An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Proposed modifications to metabolic model for glycogen-accumulating organisms under anaerobic conditions

Filipe et al. (2001) proposed an anaerobic metabolic model for glycogen-accumulating organisms (GAO) in which the succinate-propionate pathway was used to describe the production of propionyl-CoA. However, propionyl-CoA is only an intermediate product in the above pathway. Stopping at propionyl-CoA instead of propionate (the end product of the pathway) results in the consumption of one ATP from succinate to succinyl-CoA, which was not accounted for in the model of Filipe et al. (2001). This resulted in significant errors in the stoichiometric coefficients in the final metabolic model. A modified model is presented in this communication and is shown to fit the experimental data significantly better than the original model. (C) 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

R-matrices and the tensor product graph method

A systematic method for constructing trigonometric R-matrices corresponding to the (multiplicity-free) tensor product of any two affinizable representations of a quantum algebra or superalgebra has been developed by the Brisbane group and its collaborators. This method has been referred to as the Tensor Product Graph Method. Here we describe applications of this method to untwisted and twisted quantum affine superalgebras.

New product warranty: A literature review

Warranty is an important element of marketing new products as better warranty signals higher product quality and provides greater assurance to customers. Servicing warranty involves additional costs to the manufacturer and this cost depends on product reliability and warranty terms. Product reliability is influenced by the decisions made during the design and manufacturing of the product. As such warranty is very important in the context of new products. Product warranty has received the attention of researchers from many different disciplines and the literature on warranties is vast. This paper carries out a review of the literature that has appeared in the last ten years. It highlights issues of interest to manufacturers in the context of managing new products from an overall business perspective. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Cisplatin-induced ototoxicity and pharmacokinetics: Preliminary findings in a dog model

The early effects of clinical dose of cisplatin (100 mg/m(2)) on distort ion-product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAE) thresholds and the relationship between DPOAE threshold shifts and changes in plasma concentrations of filterable and total platinum (Pt) following infusion of cisplatin in a dog model were investigated. The DPOAE thresholds (based on input-output function) were measured 2 days before a single high dose of cisplatin administration, and compared with measurements recorded 2 and 4 days after infusion. The results revealed DPOAE thresholds to be elevated by 4 days after the administration of cisplatin. However, this elevation could not be correlated with plasma concentrations of filterable and total Pt, which showed little variation over the 48-hour postinfusion period between animals. The present study demonstrated that DPOAE thresholds have the potential to be used as an indicator of cisplatin-induced ototoxicity, and cisplatin-induced ototoxicity could not be explained by plasma Pt kinetics in individual animals.

An energy-based model for swing hammer mills

An energy-based swing hammer mill model has been developed for coke oven feed preparation. it comprises a mechanistic power model to determine the dynamic internal recirculation and a perfect mixing mill model with a dual-classification function to mimic the operations of crusher and screen. The model parameters were calibrated using a pilot-scale swing hammer mill at various operating conditions. The effects of the underscreen configurations and the feed sizes on hammer mill operations were demonstrated through the fitted model parameters. Relationships between the model parameters and the machine configurations were established. The model was validated using the independent experimental data of single lithotype coal tests with the same BJD pilot-scale hammer mill and full operation audit data of an industrial hammer mill. The outcome of the energy-based swing hammer mill model is the capability to simulate the impact of changing blends of coal or mill configurations and operating conditions on product size distribution. Alternatively, the model can be used to select the machine settings required to achieve a desired product. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Warranty and optimal reliability improvement through product development

For products sold with warranty, the warranty servicing cost can be reduced by improving product reliability through a development process. However, this increases the unit manufacturing cost. Optimal development must achieve a trade-off between these two costs. The outcome of the development process is uncertain and needs to be taken into account in the determination of the optimal development effort. The paper develops a model where this uncertainty is taken into account. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating environmental and economic life cycle analysis in product development: a material selection case study

Purpose Achieving sustainability by rethinking products, services and strategies is an enormous challenge currently laid upon the economic sector, in which materials selection plays a critical role. In this context, the present work describes an environmental and economic life cycle analysis of a structural product, comparing two possible material alternatives. The product chosen is a storage tank, presently manufactured in stainless steel (SST) or in a glass fibre reinforced polymer composite (CST). The overall goal of the study is to identify environmental and economic strong and weak points related to the life cycle of the two material alternatives. The consequential win-win or trade-off situations will be identified via a Life Cycle Assessment/Life Cycle Costing (LCA/LCC) integrated model. Methods The LCA/LCC integrated model used consists in applying the LCA methodology to the product system, incorporating, in parallel, its results into the LCC study, namely those of the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA). Results In both the SST and CST systems the most significant life cycle phase is the raw materials production, in which the most significant environmental burdens correspond to the Fossil fuels and Respiratory inorganics categories. The LCA/LCC integrated analysis shows that the CST has globally a preferable environmental and economic profile, as its impacts are lower than those of the SST in all life cycle stages. Both the internal and external costs are lower, the former resulting mainly from the composite material being significantly less expensive than stainless steel. This therefore represents a full win-win situation. As a consequence, the study clearly indicates that using a thermoset composite material to manufacture storage tanks is environmentally and economically desirable. However, it was also evident that the environmental performance of the CST could be improved by altering its End-of-Life stage. Conclusions The results of the present work provide enlightening insights into the synergies between the environmental and the economic performance of a structural product made with alternative materials. Further, they provide conclusive evidence to support the integration of environmental and economic life cycle analysis in the product development processes of a manufacturing company, or in some cases even in its procurement practices.

MDAI: Model based Design in Automobile Industry

It is proposed a new approach based on a methodology, assisted by a tool, to create new products in the automobile industry based on previous defined processes and experiences inspired on a set of best practices or principles: it is based on high-level models or specifications; it is component-based architecture centric; it is based on generative programming techniques. This approach follows in essence the MDA (Model Driven Architecture) philosophy with some specific characteristics. We propose a repository that keeps related information, such as models, applications, design information, generated artifacts and even information concerning the development process itself (e.g., generation steps, tests and integration milestones). Generically, this methodology receives the users' requirements to a new product (e.g., functional, non-functional, product specification) as its main inputs and produces a set of artifacts (e.g., design parts, process validation output) as its main output, that will be integrated in the engineer design tool (e.g. CAD system) facilitating the work.

Conceptual model for decomposing the value for the customer

Value has been defined in different theoretical contexts as need, desire, interest, standard /criteria, beliefs, attitudes, and preferences. The creation of value is key to any business, and any business activity is about exchanging some tangible and/or intangible good or service and having its value accepted and rewarded by customers or clients, either inside the enterprise or collaborative network or outside. “Perhaps surprising then is that firms often do not know how to define value, or how to measure it” (Anderson and Narus, 1998 cited by [1]). Woodruff echoed that we need “richer customer value theory” for providing an “important tool for locking onto the critical things that managers need to know”. In addition, he emphasized, “we need customer value theory that delves deeply into customer’s world of product use in their situations” [2]. In this sense, we proposed and validated a novel “Conceptual Model for Decomposing the Value for the Customer”. To this end, we were aware that time has a direct impact on customer perceived value, and the suppliers’ and customers’ perceptions change from the pre-purchase to the post-purchase phases, causing some uncertainty and doubts.We wanted to break down value into all its components, as well as every built and used assets (both endogenous and/or exogenous perspectives). This component analysis was then transposed into a mathematical formulation using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), so that the uncertainty and vagueness of value perceptions could be embedded in this model that relates used and built assets in the tangible and intangible deliverable exchange among the involved parties, with their actual value perceptions.

Traceability support in software product lines

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática.

Bertrand model under incomplete information

We consider a Bertrand duopoly model with unknown costs. The firms' aim is to choose the price of its product according to the well-known concept of Bayesian Nash equilibrium. The chooses are made simultaneously by both firms. In this paper, we suppose that each firm has two different technologies, and uses one of them according to a certain probability distribution. The use of either one or the other technology affects the unitary production cost. We show that this game has exactly one Bayesian Nash equilibrium. We analyse the advantages, for firms and for consumers, of using the technology with highest production cost versus the one with cheapest production cost. We prove that the expected profit of each firm increases with the variance of its production costs. We also show that the expected price of each good increases with both expected production costs, being the effect of the expected production costs of the rival dominated by the effect of the own expected production costs.

Risk management of new product development process

Dissertation submitted to Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia of Universidade Nova de Lisboa for the achievement of Integrated Master´s degree in Industrial Management Engineering

Model morphisms (MoMo) to enable language independent information models and interoperable business networks

MSc. Dissertation presented at Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia of Universidade Nova de Lisboa to obtain the Master degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering

Descending pain modulation in a Kaolin-induced hydrocephalus rat model

Pain transmission at the spinal cord is modulated by descending actions that arise from supraspinal areas which collectively form the endogenous pain control system. Two key areas involved of the endogenous pain control system have a circunventricular location, namely the periaqueductal grey (PAG) and the locus coeruleus (LC). The PAG plays a crucial role in descending pain modulation as it conveys the input from higher brain centers to the spinal cord. As to the LC, it is involved in descending pain inhibition by direct noradrenergic projections to the spinal cord. In the context of neurological defects, several diseases may affect the structure and function of the brain. Hydrocephalus is a congenital or acquired disease characterized by an enlargement of the ventricles which leads to a distortion of the adjacent tissues, including the PAG and LC. Usually, patients suffering from hydrocephalus present dysfunctions in learning and memory and also motor deficits. It remains to be evaluated if lesions of the periventricular brain areas involved in pain control during hydrocephalus may affect descending pain control and, herein, affect pain responses. The studies included in the present thesis used an experimental model of hydrocephalus (the rat injected in the cisterna magna with kaolin) to study descending modulation of pain, focusing on the two circumventricular regions referred above (the PAG and the LC). In order to evaluate the effects of kaolin injection into the cisterna magna, we measured the degree of ventricular dilatation in sections encompassing the PAG by standard cytoarquitectonic stanings (thionin staining). For the LC, immunodetection of the noradrenaline-synthetizing enzyme tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) was performed, due to the noradrenergic nature of the LC neurons. In general, rats with kaolin-induced hydrocephalus presented a higher dilatation of the 4th ventricle, along with a tendency to a higher area of the PAG. Due to the validated role of detection the c-fos protooncogene as a marker of neuronal activation, we also studied neuronal activation in the several subnuclei which compose the PAG, namely the dorsomedial, dorsolateral, lateral and ventrolateral (VLPAG) parts. A decrease in the numbers of neurons immunoreactive for Fos protein (the product of activation of the c-fos protooncogene) was detected in rats injected with kaolin, whereas the remaining PAG subnuclei did not present changes in Fos-immunoreactive nuclei. Increases in the levels of TH in the LC, namely at the rostral parts of the nucleus, were detected in hydrocephalic animals. The following pain-related parameters were measured, namely 1) pain behavioural responses in a validated pain inflammatory test (the formalin test) and 2) the nociceptive activation of spinal cord neurons. A decrease in behavioral responses was detected in rats with kaolin-induced hydrocephalus was detected, namely in the second phase of the test (inflammatory phase). This is the phase of the formalin test in which the motor behaviour is less important, which is important since a semi-quantitative analysis of the motor performance of rats injected with kaolin indicates that these animals may present some motor impairments. Collectively, the results of the behavioral studies indicate that rats with kaolin-induced hydrocephalus exhibit hypoalgesia. A decrease in Fos expression was detected at the superficial dorsal layers of the spinal cord in rats with kaolin-induced hydrocephalus, further indicating that hydrocephalus decreases nociceptive responses. It remains to be ascertained if this is due to alterations in the PAG and LC in the rats with kaolin-induced hydrocephalus, which may affect descending pain modulation. It remains to be evaluated what are the mechanisms underlying the increased pain inhibition at the spinal dorsal horn in the hydrocephalus rats. Regarding the VLPAG, the decrease in neuronal activity may impair descending modulation. Since the LC has higher levels of TH in rats with kaolininduced hydrocephalus, which also appears to increase the noradrenergic innervation in the spinal dorsal horn, it is possible that an increase in the release of noradrenaline at the spinal cord accounts for pain inhibition. Our studies also determine the need to study in detail patients with hydrocephalus namely in what concerns their thresholds to pain and to perform imaging studies focused on the structure and function of pain control areas in the brain.