Räumliche Modellierung der Dynamik von Landnutzung in Hessen und ihrer Wirkung auf die biologische Kohlenstoffspeicherung - Entwicklung eines GIS-basierten Modellsystems

Die gegenwärtige Entwicklung der internationalen Klimapolitik verlangt von Deutschland eine Reduktion seiner Treibhausgasemissionen. Wichtigstes Treibhausgas ist Kohlendioxid, das durch die Verbrennung fossiler Energieträger in die Atmosphäre freigesetzt wird. Die Reduktionsziele können prinzipiell durch eine Verminderung der Emissionen sowie durch die Schaffung von Kohlenstoffsenken erreicht werden. Senken beschreiben dabei die biologische Speicherung von Kohlenstoff in Böden und Wäldern. Eine wichtige Einflussgröße auf diese Prozesse stellt die räumliche Dynamik der Landnutzung einer Region dar. In dieser Arbeit wird das Modellsystem HILLS entwickelt und zur Simulation dieser komplexen Wirkbeziehungen im Bundesland Hessen genutzt. Ziel ist es, mit HILLS über eine Analyse des aktuellen Zustands hinaus auch Szenarien über Wege der zukünftigen regionalen Entwicklung von Landnutzung und ihrer Wirkung auf den Kohlenstoffhaushalt bis 2020 zu untersuchen. Für die Abbildung der räumlichen und zeitlichen Dynamik von Landnutzung in Hessen wird das Modell LUCHesse entwickelt. Seine Aufgabe ist die Simulation der relevanten Prozesse auf einem 1 km2 Raster, wobei die Raten der Änderung exogen als Flächentrends auf Ebene der hessischen Landkreise vorgegeben werden. LUCHesse besteht aus Teilmodellen für die Prozesse: (A) Ausbreitung von Siedlungs- und Gewerbefläche, (B) Strukturwandel im Agrarsektor sowie (C) Neuanlage von Waldflächen (Aufforstung). Jedes Teilmodell umfasst Methoden zur Bewertung der Standorteignung der Rasterzellen für unterschiedliche Landnutzungsklassen und zur Zuordnung der Trendvorgaben zu solchen Rasterzellen, die jeweils am besten für eine Landnutzungsklasse geeignet sind. Eine Validierung der Teilmodelle erfolgt anhand von statistischen Daten für den Zeitraum von 1990 bis 2000. Als Ergebnis eines Simulationslaufs werden für diskrete Zeitschritte digitale Karten der Landnutzugsverteilung in Hessen erzeugt. Zur Simulation der Kohlenstoffspeicherung wird eine modifizierte Version des Ökosystemmodells Century entwickelt (GIS-Century). Sie erlaubt einen gesteuerten Simulationslauf in Jahresschritten und unterstützt die Integration des Modells als Komponente in das HILLS Modellsystem. Es werden verschiedene Anwendungsschemata für GIS-Century entwickelt, mit denen die Wirkung der Stilllegung von Ackerflächen, der Aufforstung sowie der Bewirtschaftung bereits bestehender Wälder auf die Kohlenstoffspeicherung untersucht werden kann. Eine Validierung des Modells und der Anwendungsschemata erfolgt anhand von Feld- und Literaturdaten. HILLS implementiert eine sequentielle Kopplung von LUCHesse mit GIS-Century. Die räumliche Kopplung geschieht dabei auf dem 1 km2 Raster, die zeitliche Kopplung über die Einführung eines Landnutzungsvektors, der die Beschreibung der Landnutzungsänderung einer Rasterzelle während des Simulationszeitraums enthält. Außerdem integriert HILLS beide Modelle über ein dienste- und datenbankorientiertes Konzept in ein Geografisches Informationssystem (GIS). Auf diesem Wege können die GIS-Funktionen zur räumlichen Datenhaltung und Datenverarbeitung genutzt werden. Als Anwendung des Modellsystems wird ein Referenzszenario für Hessen mit dem Zeithorizont 2020 berechnet. Das Szenario setzt im Agrarsektor eine Umsetzung der AGENDA 2000 Politik voraus, die in großem Maße zu Stilllegung von Ackerflächen führt, während für den Bereich Siedlung und Gewerbe sowie Aufforstung die aktuellen Trends der Flächenausdehnung fortgeschrieben werden. Mit HILLS ist es nun möglich, die Wirkung dieser Landnutzungsänderungen auf die biologische Kohlenstoffspeicherung zu quantifizieren. Während die Ausdehnung von Siedlungsflächen als Kohlenstoffquelle identifiziert werden kann (37 kt C/a), findet sich die wichtigste Senke in der Bewirtschaftung bestehender Waldflächen (794 kt C/a). Weiterhin führen die Stilllegung von Ackerfläche (26 kt C/a) sowie Aufforstung (29 kt C/a) zu einer zusätzlichen Speicherung von Kohlenstoff. Für die Kohlenstoffspeicherung in Böden zeigen die Simulationsexperimente sehr klar, dass diese Senke nur von beschränkter Dauer ist.

Changes in amino acid enantiomers and microbial performance in soils from a subtropical mountain oasis in Oman abandoned for different periods

An important feature of maintaining the agricultural stability in millennia-old mountain oases of northern Oman is the temporary abandonment of terraces. To analyse the effects of a fallow period on soil microbial performance, i.e. microbial activity and microbial biomass, samples of eight terrace soils abandoned for different periods were collected in situ, assigned to four fallow age classes and incubated for 30 days in the laboratory after rewetting. The younger fallow age classes of 1 and 5 years were based on the records of the farmers’ recollections, the two older fallow age classes of 10–20 and 25–60 years according to the increase in the D -to- L ratio of valine and leucine enantiomers. The increase in these two ratios was in agreement with that of the D -to- L ratio of lysine. The strongest relationship was observed between the increase in the D -to- L ratio of lysine and the decrease in soil microbial biomass C. However, the most stringent coherence between the increase in fallow age and soil properties was revealed by the decreases in cumulative respiration and net N mineralisation rates with decreasing availability of substrate to soil microorganisms. During the 30-day incubation following rewetting, relative changes in microbial activity (respiration and net N mineralisation) and microbial biomass (C and N)indices were similar in the eight terrace soils on a fallow age-class-specific level, indicating that the same basic processes occurred in all of the sandy terrace soils investigated.

Análisis de las necesidades del estudiante en la Universidad Colegio Mayor de Nuestra Señora

En la actualidad y de acuerdo al informe del Sistema Nacional de Instituciones de Educación Superior (SNIES) la deserción estudiantil en la Educación Superior está en el 52%. Cada Institución de Educación Superior (IES) realiza esfuerzos por retener y sostener en el tiempo a los estudiantes académicamente viables; estos esfuerzos están divididos en diferentes frentes: Académico, Financiero, Psicológico y Cultural. Desde la estructura administrativa se busca responder a esta necesidad, y para ello, con el fin de contrarrestar el retiro o abandono de los estudiantes de pregrado y posgrado en la Universidad del Rosario, identificado mediante la aplicación de la metodología propuesta por La Estrategia de los Cuatro Círculos y el Método MEYEP, ante cuyas conclusiones y recomendaciones se procedió a realizar un proyecto que pretende conformar una Unidad de Gestión Integral de Apoyo al Estudiante (UGIAE). Unidad que constituye una iniciativa por integrar los esfuerzos en un organismo que responda a las necesidades de los estudiantes y cuya directriz se enmarque en el contexto del Plan Integral de Desarrollo – PID – de la Universidad. La finalidad de la UGIAE es facilitar a los estudiantes académicamente viables de la Universidad del Rosario, la culminación de sus estudios; para lo cual se pretende el mejor aprovechamiento de las competencias humanas, el trabajo en equipo, y la transdisciplinariedad que canalice los esfuerzos colectivos; para este efecto se desarrolla un modelo de simulación en Stella en el que convergen y se aplican las recomendaciones finales del presente documento.

Causas que motivan la conformación de comunidades alternativas como crítica a la sociedad occidental moderna. Caso Kunagua, Silvania, Colombia

La conformación de comunidades alternativas comúnmente se genera tras el abandono voluntario de ciudades occidentales modernas y actualmente está cobrando mayor importancia a nivel mundial. Por lo general las comunidades alternativas se caracterizan por ser asentamientos humanos que buscan integrar todos los aspectos de la vida en un entorno saludable, en el que se promueve la auto-sostenibilidad. Las causas de tipo político, económico y espiritual que motivan esta decisión en ciertos grupos de personas, relejan una posición no solo crítica sino también activa frente a la sociedad contemporánea. El presente estudio de caso pretende identificar estas causas y articularlas para presentar una crítica a la sociedad occidental moderna, sociedad en la cual se le ha dado preponderancia al método científico para explicar incluso el origen de los seres humanos, reconociendo la razón como modo supremo de conocimiento y olvidando por tanto que existe otro modo de conocer superior y previo a la razón.

Análisis de la ayuda oficial al desarrollo. estudio de caso: programa conjunto de UNICEF y UNFPA sobre la mutilación genital femenina en Kenia (2008-2012)

El interés de este estudio de caso es analizar el Programa Conjunto de UNFPA y UNICEF sobre MGF/E en Kenia bajo la luz de los postulados poscolonialistas. Partiendo de la idea de que la MGF es una manifestación de las desigualdades de género, se argumenta que el PC reproduce la imagen de la mujer keniana como una víctima del poder masculino. A partir de esta imagen se deslegitima el orden cultural de los grupos que siguen esta tradición, afectando las lógicas de unidad y cohesión de la sociedad. El análisis de este tipo de dinámicas permite comprender mejor los procesos de intervención de las organizaciones internacionales sobre las estructuras sociales de actores frágiles del sistema internacional.

Causas de abandono do desporto escolar

RESUMO: Numa sociedade cada vez mais exigente, onde o acesso a estudos e estatísticas se torna cada vez mais fácil, deve consciencializar-se os intervenientes no contexto desportivo para a falta de actividade física e desportiva dos nossos jovens no seu dia-a-dia, bem como o seu abandono precoce da prática desportiva. Esse abandono apresenta-se como um fenómeno multifactorial, na medida em que são diversos os contextos e motivos que o determinam. Na actividade diária de professores/treinadores, os aspectos relacionados com os factores que conduzem ao abandono dos praticantes devem merecer uma atenção permanente. Torna-se importante responder às perguntas “o abandono surge porquê?”; “Quais as causas?” ou “Quais os factores?”, sendo esse o principal objectivo deste estudo. A amostra foi constituída por alunos de ambos os sexos, de diversas escolas de Lisboa, num total de 174 inquiridos dos ensinos básico e secundário, que abandonaram a prática do desporto escolar durante o ano lectivo 2011/2012. Foi aplicado como instrumento de medida o Questionário de Razões para o Abandono da Prática do Desporto Escolar – QRAPDE versão adaptada para o desporto escolar com base num instrumento similar desenvolvido por Cruz e colaboradores (1988; 1995). Os resultados evidenciam como causas mais importantes para o abandono as questões relacionadas com a dimensão “Falta de tempo” com média de 1,84, seguida da dimensão “Orientação desportiva” apresentando uma média de 1,44 e, como causa menos importante, a dimensão “Indicadores de treino e competição” (1,26). A todos os intervenientes desportivos, especialmente professores, cabe uma introspecção sobre os factores de abandono. Acreditamos que com uma orientação consciente e sustentada será possível inverter o abandono do desporto escolar pelos alunos.ABSTACT: In an increasingly demanding society, where access to studies and statistics is becoming rather easy, all subjects for sport activities must be aware concerning the lack of physical and sports activity of our young people in their day-to-day life, as well as the early withdrawn. This dropout mus be presented as a multifactorial phenomenon, as there are several contexts and motives which determine it. In daily work of teachers/coaches, aspects related to the factors that lead to the abandonment of the youngsters deserve continued attention. Therefore, it is important to answer the questions "Why does abandonment arises?" "What are the causes?" or "What are the factors? This is the key issue and the goal of this study. The sample was 174 students of both genders, of elementary and secondary school grade, from several schools in Lisbon, who had abandoned the practice of school sports during the academic year 2011/2012. To determine the reasons of dropout we use the Questionnaire of Reasons for the Abandonment of School Sports – QRAPDE, version adapted for school sports based on a similar instrument developed by Cruz et al (1988; 1995) The results show that the most important causes for the abandonment are related to the dimension "lack of time" with an average of 1.84, followed by the dimension "Sports Guidance" with an average of 1.44, and, as the less important cause, the "Indicators of training and competition" (1.26). All responsible intervenients, namely teachers, should thoroughly reflect about the factors of dropout. We believe that with a conscious and sustainable guidance it will be possible to reverse the abandonment of school sports by students.

Carbon addition alters vegetation composition on ex-arable fields

1. Recent changes in European agricultural policy have led to measures to reverse the loss of species-rich grasslands through the creation of new areas on ex-arable land. Ex-arable soils are often characterized by high inorganic nitrogen (N) levels, which lead to the rapid establishment of annual and fast-growing perennial species during the initial phase of habitat creation. The addition of carbon (C) to the soil has been suggested as a countermeasure to reduce plant-available N and alter competitive interactions among plant species. 2. To test the effect of C addition on habitat creation on ex-arable land, an experiment was set up on two recently abandoned fields in Switzerland and on two 6-year-old restoration sites in the UK. Carbon was added as a mixture of either sugar and sawdust or wood chips and sawdust during a period of 2 years. The effects of C addition on soil parameters and vegetation composition were assessed during the period of C additions and 1 year thereafter. 3. Soil nitrate concentrations were reduced at all sites within weeks of the first C addition, and remained low until cessation of the C additions. The overall effect of C addition on vegetation was a reduction in above-ground biomass and cover. At the Swiss sites, the addition of sugar and sawdust led to a relative increase in legume and forb cover and to a decrease in grass cover. The soil N availability, composition of soil micro-organisms and vegetation characteristics continued to be affected after cessation of C additions. 4. Synthesis and applications. The results suggest that C addition in grassland restoration is a useful management method to reduce N availability on ex-arable land. Carbon addition alters the vegetation composition by creating gaps in the vegetation that facilitates the establishment of late-seral plant species, and is most effective when started immediately after the abandonment of arable fields and applied over several years.

Robust abandoned object detection integrating wide area visual surveillance and social context

This paper presents a video surveillance framework that robustly and efficiently detects abandoned objects in surveillance scenes. The framework is based on a novel threat assessment algorithm which combines the concept of ownership with automatic understanding of social relations in order to infer abandonment of objects. Implementation is achieved through development of a logic-based inference engine based on Prolog. Threat detection performance is conducted by testing against a range of datasets describing realistic situations and demonstrates a reduction in the number of false alarms generated. The proposed system represents the approach employed in the EU SUBITO project (Surveillance of Unattended Baggage and the Identification and Tracking of the Owner).

The abandoned mandatory OFR: a lost opportunity for SER?

Purpose – An important outcome of the UK Company Law Review (CLR) involved draft regulations for a mandatory operating and financial review (OFR). The unprecedented abandonment of this mandatory OFR in November 2005 threw debate about the genuine motivations underlying the CLR into disarray. This paper seeks to reinterpret the abandonment of a mandatory OFR using interview research. Design/methodology/approach – The authors conducted a series of 24 interviews with companies from the FTSE100 between May and August 2004, prior to the abandonment. Findings – The interviews showed that the OFR was perceived as an appropriate vehicle for social and environmental reporting (SER). The interviewees considered that a mandatory OFR would provide a means of forcing SER into the mainstream and making it mandatory at a basic level. The interviews revealed that processes for the identification of material SER differ widely between organisations, ranging from embryonic to highly structured. Further, interviewees believed that directors had the final veto on inclusion of information. Despite directors' inclination to hide behind materiality as a means of avoiding SER, interviewees did not view the proposed mandatory OFR as “greenwash” but as a vehicle that would increase stakeholder confidence, as processes underlying the proposed OFR would be audited. Practical implications – The research implies that abandoning the mandatory OFR represented a lost opportunity for SER. Originality/value – The paper provides new evidence on the processes of materiality decision making in the SER area as well as strong endorsement of the mandatory OFR, contrary to the government turn-around.

Pre-Columbian raised-field agriculture and land use in the Bolivian Amazon

We present an integrated palaeoecological and archaeobotanical study of pre-Columbian raised-field agriculture in the Llanos de Moxos, a vast seasonally inundated forest–savanna mosaic in the Bolivian Amazon. Phytoliths from excavated raised-field soil units, together with pollen and charcoal in sediment cores from two oxbow lakes, were analysed to provide a history of land use and agriculture at the El Cerro raised-field site. The construction of raised fields involved the removal of savanna trees, and gallery forest was cleared from the area by AD 310. Despite the low fertility of Llanos de Moxos soils, we determined that pre-Columbian raised-field agriculture sufficiently improved soil conditions for maize cultivation. Fire was used as a common management practice until AD 1300, at which point, the land-use strategy shifted towards less frequent burning of savannas and raised fields. Alongside a reduction in the use of fire, sweet potato cultivation and the exploitation of Inga fruits formed part of a mixed resource strategy from AD 1300 to 1450. The pre-Columbian impact on the landscape began to lessen around AD 1450, as shown by an increase in savanna trees and gallery forest. Although agriculture at the site began to decline prior to European arrival, the abandonment of raised fields was protracted, with evidence of sweet potato cultivation occurring as late as AD 1800.

POSTMARITAL RESIDENCE PRACTICE IN SOUTHERN BRAZILIAN COASTAL GROUPS: CONTINUITY AND CHANGE

The coastal plains of the States of Parana and Santa Catarina, in Southern Brazil, were first settled around 6000 B.P. by shellmound builders, a successful fisher-hunter-gatherer population that inhabited the coastal lowlands practically unchanged for almost five thousand years. Shellmounds were typically occupied as residential sites as well as cemeteries, and are usually associated with rich alimentary zones. Around 1200 B.P., the first evidence of ceramics brought from the interior is found in coastal areas, and together with ceramics there is a progressive abandonment of shellmound construction in favor of flat cold shallow sites. Here we consider if these changes were reflected in the postmarital residence practice of coastal groups, i.e., if the arrival or intensification of contact with groups from the interior resulted in changes in this aspect of social structure among the coastal groups. To test the postmarital residence practice we analyzed within-group variability ratios between males and females, following previous studies on the topic. and between-group, correlations between Mahalanobis distances and geographic distances. The results suggest that in the pre-ceramic series a matrilocal, postmarital residential system predominated, while in the ceramic period there was a shift toward patrilocality. This favors the hypothesis that the changes experienced by coastal groups after 1200 B.P. affected not only their economy and material culture, but important aspects of their sociopolitical organization as well.

Risco de abandono de relacionamento

This paper presents a study carried out with customers with credit card of a large retailer to measure the risk of abandonment of a relationship, when this has already purchase history. Two activities are the most important in this study: the theoretical and methodological procedures. The first step was to the understanding of the problem, the importance of theme and the definition of search methods. The study brings a bibliographic survey comprising several authors and shows that the loyalty of customers is the basis that gives sustainability and profitability for organizations of various market segments, examines the satisfaction as the key to success for achievement and specially for the loyalty of customers. To perform this study were adjusted logistic-linear models and through the test Kolmogorov - Smirnov (KS) and the curve Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) selected the best model. Had been used cadastral and transactional data of 100,000 customers of credit card issuer, the software used was SPSS which is a modern system of data manipulation, statistical analysis and presentation graphics. In research, we identify the risk of each customer leave the product through a score.

Subcultura tuning: a identidade estendida na personalidade de automóveis

The admiration of people for automobiles has been known and revealed for many years all over the world. Being through academic studies, proprietor declaration and admirers, the automobile is an object of desire, admiration, love, passion, dream, pride and accomplishment which, with all of this, promotes various types of feelings with the identification, discrimination, expression and the projection of identity. This research was based on the theories about consumers¿ behaviors, self-concept and extended self. It'll be approached in a qualitative and exploratory way the personal behavior of the consumers who personalizes their automobile, the consumer Tuning. The Objective of this project is to explore how the ¿Tuners¿ use a personalized car to construct their social identity. Supplementary, was explored which factors commence and initiated the extension process of self-automobile and also, how they connect with their object and why this relationship is establish this way. Seven people were interviewed of the male sex between 19 and 33 years old, living in the stated of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, during the period of September and October of the year 2007. The results observed were that the cars, like objects, can literally broaden its owner¿s personality. The creation process, sustentation and nutrition of the ¿Self¿ through the car can be observed in the personalization of their own cars, with this, using like the middle and end. It was also observed that the begin of the personalization phenomenon of automobiles in Brazil is began, mainly, in the 21 century with the diffuser of the culture, the cinema, evince even more, processes that already existent in the extension of the personalized cars. Observing that a personalized automobile tents to be in a free way, like a distance, when possible, from intransigence of models or imposition of the ways to be accomplished. Definitively, stories like: ¿My car is just a useful way to travel which I use only when necessary¿ will not be found in this research.

Redução do imposto sobre produtos industrializados: uma análise econômico-tributária dos reais efeitos das medidas de incentivo ao mercado automotivo

Aborda-se as medidas de redução da alíquota do Imposto sobre Produtos Industrializados para o mercado automotivo, como instrumento extrafiscal de incentivo ao setor em questão, diante dos efeitos da crise econômica mundial de 2008. O estudo efetuado tem como objetivo verificar os reais efeitos econômico-tributários da redução do IPI para o setor automotivo, verificando se as vendas, de fato, aumentaram com os programas de incentivo, assim como em que medida o consumidor final foi beneficiado pela desoneração tributária concedida pelo Governo. Como forma de viabilizar o estudo proposto, serão analisados os diferentes programas de incentivo ao setor automobilístico, levando em consideração seus períodos de vigência e evolução das alíquotas no decorrer do tempo. Nesse sentido, demonstra-se necessário analisar a progressão das vendas no período analisado, assim como a evolução dos preços dos automóveis objetos do benefício fiscal. Conforme se verificará, as medidas de redução do IPI proporcionaram a recuperação do setor automotivo, com um considerável aumento nas vendas, além de terem beneficiado o consumidor final, com uma significativa redução do preço de mercado dos automóveis.

Saúde Mental e enfermagem: em busca da integralidade na ESF

The present work shows an inquiry about the conceptions and practical work of the nursing professionals on the accompaniment of mental sick patients in the Family s Health Strategy, under the approach of the completeness in health. The justification of this research is given by bringing an special attention concerning the subjet to these professionals of health: the gradual abandonment of the traditional manicomial model leads to the insertion of mental patients in the community . The nursing professionals must be prepared to receive these patients in the basic net of health and contribute to help their adaptation and insertion in the social environment as citizen. In this context, considering the entire attention to the mental health, it is important to detach that the assistance to the patient must search his reinsertion in the community by providing programs that develops his sociability. This analytical study was developed using a qualitative approach and a thematic verbal history. Ten nurses of Nova Natal s Health of the Family Unit, of Felipe Camarão Mista s Unit and of Cidade da Esperança s Health Unit contributed for its development . The information was acquired through an instrument research that made possible the accomplishment of the interviews. These ones were set previously and counted on the assent of the participants. The interviews were recorded and analyzed in accordance with the pertinent literature concerning the subject. The aggregation of the information was then discussed. At this moment three thematic axles were defined dividing the categories of analysis. According to the results of the interviews, the practical procedure given to the patients with mental upheaval is resumed by the prescription of psicotroprics medicaments. It doesn t provide an accompaniment by the professionals of health, specifically, nurses, to the patients and their families. The lack of qualification and a multi-professional team emerged as one of the challenges for the implementation of practical procedures towards the patients with mental upheaval. Therefore, the results of this research show the necessity of transformations in the current scene of the mental health in the Family s Health Strategy. These changes can be reached by politics investments on the mental health area, not only financially but by providing human resources that should allow the professionals to exert the completeness procedures