Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

Structure revision and assignment of absolute stereochemistry of a marine C-21 bisfuranoterpene

The C-21 bisfuranoterpene (-)-isotetradehydrofurospongin-1 (6), previously isolated from a Western Australian Spongia sp., has been reisolated from a specimen of Spirastrella papilosa collected during scientific trawling operations in the Great Australian Eight. A 2D NMR analysis of 6 has prompted reassignment of the published structure 5, while degradation and chiral HPLC analysis have allowed determination of the absolute stereochemistry.

Configuration of stilbene derivatives by (1)H NMR and theoretical calculation of chemical shifts

The direct E/Z configuration assignment of tri- and tetra-substituted stilbenes (and other analogous olefins) when only one of the isomers is available is a quite challenging task. Sometimes, a chemical transformation or some other tedious method is necessary for determination of the double bond substitution pattern. In this paper, we relied on theoretical calculation of chemical shifts as a complementary tool for (1)H NMR determination of the configuration of an alpha-phenylcinnamic acid prepared as a unique isomer by the Perkin reaction. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quality of diabetes care and coronary heart disease absolute risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Australian general practice

Objective: To examine the quality of diabetes care and prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Australian general practice patients with type 2 diabetes and to investigate its relationship with coronary heart disease absolute risk (CHDAR). Methods: A total of 3286 patient records were extracted from registers of patients with type 2 diabetes held by 16 divisions of general practice (250 practices) across Australia for the year 2002. CHDAR was estimated using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study algorithm with higher CHDAR set at a 10 year risk of >15%. Multivariate multilevel logistic regression investigated the association between CHDAR and diabetes care. Results: 47.9% of diabetic patient records had glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) >7%, 87.6% had total cholesterol >= 4.0 mmol/l, and 73.8% had blood pressure (BP) >= 130/85 mm Hg. 57.6% of patients were at a higher CHDAR, 76.8% of whom were not on lipid modifying medication and 66.2% were not on antihypertensive medication. After adjusting for clustering at the general practice level and age, lipid modifying medication was negatively related to CHDAR (odds ratio (OR) 0.84) and total cholesterol. Antihypertensive medication was positively related to systolic BP but negatively related to CHDAR (OR 0.88). Referral to ophthalmologists/optometrists and attendance at other health professionals were not related to CHDAR. Conclusions: At the time of the study the diabetes and CVD preventive care in Australian general practice was suboptimal, even after a number of national initiatives. The Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) guidelines need to be modified to improve CVD preventive care in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Absolute and relative abundance estimates of Australian east cost humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

The humpback whales that migrate along the east coast of Australia were hunted to near-extinction in the 1950s and early 1960s. Two independent series of land-based surveys conducted over the last 25 years during the whales’ northward migration along the Australian coastline have demonstrated a rapid increase in the size of the population. In 2004 we conducted a survey of the migratory population as a continuation of these series of surveys. Two methods of data analysis were used in line with the previous surveys, both for calculation of absolute and relative abundance. We consider the best estimates for 2004 to be 7,090 ± 660 (95% CI) whales with an annual rate of increase of 10.6 ± 0.5% (95% CI) for 1987 – 2004. The rate of increase agrees with those previously obtained for this population and demonstrates the continuation of a strong post-exploitation recovery. While there are still some uncertainties concerning the absolute abundance estimate and structure of this population, the rate of annual increase should be independent of these and highly robust.

Determining when the absolute state complexity of a Hermitian code achieves its DLP bound

Let g be the genus of the Hermitian function field H/F(q)2 and let C-L(D,mQ(infinity)) be a typical Hermitian code of length n. In [Des. Codes Cryptogr., to appear], we determined the dimension/length profile (DLP) lower bound on the state complexity of C-L(D,mQ(infinity)). Here we determine when this lower bound is tight and when it is not. For m less than or equal to n-2/2 or m greater than or equal to n-2/2 + 2g, the DLP lower bounds reach Wolf's upper bound on state complexity and thus are trivially tight. We begin by showing that for about half of the remaining values of m the DLP bounds cannot be tight. In these cases, we give a lower bound on the absolute state complexity of C-L(D,mQ(infinity)), which improves the DLP lower bound. Next we give a good coordinate order for C-L(D,mQ(infinity)). With this good order, the state complexity of C-L(D,mQ(infinity)) achieves its DLP bound (whenever this is possible). This coordinate order also provides an upper bound on the absolute state complexity of C-L(D,mQ(infinity)) (for those values of m for which the DLP bounds cannot be tight). Our bounds on absolute state complexity do not meet for some of these values of m, and this leaves open the question whether our coordinate order is best possible in these cases. A straightforward application of these results is that if C-L(D,mQ(infinity)) is self-dual, then its state complexity (with respect to the lexicographic coordinate order) achieves its DLP bound of n /2 - q(2)/4, and, in particular, so does its absolute state complexity.

Total synthesis and absolute stereochemistry of plakortone D

The first total synthesis of plakortone D is described and thereby establishes the structure and absolute stereochemistry of the most biologically active member of the marine-derived plakortone family. The sterically congested bicyclic lactone core results from a Pd(II)-induced hydroxycyclization−carbonylation−lactonization sequence on an enediol whose chirality was installed by AD-technology. Attachment of the side chain, also constructed using AD-methodology, was achieved by using a modified Julia coupling. The described approach enables acquisition of other plakortones and analogues, in the correct (natural) stereochemical series.

Prediction of absolute rate coefficients and product branching ratios for the C(P-3) plus allene reaction system

Complex chemical reactions in the gas phase can be decomposed into a network of elementary (e.g., unimolecular and bimolecular) steps which may involve multiple reactant channels, multiple intermediates, and multiple products. The modeling of such reactions involves describing the molecular species and their transformation by reaction at a detailed level. Here we focus on a detailed modeling of the C(P-3)+allene (C3H4) reaction, for which molecular beam experiments and theoretical calculations have previously been performed. In our previous calculations, product branching ratios for a nonrotating isomerizing unimolecular system were predicted. We extend the previous calculations to predict absolute unimolecular rate coefficients and branching ratios using microcanonical variational transition state theory (mu-VTST) with full energy and angular momentum resolution. Our calculation of the initial capture rate is facilitated by systematic ab initio potential energy surface calculations that describe the interaction potential between carbon and allene as a function of the angle of attack. Furthermore, the chemical kinetic scheme is enhanced to explicitly treat the entrance channels in terms of a predicted overall input flux and also to allow for the possibility of redissociation via the entrance channels. Thus, the computation of total bimolecular reaction rates and partial capture rates is now possible. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Modelagem e simulação de um secador intermitente de fluxos contracorrentes para frutos do cafeeiro

Este trabalho foi realizado com o objetivo de desenvolver um modelo computacional para simular a secagem de frutos café em um secador intermitente de fluxos contracorrente, empregando a linguagem de simulação EXTEND™ e o Modelo de Thompson (THOMPSON; PEART; FOSTER, 1968). Para validação do modelo desenvolvido foram utilizados dados experimentais obtidos por Silva (1991), em que foram empregados três níveis de temperatura do ar de secagem de 60, 80 e 100 °C. O modelo desenvolvido foi validado, sendo constatados desvios absolutos de 1,8% b.u e 1,1 kg e erros relativos de 11% e 1,6% na previsão dos parâmetros teor de água final e consumo de lenha, respectivamente. O modelo validado foi empregado na condução de experimentos tipo comparação de cenários. O primeiro experimento refere a alterações do ciclo operacional em que foram alterados os tempos de movimentação e de parada do fluxo da massa de grãos. E o segundo refere à alteração da configuração do secador quanto às alturas das câmaras de secagem e descanso. O ciclo operacional com os tempos de movimentação de um minuto e de parada de dezesseis minutos, para a temperatura do ar de secagem de 100 °C, proporcionou o melhor desempenho, sendo constatado tempo secagem de 12,3 h, consumo de lenha de 109,5 kg, consumo específico de energia de 7660 kJ.kg-1 de água evaporada, e capacidade de secagem de 87,86 kg.h-1. Quanto à configuração do secador, o melhor desempenho ocorreu para altura da câmara de secagem de 2,3 m usando a temperatura do ar de secagem de 100 °C, em que foram simulados tempo de secagem de 12,0 h, consumo de lenha de 106,5 kg, consumo específico de energia, de 7433 kJ.kg-1 de água evaporada, e capacidade de secagem de 90 kg.h-1. Desse modo, na condução da secagem de frutos de café em um secador intermitente de fluxos contracorrentes é recomendado o ciclo operacional com tempos de movimentação de um minuto e o de parada de dezesseis minutos, e não empregar a câmara de descanso. Essa conclusão está fundamentada em índices de desempenho do secador. Ressalta-se que não foram simulados os impactos nos parâmetros de qualidade.

The institutional configuration of sport policy in Brazil: organization, evolution and dilemmas

Brazil has become the center of the spotlight of the whole world recently, amongst many other reasons, one of them was because it was chosen to host a series of mega sporting events - Pan American Games in 2007, Confederations Football Cup in 2013, Fifa Football World Cup 2014 Games and 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2016. However, little is known about the country's administrative governmental structure focused on sport policy. The available studies focus their analysis on the sport policies content, but not on the arrangement of its structural decision-making. The main aim of this article is indeed to describe, based on official documentation, the evolution and the current arrangements of the government responsible for the administrative structure for the planning and implementation of sports policies in Brazil. Thus, we tried to list the main problems arising from the organization of the Brazilian sports' management. These problems are: (1) inappropriate institutional structure in terms of human resources and obstacles to participation by other social actors beyond the officials (parliament and members of the Ministry of Sports) in the sports policy; (2) disarticulation between public institutions generating redundancies and conflicts of jurisdiction due to the poor division of labor between bureaucracy agencies; and (3) inadequate planning proved by the lack of organization of some institutions, and by the lack of assessment and continuity of public policies over time. Therefore, we must emphasize those problems from above, and due to these administrative arrangements, Brazilian sports' policy has big challenges in the sport development in this country, which includes the creation of a national "system" for sports and a priority investment in sport education.

A dramatic effect of double bond configuration in N-oxy-3-aza Cope rearrangements: a simple synthesis of functionalised allenes

The first examples of low temperature N-oxy-3-aza Cope rearrangements, leading to functionalised allenes are described, where the Z-configuration of the enaminic double bond in the rearranging system proves critical.

New p-i-n Si : H imager configuration for spatial resolution improvement

Amorphous glass/ZnO-Al/p(a-Si:H)/i(a-Si:H)/n(a-Si1-xCx:H)/Al imagers with different n-layer resistivities were produced by plasma enhanced chemical vapour deposition technique (PE-CVD). An image is projected onto the sensing element and leads to spatially confined depletion regions that can be readout by scanning the photodiode with a low-power modulated laser beam. The essence of the scheme is the analog readout, and the absence of semiconductor arrays or electrode potential manipulations to transfer the information coming from the transducer. The influence of the intensity of the optical image projected onto the sensor surface is correlated with the sensor output characteristics (sensitivity, linearity blooming, resolution and signal-to-noise ratio) are analysed for different material compositions (0.5 < x < 1). The results show that the responsivity and the spatial resolution are limited by the conductivity of the doped layers. An enhancement of one order of magnitude in the image intensity signal and on the spatial resolution are achieved at 0.2 mW cm(-2) light flux by decreasing the n-layer conductivity by the same amount. A physical model supported by electrical simulation gives insight into the image-sensing technique used.

Meta-heuristics self-configuration for scheduling

Scheduling resolution requires the intervention of highly skilled human problemsolvers. This is a very hard and challenging domain because current systems are becoming more and more complex, distributed, interconnected and subject to rapidly changing. A natural Autonomic Computing evolution in relation to Current Computing is to provide systems with Self-Managing ability with a minimum human interference. This paper addresses the resolution of complex scheduling problems using cooperative negotiation. A Multi-Agent Autonomic and Meta-heuristics based framework with self-configuring capabilities is proposed.