Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

A 49 year hindcast of surface winds over the Iberian Peninsula

The use of hindcast climatic data is quite extended for multiple applications. However, this approach needs the support of a validation process to allow its drawbacks and, therefore, confidence levels to be assessed. In this work, the strategy relies on an hourly wind database resulting from a dynamical downscaling experiment, with a spatial resolution of 10 km, covering the Iberian Peninsula (IP), driven by the ERA40 reanalysis (1959–2001) extended by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) analysis (2002–2007) and comprising two main steps. Initially, the skill of the simulation is evaluated comparing the quality-tested observational database (Lorente-Plazas et al., 2014) at local and regional scales. The results show that the model is able to portray the main features of the wind over the IP: annual cycles, wind roses, spatial and temporal variability, as well as the response to different circulation types. In addition, there is a significant added value of the simulation with respect to driving conditions, especially in regions with a complex orography. However, some problems are evident, the major drawback being the systematic overestimation of the wind speed, which is mainly attributed to a missrepresentation of frictional forces. The model skill is also lower along the Mediterranean coast and for the Pyrenees. In a second phase, the high spatio-temporal resolution of the pseudo-real wind database is used to explore the limitations of the observational database. It is shown that missing values do not affect the characterisation of the wind climate over the IP, while the length of the observational period (6 years) is sufficient for most regions, with only a few exceptions. The spatial distribution of the observational sampling schemes should be enhanced to improve the correct assessment of all IP wind regimes, particularly in some mountainous areas.

Pasture degradation modifies the water and carbon cycles of the Tibetan highlands

The Tibetan Plateau has a significant role with regard to atmospheric circulation and the monsoon in particular. Changes between a closed plant cover and open bare soil are one of the striking effects of land use degradation observed with unsustainable range management or climate change, but experiments investigating changes of surface properties and processes together with atmospheric feedbacks are rare and have not been undertaken in the world's two largest alpine ecosystems, the alpine steppe and the Kobresia pygmaea pastures of the Tibetan Plateau. We connected measurements of micro-lysimeter, chamber, 13C labelling, and eddy covariance and combined the observations with land surface and atmospheric models, adapted to the highland conditions. This allowed us to analyse how three degradation stages affect the water and carbon cycle of pastures on the landscape scale within the core region of the Kobresia pygmaea ecosystem. The study revealed that increasing degradation of the Kobresia turf affects carbon allocation and strongly reduces the carbon uptake, compromising the function of Kobresia pastures as a carbon sink. Pasture degradation leads to a shift from transpiration to evaporation while a change in the sum of evapotranspiration over a longer period cannot be confirmed. The results show an earlier onset of convection and cloud generation, likely triggered by a shift in evapotranspiration timing when dominated by evaporation. Consequently, precipitation starts earlier and clouds decrease the incoming solar radiation. In summary, the changes in surface properties by pasture degradation found on the highland have a significant influence on larger scales.

The gene for histone RNA hairpin binding protein is located on human chromosome 4 and encodes a novel type of RNA binding protein.

The hairpin structure at the 3' end of animal histone mRNAs controls histone RNA 3' processing, nucleocytoplasmic transport, translation and stability of histone mRNA. Functionally overlapping, if not identical, proteins binding to the histone RNA hairpin have been identified in nuclear and polysomal extracts. Our own results indicated that these hairpin binding proteins (HBPs) bind their target RNA as monomers and that the resulting ribonucleoprotein complexes are extremely stable. These features prompted us to select for HBP-encoding human cDNAs by RNA-mediated three-hybrid selection in Saccharomyces cerevesiae. Whole cell extract from one selected clone contained a Gal4 fusion protein that interacted with histone hairpin RNA in a sequence- and structure-specific manner similar to a fraction enriched for bovine HBP, indicating that the cDNA encoded HBP. DNA sequence analysis revealed that the coding sequence did not contain any known RNA binding motifs. The HBP gene is composed of eight exons covering 19.5 kb on the short arm of chromosome 4. Translation of the HBP open reading frame in vitro produced a 43 kDa protein with RNA binding specificity identical to murine or bovine HBP. In addition, recombinant HBP expressed in S. cerevisiae was functional in histone pre-mRNA processing, confirming that we have indeed identified the human HBP gene.

Sedimentological processes and environmental variability at Lake Ohrid (Macedonia, Albania) between 637 ka and the present

Lake Ohrid (Macedonia, Albania) is thought to be more than 1.2 million years old and host more than 300 endemic species. As a target of the International Continental scientific Drilling Program (ICDP), a successful deep drilling campaign was carried out within the scope of the Scientific Collaboration on Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid (SCOPSCO) project in 2013. Here, we present lithological, sedimentological, and (bio-)geochemical data from the upper 247.8 m composite depth of the overall 569 m long DEEP site sediment succession from the central part of the lake. According to an age model, which is based on 11 tephra layers (first-order tie points) and on tuning of bio-geochemical proxy data to orbital parameters (second-order tie points), the analyzed sediment sequence covers the last 637 kyr. The DEEP site sediment succession consists of hemipelagic sediments, which are interspersed by several tephra layers and infrequent, thin (< 5 cm) mass wasting deposits. The hemipelagic sediments can be classified into three different lithotypes. Lithotype 1 and 2 deposits comprise calcareous and slightly calcareous silty clay and are predominantly attributed to interglacial periods with high primary productivity in the lake during summer and reduced mixing during winter. The data suggest that high ion and nutrient concentrations in the lake water promoted calcite precipitation and diatom growth in the epilimnion during MIS15, 13, and 5. Following a strong primary productivity, highest interglacial temperatures can be reported for marine isotope stages (MIS) 11 and 5, whereas MIS15, 13, 9, and 7 were comparably cooler. Lithotype 3 deposits consist of clastic, silty clayey material and predominantly represent glacial periods with low primary productivity during summer and longer and intensified mixing during winter. The data imply that the most severe glacial conditions at Lake Ohrid persisted during MIS16, 12, 10, and 6, whereas somewhat warmer temperatures can be inferred for MIS14, 8, 4, and 2. Interglacial-like conditions occurred during parts of MIS14 and 8.

ER strikes again: Proteostasis Dysfunction In ALS

The precise contribution of endoplasmic reticulum (ER) chaperone protein disulfide isomerase (PDI) variants in human amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients to the pathogenesis of ALS remained unclear. In the present study, Woehlbier et al (2016) demonstrated that these PDI variants are capable of altering motor neuron morphology, impairing the expression of synaptic proteins, and compromising neuromuscular junction (NMJ) integrity.

Environmental control on the occurrence of high-coercivity magnetic minerals and formation of iron sulfides in a 640 ka sediment sequence from Lake Ohrid (Balkans)

The bulk magnetic mineral record from Lake Ohrid, spanning the past 637 kyr, reflects large-scale shifts in hydrological conditions, and, superimposed, a strong signal of environmental conditions on glacial–interglacial and millennial timescales. A shift in the formation of early diagenetic ferrimagnetic iron sulfides to siderites is observed around 320 ka. This change is probably associated with variable availability of sulfide in the pore water. We propose that sulfate concentrations were significantly higher before  ∼  320 ka, due to either a higher sulfate flux or lower dilution of lake sulfate due to a smaller water volume. Diagenetic iron minerals appear more abundant during glacials, which are generally characterized by higher Fe / Ca ratios in the sediments. While in the lower part of the core the ferrimagnetic sulfide signal overprints the primary detrital magnetic signal, the upper part of the core is dominated by variable proportions of high- to low-coercivity iron oxides. Glacial sediments are characterized by high concentration of high-coercivity magnetic minerals (hematite, goethite), which relate to enhanced erosion of soils that had formed during preceding interglacials. Superimposed on the glacial–interglacial behavior are millennial-scale oscillations in the magnetic mineral composition that parallel variations in summer insolation. Like the processes on glacial–interglacial timescales, low summer insolation and a retreat in vegetation resulted in enhanced erosion of soil material. Our study highlights that rock-magnetic studies, in concert with geochemical and sedimentological investigations, provide a multi-level contribution to environmental reconstructions, since the magnetic properties can mirror both environmental conditions on land and intra-lake processes.

Desarrollo y crisis del historicismo como metodología para nuestra historia de las ideas

Fil: Arpini, Adriana. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo