Fiscal Sustainability in a New Keynesian Model

Recent work on optimal monetary and fiscal policy in New Keynesian models suggests that it is optimal to allow steady-state debt to follow a random walk. Leith and Wren-Lewis (2012) consider the nature of the timeinconsistency involved in such a policy and its implication for discretionary policy-making. We show that governments are tempted, given inflationary expectations, to utilize their monetary and fiscal instruments in the initial period to change the ultimate debt burden they need to service. We demonstrate that this temptation is only eliminated if following shocks, the new steady-state debt is equal to the original (efficient) debt level even though there is no explicit debt target in the government’s objective function. Analytically and in a series of numerical simulations we show which instrument is used to stabilize the debt depends crucially on the degree of nominal inertia and the size of the debt-stock. We also show that the welfare consequences of introducing debt are negligible for precommitment policies, but can be significant for discretionary policy. Finally, we assess the credibility of commitment policy by considering a quasi-commitment policy which allows for different probabilities of reneging on past promises. This on-line Appendix extends the results of this paper.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

Delay and Haircuts in Sovereign Debt: Recovery and Sustainability

One of the striking aspects of recent sovereign debt restructurings is, conditional on default, delay length is positively correlated with the size of "haircut", which is size of creditor losses. In this paper, we develop an incomplete information model of debt restructuring where the prospect of uncertain economic recovery and the signalling about sustainability concerns together generate multi-period delay. The results from our analysis show that there is a correlation between delay length and size of haircut. Such results are supported by evidence. We show that Pareto ranking of equilibria, conditional on default, can be altered once we take into account the ex ante incentive of sovereign debtor. We use our results to evaluate proposals advocated to ensure orderly resolution of sovereign debt crises.

Integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability: the pros and cons of reductionism

In this paper I review a series of theoretical concepts that are relevant for the integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability but that are not generally included in the curriculum of the various scientific disciplines dealing with quantitative analysis of agriculture. I first illustrate with plain narratives and concrete examples that sustainability is an extremely complex issue requiring the simultaneous consideration of several aspects, which cannot be reduced into a single indicator of performance. Following, I justify this obvious need for multi-criteria analysis with theoretical concepts dealing with the epistemological predicament of complexity, starting from classic philosophical lessons to arrive to recent developments in complex system theory, in particular Rosen´s theory of modelling relation which is essential to analyze the quality of any quantitative representation. The implications of these theoretical concepts are then illustrated with applications of multi-criteria analysis to the sustainability of agriculture. I wrap up by pointing out the crucial difference between "integrated assessment" and "integrated analysis". An integrated analysis is a set of indicators and analytical models generating an analytical output. An integrated assessment is much more than that. It is about finding an effective way to deal with three key issues: (i) legitimacy – how to handle the unavoidable existence of legitimate but contrasting points of view about different meanings given by social actors to the word "development"; (ii) pertinence – how to handle in a coherent way scientific analyses referring to different scales and dimensions; and (iii) credibility – how to handle the unavoidable existence of uncertainty and genuine ignorance, when dealing with the analysis of future scenarios.

Toward partial reorientation of land management for sustainability in view of material circulation: biophysical and historical analysis

This paper explores two major issues, from biophysical and historical viewpoints. We examine land management, which we define as the long-term fertility maintenance of land in relation to agriculture, fishery and forestry. We also explore humans’ positive role as agents aiming to reinforce harmonious materials circulation within the land. Liebig’s view on nature, agriculture and land, emphasizes the maintenance of long-term land fertility based on his agronomical thought that the circulation of matter in agricultural fields must be maintained with manure as much as possible. The thoughts of several classical economists, on nature, agriculture and land are reassessed from Liebig’s view point. Then, the land management problem is discussed at a much more fundamental level, to understand the necessary conditions for life in relation to land management. This point is analyzed in terms of two mechanisms: entropy disposal on the earth, and material circulation against gravitational field. Finally from the historical example of the metropolis of Edo, it is shown that there is yet another necessary condition for the sustainable management of land based on the creation of harmonious material cycles among cities, farm land, forests and surrounding sea areas in which humans play a vital role as agent.

'Education for Sustainability' - The National Strategy on Education for Sustainable Development in Ireland, 2014-2020

This National Strategy on Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) has been developed by the Department of Education and Skills (DES), in consultation with key stakeholders. It provides a framework to support the contribution that the education sector is making and will continue to make towards a more sustainable future at a number of levels: individual, community, local, national and international. This strategy is primarily influenced by the national strategy on sustainable development, Our Sustainable Future - A Framework for Sustainable Development in Ireland (hereafter referred to as Our Sustainable Future), which was published by the Department of the Environment, Community and Local Government in 2012. It is also framed within the current context of limited financial resources. The result is an ESD strategy that seeks to challenge individuals, organisations and society as a whole, but particularly in educational contexts, through recommendations that are pragmatic rather than aspirational in nature.

Examining the sustainability issues in UKOER projects : Developing a sustainable OER ecosystem in HE

The development of open educational resources (OERs) is becoming a strategic priority for governments and education institutions around the world, in response to funding cuts and rising costs in educational provision. In the United Kingdom, a government-sponsored Pilot Programme on Open Educational Recourses (JISC/HEA, 2009) was launched in 2009 with an initial budget of £5.7m. This paper reviews the key sustainability issues identified by the projects including the different approaches and models that have been adopted in order to sustain the continuing development and release of OER once funding has ended. The analysis also considers the challenges relating to the development and implementation of policies and processes for sustainable OER practice within institutions and among academics. The paper concludes by drawing on the experiences from the wider United Kingdom and international OER communities to develop a sustainable OER ecosystem model that can facilitate discussions on future development of OER initiatives.

Collective Intelligence for OER Sustainability

To thrive, the Open Educational Resource (OER) movement, or a given initiative, must make sense of a complex, changing environment. Since "sustainability" is a desirable systemic capacity that our community should display, we consider a number of principles that sharpen the concept: resilience, sensemaking and complexity. We outline how these motivate the concept of collective intelligence (CI), we give examples of what OER-CI might look like, and we describe the emerging Cohere CI platform we are developing in response to these requirements.

Building a Manifesto for OER sustainability : UK experiences

Evidence of sustainability, or the potential to achieve this, is increasingly a pre-requisite for OER activity, whether imposed by funders, by institutions requiring a 'business case' for OER, or practitioners themselves - academics, educational technologists and librarians, concerned about how to justify engagement with a unfamiliar, and unproven practices, in today's climate of limited resource. However, it is not clear what is meant by 'sustainability' in relation to OER, what will be needed to achieve or demonstrate this, nor who the expectation of sustainability relates to. This paper draws on experiences of UK OER projects to identify aspirations that those involved in delivering OER activity have for OER sustainability ¿ what a 'manifesto' for OER sustainability beyond project funding, based on OER use, might look like.

What do academic libraries have to do with Open Educational Resources? Theme : Long term sustainability of open education projects first steps to start up

This paper will discuss the possible roles of academic libraries in promoting, supporting, and sustaining institutional Open Educational Resource initiatives. It will note areas in which libraries or librarians have skills and knowledge that intersect with some of the needs of academic staff and students as they use and release OERs. It will also present the results of a brief survey of the views of some OER initiatives on the current and potential role of academic libraries.

Sustainability of vector control strategies in the Gran Chaco Region: current challenges and possible approaches

Sustainability has become a focal point of the international agenda. At the heart of its range of distribution in the Gran Chaco Region, the elimination of Triatoma infestans has failed, even in areas subject to intensive professional vector control efforts. Chagas disease control programs traditionally have been composed of two divorced entities: a vector control program in charge of routine field operations (bug detection and insecticide spraying) and a disease control program in charge of screening blood donors, diagnosis, etiologic treatment and providing medical care to chronic patients. The challenge of sustainable suppression of bug infestation and Trypanosoma cruzi transmission can be met through integrated disease management, in which vector control is combined with active case detection and treatment to increase impact, cost-effectiveness and public acceptance in resource-limited settings. Multi-stakeholder involvement may add sustainability and resilience to the surveillance system. Chagas vector control and disease management must remain a regional effort within the frame of sustainable development rather than being viewed exclusively as a matter of health pertinent to the health sector. Sustained and continuous coordination between governments, agencies, control programs, academia and the affected communities is critical.

The sustainability of a Spanish Regional Virtual Library

Objectives: The Andalusian Health e-Library (BV-SSPA) is the National Health Library in the region of Andalusia (Spain). It is a corporate hospital library created in 2006. The year 2012 is a turning point for the Spanish economy, and the BV-SSPA has to demonstrate that it is cost-effective and sustainable. Methods: Andalusia is a wide Spanish region with more than 8 million inhabitants, more than 100,000 health professionals for 41 hospitals, 1,500 primary health care centers, and 28 centers for nonmedical attention purposes, and the BV-SSPA was created to cover all these health services. It was appointed the only intermediary for contracting electronic resources destined to the Andalusian Health System. Hospitals are not allowed to subscribe any resources, and the same services are offered for the whole system. Results: In 2011, the BV-SSPA reached the biggest electronic health sciences resource collection in Spain: a total amount of 2,431 subscribed titles, besides 8 databases and other scientific information resources. The following goals were also achieved: • Cost-effectiveness: In 2011, the BV-SSPA represented a saving percentage of 25.42% compared to the individual hospital subscription costs if they would have continued their contracting. • Efficiency: Central purchasing has meant for the Andalusian health professionals, the democracy of research resource access. Some services were also created: • integrated and safe remote access to all the library resources independent of the user’s location • citizenship website, where the resources for citizenship are grouped • Centralized Document Supply Service, focusing all the article orders from and for the Andalusian Health System • institutional repository, which contains the whole intellectual, scientific production generated by the Andalusian health professionals • computer application to study the Andalusian health system scientific production • Social media as instrument for communicating with users • science web, a defined space for researchers. Conclusions: Although Andalusia is facing a dreadful economic situation, the BV-SSPA has demonstrated its sustainability: • For 2012 renewals, it carried out a statistics study allowing obtaining enough data for deciding which titles were not being discharged by users. • Titles with no discharges or without impact factor were rejected after strong negotiation with suppliers, as the BV-SSPA after 6 years on, is considered a strong dealer by them. • This meant savings of 14% from the original budget for 2012, which allowed the continuity of the BV-SSPA without decreasing the quality offered to their users.

Agriculture, technological change and environmental sustainability: Looking for a win-win water policy strategy

This paper analyses the effects that technological changes in agriculture would have on environmental, social and economic indicators. Specifically, our study is focused on two alternative technological improvements: the modernization of water transportation systems versus the increase in the total factor productivity of agriculture. Using a computable general equilibrium model for the Catalan economy, our results suggest that a water policy that leads to greater economic efficiency is not necessarily optimal if we consider social or environmental criteria. Moreover, improving environmental sustainability depends less on the type of technological change than on the institutional framework in which technological change occurs. Keywords: agricultural technological changes, computable general equilibrium model, economic impact, water policy