A ship run aground Deepening problems in the Ukrainian economy. OSW Commentary Number 173, 16 June 2015

The drop in Ukraine’s GDP by nearly 18% in the first three months of 2015 (versus the corresponding period in 2014) has confirmed the decline of the country’s economy. Over the last 14 months, the Ukrainian currency was subject to an almost threefold devaluation against the US dollar, and in April 2015 the inflation rate was 61% (year-on-year), which exacerbated the impoverishment of the general public and weakened domestic demand. The main reason behind the crisis has been the destruction of heavy industry and infrastructure in the war-torn Donbas region, over which Kyiv no longer has control, as well as a sharp decline in foreign trade (by 24% in 2014 and by 34% in the first quarter of 2015), recorded primarily in trading volume with Ukraine’s major trade partner, i.e. Russia (a drop of 43%). The conflict has also had a negative impact on the production figures for the two key sectors of the Ukrainian economy: agriculture and metallurgy, which account for approximately 50% of Ukrainian exports. The government’s response to the crisis has primarily been a reduction in the costs of financing the Donbas and an increase in the financial burden placed on the citizens and companies of Ukraine. No radical reforms which would encompass the entire system, including anti-corruption reforms, have been carried out to stop the embezzlement of state funds and to facilitate business activity. The reasons for not initiating reforms have included the lack of will to launch them, Ukraine’s traditionally slow pace of bureaucratic action and growing dissonance among the parties making up the parliamentary coalition. The few positive changes, including marketisation of energy prices and sustaining budgetary discipline (in the first quarter of 2015, budgetary revenues grew by 25%, though partly as a result of currency devaluation), are being carried out under pressure from the International Monetary Fund, which is making the payment of further loan instalments to the tune of US$ 17.5 billion conditional upon reforms. Despite assistance granted by Western institutional donors and by individual states, the risk of Ukraine going bankrupt remains real. The issue of restructuring foreign debt worth US$ 15 billion has not been resolved, as foreign creditors who hold Ukrainian bonds have not consented to any partial cancellation of the debt. Whether Ukraine’s public finances can be stabilised will depend mainly on the situation in the east of the country and on the possible renewal of military action. It seems that the only way to rescue Ukraine’s public finances from deteriorating further is to continue to ‘freeze’ the conflict, to gradually implement wide-ranging reforms and to reach a consensus in negotiations with lenders.

Moving from Awareness to Knowing, Understanding, Speaking and Doing: Indigenous Women Academics in Higher Education. National Tertiary Education Women's Conference, 18-19 July 2009, South Melbourne, Victoria.

Bronwyn Fredericks was asked to outline some of the issues faced by Indigenous women academics.

Investigation of the effect of organics on the water uptake of marine aerosols

Water uptake refers to the ability of atmospheric particles to take up water vapour from the surrounding atmosphere. This is an important property that affects particle size and phase and therefore influences many characteristics of aerosols relevant to air quality and climate. However, the water uptake properties of many important atmospheric aerosol systems, including those related to the oceans, are still not fully understood. Therefore, the primary aim of this PhD research program was to investigate the water uptake properties of marine aerosols. In particular, the effect of organics on marine aerosol water uptake was investigated. Field campaigns were conducted at remote coastal sites on the east coast of Australia (Agnes Water; March-April 2007) and west coast of Ireland (Mace Head; June 2007), and laboratory measurements were performed on bubble-generated sea spray aerosols. A combined Volatility-Hygroscopicity-Tandem Differential Mobility Analyser (VH-TDMA) was employed in all experiments. This system probes the changes in the hygroscopic properties of nanoparticles as volatile organic components are progressively evaporated. It also allows particle composition to be inferred from combined volatility-hygroscopicity measurements. Frequent new particle formation and growth events were observed during the Agnes Water campaign. The VH-TDMA was used to investigate freshly nucleated particles (17-22.5 nm) and it was found that the condensation of sulphate and/or organic vapours was responsible for driving particle growth during the events. Aitken mode particles (~40 nm) were also measured with the VH-TDMA. In 3 out of 18 VH-TDMA scans evaporation of a volatile, organic component caused a very large increase in hygroscopicity that could only be explained by an increase in the absolute water uptake of the particle residuals, and not merely an increase in their relative hygroscopicity. This indicated the presence of organic components that were suppressing the hygroscopic growth of mixed particles on the timescale of humidification in the VH-TDMA (6.5 secs). It was suggested that the suppression of water uptake was caused by either a reduced rate of hygroscopic growth due to the presence of organic films, or organic-inorganic interactions in solution droplets that had a negative effect on hygroscopicity. Mixed organic-inorganic particles were rarely observed by the VH-TDMA during the summer campaign conducted at Mace Head. The majority of particles below 100 nm in clean, marine air appeared to be sulphates neutralised to varying degrees by ammonia. On one unique day, 26 June 2007, particularly large concentrations of sulphate aerosol were observed and identified as volcanic emissions from Iceland. The degree of neutralisation of the sulphate aerosol by ammonia was calculated by the VH-TDMA and found to compare well with the same quantity measured by an aerosol mass spectrometer. This was an important verification of the VH-TMDA‘s ability to identify ammoniated sulphate aerosols based on the simultaneous measurement of aerosol volatility and hygroscopicity. A series of measurements were also conducted on sea spray aerosols generated from Moreton Bay seawater samples in a laboratory-based bubble chamber. Accumulation mode sea spray particles (38-173 nm) were found to contain only a minor organic fraction (< 10%) that had little effect on particle hygroscopicity. These results are important because previous studies have observed that accumulation mode sea spray particles are predominantly organic (~80% organic mass fraction). The work presented here suggests that this is not always the case, and that there may be currently unknown factors that are controlling the transfer of organics to the aerosol phase during the bubble bursting process. Taken together, the results of this research program have significantly improved our understanding of organic-containing marine aerosols and the way they interact with water vapour in the atmosphere.

Identification of selection criteria for operational variations of the design-build system : a delphi study in China

The design-build (DB) system has been demonstrated as an effective delivery method and has gained popularity worldwide. However it is observed that a number of operational variations of DB system have emerged since the last decade to cater for different client’s requirements. After the client decides to procure his project through the DB system, he still has to choose an appropriate configuration to deliver their projects optimally. However, there is little research on the selection of DB operational variations. One of the main reasons for this is the lack of evaluation criteria for determining the appropriateness of each operational variation. To obtain such criteria, a three-round Delphi survey has been conducted with 20 construction experts in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Seven top selection criteria were identified. These are: (1) availability of competent design-builders; (2) client’s capabilities; (3) project complexity; (4) client’s control of project; (5) early commencement & short duration; (6) reduced responsibility or involvement; and (7) clearly defined end user’s requirements. These selection criteria were found to have a statistically significant agreement. These findings may furnish various stakeholders, DB clients in particular, with better insight to understand and compare the different operational variations of the DB system.

IL-18 inhibits growth of murine orthotopic prostate carcinomas via both adaptive and innate immune mechanisms

Interleukin(IL)-18 is a pleiotrophic cytokine with functions in immune modulation, angiogenesis and bone metabolism. In this study, the potential of IL-18 as an immunotherapy for prostate cancer (PCa) was examined using the murine model of prostate carcinoma, RM1 and a bone metastatic variant RM1(BM)/B4H7-luc. RM1 and RM1(BM)/B4H7-luc cells were stably transfected to express bioactive IL-18. These cells were implanted into syngeneic immunocompetent mice, with or without an IL-18-neutralising antibody (αIL-18, SK113AE4). IL-18 significantly inhibited the growth of both subcutaneous and orthotopic RM1 tumors and the IL-18 neutralizing antibody abrogated the tumor growth-inhibition. In vivo neutralization of interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) completely eliminated the anti-tumor effects of IL-18 confirming an essential role of IFN-γ as a down-stream mediator of the anti-tumor activity of IL-18. Tumors from mice in which IL-18 and/or IFN-γ was neutralized contained significantly fewer CD4+ and CD8+ T cells than those with functional IL-18. The essential role of adaptive immunity was demonstrated as tumors grew more rapidly in RAG1−/− mice or in mice depleted of CD4+ and/or CD8+ cells than in normal mice. The tumors in RAG1−/− mice were also significantly smaller when IL-18 was present, indicating that innate immune mechanisms are involved. IL-18 also induced an increase in tumor infiltration of macrophages and neutrophils but not NK cells. In other experiments, direct injection of recombinant IL-18 into established tumors also inhibited tumor growth, which was associated with an increase in intratumoral macrophages, but not T cells. These results suggest that local IL-18 in the tumor environment can significantly potentiate anti-tumor immunity in the prostate and clearly demonstrate that this effect is mediated by innate and adaptive immune mechanisms.

Infertility resolved with or without fertility treatment in Australian women aged 31-36 years: A prospective, population-based study [abstract]

Birth outcomes during a three year period were compared for women with a history of infertility who did or did not use fertility treatment with hormones and/or in vitro fertilisation. Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health born in 1973-78 were randomly selected from the universal public health insurance database and completed up to five mailed surveys (1996-2009). Participants reported on their infertility and use of treatment at age 28-33 years (survey 4 (S4) in 2006) and 31-36 years (survey 5 (S5) in 2009). The odds of resolved infertility at S5 were estimated using logistic regression with adjustment for age, area of residence, private health insurance and male infertility. Among 7280 women who responded to both S4 and S5, 18.6% (n=1378) reported infertility. More than half (n=804, 56.8%) of these women did not use treatment and 43.9% (n=347) gave birth between S4 and S5. Compared to infertile women who did not use treatment, women who used treatment were more likely at S5 to have recently given birth (odds ratio (OR) = 1.59, 95% CI 1.26-2.00) or be pregnant (OR = 1.77, 1.27-2.46). Further, women who used treatment were more likely to have twins (3.37, 1.18-9.62), premature births (1.52, 0.95-2.43), or low birthweight babies (1.83, 0.70-2.53) compared to women who gave birth without using treatment. Many women aged up to 36 years with a history of infertility can conceive naturally over a three year period without the use of treatment.Women who have never had a prior birth may need to use treatment to resolve their infertility but they are at higher risk of poorer perinatal outcomes, such as premature or low birthweight babies.

Inflammatory cytokine responses to progressive resistance training and supplementation with fortified milk in men aged 50+ years : an 18-month randomized controlled trial

We examined the effects of progressive resistance training (PRT) and supplementation with calcium-vitamin D(3) fortified milk on markers of systemic inflammation, and the relationship between inflammation and changes in muscle mass, size and strength. Healthy men aged 50-79 years (n = 180) participated in this 18-month randomized controlled trial that comprised a factorial 2 x 2 design. Participants were randomized to (1) PRT + fortified milk supplement, (2) PRT, (3) fortified milk supplement, or (4) a control group. Participants assigned to PRT trained 3 days per week, while those in the supplement groups consumed 400 ml day(-1) of milk containing 1,000 mg calcium plus 800 IU vitamin D(3). We collected venous blood samples at baseline, 12 and 18 months to measure the serum concentrations of IL-6, TNF-alpha and hs-CRP. There were no exercise x supplement interactions, but serum IL-6 was 29% lower (95% CI, -62, 0) in the PRT group compared with the control group after 12 months. Conversely, IL-6 was 31% higher (95% CI, -2, 65) in the supplement group compared with the non-supplemented groups after 12 and 18 months. These between-group differences did not persist after adjusting for changes in fat mass. In the PRT group, mid-tibia muscle cross-sectional area increased less in men with higher pre-training inflammation compared with those men with lower inflammation (net difference similar to 2.5%, p < 0.05). In conclusion, serum IL-6 concentration decreased following PRT, whereas it increased after supplementation with fortified milk concomitant with changes in fat mass. Furthermore, low-grade inflammation at baseline restricted muscle hypertrophy following PRT.

More men than women make mucosal IgA antibodies to human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV-16) and HPV-18: A study of oral HPV and oral HPV antibodies in a normal healthy population

Background: We have previously shown the high prevalence of oral anti-human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV-16) antibodies in women with HPV-associated cervical neoplasia. It was postulated that the HPV antibodies were initiated after HPV antigenic stimulation at the cervix via the common mucosal immune system. The present study aimed to further evaluate the effectiveness of oral fluid testing for detecting the mucosal humoral response to HPV infection and to advance our limited understanding of the immune response to HPV. Methods: The prevalence of oral HPV infection and oral antibodies to HPV types 16, 18 and 11 was determined in a normal, healthy population of children, adolescents and adults, both male and female, attending a dental clinic. HPV types in buccal cells were determined by DNA sequencing. Oral fluid was collected from the gingival crevice of the mouth by the OraSure method. HPV-16, HPV-18 and HPV-11 antibodies in oral fluid were detected by virus-like particle-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. As a reference group 44 women with cervical neoplasia were included in the study. Results: Oral HPV infection was h ighest in children (9/114, 7.9%), followed by adolescents (4/78, 5.1%), and lowest in normal adults (4/116, 3.5%). The predominant HPV type found was HPV-13 (7/22, 31.8%) followed by HPV-32 (5/22, 22.7%). The prevalence of oral antibodies to HPV-16, HPV-18 and HPV-11 was low in children and increased substantially in adolescents and normal adults. Oral HPV-16 IgA was significantly more prevalent in women with cervical neoplasia (30/44, 68.2%) than the women from the dental clinic (18/69, 26.1% P = 0.0001). Significantly more adult men than women displayed oral HPV-16 IgA (30/47 compared with 18/69, OR 5.0, 95% CI 2.09-12.1, P < 0.001) and HPV-18 IgA (17/47 compared with 13/69, OR 2.4, 95% CI 0.97-6.2, P = 0.04). Conclusion: The increased prevalence of oral HPV antibodies in adolescent individuals compared with children was attributed to the onset of sexual activity. The increased prevalence of oral anti-HPV IgA in men compared with women was noteworthy considering reportedly fewer men than women make serum antibodies, and warrants further investigation. © 2006 Marais et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Contraceptive use and unintended pregnancy among 18-23 year old women in Australia : the first findings of the CUPID study

Objectives: Little is known about young adult women's experience of unintended pregnancy in Australia, nor the extent to which ineffective contraceptive use or contraceptive failure may lead to young women becoming pregnant. The CUPID study is the first in Australia to examine young adult Australian women's patterns of contraceptive use, their experience of unintended pregnancy, and their use (or not) of contraception at the time of conception. Methods: Australian women aged 18-23 years completed an online survey about contraceptive use and experience of unintended pregnancy. They were recruited through a range of methods including advertising on Facebook, and snowball sampling. Sample representativeness was established through comparison with Census data. Results: Of the 511 respondents, 403 women reported that they had ever had sex and were not currently pregnant. Among these women, the pill was the most common method of contraception used on the most recent occasion, used alone (30%) or with condoms (21%). Condoms (alone or with another method other than the pill) were used by a further 17%, and long-acting contraceptive methods by a further 16%. Other methods such as natural methods or partner vasectomy were used by 16%. The withdrawal method was surprisingly common and was mentioned by 15% of the women overall, usually in combination with another method. There were 63 women who had been pregnant, including 5 who were pregnant at the time of the survey, and of these 55 (87%) had become pregnant by accident. Of these 55 women, 69% reported using a range of contraception methods when they became pregnant by accident: Pill only (29%) and in combination with condoms (3%) and withdrawal (5%); condoms only (18%) and in combination with withdrawal (16%); emergency contraceptive pill only (3%) and in combination with withdrawal (3%) and withdrawal only (24%). Conclusions: This study highlighted the use of less effective methods of contraception among young Australian women. The withdrawal method was commonly used, often in combination with other methods, particularly before an unintended pregnancy. Among the women who had been pregnant, most reported that their pregnancy had been unintended. A third of the young women who had experienced an unintended pregnancy were using the withdrawal method. Further research is needed about the place of the withdrawal method in the contraceptive practices of young women.