Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria

This paper combines multivariate density forecasts of output growth, inflationand interest rates from a suite of models. An out-of-sample weighting scheme based onthe predictive likelihood as proposed by Eklund and Karlsson (2005) and Andersson andKarlsson (2007) is used to combine the models. Three classes of models are considered: aBayesian vector autoregression (BVAR), a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Using Australiandata, we find that, at short forecast horizons, the Bayesian VAR model is assignedthe most weight, while at intermediate and longer horizons the factor model is preferred.The DSGE model is assigned little weight at all horizons, a result that can be attributedto the DSGE model producing density forecasts that are very wide when compared withthe actual distribution of observations. While a density forecast evaluation exercise revealslittle formal evidence that the optimally combined densities are superior to those from thebest-performing individual model, or a simple equal-weighting scheme, this may be a resultof the short sample available.

Quality assessment of cardiovascular magnetic resonance in the setting of the European CMR registry: description and validation of standardized criteria.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) has become an important diagnostic imaging modality in cardiovascular medicine. However, insufficient image quality may compromise its diagnostic accuracy. We aimed to describe and validate standardized criteria to evaluate a) cine steady-state free precession (SSFP), b) late gadolinium enhancement (LGE), and c) stress first-pass perfusion images. These criteria will serve for quality assessment in the setting of the Euro-CMR registry. METHODS: Thirty-five qualitative criteria were defined (scores 0-3) with lower scores indicating better image quality. In addition, quantitative parameters were measured yielding 2 additional quality criteria, i.e. signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of non-infarcted myocardium (as a measure of correct signal nulling of healthy myocardium) for LGE and % signal increase during contrast medium first-pass for perfusion images. These qualitative and quantitative criteria were assessed in a total of 90 patients (60 patients scanned at our own institution at 1.5T (n=30) and 3T (n=30) and in 30 patients randomly chosen from the Euro-CMR registry examined at 1.5T). Analyses were performed by 2 SCMR level-3 experts, 1 trained study nurse, and 1 trained medical student. RESULTS: The global quality score was 6.7±4.6 (n=90, mean of 4 observers, maximum possible score 64), range 6.4-6.9 (p=0.76 between observers). It ranged from 4.0-4.3 for 1.5T (p=0.96 between observers), from 5.9-6.9 for 3T (p=0.33 between observers), and from 8.6-10.3 for the Euro-CMR cases (p=0.40 between observers). The inter- (n=4) and intra-observer (n=2) agreement for the global quality score, i.e. the percentage of assignments to the same quality tertile ranged from 80% to 88% and from 90% to 98%, respectively. The agreement for the quantitative assessment for LGE images (scores 0-2 for SNR <2, 2-5, >5, respectively) ranged from 78-84% for the entire population, and 70-93% at 1.5T, 64-88% at 3T, and 72-90% for the Euro-CMR cases. The agreement for perfusion images (scores 0-2 for %SI increase >200%, 100%-200%,<100%, respectively) ranged from 81-91% for the entire population, and 76-100% at 1.5T, 67-96% at 3T, and 62-90% for the Euro-CMR registry cases. The intra-class correlation coefficient for the global quality score was 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: The described criteria for the assessment of CMR image quality are robust with a good inter- and intra-observer agreement. Further research is needed to define the impact of image quality on the diagnostic and prognostic yield of CMR studies.

The Library: from classic to postmodern

In its long and irregular transition, from traditional library to the electronic book we have seen combining and alternating the hybrid, electronic and most recently the digital libraries. All these concepts which are combining and are conditioning each other, are referring to methods of organization and use of an informational content (which exists or not in an informational structure).

Decreased Probability of Initial Pain Cessation in Classic Trigeminal Neuralgia Treated With Gamma Knife Surgery in Case of Previous Microvascular Decompression: A Prospective Series of 45 Patients With >1 Year of Follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Microvascular decompression (MVD) is the reference technique for pharmacoresistant trigeminal neuralgia (TN). OBJECTIVE: To establish whether the safety and efficacy of Gamma Knife surgery for recurrent TN are influenced by prior MVD. METHODS: Between July 1992 and November 2010, 54 of 737 patients (45 of 497 with >1 year of follow-up) had a history of MVD (approximately half also with previous ablative procedure) and were operated on with Gamma Knife surgery for TN in the Timone University Hospital. A single 4-mm isocenter was positioned in the cisternal portion of the trigeminal nerve at a median distance of 7.6 mm (range, 3.9-11.9 mm) anterior to the emergence of the nerve. A median maximum dose of 85 Gy (range, 70-90 Gy) was delivered. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 39.5 months (range, 14.1-144.6 months). Thirty-five patients (77.8%) were initially pain free in a median time of 14 days (range, 0-180 days), much lower compared with our global population of classic TN (P = .01). Their actuarial probabilities of remaining pain-free without medication at 3, 5, 7, and 10 years were 66.5%, 59.1%, 59.1%, and 44.3%. The hypoesthesia actuarial rate at 1 year was 9.1% and remained stable until 12 years (median, 8 months). CONCLUSION: Patients with previous MVD showed a significantly lower probability of initial pain cessation compared with our global population with classic TN (P = .01). The toxicity was low (only 9.1% hypoesthesia); furthermore, no patient reported bothersome hypoesthesia. However, the probability of maintaining pain relief without medication was 44.3% at 10 years, similar to our global series of classic TN (P = .85). ABBREVIATIONS: BNI, Barrow Neurological InstituteCI, confidence intervalCTN, classic trigeminal neuralgiaGKS, Gamma Knife surgeryHR, hazard ratioMVD, microvascular decompressionTN, trigeminal neuralgia.

Critères de diagnostic de la fibromyalgie [Fibromyalgia diagnostic criteria].

Fibromyalgia is nowadays an object of controversy. It is the most significant painful and chronic pathology, with a prevalence of 2 to 4% in the general population and a ratio of 3.5% of women for 0.5% of men. Since 1990, fibromyalgia has been defined according to the criteria of the American College of Rheumatology (ACR). The use of these criteria in practice has proved to be controversial and a wide range of studies has shown that an important percentage of patients with fibromyalgia are diagnosed without the criteria of the ACR. This article describes an alternative method for the diagnosis of fibromyalgia.

Acute intussusception: a classic clinical picture?

57 patients with acute intussusception were admitted to the Children's Hospital Zurich between 1972 and 1979. All were treated surgically. One died, 7 needed a bowel resection, 9 intussusceptions were difficult and 32 easy to reduce. The retrospectively reviewed data show that the classic symptomatology, beginning suddenly in a healthy male (60%) under 3 years of age (91%) with attacks of colicky pain (81%), vomiting (93%), a palpable abdominal mass (72%) and rectal bleeding (72%), appears during the course of illness or may not be present at all. This leads to misdiagnosis, wrong treatment and worsening of the pathology. Blood per rectum, the most typical symptom, was present in the first hours of illness in only 5%, vomiting in 44% and colicky pain in 33% of the patients. A high degree of awareness is therefore necessary to diagnose intussusception during the first hours of illness, and particular stress must be laid on the accuracy of the diagnosis because reducibility and resection rate depend directly on the duration of the symptoms.

Role of hepatitis C virus genotype 3 in liver fibrosis progression: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The progression of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C has long been considered to be independent from viral genotypes. However, recent studies suggest an association between Hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 3 and accelerated liver disease progression. We completed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies evaluating the association between HCV genotypes and fibrosis progression. PubMed, Embase and ISI Web of Knowledge databases were searched for cohort, cross-sectional and case-control studies on treatment-naïve HCV-infected adults in which liver fibrosis progression rate (FPR) was assessed by the ratio of fibrosis stage in one single biopsy to the duration of infection (single-biopsy studies) or from the change in fibrosis stage between two biopsies (paired biopsies studies). A random effect model was used to derive FPR among different HCV genotypes. Eight single-biopsy studies (3182 patients, mean/median duration of infection ranging from 9 to 21 years) and eight paired biopsies studies (mean interval between biopsies 2-12 years) met the selection criteria. The odds ratio for the association of genotype 3 with accelerated fibrosis progression was 1.52 (95% CI 1.12-2.07, P = 0.007) in single-biopsy studies and 1.37 (95% CI 0.87-2.17, P = 0.17) in paired biopsy studies. In conclusion, viral genotype 3 was associated with faster fibrosis progression in single-biopsy studies. This observation may have important consequences on the clinical management of genotype 3-infected patients. The association was not significant in paired biopsies studies, although the latter may be limited by important indication bias, short observation time and small sample size.

Influence of compliance to respiratory weaning consensus conference criteria on respiratory outcome within 48h after planned extubation

INTRODUCTION. A two-step assessment (readiness to wean (RW) followed by spontaneousbreathing trial (SBT)) of predefined criteria is recommended before planned extubation(PE)1.OBJECTIVES. We aimed to evaluate if compliance to all guideline criteria was associatedwith better respiratory outcome within 48 h after PE.METHODS. The data (extracted from our clinical information system) of 458 consecutivepatients who underwent PE after C48 h of invasive ventilation in our medico-surgical ICUwere analyzed. We evaluated compliance with guidelines [1] regarding respiratory rate, tidalvolume, PaO2, FiO2, PEEP, PaCO2, pH, heart rate, systolic arterial pressure and arrhythmiaduringRWand SBT assessment (RW and SBT within 2 h). A patient was classified as RW+ ifallRWcriteria were fulfilled andRW-if at least 1 criterion was violated. The same approachwas used to define SBT+ and SBT- patients. During the 48 h following PE, we assessed theoccurrence of post-PE respiratory failure (PRF) (defined as the presence of at least 1 consensuscriterion of respiratory failure [1]), reintubation (after NIV failure or because of immediateintubation criteria) and cumulative duration of post-PE ventilation (PPEV = Post-PE invasive+ non-invasive ventilation). ICU mortality was recorded. Comparisons for variousoutcomes were performed by Chi-square and t tests.RESULTS. All consensus criteria were fulfilled in 77.3% of the patients during RW and in68.1% of the patients during SBT.[Compliance to weaning criteria and outcome]N = 458 PRF (%) Reintubation (%) PPEV (min) ICU mortality (%)All patients 53.5 10.0 542 ± 664 6.1RW+ 50.0 9.3 490 ± 626 5.4RW- 65.4* 12.5 718 ± 757** 8.7SBT+ 52.6 8.0 498 ± 594 6.7SBT- 55.5 14.4*** 637 ± 788**** 4.8Occurrence of PRF only was not associated with increased ICU mortality: 4.2 versus 7.8%,p = 0.11. By contrast, ICU mortality was significantly increased in patients requiring reintubation:21.7 versus 4.4%. p\0.001; * p = 0.006 RW+ versus RW-; ** p = 0.003RW+ versus RW-; *** p = 0.035 SBT+ versus SBT-; **** p = 0.030 SBT+ versusSBTCONCLUSIONS.In our ICU, compliance to all criteria of the two-step published approach ofrespiratory weaning was not optimal but reintubation rate was comparable to published data.Compliance with consensus conference guidelines was associated with lower reintubation rateand shorter PPEV but not with ICU mortality. As mortality was increased by reintubation,more sensitive and specific criteria to predict the risk of reintubation are probably needed.REFERENCE. Boles JM, et al. Eur Respir J 2007;29:1033-56.

Clinical benefit and quality of life in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer receiving gemcitabine plus capecitabine versus gemcitabine alone: a randomized multicenter phase III clinical trial--SAKK 44/00-CECOG/PAN.1.3.001.

PURPOSE: To compare clinical benefit response (CBR) and quality of life (QOL) in patients receiving gemcitabine (Gem) plus capecitabine (Cap) versus single-agent Gem for advanced/metastatic pancreatic cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients were randomly assigned to receive GemCap (oral Cap 650 mg/m(2) twice daily on days 1 through 14 plus Gem 1,000 mg/m(2) in a 30-minute infusion on days 1 and 8 every 3 weeks) or Gem (1,000 mg/m(2) in a 30-minute infusion weekly for 7 weeks, followed by a 1-week break, and then weekly for 3 weeks every 4 weeks) for 24 weeks or until progression. CBR criteria and QOL indicators were assessed over this period. CBR was defined as improvement from baseline for >or= 4 consecutive weeks in pain (pain intensity or analgesic consumption) and Karnofsky performance status, stability in one but improvement in the other, or stability in pain and performance status but improvement in weight. RESULTS: Of 319 patients, 19% treated with GemCap and 20% treated with Gem experienced a CBR, with a median duration of 9.5 and 6.5 weeks, respectively (P < .02); 54% of patients treated with GemCap and 60% treated with Gem had no CBR (remaining patients were not assessable). There was no treatment difference in QOL (n = 311). QOL indicators were improving under chemotherapy (P < .05). These changes differed by the time to failure, with a worsening 1 to 2 months before treatment failure (all P < .05). CONCLUSION: There is no indication of a difference in CBR or QOL between GemCap and Gem. Regardless of their initial condition, some patients experience an improvement in QOL on chemotherapy, followed by a worsening before treatment failure.

Implementation of raltegravir in routine clinical practice: selection criteria for choosing this drug, virologic response rates, and characteristics of failures.

BACKGROUND: Raltegravir (RAL) achieved remarkable virologic suppression rates in randomized-clinical trials, but today efficacy data and factors for treatment failures in a routine clinical care setting are limited. METHODS: First, factors associated with a switch to RAL were identified with a logistic regression including patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with a history of 3 class failure (n = 423). Second, predictors for virologic outcome were identified in an intent-to-treat analysis including all patients who received RAL. Last observation carried forward imputation was used to determine week 24 response rate (HIV-1 RNA >or= 50 copies/mL). RESULTS: The predominant factor associated with a switch to RAL in patients with suppressed baseline RNA was a regimen containing enfuvirtide [odds ratio 41.9 (95% confidence interval: 11.6-151.6)]. Efficacy analysis showed an overall response rate of 80.9% (152/188), whereas 71.8% (84/117) and 95.8% (68/71) showed viral suppression when stratified for detectable and undetectable RNA at baseline, respectively. Overall CD4 cell counts increased significantly by 42 cells/microL (P < 0.001). Characteristics of failures were a genotypic sensitivity score of the background regimen <or=1, very low RAL plasma concentrations, poor adherence, and high viral load at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Virologic suppression rates in our routine clinical care setting were promising and comparable with data from previously published randomized-controlled trials.

Analysis of Existing Work-Zone Devices with MASH Safety Performance Criteria, TPF-5(018), 2009

Crashworthy, work-zone, portable sign support systems accepted under NCHRP Report No. 350 were analyzed to predict their safety peformance according to the TL-3 MASH evaluation criteria. An analysis was conducted to determine which hardware parameters of sign support systems would likely contribute to the safety performance with MASH. The acuracy of the method was evaluated through full-scale crash testing. Four full-scale crash tests were conducted with a pickup truck. Two tall-mounted, sign support systems with aluminum sign panels failed the MASH criteria due to windshield penetration. One low-mounted system with a vinyl, roll-up sign panel failed the MASH criteria due to windshield and floorboard penetration. Another low-mounted system with an aluminum sign panel successfully met the MASH criteria. Four full-scale crash tests were conducted with a small passenger car. The low-mounted tripod system with an aluminum sign panel failed the MASH criteria due to windshield penetration. One low-mounted system with aluminum sign panel failed the MASH criteria due to excessive windshield deformation, and another similar system passed the MASH criteria. The low-mounted system with a vinyl, roll-up sign panel successfully met the MASH criteria. Hardware parameters of work-zone sign support systems that were determined to be important for failure with MASH include sign panel material, the height to the top of the mast, the presence of flags, sign-locking mechanism, base layout and system orientation. Flowcharts were provided to assist manufacturers when designing new sign support systems.

First explicit criteria to decide on the appropriateness of therapy of ulcerative colitis: the European EPATUC panel

Background: Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a chronic disease with a wide variety of treatment options many of which are not evidence based. Supplementing available guidelines, which are often broadly defined, consensus-based and generally not tailored to specifically reflect the individual patient situation, we developed explicit appropriateness criteria to assist, and improve treatment decisions. Methods: We used the RAND appropriateness method which does not force consensus. An extensive literature review was compiled based on and supplementing, where necessary, the ECCO UC 2011 guidelines. EPATUC (endorsed by ECCO) was formed by 7 gastroenterologists, 2 surgeons and 2 general practitioners from throughout Europe. Clinical scenarios reflecting practice were rated on a 9-point scale from 1 (extremely inappropriate) to 9 (extremely appropriate), based on the expert's experience and the available literature. After extensive discussion, all scenarios were re-rated at a two-day panel meeting. Median and disagreement (D) were used to categorize ratings into 3 categories: appropriate (A), uncertain (U) and inappropriate (I). Results: 718 clinical scenarios were rated, structured in 13 main clinical presentations: not refractory (n = 64) or refractory (n = 33) proctitis, mild to moderate left-sided (n = 72) or extensive (n = 48) colitis, severe colitis (n = 36), steroid- dependant colitis (n = 36), steroid-refractory colitis (n = 55), acute pouchitis (n = 96), maintenance of remission (n = 248), colorectal cancer prevention (n = 9) and fulminant colitis (n = 9). Overall, 100 indications were judged appropriate (14%), 129 uncertain (18%) and 489 inappropriate (68%). Disagreement between experts was very low (6%). Conclusions: For the very first time, explicit appropriateness criteria for therapy of UC were developed that allow both specific and rapid therapeutic decision making and prospective assessment of treatment appropriateness. Comparison of these detailed scenarios with patient profiles encountered in the Swiss IBD cohort study indicates good concordance. EPATUC criteria will be freely accessible on the internet (epatuc.ch)

The pulmonary embolism rule-out criteria (PERC) rule does not safely exclude pulmonary embolism.

Background: The Pulmonary Embolism Rule-out Criteria (PERC) rule is a clinical diagnostic rule designed to exclude pulmonary embolism (PE) without further testing. We sought to externally validate the diagnostic performance of the PERC rule alone and combined with clinical probability assessment based on the revised Geneva score. Methods: The PERC rule was applied retrospectively to consecutive patients who presented with a clinical suspicion of PE to six emergency departments, and who were enrolled in a randomized trial of PE diagnosis. Patients who met all eight PERC criteria [PERC(-)] were considered to be at a very low risk for PE. We calculated the prevalence of PE among PERC(-) patients according to their clinical pretest probability of PE. We estimated the negative likelihood ratio of the PERC rule to predict PE. Results: Among 1675 patients, the prevalence of PE was 21.3%. Overall, 13.2% of patients were PERC(-). The prevalence of PE was 5.4% [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.1-9.3%] among PERC(-) patients overall and 6.4% (95% CI: 3.7-10.8%) among those PERC(-) patients with a low clinical pretest probability of PE. The PERC rule had a negative likelihood ratio of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.67-0.73) for predicting PE overall, and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.38-1.06) in low-risk patients. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the PERC rule alone or even when combined with the revised Geneva score cannot safely identify very low risk patients in whom PE can be ruled out without additional testing, at least in populations with a relatively high prevalence of PE.

Standardizing the diagnosis of inhalation injury using a descriptive score based on mucosal injury criteria.

INTRODUCTION: Inhalation injury is an important determinant of outcome in patients with major burns. However the diagnostic criteria remain imprecise, preventing objective comparisons of published data. The aims were to evaluate the utility of an inhalation score based on mucosal injury, while assessing separately the oro-pharyngeal sphere (ENT) and tracheobronchial tree (TB) in patients admitted to the ICU with a suspicion of inhalation injury. METHODS: Prospective observational study in 100 patients admitted with suspicion of inhalation injury among 168 consecutive burn admissions to the ICU of a university hospital. Inclusion criteria, endoscopic airway assessment during the first hours. ENT/TB lesion grading was 1: oedema, hyperemia, hypersecretion, 2: bullous mucosal detachment, erosion, exudates, 3: profound ulcers, necrosis. RESULTS: Of the 100 patients (age 42±17 years, burns 23±19%BSA), 79 presented an ENT inhalation injury ≥ENT1 (soot present in 24%): 36 had a tracheobronchial extension, 33 having a grade ≥TB1. Burned vibrissae: 10 patients "without" suffered ENT injury, while 6 patients "with" had no further lesions. Length of mechanical ventilation was strongly associated with the first 24 hrs' fluid resuscitation volume (p<0.0001) and the presence of inhalation injury (p=0.03), while the ICU length of stay was correlated with the %BSA. Soot was associated with prolonged mechanical ventilation (p=0.0115). There was no extubation failure. CONCLUSIONS: The developed inhalation score was simple to use, providing a unified language, and drawing attention to upper airway involvement. Burned vibrissae and suspected history proved to be insufficient diagnostic criteria. Further studies are required to validate the score in a larger population.

Patterns of pain-free response in 497 cases of classic trigeminal neuralgia treated with Gamma Knife surgery and followed up for least 1 year.

Object The goal of this study was to establish whether clear patterns of initial pain freedom could be identified when treating patients with classic trigeminal neuralgia (TN) by using Gamma Knife surgery (GKS). The authors compared hypesthesia and pain recurrence rates to see if statistically significant differences could be found. Methods Between July 1992 and November 2010, 737 patients presenting with TN underwent GKS and prospective evaluation at Timone University Hospital in Marseille, France. In this study the authors analyzed the cases of 497 of these patients, who participated in follow-up longer than 1 year, did not have megadolichobasilar artery- or multiple sclerosis-related TN, and underwent GKS only once; in other words, the focus was on cases of classic TN with a single radiosurgical treatment. Radiosurgery was performed with a Leksell Gamma Knife (model B, C, or Perfexion) using both MR and CT imaging targeting. A single 4-mm isocenter was positioned in the cisternal portion of the trigeminal nerve at a median distance of 7.8 mm (range 4.5-14 mm) anterior to the emergence of the nerve. A median maximum dose of 85 Gy (range 70-90 Gy) was delivered. Using empirical methods and assisted by a chart with clear cut-off periods of pain free distribution, the authors were able to divide patients who experienced freedom from pain into 3 separate groups: patients who became pain free within the first 48 hours post-GKS; those who became pain free between 48 hours and 30 days post-GKS; and those who became pain free more than 30 days after GKS. Results The median age in the 497 patients was 68.3 years (range 28.1-93.2 years). The median follow-up period was 43.75 months (range 12-174.41 months). Four hundred fifty-four patients (91.34%) were initially pain free within a median time of 10 days (range 1-459 days) after GKS. One hundred sixty-nine patients (37.2%) became pain free within the first 48 hours (Group PF(≤ 48 hours)), 194 patients (42.8%) between posttreatment Day 3 and Day 30 (Group PF((>48 hours, ≤ 30 days))), and 91 patients (20%) after 30 days post-GKS (Group PF(>30 days)). Differences in postoperative hypesthesia were found: in Group PF(≤ 48 hours) 18 patients (13.7%) developed postoperative hypesthesia, compared with 30 patients (19%) in Group PF((>48 hours, ≤ 30 days)) and 22 patients (30.6%) in Group PF(>30 days) (p = 0.014). One hundred fifty-seven patients (34.4%) who initially became free from pain experienced a recurrence of pain with a median delay of 24 months (range 0.62-150.06 months). There were no statistically significant differences between the patient groups with respect to pain recurrence: 66 patients (39%) in Group PF(≤ 48 hours) experienced pain recurrence, compared with 71 patients (36.6%) in Group PF((>48 hours, ≤ 30 days)) and 27 patients (29.7%) in Group PF(>30 days) (p = 0.515). Conclusions A substantial number of patients (169 cases, 37.2%) became pain free within the first 48 hours. The rate of hypesthesia was higher in patients who became pain free more than 30 days after GKS, with a statistically significant difference between patient groups (p = 0.014).