Distributed belief revision as applied within a descriptive model of jury deliberations

Belief revision is a well-research topic within AI. We argue that the new model of distributed belief revision as discussed here is suitable for general modelling of judicial decision making, along with extant approach as known from jury research. The new approach to belief revision is of general interest, whenever attitudes to information are to be simulated within a multi-agent environment with agents holding local beliefs yet by interaction with, and influencing, other agents who are deliberating collectively. In the approach proposed, it's the entire group of agents, not an external supervisor, who integrate the different opinions. This is achieved through an election mechanism, The principle of "priority to the incoming information" as known from AI models of belief revision are problematic, when applied to factfinding by a jury. The present approach incorporates a computable model for local belief revision, such that a principle of recoverability is adopted. By this principle, any previously held belief must belong to the current cognitive state if consistent with it. For the purposes of jury simulation such a model calls for refinement. Yet we claim, it constitutes a valid basis for an open system where other AI functionalities (or outer stiumuli) could attempt to handle other aspects of the deliberation which are more specifi to legal narrative, to argumentation in court, and then to the debate among the jurors.

Belief revision as applied within a descriptive model of jury deliberations

Belief revision is a well-researched topic within Artificial Intelligence (AI). We argue that the new model of belief revision as discussed here is suitable for general modelling of judicial decision making, along with the extant approach as known from jury research. The new approach to belief revision is of general interest, whenever attitudes to information are to be simulated within a multi-agent environment with agents holding local beliefs yet by interacting with, and influencing, other agents who are deliberating collectively. The principle of 'priority to the incoming information', as known from AI models of belief revision, is problematic when applied to factfinding by a jury. The present approach incorporates a computable model for local belief revision, such that a principle of recoverability is adopted. By this principle, any previously held belief must belong to the current cognitive state if consistent with it. For the purposes of jury simulation such a model calls for refinement. Yet, we claim, it constitutes a valid basis for an open system where other AI functionalities (or outer stimuli) could attempt to handle other aspects of the deliberation which are more specific to legal narratives, to argumentation in court, and then to the debate among the jurors.

Statistical-mechanical description of classical test-particle dynamics in the presence of an external force field: modelling noise and damping from first principles

Aiming to establish a rigorous link between macroscopic random motion (described e.g. by Langevin-type theories) and microscopic dynamics, we have undertaken a kinetic-theoretical study of the dynamics of a classical test-particle weakly coupled to a large heat-bath in thermal equilibrium. Both subsystems are subject to an external force field. From the (time-non-local) generalized master equation a Fokker-Planck-type equation follows as a "quasi-Markovian" approximation. The kinetic operator thus defined is shown to be ill-defined; in specific, it does not preserve the positivity of the test-particle distribution function f(x, v; t). Adopting an alternative approach, previously introduced for quantum open systems, is proposed to lead to a correct kinetic operator, which yields all the expected properties. A set of explicit expressions for the diffusion and drift coefficients are obtained, allowing for modelling macroscopic diffusion and dynamical friction phenomena, in terms of an external field and intrinsic physical parameters.

Non-Markovian qubit dynamics induced by Coulomb crystals

We investigate the backflow of information in a system with a second-order structural phase transition, namely, a quasi-one-dimensional Coulomb crystal. Using standard Ramsey interferometry which couples a target ion (the system) to the rest of the chain (a phononic environment), we study the non-Markovian character of the resulting open system dynamics. We study two different time scales and show that the backflow of information pinpoints both the phase transition and different dynamical features of the chain as it approaches criticality. We also establish an exact link between the backflow of information and the Ramsey fringe visibility.

A geochronologic framework for the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site, Snowmass Village, Colorado

The Ziegler Reservoir fossil site near Snowmass Village, Colorado, provides a unique opportunity to reconstruct high-altitude paleoenvironmental conditions in the Rocky Mountains during the last interglacial period. We used four different techniques to establish a chronological framework for the site. Radiocarbon dating of lake organics, bone collagen, and shell carbonate, and in situ cosmogenic Be and Al ages on a boulder on the crest of a moraine that impounded the lake suggest that the ages of the sediments that hosted the fossils are between ~ 140 ka and > 45 ka. Uranium-series ages of vertebrate remains generally fall within these bounds, but extremely low uranium concentrations and evidence of open-system behavior limit their utility. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages (n = 18) obtained from fine-grained quartz maintain stratigraphic order, were replicable, and provide reliable ages for the lake sediments. Analysis of the equivalent dose (D) dispersion of the OSL samples showed that the sediments were fully bleached prior to deposition and low scatter suggests that eolian processes were likely the dominant transport mechanism for fine-grained sediments into the lake. The resulting ages show that the fossil-bearing sediments span the latest part of marine isotope stage (MIS) 6, all of MIS 5 and MIS 4, and the earliest part of MIS 3.

Modeling of in-situ crystallization processes in the Permian mafic layered intrusion of Mont Collon (Dent Blanche nappe, western Alps)

The Mont Collon mafic complex is one of the best preserved examples of the Early Permian magmatism in the Central Alps, related to the intra-continental collapse of the Variscan belt. It mostly consists (> 95 vol.%) of ol+hy-nonnative plagioclase-wehrlites, olivine- and cpx-gabbros with cumulitic structures, crosscut by acid dikes. Pegmatitic gabbros, troctolites and anorthosites outcrop locally. A well-preserved cumulative, sequence is exposed in the Dents de Bertol area (center of intrusion). PT-calculations indicate that this layered magma chamber emplaced at mid-crustal levels at about 0.5 GPa and 1100 degrees C. The Mont Collon cumulitic rocks record little magmatic differentiation, as illustrated by the restricted range of clinopyroxene mg-number (Mg#(cpx)=83-89). Whole-rock incompatible trace-element contents (e.g. Nb, Zr, Ba) vary largely and without correlation with major-element composition. These features are characteristic of an in-situ crystallization process with variable amounts of interstitial liquid L trapped between the cumulus mineral phases. LA-ICPMS measurements show that trace-element distribution in the latter is homogeneous, pointing to subsolidus re-equilibration between crystals and interstitial melts. A quantitative modeling based on Langmuir's in-situ crystallization equation successfully duplicated the REE concentrations in cumulitic minerals of all rock facies of the intrusion. The calculated amounts of interstitial liquid L vary between 0 and 35% for degrees of differentiation F of 0 to 20%, relative to the least evolved facies of the intrusion. L values are well correlated with the modal proportions of interstitial amphibole and whole-rock incompatible trace-element concentrations (e.g. Zr, Nb) of the tested samples. However, the in-situ crystallization model reaches its limitations with rock containing high modal content of REE-bearing minerals (i.e. zircon), such as pegmatitic gabbros. Dikes of anorthositic composition, locally crosscutting the layered lithologies, evidence that the Mont Collon rocks evolved in open system with mixing of intercumulus liquids of different origins and possibly contrasting compositions. The proposed model is not able to resolve these complex open systems, but migrating liquids could be partly responsible for the observed dispersion of points in some correlation diagrams. Absence of significant differentiation with recurrent lithologies in the cumulitic pile of Dents de Bertol points to an efficiently convective magma chamber, with possible periodic replenishment, (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A speculative systems model of the dynamic interaction among students, faculty and administration in the community college, with particular reference to intrinsic motivation and the teacher-administrator interface

The challenge the community college faces in helping meet the needs of the living open system of society is examined in this study. It is postulated that internalization student outcomes are required by society to reduce entropy and remain self-renewing. Such behavior is characterized as having an intrinsically motivated energy source and displays the seeking and conquering of challenge, the development of reflective knowledge and skill, full use of all capabilities, internal control, growth orientation, high self-esteem, relativistic thinking and competence. The development of a conceptual systems model that suggests how transactions among students, faculty and administration might occur to best meet the needs of internalization outcomes in students, and intrinsic motivation in faculty is a major purpose of this study. It is a speculative model that is based on a synthesis of a wide variety of variables. Empirical evidence, theoretical considerations, and speculative ideas are gathered together from researchers and theoretici.ans who are working on separate answers to questions of intrinsic motivation, internal control and environments that encourage their development. The model considers the effect administrators·have on faculty anq the corresponding effect faculty may have on students. The major concentration is on the administrator--teacher interface.For administrators the model may serve as a guide in planning effective transactions, and establishing system goals. The teacher is offered a means to coordinate actions toward a specific overall objective, and the administrator, teacher and researcher are invited to use the model to experiment, innovate, verify the assumptions on which the model is based, and raise additional hypotheses. Goals and history of the community colleges in Ontario are examined against current problems, previous progress and open system thinking. The nature of the person as a five part system is explored with emphasis on intrinsic motivation. The nature, operation, conceptualization, and value of this internal energy source is reviewed in detail. The current state of society, education and management theory are considered and the value of intrinsically motivating teaching tasks together with "system four" leadership style are featured. Evidence is reviewed that suggests intrinsically motivated faculty are needed, and "system four" leadership style is the kind of interaction-influence system needed to nurture intrinsic motivation in faculty.

Relation of temperament and authoritative parenting on subtypes of adolescent behaviour

Over the years, researchers have investigated direct, conditional, and meditational pathways of adolescent aggression in relation to both temperament and parenting behaviours. However, no study to date has considered these relations with respect to a measure of aggression differentiated by form (e.g., overt, relational) and function (e.g., proactive, reactive). The present study examined the differential association of adolescent temperament and authoritative parenting on four subtypes of aggression. Participants included mothers, fathers, and one adolescent (between the ages of 10-19) from 663 families, recruited through random digit dialing. Parents reported on their child's temperament and occurrence of aggressive behaviours in addition to the perception of their own authoritative parenting. Adolescents reported on their own temperament and aggressive behaviours as well as on both their mother and father's authoritative parenting. Multiple regression analyses confirmed predictions that some aspects of temperament and authoritative parenting provide motivation towards the engagement of different aggressive behaviours. For example, higher negative affect was related to reactive types of aggression, whereas a strong desire for novel or risky behaviours related to proactive aggression. However, differences in effortful control altered the trajectory for both relationships. Higher levels of self-regulation reduced the impact of negative affect on reactive-overt aggression. Greater self-regulation also reduced the impact of surgency on proactive-overt aggression when age was a factor. Structural equation modeling was then used to assess the process through which adolescents become more or less susceptible to impulsive behaviours. Although the issue ofbi-directionality cannot be ruled out, temperament characteristics were the proximal correlate for aggression subtypes as opposed to authoritative parenting dimensions. Effortful control was found to partially mediate the relation between parental acceptancelinvolvement and reactive-relational and reactive-overt aggression, suggesting that higher levels of warmth and support as perceived by the child related to increased levels of self-regulation and emotional control, which in tum lead to less reactive-relational and less reactive-overt types of aggression in adolescents. On the other hand, negative affect partially mediated the relation between parental psychological autonomy granting and these two subtypes of aggression, supporting predictions that higher levels of autonomy granting (perceived independence) related to lower levels of frustration, which in tum lead to less reactive-relational and reactive-overt aggression in adolescents. Both findings provide less evidence for the evocative person-environment correlation and more support for temperament being an open system shaped by experience and authoritative parenting dimensions. As one of the first known studies examining the differential association of authoritative parenting and temperament on aggression subtypes, this study demonstrates the role parents can play in shaping and altering their children's temperament and the effects it can have on aggressive behaviour.

Changements et évolution des universités conventionnelles sous l’influence des technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC): le cas du contexte universitaire nord-américain

Cette recherche part du constat de l’utilisation des nouvelles technologies qui se généralise dans l’enseignement universitaire (tant sur campus qu’en enseignement à distance), et traite cette question sous trois aspects institutionnel, pédagogique et technologique. La recherche a été menée à travers quinze universités canadiennes où nous avons interrogé vingt-quatre universitaires, nommément des responsables de centres de pédagogie universitaire et des experts sur la question de l’intégration des technologies à l’enseignement universitaire. Pour le volet institutionnel, nous avons eu recours à un cadre théorique qui met en relief le changement de structure et de fonctionnement des universités à l’ère d’Internet, suivant le modèle théorique de l’Open System Communications Net de Kershaw et Safford (1998, 2001). Les résultats, à l’aune de ce modèle, confirment que les universités conventionnelles sont dans une phase de transformation due à l’utilisation des technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC). De plus, les cours hybrides, la bimodalité, des universités entièrement à distance visant une clientèle estudiantine au-delà des frontières régionales et nationales, des universités associant plusieurs modèles, des universités fonctionnant à base d’intelligence artificielle, sont les modèles principaux qui ont la forte possibilité de s’imposer dans le paysage universitaire nord-américain au cours des prochaines décennies. Enfin, à la lumière du modèle théorique, nous avons exploré le rôle de l’université, ainsi en transformation, au sein de la société tout comme les rapports éventuels entre les institutions universitaires. S’agissant de l’aspect pédagogique, nous avons utilisé une perspective théorique fondée sur le modèle du Community of Inquiry (CoI) de Garrison, Anderson et Archer (2000), revu par Vaughan et Garrison (2005) et Garrison et Arbaugh (2007) qui prône notamment une nouvelle culture de travail à l’université fondée sur trois niveaux de présence. Les résultats indiquent l’importance d’éléments relatifs à la présence d’enseignement, à la présence cognitive et à la présence sociale, comme le suggère le modèle. Cependant, la récurrence -dans les trois niveaux de présence- de certains indicateurs, suggérés par les répondants, tels que l’échange d’information, la discussion et la collaboration, nous ont amenés à conclure à la non-étanchéité du modèle du CoI. De plus, certaines catégories, de par leur fréquence d’apparition dans les propos des interviewés, mériteraient d’avoir une considération plus grande dans les exigences pédagogiques que requiert le nouveau contexte prévalant dans les universités conventionnelles. C’est le cas par exemple de la catégorie « cohésion de groupe ». Enfin, dans le troisième volet de la recherche relatif à la dimension technologique, nous nous sommes inspirés du modèle théorique d’Olapiriyakul et Scher (2006) qui postule que l’infrastructure dans l’enseignement doit être à la fois une technologie pédagogique et une technologie d’apprentissage pour les étudiants (instructional technology and student learning technology). Partant de cette approche, le volet technologique de notre recherche a consisté à identifier les fonctionnalités exigées de la technologie pour induire une évolution institutionnelle et pédagogique. Les résultats à cet égard ont indiqué que les raisons pour lesquelles les universités choisissent d’intégrer les TIC à l’enseignement ne sont pas toujours d’ordre pédagogique, ce qui explique que la technologie elle-même ne revête pas forcément les qualités a priori requises pour une évolution pédagogique et institutionnelle. De ce constat, les technologies appropriées pour une réelle évolution pédagogique et institutionnelle des universités ont été identifiées.

Biostatistical evaluation and Management of sciaenid fishery with particular reference to Otolithes ruber (Schneider, 1801) andJohnieops sina (Cuvier, 1830) of Konkan coast

Fish, a natural resource, has received great attention from all over the world. since it provides a cheap protein, employment and income to the millions of people for centuries. So fishermen, industrialist and multinationals are trying to exploit the marine resources to their maximum benefit by using modern craft, advance fishing equipments and efficient gear. Fishery resources in the open system particularly in oceans, were considered to be unlimited. However, recent developments in the innovation of efficient craft and gear using well tested material fitted with modern equipments that have greatly enhanced the mobility of craft, agility of gear and the ability of equipments to locate fishery resources have proved otherwise. Hence as the exploitation increases with more effort entering the fishery, the catch per unit of fishing effort starts to decline due to the limitness of the resources. The heavy fishing pressure in the recent past led to commercial extinction of a number of stocks such as. the North Sea herring, California sardine, Japanese Sardine and Peruvian anchovy (FAO. 1968: Gulland, 1974). In India, seer fish from Palk-Bay declined due to uncontrolled fishing (Devaraj 1983).

Pensar para ejecutar : ¿cómo el pensamiento estratégico guía la logística?

Para el presente trabajo realizado en la Universidad del Rosario en el segundo semestre del 2009, buscamos realizar un acercamiento teórico – práctico partiendo de una de m las múltiples explicaciones que sobre pensamiento estratégico existen, con el soporte de la complejidad e incertidumbre, para realizar una aproximación sobre el papel fundamental de la estrategia en la cadena de abastecimiento. Para esto abordaremos el tema de cadena de valor y los sistemas tanto abiertos como cerrados e iremos delimitando los temas hasta llegar a la explicación de la importancia de la estrategia en la cadena de suministro. Para la demostración nos remitiremos a la modelación de una cadena de abastecimiento con la herramienta SCOR, la cual será de gran ayuda para entender la complejidad de la misma y la manera para obtener mejores resultados tanto a nivel productivo, como en participación del mercado. También, pasaremos por temas de planeación que son la esencia del modelo, como tal, y pieza importante para la consecución de la estrategia. Para terminar, concluiremos hablando acerca de la importancia de conseguir estrategias en la cadena de abastecimiento, la importancia de conocer el entorno y cómo este afecta o influye en las organizaciones, comprender el constante cambio de los mercados y la necesidad de ver-comprender las organizaciones como sistemas vivos.

Vida y muerte empresarial : estudios empíricos de perdurabilidad : subproyecto : empresas saludables. Caso Arturo Calle

Las empresas son parte fundamental de esta sociedad, pues estas son las que brindan los diferentes recursos para que la humanidad viva. Éstas son creadas por personas para las personas, es decir, las personas son quienes tienen que estar informadas de todo cambio tanto interno como externo que influyen de diversas maneras en la organización, tener una excelente comunicación entre los diferentes eslabones organizacionales, para así lograr perdurar en el tiempo. De acuerdo con Scott (2003), las empresas forman parte de un sistema abierto, que recibe inputs del entorno y tiene la capacidad de aprovecharlos y transformarlos para prolongar su existencia . Obtener un clima organizacional es fundamental en las organizaciones, pues es allí donde se ve el rendimiento del personal, según su satisfacción al realizar la labor que tengan dentro de la empresa. En este aspecto entran diferentes factores fundamentales los cuales ayudan a perdurar, uno de ellos es la toma de decisiones, que deben ser en un ambiente de comunicación recíproco, estableciendo una visión que le permita a la empresa mantenerse en el tiempo. Como ejemplo de esto, se pretende dar a conocer la importancia que ha tenido Arturo Calle en el mercado nacional

Reflexiones en torno al concepto de vida

Esto texto examina cuatro conceptos de vida que se consideran notables en el siglo XX, los contrasta y propone algunos aspectos que pueden enriquecer el concepto.

The solubility of gypsum in calcareous soils

Three gypsiferous-calcareous soils from the Al-Hassa Oasis in Saudi Arabia were examined to determine the conditions under which dissolution of gypsum could be hindered by the formation of coatings of calcite during leaching. Batch extraction with water of a sandy clay loam, a sandy clay and a sandy loam containing 40, 26 and 5% gypsum and 14, 12 and 13% calcite respectively was followed by chemical analysis of the extracts, SEM examination and XRD and EDX microprobe analysis. Extraction in closed centrifuge tubes for I h or 5 h showed that initially gypsum dissolved to give solutions near to equilibrium but then in the sandy clay loam, between one quarter and one third of the gypsum could not dissolve. In the sandy clay about one fifth of the gypsum could not dissolve with none remaining in the sandy loam. All the extracts were close to equilibrium with calcite. SEM and EDX examination showed that coatings of calcite had formed on the gypsum particles. The sandy clay loam was also extracted using an open system in which either air or air +1% CO2 was bubbled through the suspensions for 1 h with stirring. The gypsum dissolved more rapidly and all of the gypsum dissolved. Thus, where the rate of dissolution of gypsum was rapid, calcite did not manage to cover the gypsum surfaces probably because the surface was being continuously removed. Slower leaching conditions in the field are likely to be conducive to the formation of coatings and less dissolution of gypsum. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tendering: optimization and rationality

There have been various techniques published for optimizing the net present value of tenders by use of discounted cash flow theory and linear programming. These approaches to tendering appear to have been largely ignored by the industry. This paper utilises six case studies of tendering practice in order to establish the reasons for this apparent disregard. Tendering is demonstrated to be a market orientated function with many subjective judgements being made regarding a firm's environment. Detailed consideration of 'internal' factors such as cash flow are therefore judged to be unjustified. Systems theory is then drawn upon and applied to the separate processes of estimating and tendering. Estimating is seen as taking place in a relatively sheltered environment and as such operates as a relatively closed system. Tendering, however, takes place in a changing and dynamic environment and as such must operate as a relatively open system. The use of sophisticated methods to optimize the value of tenders is then identified as being dependent upon the assumption of rationality, which is justified in the case of a relatively closed system (i.e. estimating), but not for a relatively open system (i.e. tendering).