debt in the Caribbean

The survey provides an overview of the economic performance for 2014 of the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago plus the eight member states of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and the outlook for 2015. Data were collected from a review of reports from national governments and through interviews with government officials in each of the countries analyzed.

An assessment of the economic impact of Climate Change on the Macroeconomy in the Caribbean

Between 2008 and 2011, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) worked on a project to assess the economic impact of climate change in the Caribbean. The overall aim is to prepare the Caribbean region to better respond to climate change, while fostering a regional approach to reducing carbon emissions by 2050. This study updates the report on the impact of climate change on the macroeconomy at the regional level and will focus on 9 countries: Aruba, the Bahamas, Barbados, Curacao, the Dominican Republic, Montserrat, Jamaica, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago.

Species Assemblages of Leptocephali in the Southwestern Sargasso Sea

Catches of leptocephali of shelf and slope marine eels of the Chlopsidae, Congridae, Moringuidae, Muraenidae, and Ophichthidae collected during a survey in the southwestern Sargasso Sea in late September and early October 1984 were analyzed to learn about their reproductive ecology and larval transport. Sampling along a transect from the Florida Current (FC) out across the southwestern Sargasso Sea and in the Northwest Providence Channel (NWPC) of the Northern Bahamas enabled the evaluation of the larval distributions, abundances and size ranges, regional assemblage structure, and the apparent spawning areas of these marine eels. Distinctly different assemblages observed in the FC and NWPC included the congrid genera Heteroconger, Paraconger, Uroconger, and many ophichthid species, which were rare or absent offshore. Other taxa of congrids, chlopsids, muraenids and moringuids were present in all areas, but the smallest specimens of most taxa were only caught at the NWPC or FC stations. Multivariate analyses reflected higher richness and abundance in the FC and NWPC and also similar species compositions in offshore areas. The patterns of distribution of these leptocephali differed from those of anguillid, nettastomatid, and mesopelagic eel leptocephali collected in the same survey. These findings support the hypothesis that most taxa of marine eels spawn close to their adult habitats, and indicate that despite high biodiversity of marine eels in the Northern Bahamas, only some species of leptocephali appear to get transported far offshore by ocean currents.

Measurements of trace metal abundances and isotopes in carbonate sediments, Exuma, Bahamas

In order to validate the use of 238U/235U as a paleoredox proxy in carbonates, we examined the incorporation and early diagenetic evolution of U isotopes in shallow Bahamian carbonate sediments. Our sample set consists of a variety of primary precipitates that represent a range of carbonate producing organisms and components that were important in the past (scleractinian corals, calcareous green and red algae, ooids, and mollusks). In addition, four short push cores were taken in different depositional environments to assess the impact of early diagenesis and pore water chemistry on the U isotopic composition of bulk carbonates. We find that U concentrations are much higher in bulk carbonate sediments (avg. 4.1 ppm) than in primary precipitates (avg. 1.5 ppm). In almost all cases, the lowest bulk sediment U concentrations were as high as or higher than the highest concentrations found in primary precipitates. This is consistent with authigenic accumulation of reduced U(IV) during early diagenesis. The extent of this process appears sensitive to pore water H2S, and thus indirectly to organic matter content. d238/235U values were very close to seawater values in all of the primary precipitates, suggesting that these carbonate components could be used to reconstruct changes in seawater U geochemistry. However, d238/235U of bulk sediments from the push cores was 0.2-0.4 per mil heavier than seawater (and primary precipitates). These results indicate that authigenic accumulation of U under open-system sulfidic pore water conditions commonly found in carbonate sediments strongly affects the bulk U concentrations and 238U/235U ratios. We also report the occurrence of dolomite in a tidal pond core which contains low 234U/238U and 238U/235U ratios and discuss the possibility that the dolomitization process may result in sediments depleted in 238U. From this initial exploration, it is clear that 238U/235U variations in ancient carbonate sediments could be driven by changes in global average seawater, by spatial and temporal variations in the local deposition environment, or subsequent diagenesis. To cope with such effects, proxies for syndepositional pore water redox conditions (e.g., organic matter content, iron speciation, and trace metal distributions) and careful consideration of possible post-deposition alteration will be required to avoid spurious interpretation of 238U/235U data from ancient carbonate sediments.

Uranium concentrations and isotope ratios Bahamas seawater and ODP holes pore-water

The geometry, timing, and rate of fluid-flow through carbonate margins and platforms is not well constrained. In this study, we use U concentrations and isotope ratios measured on small volumes of pore-water from Bahamas slope sediment, coupled with existing chlorinity data, to place constraints on the fluid-flow in this region and, by implication, other carbonate platforms. These data also allow an assessment of the behaviour of U isotopes in an unusually well constrained water-rock system. We report pore-water U concentrations which are controlled by dissolution of high-U organic material at shallow depths in the sediment and by reduction of U to its insoluble 4+ state at greater depths. The dominant process influencing pore-water (234U/238U) is alpha recoil. In Holocene sediments, the increase of pore-water (234U/238U) due to recoil provides an estimate of the horizontal flow rate of 11 cm/year, but with considerable uncertainty. At depths in the sediment where conditions are reducing, features in the U concentration and (234U/238U) profiles are offset from one another which constrains the effective diffusivity for U in these sediments to be c. 1-2 * 10**-8 cm**2/s. At depths between the Holocene and these reducing sediments, pore-water (234U/238U) values are unusually low due to a recent increase in the dissolution rate of grain surfaces. This suggests a strengthening of fluid flow, probably due to the flooding of the banks at the last deglaciation and the re-initiation of thermally-driven venting of fluid on the bank top and accompanying recharge on the slopes. Interpretation of existing chlorinity data, in the light of this change in flow rate, constrain the recent horizontal flow rate to be 10.6 ( 3.4) cm/year. Estimates of flow rate from (234U/238U) and Cl[-] are therefore in agreement and suggest flow rates close to those predicted by thermally-driven models of fluid flow. This agreement supports the idea that flow within the Bahamas Banks is mostly thermally driven and suggests that flow rates on the order of 10 cm/year are typical for carbonate platforms where such flow occurs.

Carbonate composition of Pliocene-Pleistocene sediments of the Maledives

Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 115 post-cruise research was focused on two Maldives sites, more precisely on the top 108 m of Hole 716B (water depth, 540 m), equivalent to the past 3.5 m.y., and the top 19.5 m of Hole 714A (water depth, 2195 m), equivalent to the past 0.55 m.y. These sediments consist of mostly unaltered and undisturbed, turbidite-free, periplatform ooze. Results of our research are compared with existing data on Hole 633A (water depth, 1681 m), drilled in the Bahamas during ODP Leg 101, using age/depth models built on the basis of oxygen isotope, nannofossil, and magnetic stratigraphies. Climate-induced, long-term (roughly 0.5 m.y.) aragonite cycles, superposed on short-term (roughly 0.04 and 0.1 m.y.) aragonite cycles, have been established at least during the past 2.0 m.y., in the Maldives and the Bahamas. Our most interesting result is the clear correlation among the aragonite long-term cycles in the Maldives and the Bahamas and the carbonate-preservation, long-term cycles from the open Pacific, Indian, and North Atlantic oceans. The mid-Brunhes dissolution interval, corresponding to the youngest preservation minima of the carbonate-preservation, longterm cycles, is clearly defined by fine aragonite minimum values in the deep periplatform sites, and by maximum fragmentation of pteropod tests in the shallow sites. Aragonite and planktonic d18O records, usually in phase during the late Pleistocene, display, further back in time, discreet intervals where the two records do not match with one another. Major mismatches between both records occur synchronously in the Maldives and Bahamas periplatform sites and seem to correspond to extreme events of either carbonate-preservation or dissolution in the deep pelagic carbonate sites of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Based on our findings, short- and long-term aragonite cycles can no longer be explained only by variations of aragonite input from the nearby shallow carbonate banks, in response to their alternate flooding and exposure through cyclic sea-level fluctuations. The aragonite long-term cycles in the periplatform environments are interpreted as carbonatepreservation cycles at intermediate-water depths. Their occurrence shows, therefore, that the carbonate chemistry of the entire water column has been influenced by long-term (0.5 m.y.) cyclic variations during the past 2.0 m.y. These major changes of the water-column carbonate chemistry are linked to the climate-induced carbon cycling among the different atmospheric, oceanic, and sedimentary carbon reservoirs.

Planktonic foraminiferal d18O values and apparent calcification depths of core-top samples along an east-west transect across the tropical Atlantic/Caribbean

D18O values of nine tropical-subtropical planktonic foraminiferal species with different preferential habitat depths collected from 62 core-top samples along an east-west transect across the tropical Atlantic/Caribbean were used to test the applicability of interspecific d18O gradients for reconstructions of tropical upper ocean stratification. In general, the d18O difference (Delta d18O) between intermediate- and shallow-dwelling species decreases, and Delta d18O between deep and intermediate dwellers increases with increasing thermocline depth towards the west. The statistical significance of regional differences in Delta d18O highlights Delta d18O between the intermediate dwellers (in particular Globorotalia scitula and Globorotalia tumida) and the shallow dweller Globigerinoides ruber pink, as well as Delta d18O between the deep dwellers Globorotalia crassaformis or Globorotalia truncatulinoides dextral and intermediate dwellers as most sensitive to changes in tropical Atlantic thermocline depth. Based on the observed regional variations in interspecific Delta d18O, we propose a multispecies stratification index "STRAtrop" = (d18Ointermediate - d18Oshallow) / (d18Odeep - d18Oshallow) for the tropical ocean. Statistically significant differences in STRAtrop values between the E-Atlantic and the Caribbean suggest that this index may be a useful tool to monitor variations in tropical upper ocean stratification in the geological record.