Design of neuro-fuzzy models by evolutionary and gradient-based algorithms

All systems found in nature exhibit, with different degrees, a nonlinear behavior. To emulate this behavior, classical systems identification techniques use, typically, linear models, for mathematical simplicity. Models inspired by biological principles (artificial neural networks) and linguistically motivated (fuzzy systems), due to their universal approximation property, are becoming alternatives to classical mathematical models. In systems identification, the design of this type of models is an iterative process, requiring, among other steps, the need to identify the model structure, as well as the estimation of the model parameters. This thesis addresses the applicability of gradient-basis algorithms for the parameter estimation phase, and the use of evolutionary algorithms for model structure selection, for the design of neuro-fuzzy systems, i.e., models that offer the transparency property found in fuzzy systems, but use, for their design, algorithms introduced in the context of neural networks. A new methodology, based on the minimization of the integral of the error, and exploiting the parameter separability property typically found in neuro-fuzzy systems, is proposed for parameter estimation. A recent evolutionary technique (bacterial algorithms), based on the natural phenomenon of microbial evolution, is combined with genetic programming, and the resulting algorithm, bacterial programming, advocated for structure determination. Different versions of this evolutionary technique are combined with gradient-based algorithms, solving problems found in fuzzy and neuro-fuzzy design, namely incorporation of a-priori knowledge, gradient algorithms initialization and model complexity reduction.

A fuzzy multi-criteria decision approach for enhanced auto-tracking of seismic events

The main activity carried out by the geophysicist when interpreting seismic data, in terms of both importance and time spent is tracking (or picking) seismic events. in practice, this activity turns out to be rather challenging, particularly when the targeted event is interrupted by discontinuities such as geological faults or exhibits lateral changes in seismic character. In recent years, several automated schemes, known as auto-trackers, have been developed to assist the interpreter in this tedious and time-consuming task. The automatic tracking tool available in modem interpretation software packages often employs artificial neural networks (ANN's) to identify seismic picks belonging to target events through a pattern recognition process. The ability of ANNs to track horizons across discontinuities largely depends on how reliably data patterns characterise these horizons. While seismic attributes are commonly used to characterise amplitude peaks forming a seismic horizon, some researchers in the field claim that inherent seismic information is lost in the attribute extraction process and advocate instead the use of raw data (amplitude samples). This paper investigates the performance of ANNs using either characterisation methods, and demonstrates how the complementarity of both seismic attributes and raw data can be exploited in conjunction with other geological information in a fuzzy inference system (FIS) to achieve an enhanced auto-tracking performance.

A web based decision support system for status assessment in advanced parkinson

The purpose of this work is to develop a web based decision support system, based onfuzzy logic, to assess the motor state of Parkinson patients on their performance in onscreenmotor tests in a test battery on a hand computer. A set of well defined rules, basedon an expert’s knowledge, were made to diagnose the current state of the patient. At theend of a period, an overall score is calculated which represents the overall state of thepatient during the period. Acceptability of the rules is based on the absolute differencebetween patient’s own assessment of his condition and the diagnosed state. Anyinconsistency can be tracked by highlighted as an alert in the system. Graphicalpresentation of data aims at enhanced analysis of patient’s state and performancemonitoring by the clinic staff. In general, the system is beneficial for the clinic staff,patients, project managers and researchers.

Neurofuzzy decision support system for efficient risk allocation in public-private partnership infrastructure projects

The performance of public-private partnership (PPP) infrastructure projects is largely contingent on whether the adopted risk allocation (RA) strategy is efficient. Theoretical frameworks drawing on the transaction cost economics and the resource-based view of organizational capability are able to explain the underlying mechanism but unable to accurately forecast efficient RA strategies. In this paper, a neurofuzzy decision support system (NFDSS) was developed to assist in the RA decision-making process in PPP projects. By combining fuzzy and neural network techniques, a synthesized fuzzy inference system was established and taken as the core component of the NFDSS. Evaluation results show that the NFDSS can forecast efficient RA strategies for PPP infrastructure projects at a highly accurate and effective level. A real PPP infrastructure project is used to demonstrate the NFDSS and its practical significance.

On the use of fuzzy rule interpolation techniques for monotonic multi-input fuzzy rule base models

Constructing a monotonicity relating function is important, as many engineering problems revolve around a monotonicity relationship between input(s) and output(s). In this paper, we investigate the use of fuzzy rule interpolation techniques for monotonicity relating fuzzy inference system (FIS). A mathematical derivation on the conditions of an FIS to be monotone is provided. From the derivation, two conditions are necessary. The derivation suggests that the mapped consequence fuzzy set of an FIS to be of a monotonicity order. We further evaluate the use of fuzzy rule interpolation techniques in predicting a consequent associated with an observation according to the monotonicity order. There are several findings in this article. We point out the importance of an ordering criterion in rule selection for a multi-input FIS before the interpolation process; and hence, the practice of choosing the nearest rules may not be true in this case. To fulfill the monotonicity order, we argue with an example that conventional fuzzy rule interpolation techniques that predict each consequence separately is not suitable in this case. We further suggest another class of interpolation techniques that predicts the consequence of a set of observations simultaneously, instead of separately. This can be accomplished with the use of a search algorithm, such as the brute force, genetic algorithm or etc.

A monotonicity index for the monotone fuzzy modeling problem

In this paper, the problem of maintaining the (global) monotonicity and local monotonicity properties between the input(s) and the output of an FIS model is addressed. This is known as the monotone fuzzy modeling problem. In our previous work, this problem has been tackled by developing some mathematical conditions for an FIS model to observe the monotonicity property. These mathematical conditions are used as a set of governing equations for undertaking FIS modeling problems, and have been extended to some advanced FIS modeling techniques. Here, we examine an alternative to the monotone fuzzy modeling problem by introducing a monotonicity index. The monotonicity index is employed as an approximate indicator to measure the fulfillment of an FIS model to the monotonicity property. It allows the FIS model to be constructed using an optimization method, or be tuned to achieve a better performance, without knowing the exact mathematical conditions of the FIS model to satisfy the monotonicity property. Besides, the monotonicity index can be extended to FIS modeling that involves the local monotonicity problem. We also analyze the relationship between the FIS model and its monotonicity property fulfillment, as well as derived mathematical conditions, using the Monte Carlo method.

On the use of fuzzy inference techniques in assessment models : part I — theoretical properties

An assessment model is a mathematical model that produces a measuring index, either in the form of a numerical score or a category to a situation/object, with respect to the subject of measure. From the numerical score, decision can be made and action can be taken. To allow valid and useful comparisons among various situations/objects according to their associated numerical scores to be made, the monotone output property and the output resolution property are essential in fuzzy inference-based assessment problems. We investigate the conditions for a fuzzy assessment model to fulfill the monotone output property using a derivative approach. A guideline on how the input membership functions should be tuned is also provided. Besides, the output resolution property is defined as the derivative of the output of the assessment model with respect to its input. This derivative should be greater than the minimum resolution required. From the derivative, we suggest improvements to the output resolution property by refining the fuzzy production rules.

On the use of fuzzy inference techniques in assessment models : part II : industrial applications

In this paper, we study the applicability of the monotone output property and the output resolution property in fuzzy assessment models to two industrial Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) problems. First, the effectiveness of the monotone output property in a single-input fuzzy assessment model is demonstrated with a proposed fuzzy occurrence model. Then, the usefulness of the two properties to a multi-input fuzzy assessment model, i.e., the Bowles fuzzy Risk Priority Number (RPN) model, is assessed. The experimental results indicate that both the fuzzy occurrence model and Bowles fuzzy RPN model are able to fulfill the monotone output property, with the derived conditions (in Part I) satisfied. In addition, the proposed rule refinement technique is able to improve the output resolution property of the Bowles fuzzy RPN model.

Paradigm shift to enhanced water supply planning through augmented grids, scarcity pricing and adaptive factory water : a system dynamics approach

This paper details a system dynamics model developed to simulate proposed changes to water governance through the integration of supply, demand and asset management processes. To effectively accomplish this, interconnected feedback loops in tariff structures, demand levels and financing capacity are included in the model design, representing the first comprehensive life-cycle modelling of potable water systems. A number of scenarios were applied to Australia's populated South-east Queensland region, demonstrating that introducing temporary drought pricing (i.e. progressive water prices set inverse with availability), in conjunction with supply augmentation through rain-independent sources, is capable of efficiently providing water security in the future. Modelling demonstrated that this alternative tariff structure reduced demand in scarcity periods thereby preserving supply, whilst revenues are maintained to build new water supply infrastructure. In addition to exploring alternative tariffs, the potential benefits of using adaptive pressure-retarded osmosis desalination plants for both potable water and power generation was explored. This operation of these plants for power production, when they would otherwise be idle, shows promise in reducing their net energy and carbon footprints. Stakeholders in industry, government and academia were engaged in model development and validation. The constructed model displays how water resource systems can be reorganised to cope with systemic change and uncertainty.

An interval type-2 fuzzy logic system-based method for prediction interval construction

This paper introduces a new non-parametric method for uncertainty quantification through construction of prediction intervals (PIs). The method takes the left and right end points of the type-reduced set of an interval type-2 fuzzy logic system (IT2FLS) model as the lower and upper bounds of a PI. No assumption is made in regard to the data distribution, behaviour, and patterns when developing intervals. A training method is proposed to link the confidence level (CL) concept of PIs to the intervals generated by IT2FLS models. The new PI-based training algorithm not only ensures that PIs constructed using IT2FLS models satisfy the CL requirements, but also reduces widths of PIs and generates practically informative PIs. Proper adjustment of parameters of IT2FLSs is performed through the minimization of a PI-based objective function. A metaheuristic method is applied for minimization of the non-linear non-differentiable cost function. Performance of the proposed method is examined for seven synthetic and real world benchmark case studies with homogenous and heterogeneous noise. The demonstrated results indicate that the proposed method is capable of generating high quality PIs. Comparative studies also show that the performance of the proposed method is equal to or better than traditional neural network-based methods for construction of PIs in more than 90% of cases. The superiority is more evident for the case of data with a heterogeneous noise. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

A new monotonicity index for fuzzy rule-based systems

A search in the literature reveals that mathematical conditions (usually sufficient conditions) for the Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) models to satisfy the monotonicity property have been developed. A monotonically-ordered fuzzy rule base is important to maintain the monotonicity property of an FIS. However, it may difficult to obtain a monotonically-ordered fuzzy rule base in practice. We have previously introduced the idea of fuzzy rule relabeling to tackle this problem. In this paper, we further propose a monotonicity index for the FIS system, which serves as a metric to indicate the degree of a fuzzy rule base fulfilling the monotonicity property. The index is useful to provide an indication whether a fuzzy rule base should (or should not) be used in practice, even with fuzzy rule relabeling. To illustrate the idea, the zero-order Sugeno FIS model is exemplified. We add noise as errors into the fuzzy rule base to formulate a set of non-monotone fuzzy rules. As such, the metric also acts as a measure of noise in the fuzzy rule base. The results show that the proposed metric is useful to indicate the degree of a fuzzy rule base fulfilling the monotonicity property.