957 resultados para rare event simulation


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PURPOSE: The prognostic impact of complete response (CR) achievement in multiple myeloma (MM) has been shown mostly in the context of autologous stem-cell transplantation. Other levels of response have been defined because, even with high-dose therapy, CR is a relatively rare event. The purpose of this study was to analyze the prognostic impact of very good partial response (VGPR) in patients treated with high-dose therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All patients were included in the Intergroupe Francophone du Myelome 99-02 and 99-04 trials and treated with vincristine, doxorubicin, and dexamethasone (VAD) induction therapy followed by double autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT). Best post-ASCT response assessment was available for 802 patients. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 67 months, median event-free survival (EFS) and 5-year EFS were 42 months and 34%, respectively, for 405 patients who achieved at least VGPR after ASCT versus 32 months and 26% in 288 patients who achieved only partial remission (P = .005). Five-year overall survival (OS) was significantly superior in patients achieving at least VGPR (74% v 61% P = .0017). In multivariate analysis, achievement of less than VGPR was an independent factor predicting shorter EFS and OS. Response to VAD had no impact on EFS and OS. The impact of VGPR achievement on EFS and OS was significant in patients with International Staging System stages 2 to 3 and for patients with poor-risk cytogenetics t(4;14) or del(17p). CONCLUSION: In the context of ASCT, achievement of at least VGPR is a simple prognostic factor that has importance in intermediate and high-risk MM and can be informative in more patients than CR.

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Deep vein thrombosis in children and adolescents is a quite rare event. Risk factors most often associated with DVT in this particular population are: central vein catheters, neoplasia, vascular malformations and oral contraception. Diagnosis and management of DVT in adolescents does not differ greatly from that of adults. Compression ultrasound is the initial exam of choice. Hospitalization is often not necessary and treatment can be started by using low molecular weight heparin followed by oral anti-vitamin K antagonists. Thrombophilia screening is not routinely recommended and should be reserved for those patients for whom results would change therapeutical management.

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Objectives: Recent population genetic studies suggest that the Staphylococcal Chromosome Cassettes mec (SCCmec) was acquired at a global scale much more frequently than previously thought. We hypothesized that such acquisitions can also be observed at a local level. In the present study, we aimed at investigating the diversity of SCCmec in a local MRSA population, where the dissemination of four MRSA clones has been observed (JCM 2007, 45: 3729). Methods: All the MRSA isolates (one per patient) recovered in the Vaud canton of Switzerland from January 2005 to December 2008 were analyzed in this study. We used the Double Locus Sequence Typing (DLST) method, based on clfB and spa loci, and the e-BURST algorithm to group the types with one allele in common (i.e. clone). To increase the discriminatory power of the DLST method, a third polymorphic marker (clfA) was further analyzed on a sub-sample of isolates. The SCCmec type of each isolate was determined with the first two PCRs of the Kondo scheme. Results: DLST analysis indicated that 1884/2036 isolates (92.5%) belong to the four predominant clones. A majority of isolates in each clone harboured an identical SCCmec type: 61/64 (95%) isolates to DLST clone 1−1 SCCmec IV, 1282/1323 (97%) to clone 2−2 SCCmec II, 237/288 (82%) to clone 3−3 SCCmec IV, and 192/209 (92%) to clone 4−4 SCCmec I. Unexpectedly, different SCCmec types were present in a single predominant DLST clone: SCCmec V plus one unusual type in 3 isolates of clone 1−1; SCCmec I, IV, V, VI plus two unusual types in 41 isolates of clone 2−2; SCCmec I, II, VI plus three unusual types in 51 isolates of clone 3−3; and SCCmec II, IV, V plus one unusual type in 17 isolates of clone 4−4. Interestingly, adding a third locus generally did not change the classification of incongruent SCCmec types, suggesting that these SCCmec elements have been acquired locally during the dissemination of the clones. Conclusion: Although the SCCmec diversity within clones was relatively low at a local level, a significant proportion of isolates with different SCCmec have been identified in the four major clones. This suggests that the local acquisition of SCCmec elements is not a rare event and illustrates the great capacity of S. aureus to quickly adapt to its environment by acquiring new genetic elements.

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The diagnostics of focal nodular hyperplasia is reached through the use of imaging. When the diagnostic is certain, surgical abstention is the rule. Nevertheless, we were confronted with two cases of a rare complication; that of intraperitoneal rupture. In this situation, we suggest to first do an arteriography to control the bleeding, then to perform surgery when the patient has reached hemodynamic stability. Spontaneous rupture as a complication of benign nodular hyperplasia remains a rare event and only five cases were reported in litterature.

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Although prosthetic joint infection (PJI) is a rare event after arthroplasty, it represents a significant complication that is associated with high morbidity, need for complex treatment, and substantial healthcare costs. An accurate and rapid diagnosis of PJI is crucial for treatment success. Current diagnostic methods in PJI are insufficient with 10-30% false-negative cultures. Consequently, there is a need for research and development into new methods aimed at improving diagnostic accuracy and speed of detection. In this article, we review available conventional diagnostic methods for the diagnosis of PJI (laboratory markers, histopathology, synovial fluid and periprosthetic tissue cultures), new diagnostic methods (sonication of implants, specific and multiplex PCR, mass spectrometry) and innovative techniques under development (new laboratory markers, microcalorimetry, electrical method, reverse transcription [RT]-PCR, fluorescence in situ hybridization [FISH], biofilm microscopy, microarray identification, and serological tests). The results of highly sensitive diagnostic techniques with unknown specificity should be interpreted with caution. The organism identified by a new method may represent a real pathogen that was unrecognized by conventional diagnostic methods or contamination during specimen sampling, transportation, or processing. For accurate interpretation, additional studies are needed, which would evaluate the long-term outcome (usually >2 years) with or without antimicrobial treatment. It is expected that new rapid, accurate, and fully automatic diagnostic tests will be developed soon.

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We investigated the role that erythroviruses (parvovirus B19 and erythrovirus genotypes 2 and 3) play in the lives of immunosuppressed HIV-infected patients with chronic anemia. We screened the serum samples of 428 patients by specific ultrasensitive real-time polymerase chain reaction assay. Sixteen patients had circulating DNA, with no apparent clinical impact. Erythrovirus-associated anemia is an extremely rare event in HIV-infected patients.

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rejection can lead to loss of function. Histological reading of endomyocardial biopsy remains the "gold standard" for guiding immunosuppression, despite its methodological limitations (sampling error and interobserver variability). The measurement of the T2 relaxation time has been suggested for detection of allograft rejection, on the pathophysiological basis that the T2 relaxation time prolongs with local edema resulting from acute allograft rejection. Using breath-held cardiac magnetic resonance T2 mapping at 1.5 T, Usman et al. (CircCardiovascImaging2012) detected moderate allograft rejection (grade 2R, ISHLT 2004). With modern immunosuppression grade 2R rejection has become a rare event, but the need remains for a technique that permits the discrimination of absent (grade 0R) and mild rejection (grade 1R). We therefore investigated whether an increase of magnetic field strength to 3T and the use of real-time navigator-gated respiration compensation allow for an increase in the sensitivity of T2 relaxation time detection that is necessary to achieve this discrimination. Methods: Eighteen patients received EMB (Tan et al., ArchPatholLabMed2007) and cardiac T2 mapping on the same day. Reading of T2 maps was blinded to the histological results. For final analysis, 3 cases with known 2R rejection at the time of T2 mapping were added, yielding 21 T2 mapping sessions. A respiration-navigator-gated radial gradient-recalled-echo pulse sequence (resolution 1.17 mm2, matrix 2562, trigger time 3 heartbeats, T2 preparation duration TET2 Prep = 60/30/0 ms) was applied to obtain 3 short-axis T2 maps (van Heeswijk et al., JACCCardiovascImaging2012), which were segmented according to AHA guidelines (Cerqueira et al, Circulation2001). The highest segmental T2 values were grouped according to histological rejection grade and differences were analyzed by Student's t-test, except for the non-blinded cases with 2R rejection. The degree of discrimination was determined using the Spearman's ranked correlation test. Results: The high-quality T2 maps allowed for visual differentiation of the rejection degrees (Figure 1), and the correlation of T2 mapping with the histological grade of acute cellular rejection was significant (Spearman's r = 0.56, p = 0.007). The 0R (n = 15) and 1R (n = 3) degrees demonstrated significantly different T2 values (46.9 ± 5.0 and 54.3 ± 3.0 ms, p = 0.02, Figure 2). Cases with 2R rejection showed clear T2 elevation (T2 = 60.3 ± 16.2 ms). Conclusions: This pilot study demonstrates that non-invasive free-breathing cardiac T2 mapping at 3T discriminates between no and mild cardiac allograft rejection. Confirmation of these encouraging results in a larger cohort should consider a study able to show equivalency or superiority of T2 mapping.

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BACKGROUND: Inactivation of tumour-related genes by promoter hypermethylation is a common epigenetic event in the development of a variety of tumours. AIM: To investigate in primary uveal melanoma the status of promoter methylation of genes thought to be involved in tumour development: p16, TIMP3, RASSF1, RARB, FHIT, hTERT and APC. METHODS: Gene promoter methylation was studied by methylation-sensitive single-strand conformation analysis and dot-blot assay in a series of 23 primary uveal melanomas. All DNA samples were obtained from paraffin-embedded formalin-fixed tissue blocks. RESULTS: hTERT promoter methylation was found with a relatively high frequency (52%). Promoter methylation of p16, TIMP3, RASSF1, RARB, FHIT and APC was a rare event. For none of these genes did promoter methylation exceed 15% of tumour samples, and, for some genes (FHIT and APC), no methylation was found at all. Furthermore, promoter methylation was absent in 39% (9/23) of cases. In only 22% (5/23) of cases was hypermethylation of at least two promoters observed. CONCLUSIONS: Promoter methylation of hTERT is a regular event in uveal melanoma. Hypermethylation of the other genes studied does not seem to be an essential element in the development of this tumour. As promoter methylation of APC, RASSF1 and RARB is often observed in cutaneous melanoma, these results suggest that different epigenetic events occur in the development of cutaneous and uveal melanoma.

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Työn tavoitteena oli tutkia kuljetusketjun automatisoinnin kehittämistä tapahtumapohjaisen simuloinnin avulla. Työn teoria osassa käsitellään yleisellä tasolla simuloinnin teoriaa, siihen liittyviä käsitteitä ja erityisesti simulointiprojektin läpiviennin vaiheita. Tässä osassa saadaan vastaukset seuraaviin kysymyksiin: - Mitä tapahtumapohjaisella simuloinnilla tarkoitetaan? - Mitkä ovat simuloinnin hyödyt ja rajoitteet? - Mitä käyttökohteita simuloinnilla on? - Minkälaisia ohjelmia simulointiin käytetään? - Mitä vaiheita simulointiprojekti sisältää? Soveltavassa osassa tutkitaan kuinka tapahtumapohjaista simulointia hyödynnettiin Veto-Ketju -projektissa ja millaisia tuloksia rakennetulla simulointimallilla saavutettiin. Veto-Ketju -projekti käsittelee kuljetusketjun sekä varasto- ja satamakäsittelyn tehostamista automatisoinnin avulla. Projektin vetäjänä ja automaattisen tavarankäsittelyjärjestelmän toimittajana on Pesmel Oy ja satamatoimintojen ja logistiikan asiantuntijana SysOpen-konserniin kuuluva suunnittelu- ja konsulttitoimisto EP-Logistics Oy. Paperiteollisuudesta mukana ovat UPM-Kymmene ja M-real, satamaoperaattorina toimii Rauma Stevedoring ja kuljetusoperaattorina VR Cargo. Veto-Ketju –projektin simulointitutkimuksessa varmistettiin suunnitellun automaattisen junavaunujen purkausjärjestelmän toiminta ennen sen käyttöönottoa ja tutkittiin erilaisten toimintatapojen vaikutuksia satamatoimintoihin, satamassa tarvittavien resurssien määrään ja määritettiin tarvittavien varastojen koko. Simulointimallin avulla pystyttiin osoittamaan selkeästi erilaisten toimintavaihtoehtojen erot. Tällä tavoin saatiin tuotetuksi lisää tietoa päätöksenteon tueksi muun muassa järjestelmän sijoituspaikan ja mahdollisen uuden varaston rakentamisen suhteen.

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Rautateillä käytettävät tavaravaunut ovat vanhenemassa hyvin nopeasti; tämä koskee niin Venäjää, Suomea, Ruotsia kuin laajemminkin Eurooppaa. Venäjällä ja Euroopassa on käytössä runsaasti vaunuja, jotka ovat jo ylittäneet niille suositeltavan käyttöiän. Silti niitä käytetään kuljetuksissa, kun näitä korvaavia uusia vaunuja ei ole tarpeeksi saatavilla. Uusimmat vaunut ovat yleensä vaunuja vuokraavien yritysten tai uusien rautatieoperaattorien hankkimia - tämä koskee erityisesti Venäjää, jossa vaunuvuokraus on noussut erittäin suosituksi vaihtoehdoksi. Ennusteissa kerrotaan vaunupulan kasvavan ainakin vuoteen 2010 saakka. Jos rautateiden suosio rahtikuljetusmuotona kasvaa, niin voimistuva vaunukysyntä jatkuu huomattavan paljon pidemmän aikaa. Euroopan ja Venäjän vaunukannan tilanne näkyy myös sitä palvelevan konepajateollisuuden ongelmina - yleisesti ottaen alan eurooppalaiset yritykset ovat heikosti kannattavia ja niiden liikevaihto ei juuri kasva, venäläiset ja ukrainalaiset yritykset ovat olleet samassa tilanteessa, joskin aivan viime vuosina tilanne on osassa kääntynyt paremmaksi. Kun näiden maanosien yritysten liikevaihtoa, voittoa ja omistaja-arvoa verrataan yhdysvaltalaisiin kilpailijoihin, huomataan että jälkimmäisten suoriutuminen on huomattavan paljon parempaa, ja näillä yrityksillä on myös kyky maksaa osinkoja omistajilleen. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli kehittää uuden tyyppinen kuljetusvaunu Suomen, Venäjän sekä mahdollisesti myös Kiinan väliseen liikenteeseen. Vaunutyypin tarkoituksena olisi kyetä toimimaan monikäyttöisenä, niin raaka-aineiden kuin konttienkin kuljetuksessa, tasapainottaen kuljetusmuotojen aiheuttamaa kuljetuspaino-ongelmaa. Kehitystyön pohjana käytimme yli 1000 venäläisen vaunutyypin tietokantaa, josta valitsimme Data Envelopment Analysis -menetelmällä soveliaimmat vaunut kontinkuljetukseen (lähemmin tarkastelimme n. 40 vaunutyyppiä), jättäen mahdollisimman vähän tyhjää tilaa junaan, mutta silti kyeten kantamaan valitun konttilastin. Kun kantokykyongelmia venäläisissä vaunuissa ei useinkaan ole, on vertailu tehtävissä tavarajunan pituuden ja kokonaispainon perusteella. Simuloituamme yhdistettyihin kuljetuksiin soveliasta vaunutyyppiä käytännössä löytyvässä kuljetusverkostossa (esim. raakapuuta Suomeen tai Kiinaan ja kontteja takaisin Venäjän suuntaan), huomasimme lyhemmän vaunupituuden sisältävän kustannusetua, erityisesti raakaainekuljetuksissa, mutta myös rajanylityspaikkojen mahdollisesti vähentyessä. Lyhempi vaunutyyppi on myös joustavampi erilaisten konttipituuksien suhteen (40 jalan kontin käyttö on yleistynyt viime vuosina). Työn lopuksi ehdotamme uuden vaunutyypin tuotantotavaksi verkostomaista lähestymistapaa, jossa osa vaunusta tehtäisiin Suomessa ja osa Venäjällä ja/tai Ukrainassa. Vaunutyypin tulisi olla rekisteröity Venäjälle, sillä silloin sitä voi käyttää Suomen ja Venäjän, kuten myös soveltuvin osin Venäjän ja Kiinan välisessä liikenteessä.

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In the last two decades of studying the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) phenomenon, intensive emphasis has been put on how and when and where these SEPs are injected into interplanetary space. It is well known that SEPs are related to solar flares and CMEs. However, the role of each in the acceleration of SEPs has been under debate since the major role was taken from flares ascribed to CMEs step by step after the skylab mission, which started the era of CME spaceborn observations. Since then, the shock wave generated by powerful CMEs in between 2-5 solar radii is considered the major accelerator. The current paradigm interprets the prolonged proton intensity-time profile in gradual SEP events as a direct effect of accelerated SEPs by shock wave propagating in the interplanetary medium. Thus the powerful CME is thought of as a starter for the acceleration and its shock wave as a continuing accelerator to result in such an intensity-time profile. Generally it is believed that a single powerful CME which might or might not be associated with a flare is always the reason behind such gradual events.

In this work we use the Energetic and Relativistic Nucleus and Electrons ERNE instrument on board Solar and Heliospheric Observatory SOHO to present an empirical study to show the possibility of multiple accelerations in SEP events. In the beginning we found 18 double-peaked SEP events by examining 88 SEP events. The peaks in the intensity-time profile were separated by 3-24 hours. We divided the SEP events according to possible multiple acceleration into four groups and in one of these groups we find evidence for multiple acceleration in velocity dispersion and change in the abundance ratio associated at transition to the second peak. Then we explored the intensity-time profiles of all SEP events during solar cycle 23 and found that most of the SEP events are associated with multiple eruptions at the Sun and we call those events as Multi-Eruption Solar Energetic Particles (MESEP) events. We use the data available by Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronograph LASCO on board SOHO to determine the CME associated with such events and YOHKOH and GOES satellites data to determine the flare associated with such events. We found four types of MESEP according to the appearance of the peaks in the intensity-time profile in large variation of energy levels. We found that it is not possible to determine whether the peaks are related to an eruption at the Sun or not, only by examining the anisotropy flux, He/p ratio and velocity dispersion. Then we chose a rare event in which there is evidence of SEP acceleration from behind previous CME. This work resulted in a conclusion which is inconsistent with the current SEP paradigm. Then we discovered through examining another MESEP event, that energetic particles accelerated by a second CME can penetrate a previous CME-driven decelerating shock. Finally, we report the previous two MESEP events with new two events and find a common basis for second CME SEPs penetrating previous decelerating shocks. This phenomenon is reported for the first time and expected to have significant impact on modification of the current paradigm of the solar energetic particle events.

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Esophageal tuberculosis is an extremely rare event, accounting for 0.2 percent of these cases affecting the esophagus. Most of them are secondary to pulmonary disease. The authors present a case of primary esophageal tuberculosis in a 40 years old HIV-positive female.

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Late renal cell carcinoma recurrence in the renal fossa is a rare event. This condition occurs in 1 to 2% of radical nephrectomies. We reported a late recurrence at the renal fossa about four and half years after radical nephrectomy due to a renal cell carcinoma (RCC) without metastasis elsewhere. Diagnosis in an outpatient follow-up was made during an abdominal computed tomography and we observed a retroperitoneal mass in the renal fossa. The excision at the recurrence area was made through a subcostal transversal incision without any difficulty. After 6 months from this second procedure, there was no evidence of recurrence. The surgical aggressive treatment for late retroperitoneal RCC recurrence is a good method in this rare situation. Abdominal computed tomography must be done during long periods of follow-up for patients with radical nephrectomy for RCC to search for late retroperitoneal recurrences.

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Resilience is the property of a system to remain trustworthy despite changes. Changes of a different nature, whether due to failures of system components or varying operational conditions, significantly increase the complexity of system development. Therefore, advanced development technologies are required to build robust and flexible system architectures capable of adapting to such changes. Moreover, powerful quantitative techniques are needed to assess the impact of these changes on various system characteristics. Architectural flexibility is achieved by embedding into the system design the mechanisms for identifying changes and reacting on them. Hence a resilient system should have both advanced monitoring and error detection capabilities to recognise changes as well as sophisticated reconfiguration mechanisms to adapt to them. The aim of such reconfiguration is to ensure that the system stays operational, i.e., remains capable of achieving its goals. Design, verification and assessment of the system reconfiguration mechanisms is a challenging and error prone engineering task. In this thesis, we propose and validate a formal framework for development and assessment of resilient systems. Such a framework provides us with the means to specify and verify complex component interactions, model their cooperative behaviour in achieving system goals, and analyse the chosen reconfiguration strategies. Due to the variety of properties to be analysed, such a framework should have an integrated nature. To ensure the system functional correctness, it should rely on formal modelling and verification, while, to assess the impact of changes on such properties as performance and reliability, it should be combined with quantitative analysis. To ensure scalability of the proposed framework, we choose Event-B as the basis for reasoning about functional correctness. Event-B is a statebased formal approach that promotes the correct-by-construction development paradigm and formal verification by theorem proving. Event-B has a mature industrial-strength tool support { the Rodin platform. Proof-based verification as well as the reliance on abstraction and decomposition adopted in Event-B provides the designers with a powerful support for the development of complex systems. Moreover, the top-down system development by refinement allows the developers to explicitly express and verify critical system-level properties. Besides ensuring functional correctness, to achieve resilience we also need to analyse a number of non-functional characteristics, such as reliability and performance. Therefore, in this thesis we also demonstrate how formal development in Event-B can be combined with quantitative analysis. Namely, we experiment with integration of such techniques as probabilistic model checking in PRISM and discrete-event simulation in SimPy with formal development in Event-B. Such an integration allows us to assess how changes and di erent recon guration strategies a ect the overall system resilience. The approach proposed in this thesis is validated by a number of case studies from such areas as robotics, space, healthcare and cloud domain.

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Nous étudions la gestion de centres d'appels multi-compétences, ayant plusieurs types d'appels et groupes d'agents. Un centre d'appels est un système de files d'attente très complexe, où il faut généralement utiliser un simulateur pour évaluer ses performances. Tout d'abord, nous développons un simulateur de centres d'appels basé sur la simulation d'une chaîne de Markov en temps continu (CMTC), qui est plus rapide que la simulation conventionnelle par événements discrets. À l'aide d'une méthode d'uniformisation de la CMTC, le simulateur simule la chaîne de Markov en temps discret imbriquée de la CMTC. Nous proposons des stratégies pour utiliser efficacement ce simulateur dans l'optimisation de l'affectation des agents. En particulier, nous étudions l'utilisation des variables aléatoires communes. Deuxièmement, nous optimisons les horaires des agents sur plusieurs périodes en proposant un algorithme basé sur des coupes de sous-gradients et la simulation. Ce problème est généralement trop grand pour être optimisé par la programmation en nombres entiers. Alors, nous relaxons l'intégralité des variables et nous proposons des méthodes pour arrondir les solutions. Nous présentons une recherche locale pour améliorer la solution finale. Ensuite, nous étudions l'optimisation du routage des appels aux agents. Nous proposons une nouvelle politique de routage basé sur des poids, les temps d'attente des appels, et les temps d'inoccupation des agents ou le nombre d'agents libres. Nous développons un algorithme génétique modifié pour optimiser les paramètres de routage. Au lieu d'effectuer des mutations ou des croisements, cet algorithme optimise les paramètres des lois de probabilité qui génèrent la population de solutions. Par la suite, nous développons un algorithme d'affectation des agents basé sur l'agrégation, la théorie des files d'attente et la probabilité de délai. Cet algorithme heuristique est rapide, car il n'emploie pas la simulation. La contrainte sur le niveau de service est convertie en une contrainte sur la probabilité de délai. Par après, nous proposons une variante d'un modèle de CMTC basé sur le temps d'attente du client à la tête de la file. Et finalement, nous présentons une extension d'un algorithme de coupe pour l'optimisation stochastique avec recours de l'affectation des agents dans un centre d'appels multi-compétences.