Brazil: the international financial crisis and counter-cyclical policies

Includes bibliography

Identifying financial crises in real time

Following the thermodynamic formulation of a multifractal measure that was shown to enable the detection of large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crises in real time. We calculate the partition function from which we can obtain thermodynamic quantities analogous to the free energy and specific heat. The index is defined as the normalized energy variation and it can be used to study the behavior of stochastic time series, such as financial market daily data. Famous financial market crashes-Black Thursday (1929), Black Monday (1987) and the subprime crisis (2008)-are identified with clear and robust results. The method is also applied to the market fluctuations of 2011. From these results it appears as if the apparent crisis of 2011 is of a different nature to the other three. We also show that the analysis has forecasting capabilities. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelagem estocástica de opções de câmbio no Brasil: aplicação de transformada rápida de Fourier e expansão assintótica ao modelo de Heston

Pós-graduação em Física - IFT

Financiamento externo das empresas com ações negociadas na bolsa em tempos de crise

Incluye Bibliografía

Capital flows to Latin America: quarterly developments

Includes bibliography

A crise da Grécia: origens, interpretações e alternativas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Finanças comportamentais e a formação de bolhas especulativas

Economic crises caused by speculative bubbles are recurring in economic history but there is still no consensus on how it begins, grows and overflows. Economists and regulators seem to be inefficient in predicting and preventing this process, which is so detrimental to economic functioning. This failure proved to be obvious with the American subprime crises, which had great impact on various sectors of the U.S. economy. In this paper, we perform a literature review of the traditional theory of finance, mainly represented by the Efficient Market Hypothesis. According to this theory, asset prices always reflect their intrinsic value, assumption that doesn’t match the price boom followed by a crash, observed in the crisis generated by speculative bubbles. Finally, we present a new way to analyze this phenomenon, in the light of the investors’ behavioral aspects and the flaws inherent to the financial markets

Banco central e política econômica: uma comparação entre Brasil e Argentina no período de 2005 a 2010

Este trabalho visa a compreensão das diferenças nos Regimes monetários de Brasil e Argentina, apesar de sua proximidade geográfica. Objetiva-se explanar os intrumentos utilizados pelos respectivos Bancos Centrais durante os anos compreendidos pelo estudo, como meio de compreensão das transformações ocorridas no cenário econômico, seja pelos choques externos, como também pelas medidas tomadas. Assim sendo, a partir da planificação dos modelos nacionais, será possível comparar as situações internas econômica-social em contraposição ao ambiente criado pela Crise do Subprime, e consequentemente compreender qual país conseguiu enfrentá-la de forma mais eficaz

O Programa Minha Casa Minha Vida, o mercado imobiliário e o direito à cidade: análise dos impactos do programa na cidade de São Carlos - SP

This article discusses, in general matters, the economic and social motivations, the organization and development of the program Minha Casa Minha Vida, made in 2009, by Federal Government of Brazil. The objective of this work was to analyse the Brazilian economic and housing context, and the program relation with the Subprime international crisis, which has been started at United States in 2008, as well as analysing and discussing the logistics and the program accessibility. The MCMV program, part of the PAC – Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento – has the intention to combat the economic crisis that had been installed and also minimize the deficit housing of the country. From PAC's initial estimate, US$250 Bi, it has been spent US$129 Bi and it has already been approved more than US$125 Bi designated for the second stage of the program, whose the estimate of PAC2 is about one trillion and a half of brazilian reais. One million homes were built between 2009 and 2012, and the goal for 2014 is two million and a half of new residences. If comparing the current program with the oldest programs, progress were observed ,however, problems and inconsistences are clearly seen: in the real concernment, the truly beneficiary, and contradiction between a social and economic program to urban demands, among other situational factors. It’s also evident, the incentivation for a new residential and closed neighbourhoods, thereby adding to the fragmentation of the urban space, beyond of the exclusion socioespacial caused financing of residences in farest allotments. The capitalist production of the space it’s clearly thriving in analysis of thisfinancing package of the urban habitation, where the biggest glebas rise between central neighbourhood and the newest generated suburb, they evidence the negligence of the authorities in well managing the space, not executing the application of urban instruments of planning the social function, and...

O setor de venture capital, as startups e o empreendedorismo em Israel, nos anos recentes

Some of the factors that help to explain the Israeli success case on promoting high-tech start-ups backed by venture capital funds can be found in the risk-taking culture of the country, the vast technological know-how associated with the huge military development, the high offer of human intellectual capital due to the immigration processes, and finally also the FDI inflows, mainly from the United States. Even though, these factors would not have the same effects in the economy unless the right structures were founded by the public-private sectors partnerships for the high-tech industry development and the adaptation of the investment industry surpasses two of the deepest global financial crisis: the dot-com bubble in the 2000’s and the subprime in 2008

Uma crise à lá Minsky?: uma análise da crise financeira sob a ótica de Hyman Minsky

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Comprendere le "cose della finanza": il termine cdo nella stampa italiana e tedesca

L’esplosione della crisi nel 2007 ha contribuito alla diffusione di numerosi termini e concetti afferenti al dominio nella finanza strutturata non solo nelle pagine dei quotidiani specializzati, ma anche di quelli generalisti, producendo uno straniante «sentimento neologico» che ha accresciuto il senso di inaccessibilità e soggezione che in molti nutrono nei riguardi delle “cose della finanza” e delle notizie economiche, percepite come ostiche e incomprensibili. Questo lavoro mira a dimostrare che le cause di questo imperante senso di smarrimento di fronte all’informazione economica sono da addurre a più fattori: alla comune scarsa dimestichezza con il linguaggio e le “cose della finanza” dei cittadini; alla complessità dei concetti che i termini in questione veicolano e alla maniera in cui essi vengono presentati dalla vulgata giornalistica. Questa tesi si articola in quattro capitoli: nel primo si discute del tirocinio svolto presso la DGT della Commissione Europea, che ha fornito degli utili spunti per la stesura del presente lavoro; nel secondo si evidenzia l’importanza di una corretta educazione finanziaria per la formazione di una cittadinanza consapevole, in grado alimentare un sistema finanziario sano. Nel terzo capitolo si discute di finanza strutturata, volgendo particolare attenzione al CDO, di cui anche la Consob ha sottolineato l’intrinseca complessità e che ha assunto un ruolo da protagonista nell’esplosione della crisi dei mutui subprime. Nel quarto capitolo si delinea un breve quadro dell’informazione finanziaria in Italia e in Germania; mediante l’analisi di due corpora comparabili e diacronici si mira, infine, a osservare in che modo i giornali, nel corso degli anni, hanno veicolato il concetto che sottende al termine CDO rintracciando, contestualmente, similarità e differenze tra la stampa generalista e quella specializzata e tra i quotidiani tedeschi e quelli italiani.

The Continuing Practice and Impact of Discrimination

This chapter provides a detailed discussion of the evidence on housing and mortgage lending discrimination, as well as the potential impacts of such discrimination on minority outcomes like homeownership and neighborhood environment. The paper begins by discussing conceptual issues surrounding empirical analyses of discrimination including explanations for why discrimination takes place, defining different forms of discrimination, and the appropriate interpretation of observed racial and ethnic differences in treatment or outcomes. Next, the paper reviews evidence on housing market discrimination starting with evidence of segregation and price differences in the housing market and followed by direct evidence of discrimination by real estate agents in paired testing studies. Finally, mortgage market discrimination and barriers in access to mortgage credit are discussed. This discussion begins with an assessment of the role credit barriers play in explaining racial and ethnic differences in homeownership and follows with discussions of analyses of underwriting and the price of credit based on administrative and private sector data sources including analyses of the subprime market. The paper concludes that housing discrimination has declined especially in the market for owner-occupied housing and does not appear to play a large role in limiting the neighborhood choices of minority households or the concentration of minorities into central cities. On the other hand, the patterns of racial centralization and lower home ownership rates of African-Americans appear to be related to each other, and lower minority homeownership rates are in part attributable to barriers in the market for mortgage credit. The paper presents considerable evidence of racial and ethnic differences in mortgage underwriting, as well as additional evidence suggesting these differences may be attributable to differential provision of coaching, assistance, and support by loan officers. At this point, innovation in loan products, the shift towards risk based pricing, and growth of the subprime market have not mitigated the role credit barriers play in explaining racial and ethnic differences in homeownership. Further, the growth of the subprime lending industry appears to have segmented the mortgage market in terms of geography leading to increased costs of relying on local/neighborhood sources of mortgage credit and affecting the integrity of many low-income minority neighborhoods through increased foreclosure rates.

Granger causality and systemic risk

Building on the concept of Granger causality in risk in Hong et al. (2009), and focusing on an international sample of large-capitalization banks, we test for predictability in comovements in the left tails of returns of individual banks and the global system. The main results show that large individual shocks (defined as balance-sheet contractions exceeding the 1% VaR level) are a strong predictor of subsequent shocks in the global system. This evidence is particularly strong for US banks with large desks of proprietary trading. Similarly, we document strong evidence of financial vulnerabilities (exposures) to systemic shocks in US subprime creditors.