Agricultural commodities pricing model applied to the Brazilian sugar market

This article suggests a pricing model for commodities used to produce biofuel. The model is based on the concept that the deterministic component of the Wiener process is not constant and depends on time and exogenous variables. The model, which incorporates theory of storage, the convenience yield and the seasonality of harvests, was applied in the Brazilian sugar market. After predictions were made with the Kalman filter, the model produced results that were statistically more accurate than those returned by the two-factor model available in the literature.

Psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the mindful attention awareness scale (MAAS) in patients with fibromyalgia

Background Mindful-based interventions improve functioning and quality of life in fibromyalgia (FM) patients. The aim of the study is to perform a psychometric analysis of the Spanish version of the Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) in a sample of patients diagnosed with FM. Methods The following measures were administered to 251 Spanish patients with FM: the Spanish version of MAAS, the Chronic Pain Acceptance Questionnaire, the Pain Catastrophising Scale, the Injustice Experience Questionnaire, the Psychological Inflexibility in Pain Scale, the Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire and the Euroqol. Factorial structure was analysed using Confirmatory Factor Analyses (CFA). Cronbach's α coefficient was calculated to examine internal consistency, and the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was calculated to assess the test-retest reliability of the measures. Pearson’s correlation tests were run to evaluate univariate relationships between scores on the MAAS and criterion variables. Results The MAAS scores in our sample were low (M = 56.7; SD = 17.5). CFA confirmed a two-factor structure, with the following fit indices [sbX2 = 172.34 (p < 0.001), CFI = 0.95, GFI = 0.90, SRMR = 0.05, RMSEA = 0.06. MAAS was found to have high internal consistency (Cronbach’s α = 0.90) and adequate test-retest reliability at a 1–2 week interval (ICC = 0.90). It showed significant and expected correlations with the criterion measures with the exception of the Euroqol (Pearson = 0.15). Conclusion Psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the MAAS in patients with FM are adequate. The dimensionality of the MAAS found in this sample and directions for future research are discussed.

The temporal pattern of customer satisfaction: a construal-level approach

Customer satisfaction has been traditionally studied and measured regardless of the time elapsed since the purchase. Some studies have recently reopened the debate about the temporal pattern of satisfaction. This research aims to explain why “how you evaluate a service depends on when you evaluate it” on the basis of the theoretical framework proposed by Construal-Level Theory (CLT). Although an empirical investigation is still lacking, the literature does not deny that CLT can be applied also with regard to past events. Moreover, some studies support the idea that satisfaction is a good predictor of future intentions, while others do not. On the basis of CLT, we argue that these inconsistent results are due to the different construal levels of the information pertaining to retrospective and prospective evaluations. Building on the Two-Factor Theory, we explain the persistence of certain attributes’ representations over time according to their relationship with overall performance. We present and discuss three experiments and one field study that were conducted a) to test the extensibility of CLT to past events, b) to disentangle memory and construal effects, c) to study the effect of different temporal perspective on overall satisfaction judgements, and d) to investigate the temporal shift of the determinants of customer satisfaction as a function of temporal distance.

Krankheitserleben und Behandlungsvoraussetzungen als Prädiktoren für den Erfolg stationärer psychosomatischer Therapie

Es werden Krankheitserleben und Behandlungsvoraussetzungen als Prädiktoren für den Erfolg stationärer Psychosomatischer Therapie anhand der vorliegenden Studie, die 125 Patienten einschliesst, überprüft. Dies geschieht mit Hilfe der Achse I der Operationalisierten Psychodynamischen Diagnostik (OPD).Die OPD wurde von der Arbeitsgruppe-OPD 1996 in Ergänzung zu der ICD-10 (International Classification of Diseases) herausgegeben und bietet für die Psyche betreffende Erkrankungen zusätzlich zu den rein deskriptiven Klassifikationen der ICD eine Klassifikationsmöglichkeit auf der Basis der Psychoanalyse und Psychodynamik an. Die erste der insgesamt fünf Achsen der OPD bezieht sich dabei auf das Krankheitserleben und die Behandlungsvoraussetzungen des Patienten.Der Erfolg der Therapie wird bis 1 Jahr nach dem Ende der Therapie zu drei verschiedenen Zeitpunkten durch Befragungen der Patienten erfasst. Die Ergebnisse zeigen für einzelne der Items der Achse I der OPD deutliche Zusammenhänge mit dem später eingetretenen Erfolg der Therapie. Dies gilt insbesondere für den Schweregrad des psychischen Befundes, den Leidensdruck, die Beeinträchtigung des Selbsterlebens, die Motivation zur Psychotherapie und die psychische Symptomdarbietung (Items 2, 3, 4, 11 und 15).Des weiteren werden zwei Faktorenlösungen erstellt, welche die 19 einzelnen Items der Achse I der OPD zu Faktoren zusammenfassen. Im Vergleich mit den bereits vorhandenen Faktorenlösungen zeigen sich aufgrund der Uneinheitlichkeit Probleme für eine mögliche Verwendung in der Praxis.

Prozessevaluation einer kognitiv-verhaltenstherapeutischen Gruppentherapie bei Diabetes und Depression : Entwicklung und Validierung der Patienten- und Therapeuten- Gruppentherapiestundenbögen (GTS-P, GTS-T, GTS-TP) zur Vorhersage des Therapieerfolgs

Untersucht werden Prozess-Ergebnis-Zusammenhänge einer kognitiv-verhaltenstherapeutischen Gruppentherapie für Diabetes und Depression im Rahmen der DAD-Studie. rnAufgrund des Mangels an geeigneten Erhebungsinstrumenten der validen, ökonomischen und komplementären Sitzungsbewertung von Gruppenpatienten und -therapeuten wurden angelehnt an einen Patienten- (GTS-P) zwei Therapeutenstundenbögen entwickelt: der GTS-T zur Bewertung der Gesamtgruppe und der GTS-TP zur Bewertung einzelner Patienten. Die GTS-Bögen zeigen bei der Überprüfung der Testgüte insgesamt gute Itemparameter und Reliabilitäten. Das in den exploratorischen Faktorenanaylsen des GTS-P identifizierte zweifaktorielle Modell (1. wahrgenommene Zuversicht hinsichtlich der Gruppentherapie, 2. wahrgenommene persönliche Beteiligung) kann in den konfirmatorischen Faktorenanalysen bestätigt werden. Dazu wurden GTS-P-Daten aus einer Untersuchung mit Patienten mit somatoformen Störungen (Schulte, 2001) einbezogen. Den Ergebnissen der Item- und Faktorenanalysen folgend, wurden zwei Items des GTS-P und zwei weitere Items des GTS-T aus den Instrumenten ausgeschlossen. Für den GTS-T zeigt sich eine einfaktorielle, für den GTS-TP eine zum GTS-P parallele zweifaktorielle Struktur. rnIn den Mehrebenenanalysen zur Vorhersage des Therapieergebnisses (Post-Depressionssymptomatik) zeigt sich die Skala Zuversicht des GTS-P zu Therapiebeginn (1.-4. Sitzung) kontrolliert an der Skala Beteiligung und der Prä-Symptomatik, als valider Prädiktor. Das Item 5 „Anregungen“ (Skala Zuversicht) und Item 2 „Aktive Mitwirkung“ (Skala Beteiligung) sind am stärksten an diesem Effekt beteiligt, da diese Itemkombination das Therapieergebnis ebenfalls valide vorhersagen kann. Die Prognose ist schon durch die Werte der ersten Gruppentherapiesitzungen in der Remoralisierungsphase (Howard et al., 1993) möglich und verbessert sich nicht bei Berücksichtigung aller 10 Gruppensitzungen. Die Therapeutenbögen zeigen keine prädiktive Validität. Bedeutsame Zusammenhänge der Patienten- und Therapeutenbewertungen finden sich lediglich für den GTS-P und GTS-TP. Weitere Prädiktoren, wie der Diabetestyp, Diabeteskomplikationen und die Adhärenz, konnten nicht zur Verbesserung der Vorhersage beitragen. Für sekundär überprüfte Kriterien gelang die Prognose lediglich für ein weiteres Maß der Depressionssymptomatik und für eine Gesamtbewertung der Gruppentherapie durch die Patienten zu Therapieende. Bei der deskriptiven Betrachtung der Prozessqualität der DAD-Gruppentherapien zeigen sich positive, über den Verlauf der Gruppe zunehmende und nach Therapiephasen differenzierbare Bewertungsverläufe. rnDie Ergebnisse der Studie sprechen für die Relevanz von unspezifischen Wirkfaktoren für das Therapieergebnis von kognitiv-behavioralen Gruppentherapien. Die von den Gruppenpatienten wahrgenommene Zuversicht und Beteiligung als Zeichen der Ansprechbarkeit auf die Therapie sollte mit Hilfe von Stundenbögen, wie den GTS-Bögen, von Gruppentherapeuten zur Prozessoptimierung und Prävention von Therapieabbrüchen und Misserfolgen beachtet werden. rn

A Cross-Sectional Survey of Repetitive Behaviors and Restricted Interests in a Typically Developing Turkish Child Population

This study examined compulsive-like behaviors (CLBs) which are higher-order types of Repetitive Behaviors And Restricted Interests (RBRIs) in typically developing children in Turkey. Caregivers of 1,204 children between 8 and 72 months were interviewed with Childhood Routines Inventory (CRI) by trained interviewers in a cross-sectional survey. Factor analysis of the CRI revealed two factor structures comprising "just right behaviors" and "repetitive/sensory sensitivity behaviors". CLB frequency peaked at 2-4 years with declines after age four. In contrast to the previous CRI studies reporting no gender difference, CLBs were more common in males in 12-23 and 48-59 month age groups on both total CLB frequency and repetitive/sensory sensitivity behaviors. Also ages of onsets for CRI items were somewhat later than reported in other samples. Our findings supported the findings of the previous CRI studies while also revealing new perspectives in need of further investigation.

Prospective memory, executive functions and metacognitive control: An empirical approach to their structural interrelations in young elementary school children

Introduction Prospective memory (PM), the ability to remember to perform intended activities in the future (Kliegel & Jäger, 2007), is crucial to succeed in everyday life. PM seems to improve gradually over the childhood years (Zimmermann & Meier, 2006), but yet little is known about PM competences in young school children in general, and even less is known about factors influencing its development. Currently, a number of studies suggest that executive functions (EF) are potentially influencing processes (Ford, Driscoll, Shum & Macaulay, 2012; Mahy & Moses, 2011). Additionally, metacognitive processes (MC: monitoring and control) are assumed to be involved while optimizing one’s performance (Krebs & Roebers, 2010; 2012; Roebers, Schmid, & Roderer, 2009). Yet, the relations between PM, EF and MC remain relatively unspecified. We intend to empirically examine the structural relations between these constructs. Method A cross-sectional study including 119 2nd graders (mage = 95.03, sdage = 4.82) will be presented. Participants (n = 68 girls) completed three EF tasks (stroop, updating, shifting), a computerised event-based PM task and a MC spelling task. The latent variables PM, EF and MC that were represented by manifest variables deriving from the conducted tasks, were interrelated by structural equation modelling. Results Analyses revealed clear associations between the three cognitive constructs PM, EF and MC (rpm-EF = .45, rpm-MC = .23, ref-MC = .20). A three factor model, as opposed to one or two factor models, appeared to fit excellently to the data (chi2(17, 119) = 18.86, p = .34, remsea = .030, cfi = .990, tli = .978). Discussion The results indicate that already in young elementary school children, PM, EF and MC are empirically well distinguishable, but nevertheless substantially interrelated. PM and EF seem to share a substantial amount of variance while for MC, more unique processes may be assumed.

Decline in growth of foraminifer Marginopora rossi under eutrophication and ocean acidification scenarios

The combination of global and local stressors is leading to a decline in coral reef health globally. In the case of eutrophication, increased concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and phosphorus (DIP) are largely attributed to local land use changes. From the global perspective, increased atmospheric CO2 levels are not only contributing to global warming but also ocean acidification (OA). Both eutrophication and OA have serious implications for calcium carbonate production and dissolution among calcifying organisms. In particular, benthic foraminifera precipitate the most soluble form of mineral calcium carbonate (high-Mg calcite), potentially making them more sensitive to dissolution. In this study, a manipulative orthogonal two-factor experiment was conducted to test the effects of dissolved inorganic nutrients and OA on the growth, respiration and photophysiology of the large photosymbiont-bearing benthic foraminifer, Marginopora rossi. This study found the growth rate of M. rossi was inhibited by the interaction of eutrophication and acidification. The relationship between M. rossi and its photosymbionts became destabilized due to the photosymbiont's release from nutrient limitation in the nitrate-enriched treatment, as shown by an increase in zooxanthellae cells per host surface area. Foraminifers from the OA treatments had an increased amount of Chl a per cell, suggesting a greater potential to harvest light energy, however, there was no net benefit to the foraminifer growth. Overall, this study demonstrates that the impacts of OA and eutrophication are dose dependent and interactive. This research indicates an OA threshold at pH 7.6, alone or in combination with eutrophication, will lead to a decline in M. rossi calcification. The decline in foraminifera calcification associated with pollution and OA will have broad ecological implications across their ubiquitous range and suggests that without mitigation it could have serious implications for the future of coral reefs.

Trade policy in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model

The Import Substitution Process in Latin Amer ica was an attempt to enhance GDP growth and productivity by rising trade barriers upon capital-intensive products. Our main goal is to analyze how an increase in import tariff on a particular type of good affects the production choices and trade pattern of an economy. We develop an extension of the dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model – a combination of a static two goods, two-factor Heckscher-Ohlin model and a two-sector growth model – allowing for import tariff. We then calibrate the closed economy model to the US. The results show that the economy will produce less of both consumption and investment goods under autarky for low and high levels of capital stock per worker. We also find that total GDP may be lower under free trade in comparison to autarky.

On the dimensionality of the Attachment Style Questionnaire in Italian clinical and nonclinical participants

This study examined the utility of the Attachment Style Questionnaire (ASQ) in an Italian sample of 487 consecutively admitted psychiatric participants and an independent sample of 605 nonclinical participants. Minimum average partial analysis of data from the psychiatric sample supported the hypothesized five-factor structure of the items; furthermore, multiple-group component analysis showed that this five-factor structure was not an artifact of differences in item distributions. The five-factor structure of the ASQ was largely replicated in the nonclinical sample. Furthermore, in both psychiatric and nonclinical samples, a two-factor higher order structure of the ASQ scales was observed. The higher order factors of Avoidance and Anxious Attachment showed meaningful relations with scales assessing parental bonding, but were not redundant with these scales. Multivariate normal mixture analysis supported the hypothesis that adult attachment patterns, as measured by the ASQ, are best considered as dimensional constructs.

Structural ambiguity of the Chinese version of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale in patients with coronary heart disease

Background The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) is a widely used screening tool designed as a case detector for clinically relevant anxiety and depression. Recent studies of the HADS in coronary heart disease (CHD) patients in European countries suggest it comprises three, rather than two, underlying sub-scale dimensions. The factor structure of the Chinese version of the HADS was evaluated in patients with CHD in mainland China. Methods Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted on self-report HADS forms from 154 Chinese CHD patients. Results Little difference was observed in model fit between best performing three-factor and two-factor models. Conclusion The current observations are inconsistent with recent studies highlighting a dominant underlying tri-dimensional structure to the HADS in CHD patients. The Chinese version of the HADS may perform differently to European language versions of the instrument in patients with CHD.

Volatility transmission between stock and bond markets

A two-factor no-arbitrage model is used to provide a theoretical link between stock and bond market volatility. While this model suggests that short-term interest rate volatility may, at least in part, drive both stock and bond market volatility, the empirical evidence suggests that past bond market volatility affects both markets and feeds back into short-term yield volatility. The empirical modelling goes on to examine the (time-varying) correlation structure between volatility in the stock and bond markets and finds that the sign of this correlation has reversed over the last 20 years. This has important implications far portfolio selection in financial markets. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Competition between three lichen species using a factorial experimental design

Competition between three foliose lichens common on slate rock in south Gwynedd, Wales was studied in the field using a factorial experimental design. The lichens were grown as fragments glued to pieces of slate in two- and three-species mixtures. In the two-species mixtures, Parmelia conspersa (Ehrh. Ex Ach.) Ach. outcompeted Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa (Fr. ex Duby) Laund. strongly and Physcia orbicularis (Neck.) Poetsch less strongly, while P. orbicularis outcompeted P. glabratula weakly. Significant two-factor interactions indicated that the results from the three-species mixture could not be predicted from the two-species mixtures. Parmelia glabratula and P. orbicularis grew better in the presence of two competitors than one. This result suggests that the three species may co-occur on well-lit rock surfaces at the site.

The effectiveness of an innovative intervention aimed at reducing binge drinking among young people:results from a pilot study

Aims: To assess the effectiveness of a digital-story intervention (short videos made by young people) seeking to reduce the prevalence of young people's binge drinking in Caerphilly. Method: A quasi-experimental design was adopted with three intervention sites and one control site providing the sample (mainly aged 1415 years). Three rounds of self-completion questionnaires, completed prior (T1), immediately after (T2) and 6 months after the intervention (T3). Findings: A total of 1031 questionnaires completed across the three time-points. Two-factor ANOVAs revealed a positive effect on knowledge for the intervention sample. The intervention group results showed stable attitudes towards drinking at the three time-points whilst the control group showed increasing positive attitudes towards drunkenness over the same time period. Intentions towards drunkenness were higher in the control group than the intervention group at T2 (ControlT1 Mean 3.37, T2 Mean 3.90; interventionT1 Mean 3.26, T2 Mean 3.29). Intervention participants got drunk on fewer occasions in the last week (mean occasions last week 1.57) compared to control participants (mean occasions last week 2.00), with the difference approaching statistical significance (F 1.90, p 0.07). Conclusions: Promoting negative attitudes towards drunkenness, alongside a greater sense of control and potential regret about drunkenness are likely to be important factors when considering how to change people's intentions to drink. The study shows the potential to reduce the frequency of drinking behaviour when intentions are changed, and provides recommendations for future interventions of this nature. © 2010 Informa UK Ltd.

Phosphorus enrichment effects on interactions among the ecosystem components in a long-hydroperiod oligotrophic marsh in Everglades National Park

Hydrology and a history of oligotrophy unite the massive landscape comprising freshwater marsh in Everglades National Park. With restoration of water flow to the Everglades, phosphorus (P) enrichment, both from agricultural and domestic sources, may increase nutrient load to the marsh ecosystem. Previous research of P enrichment of Everglades soil, periphyton, and macrophytes revealed each of these ecosystem components responds to increased P loads with increased production and nutrient content. Interactions among these ecosystem components and how P affects the magnitude and direction of interaction are poorly understood and are the focus of my research. Here I present results of a two-year, two-factor experiment of P enrichment and manipulation in Everglades National Park. I quantified biomass, nutrient content, and production for periphyton and macrophyes and found macrophyte removal drives change in nutrient content, biomass, and production of periphyton. Periphyton removal did not appear to control macrophyte dynamics. Soil chemical and physical characteristics were explained primarily by site differences but there was an enrichment effect of soil porewater nitrite + nitrate, nitrite, and soluble reactive phosphorus. Flocculent materials production and depth were significantly affected by macrophyte removal where depth and production were significantly greater with the no macrophyte treatment. The dominant macrophyte of the marsh, Eleocharis cellulosa, increased more in the unenriched marsh than in the enriched marsh. The combination of these findings suggests that dynamics in floc and periphyton are controlled primarily by the presence of periphyton and that this relationship is significantly affected by low-level P enrichment. These results may be valuable in their application to both managers and policy makers who are involved in the Everglades restoration process. ^