996 resultados para simultaneous volatility


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The present invention relates to genetically modified cells that are capable of optimal transgene expression by co-expressing a silencing suppressor whilst at the same time are also capable of silencing a gene, such as a naturally occurring gene of the cell. The present invention also relates to methods of producing the modified cells, as well as relates to processes for obtaining a genetically modified cell with a desired property.

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We test the predictive ability of investor sentiment on the return and volatility at the aggregate market level in the U.S., four largest European countries and three Asia-Pacific countries. We find that in the U.S., France and Italy periods of high consumer confidence levels are followed by low market returns. In Japan both the level and the change in consumer confidence boost the market return in the next month. Further, shifts in sentiment significantly move conditional volatility in most of the countries, and in Italy such impacts lead to an increase in returns by 4.7% in the next month.

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This paper presents a novel method to rank map hypotheses by the quality of localization they afford. The highest ranked hypothesis at any moment becomes the active representation that is used to guide the robot to its goal location. A single static representation is insufficient for navigation in dynamic environments where paths can be blocked periodically, a common scenario which poses significant challenges for typical planners. In our approach we simultaneously rank multiple map hypotheses by the influence that localization in each of them has on locally accurate odometry. This is done online for the current locally accurate window by formulating a factor graph of odometry relaxed by localization constraints. Comparison of the resulting perturbed odometry of each hypothesis with the original odometry yields a score that can be used to rank map hypotheses by their utility. We deploy the proposed approach on a real robot navigating a structurally noisy office environment. The configuration of the environment is physically altered outside the robots sensory horizon during navigation tasks to demonstrate the proposed approach of hypothesis selection.

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This paper employs a VAR-GARCH model to investigate the return links and volatility transmission between the S&P 500 and commodity price indices for energy, food, gold and beverages over the turbulent period from 2000 to 2011. Understanding the price behavior of commodity prices and the volatility transmission mechanism between these markets and the stock exchanges are crucial for each participant, including governments, traders, portfolio managers, consumers, and producers. For return and volatility spillover, the results show significant transmission among the S&P 500 and commodity markets. The past shocks and volatility of the S&P 500 strongly influenced the oil and gold markets. This study finds that the highest conditional correlations are between the S&P 500 and gold index and the S&P 500 and WTI index. We also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for commodities/S&P 500 portfolio holdings using the estimates for each index. Overall, our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity and commodity markets. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

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Trade flows of commodities are generally affected by the principles of comparative advantage in a free trade. However, trade flows might be enhanced or distorted not only by various government interventions, but also by exchange rate fluctuations among others. This study applies a commodity-specific gravity model to selected vegetable trade flows among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries to determine the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade flows. Using the data from 1996 to 2002, the results show that, while the exchange rate uncertainty significantly reduces trade in the majority of commodity flows, there is evidence that both short- and long-term volatility have positive effect on trade flows of specific commodities. This study also tests the regional preferential trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the EU, and their different effects on commodities.

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For robots operating in outdoor environments, a number of factors, including weather, time of day, rough terrain, high speeds, and hardware limitations, make performing vision-based simultaneous localization and mapping with current techniques infeasible due to factors such as image blur and/or underexposure, especially on smaller platforms and low-cost hardware. In this paper, we present novel visual place-recognition and odometry techniques that address the challenges posed by low lighting, perceptual change, and low-cost cameras. Our primary contribution is a novel two-step algorithm that combines fast low-resolution whole image matching with a higher-resolution patch-verification step, as well as image saliency methods that simultaneously improve performance and decrease computing time. The algorithms are demonstrated using consumer cameras mounted on a small vehicle in a mixed urban and vegetated environment and a car traversing highway and suburban streets, at different times of day and night and in various weather conditions. The algorithms achieve reliable mapping over the course of a day, both when incrementally incorporating new visual scenes from different times of day into an existing map, and when using a static map comprising visual scenes captured at only one point in time. Using the two-step place-recognition process, we demonstrate for the first time single-image, error-free place recognition at recall rates above 50% across a day-night dataset without prior training or utilization of image sequences. This place-recognition performance enables topologically correct mapping across day-night cycles.

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This paper examines the impact of allowing for stochastic volatility and jumps (SVJ) in a structural model on corporate credit risk prediction. The results from a simulation study verify the better performance of the SVJ model compared with the commonly used Merton model, and three sources are provided to explain the superiority. The empirical analysis on two real samples further ascertains the importance of recognizing the stochastic volatility and jumps by showing that the SVJ model decreases bias in spread prediction from the Merton model, and better explains the time variation in actual CDS spreads. The improvements are found particularly apparent in small firms or when the market is turbulent such as the recent financial crisis.

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Recent years have seen global food prices rise and become more volatile. Price surges in 2008 and 2011 held devastating consequences for hundreds of millions of people and negatively impacted many more. Today one billion people are hungry. The issue is a high priority for many international agencies and national governments. At the Cannes Summit in November 2011, the G20 leaders agreed to implement five objectives aiming to mitigate food price volatility and protect vulnerable persons. To succeed, the global community must now translate these high level policy objectives into practical actions. In this paper, we describe challenges and unresolved dilemmas before the global community in implementing these five objectives. The paper describes recent food price volatility trends and an evaluation of possible causes. Special attention is given to climate change and water scarcity, which have the potential to impact food prices to a much greater extent in coming decades. We conclude the world needs an improved knowledge base and new analytical capabilities, developed in parallel with the implementation of practical policy actions, to manage food price volatility and reduce hunger and malnutrition. This requires major innovations and paradigm shifts by the global community.