On the detection of dynamic responses in a drought-perturbed tropical rainforest in Borneo

The dynamics of aseasonal lowland dipterocarp forest in Borneo is influenced by perturbation from droughts. These events might be increasing in frequency and intensity in the future. This paper describes drought-affected dynamics between 1986 and 2001 in Sabah, Malaysia, and considers how it is possible, reliably and accurately, to measure both coarse- and fine-scale responses of the forest. Some fundamental concerns about methodology and data analysis emerge. In two plots forming 8 ha, mortality, recruitment, and stem growth rates of trees ≥10 cm gbh (girth at breast height) were measured in a ‘pre-drought’ period (1986–1996), and in a period (1996–2001) including the 1997–1998 ENSO-drought. For 2.56 ha of subplots, mortality and growth rates of small trees (10–<50 cm gbh) were found also for two sub-periods (1996–1999, 1999–2001). A total of c. 19 K trees were recorded. Mortality rate increased by 25% while both recruitment and relative growth rates increased by 12% for all trees at the coarse scale. For small trees, at the fine scale, mortality increased by 6% and 9% from pre-drought to drought and on to ‘post-drought’ sub-periods. Relative growth rates correspondingly decreased by 38% and increased by 98%. Tree size and topography interacted in a complex manner with between-plot differences. The forest appears to have been sustained by off-setting elevated tree mortality by highly resilient stem growth. This last is seen as the key integrating tree variable which links the external driver (drought causing water stress) and population dynamics recorded as mortality and recruitment. Suitably sound measurements of stem girth, leading to valid growth rates, are needed to understand and model tree dynamic responses to perturbations. The proportion of sound data, however, is in part determined by the drought itself.

Sequential updating via dynamic hierarchical models: A Bayesian approach to longitudinal data analysis

Most statistical analysis, theory and practice, is concerned with static models; models with a proposed set of parameters whose values are fixed across observational units. Static models implicitly assume that the quantified relationships remain the same across the design space of the data. While this is reasonable under many circumstances this can be a dangerous assumption when dealing with sequentially ordered data. The mere passage of time always brings fresh considerations and the interrelationships among parameters, or subsets of parameters, may need to be continually revised. ^ When data are gathered sequentially dynamic interim monitoring may be useful as new subject-specific parameters are introduced with each new observational unit. Sequential imputation via dynamic hierarchical models is an efficient strategy for handling missing data and analyzing longitudinal studies. Dynamic conditional independence models offers a flexible framework that exploits the Bayesian updating scheme for capturing the evolution of both the population and individual effects over time. While static models often describe aggregate information well they often do not reflect conflicts in the information at the individual level. Dynamic models prove advantageous over static models in capturing both individual and aggregate trends. Computations for such models can be carried out via the Gibbs sampler. An application using a small sample repeated measures normally distributed growth curve data is presented. ^

Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type

Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD). The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef), age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years). The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm). The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants).

Growth in Virologically Suppressed HIV Positive Children on Antiretroviral Therapy: Individual and Population-Level References

BACKGROUND Combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) suppresses viral replication in HIV-infected children. The growth of virologically suppressed children on ART has not been well documented. We aimed to develop dynamic reference curves for weight-for-age z scores (WAZ) and height-for-age z scores (HAZ). RESULTS A total of 4,876 children were followed for 7,407 person-years. Analyses were stratified by baseline z-scores and age, which were the most important predictors of growth response. The youngest children showed the most pronounced increase in weight and height initially but catch-up growth stagnated after 1-2 years. Three years after starting ART, WAZ ranged from -2.2 (95% Prediction interval -5.6 to 0.8) in children with baseline age "5 years and z-score "-3 to 0.0 (-2.7 to 2.4) in children with baseline age "2 years and WAZ "-1. For HAZ the corresponding range was -2.3 (-4.9 to 0.3) in children with baseline age"5 years and z-score "-3 to 0.3 (-3.1 to 3.4) in children with baseline age 2-5 years and HAZ "-1. CONCLUSIONS We have developed an online tool to calculate reference trajectories in fully suppressed children. The web application could help to define 'optimal' growth response and identify children with treatment failure.

Abundance and size composition of ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi population in the Caspian Sea on 2001-06-24 to 2001-07-01

Abundance and size distribution of ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in different parts of the Caspian Sea were studied in summer 2001 in relation to environmental conditions. In general, principal differences were found in M. leidyi abundance and population reproduction activity in northern-, middle- and southern Caspian waters. Ctenophore was practically absent in the northern Caspian. In the west of the middle Caspian Sea it penetrated far to the north demonstrating low reproduction activity. In the east the first single comb jellies were pointed out only in the most south of the region. In the warmest and most productive southern part of the Caspian Sea several zones of M. leidyi active breeding were found with total abundance exceeding 6000 #/m**2. Breeding activity and abundance of ctenophores increased here from the east to the west exceeding maximum values along the western coast of the southern Caspian Sea in regions of intensive sprat catching. Dependence of M. leidyi population development on temperature conditions was mentioned. On the base of remote sensed surface temperature, chlorophyll, and suspended mater distribution analysis possible ctenophore settling mechanisms by mesoscale dynamic structures were examined. Practical applications of obtained results are discussed for using effective biological methods to prevent catastrophic consequences of M. leidyi invasion to the Caspian Sea.

Localization and Tracking in Energy-Constrained Networks with Dynamic Connectivity

Systems used for target localization, such as goods, individuals, or animals, commonly rely on operational means to meet the final application demands. However, what would happen if some means were powered up randomly by harvesting systems? And what if those devices not randomly powered had their duty cycles restricted? Under what conditions would such an operation be tolerable in localization services? What if the references provided by nodes in a tracking problem were distorted? Moreover, there is an underlying topic common to the previous questions regarding the transfer of conceptual models to reality in field tests: what challenges are faced upon deploying a localization network that integrates energy harvesting modules? The application scenario of the system studied is a traditional herding environment of semi domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in northern Scandinavia. In these conditions, information on approximate locations of reindeer is as important as environmental preservation. Herders also need cost-effective devices capable of operating unattended in, sometimes, extreme weather conditions. The analyses developed are worthy not only for the specific application environment presented, but also because they may serve as an approach to performance of navigation systems in absence of reasonably accurate references like the ones of the Global Positioning System (GPS). A number of energy-harvesting solutions, like thermal and radio-frequency harvesting, do not commonly provide power beyond one milliwatt. When they do, battery buffers may be needed (as it happens with solar energy) which may raise costs and make systems more dependent on environmental temperatures. In general, given our problem, a harvesting system is needed that be capable of providing energy bursts of, at least, some milliwatts. Many works on localization problems assume that devices have certain capabilities to determine unknown locations based on range-based techniques or fingerprinting which cannot be assumed in the approach considered herein. The system presented is akin to range-free techniques, but goes to the extent of considering very low node densities: most range-free techniques are, therefore, not applicable. Animal localization, in particular, uses to be supported by accurate devices such as GPS collars which deplete batteries in, maximum, a few days. Such short-life solutions are not particularly desirable in the framework considered. In tracking, the challenge may times addressed aims at attaining high precision levels from complex reliable hardware and thorough processing techniques. One of the challenges in this Thesis is the use of equipment with just part of its facilities in permanent operation, which may yield high input noise levels in the form of distorted reference points. The solution presented integrates a kinetic harvesting module in some nodes which are expected to be a majority in the network. These modules are capable of providing power bursts of some milliwatts which suffice to meet node energy demands. The usage of harvesting modules in the aforementioned conditions makes the system less dependent on environmental temperatures as no batteries are used in nodes with harvesters--it may be also an advantage in economic terms. There is a second kind of nodes. They are battery powered (without kinetic energy harvesters), and are, therefore, dependent on temperature and battery replacements. In addition, their operation is constrained by duty cycles in order to extend node lifetime and, consequently, their autonomy. There is, in turn, a third type of nodes (hotspots) which can be static or mobile. They are also battery-powered, and are used to retrieve information from the network so that it is presented to users. The system operational chain starts at the kinetic-powered nodes broadcasting their own identifier. If an identifier is received at a battery-powered node, the latter stores it for its records. Later, as the recording node meets a hotspot, its full record of detections is transferred to the hotspot. Every detection registry comprises, at least, a node identifier and the position read from its GPS module by the battery-operated node previously to detection. The characteristics of the system presented make the aforementioned operation own certain particularities which are also studied. First, identifier transmissions are random as they depend on movements at kinetic modules--reindeer movements in our application. Not every movement suffices since it must overcome a certain energy threshold. Second, identifier transmissions may not be heard unless there is a battery-powered node in the surroundings. Third, battery-powered nodes do not poll continuously their GPS module, hence localization errors rise even more. Let's recall at this point that such behavior is tight to the aforementioned power saving policies to extend node lifetime. Last, some time is elapsed between the instant an identifier random transmission is detected and the moment the user is aware of such a detection: it takes some time to find a hotspot. Tracking is posed as a problem of a single kinetically-powered target and a population of battery-operated nodes with higher densities than before in localization. Since the latter provide their approximate positions as reference locations, the study is again focused on assessing the impact of such distorted references on performance. Unlike in localization, distance-estimation capabilities based on signal parameters are assumed in this problem. Three variants of the Kalman filter family are applied in this context: the regular Kalman filter, the alpha-beta filter, and the unscented Kalman filter. The study enclosed hereafter comprises both field tests and simulations. Field tests were used mainly to assess the challenges related to power supply and operation in extreme conditions as well as to model nodes and some aspects of their operation in the application scenario. These models are the basics of the simulations developed later. The overall system performance is analyzed according to three metrics: number of detections per kinetic node, accuracy, and latency. The links between these metrics and the operational conditions are also discussed and characterized statistically. Subsequently, such statistical characterization is used to forecast performance figures given specific operational parameters. In tracking, also studied via simulations, nonlinear relationships are found between accuracy and duty cycles and cluster sizes of battery-operated nodes. The solution presented may be more complex in terms of network structure than existing solutions based on GPS collars. However, its main gain lies on taking advantage of users' error tolerance to reduce costs and become more environmentally friendly by diminishing the potential amount of batteries that can be lost. Whether it is applicable or not depends ultimately on the conditions and requirements imposed by users' needs and operational environments, which is, as it has been explained, one of the topics of this Thesis.

A dynamic, probabilistic model for city building

The problem of interdependence between housing and commuting in a city has been analysed within the framework of welfare economics. Uncertain changes overtime in the working population has been considered by means of a dynamic, probabilistic model. The characteristics of irreversibility and durability in city building have been explicitly dealt with. The ultimate objective is that the model after further development will be an auxiliary tool in city planning.

γ-Aminobutyric acid type B receptor-dependent burst-firing in thalamic neurons: A dynamic clamp study

Synchronized network responses in thalamus depend on phasic inhibition originating in the thalamic reticular nucleus (nRt) and are mediated by the neurotransmitter γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA). A suggested role for intra-nRt connectivity in inhibitory phasing remains controversial. Recently, functional GABA type B (GABAB) receptors were demonstrated on nRt cells, and the slow time course of the GABAB synaptic response seems ideally suited to deinactivate low-threshold calcium channels. This promotes burst firing, a characteristic feature of synchronized responses. Here we investigate GABAB-mediated rebound burst firing in thalamic cells. Whole-cell current-clamp recordings were obtained from nRt cells and somatosensory thalamocortical relay cells in rat brain slices. Synthetic GABAB inhibitory postsynaptic potentials, generated by a hybrid computer–neuron synapse (dynamic clamp), triggered rebound low-threshold calcium spikes in both cell types when peak inhibitory postsynaptic potential hyperpolarization was greater than −92 mV. The threshold inhibitory postsynaptic potential conductance for rebound burst generation was comparable in nRt (7 nS) and thalamocortical (5 nS) cells. However, burst onset in nRt (1 s) was considerably delayed compared with thalamocortical (0.6 s) cells. Thus, GABAB inhibitory postsynaptic potentials can elicit low-threshold calcium spikes in both relay and nRt neurons, but the resultant oscillation frequency would be faster for thalamocortical–nRt networks (3 Hz) than for nRt–nRt networks (1–2 Hz). We conclude, therefore, that fast (>2 Hz) GABAB-dependent thalamic oscillations are maintained primarily by reciprocal connections between excitatory and inhibitory cells. These findings further indicate that when oscillatory neural networks contain both recurrent and reciprocal inhibition, then distinct population frequencies may result when one or the other type of inhibition is favored.

Population genetics of Ice Age brown bears

The Pleistocene was a dynamic period for Holarctic mammal species, complicated by episodes of glaciation, local extinctions, and intercontinental migration. The genetic consequences of these events are difficult to resolve from the study of present-day populations. To provide a direct view of population genetics in the late Pleistocene, we measured mitochondrial DNA sequence variation in seven permafrost-preserved brown bear (Ursus arctos) specimens, dated from 14,000 to 42,000 years ago. Approximately 36,000 years ago, the Beringian brown bear population had a higher genetic diversity than any extant North American population, but by 15,000 years ago genetic diversity appears similar to the modern day. The older, genetically diverse, Beringian population contained sequences from three clades now restricted to local regions within North America, indicating that current phylogeographic patterns may provide misleading data for evolutionary studies and conservation management. The late Pleistocene phylogeographic data also indicate possible colonization routes to areas south of the Cordilleran ice sheet.

Dynamic expression of multiple scavenger receptor cysteine-rich genes in coelomocytes of the purple sea urchin

Coelomocytes, the heterogeneous population of sea urchin putative immune cells, were found to express a complex set of transcripts featuring scavenger receptor cysteine-rich (SRCR) repeats. SRCR domains define a metazoan superfamily of proteins, many of which are implicated in development and regulation of the immune system of vertebrates. Coelomocytes transcribe multiple SRCR genes from among a multigene family encoding an estimated number of 1,200 SRCR domains in specific patterns particular to each individual. Transcription levels for given SRCR genes may range from pronounced to undetectable, yet all tested animals harbor the genomic loci encoding these genes. Analysis of several SRCR genes revealed multiple loci corresponding to each type. In the case of one SRCR type, a cluster of at least three genes was detected within a 133-kb bacterial artificial chromosome insert, and conserved as well as unique regions were identified in sequences of three genomic clones derived from a single animal. Array hybridizations with repeated samples of coelomocyte messages revealed substantial alterations in levels of expression of many SRCR genes, with fluctuations of up to 10-fold in 1 week and up to 30-fold over a period of 3 months. This report is the first demonstration of genomic and transcriptional complexity in molecules expressed by invertebrate coelomocytes. The mechanisms controlling SRCR gene expression and the functional significance of this dynamic system await elucidation.

Digging for dead genes: an analysis of the characteristics of the pseudogene population in the Caenorhabditis elegans genome

Pseudogenes are non-functioning copies of genes in genomic DNA, which may either result from reverse transcription from an mRNA transcript (processed pseudogenes) or from gene duplication and subsequent disablement (non-processed pseudogenes). As pseudogenes are apparently ‘dead’, they usually have a variety of obvious disablements (e.g., insertions, deletions, frameshifts and truncations) relative to their functioning homologs. We have derived an initial estimate of the size, distribution and characteristics of the pseudogene population in the Caenorhabditis elegans genome, performing a survey in ‘molecular archaeology’. Corresponding to the 18 576 annotated proteins in the worm (i.e., in Wormpep18), we have found an estimated total of 2168 pseudogenes, about one for every eight genes. Few of these appear to be processed. Details of our pseudogene assignments are available from http://bioinfo.mbb.yale.edu/genome/worm/pseudogene. The population of pseudogenes differs significantly from that of genes in a number of respects: (i) pseudogenes are distributed unevenly across the genome relative to genes, with a disproportionate number on chromosome IV; (ii) the density of pseudogenes is higher on the arms of the chromosomes; (iii) the amino acid composition of pseudogenes is midway between that of genes and (translations of) random intergenic DNA, with enrichment of Phe, Ile, Leu and Lys, and depletion of Asp, Ala, Glu and Gly relative to the worm proteome; and (iv) the most common protein folds and families differ somewhat between genes and pseudogenes—whereas the most common fold found in the worm proteome is the immunoglobulin fold and the most common ‘pseudofold’ is the C-type lectin. In addition, the size of a gene family bears little overall relationship to the size of its corresponding pseudogene complement, indicating a highly dynamic genome. There are in fact a number of families associated with large populations of pseudogenes. For example, one family of seven-transmembrane receptors (represented by gene B0334.7) has one pseudogene for every four genes, and another uncharacterized family (represented by gene B0403.1) is approximately two-thirds pseudogenic. Furthermore, over a hundred apparent pseudogenic fragments do not have any obvious homologs in the worm.

Looking Forward to a Dynamic Third Age - Comparative Survey Report

BALL (Be Active Through Lifelong Learning) is an Erasmus + project of the European Union with the chief objective of analysing the degree of Preparation for Retirement among European citizens. The team working for this project, funded by the EU, is composed by organizations with broad experience at work with the third age from three European countries, Poland, Iceland and Spain, and the results obtained from these three contexts aim to provide a clear picture about the state of the art in preparation for retirement nowadays. The main objective of the project is to develop innovative guidelines and recommendations for use at lifelong learning centres; universities; companies; unions; associations; local and regional authorities who need and wish to prepare and encourage individuals under their auspices to prepare for the third age. The project defines the age group of 50 to 70 (the “baby boomer” generation) as the target group for such early preparations. The project and its outcomes will be used to raise awareness of these important issues and disseminate the results throughout the European Educational Area and the worldwide U3A network.

Essays in dynamic optimal taxation: working experience, unemployment scarring and poverty

This thesis investigates the design of optimal tax systems in dynamic environments. The first essay characterizes the optimal tax system where wages depend on stochastic shocks and work experience. In addition to redistributive and efficiency motives, the taxation of inexperienced workers depends on a second-best requirement that encourages work experience, a social insurance motive and incentive effects. Calibrations using U.S. data yield higher expected optimal marginal income tax rates for experienced workers for most of the inexperienced workers. They confirm that the average marginal income tax rate increases (decreases) with age when shocks and work experience are substitutes (complements). Finally, more variability in experienced workers' earnings prospects leads to increasing tax rates since income taxation acts as a social insurance mechanism. In the second essay, the properties of an optimal tax system are investigated in a dynamic private information economy where labor market frictions create unemployment that destroys workers' human capital. A two-skill type model is considered where wages and employment are endogenous. I find that the optimal tax system distorts the first-period wages of all workers below their efficient levels which leads to more employment. The standard no-distortion-at-the-top result no longer holds due to the combination of private information and the destruction of human capital. I show this result analytically under the Maximin social welfare function and confirm it numerically for a general social welfare function. I also investigate the use of a training program and job creation subsidies. The final essay analyzes the optimal linear tax system when there is a population of individuals whose perceptions of savings are linked to their disposable income and their family background through family cultural transmission. Aside from the standard equity/efficiency trade-off, taxes account for the endogeneity of perceptions through two channels. First, taxing labor decreases income, which decreases the perception of savings through time. Second, taxation on savings corrects for the misperceptions of workers and thus savings and labor decisions. Numerical simulations confirm that behavioral issues push labor income taxes upward to finance saving subsidies. Government transfers to individuals are also decreased to finance those same subsidies.

Is the association between late-life morbidity and disability attenuated over time? : Exploring the dynamic equilibrium of morbidity hypothesis

Context: There is evidence suggesting that the prevalence of disability in late life has declined over time while the prevalence of disabling chronic diseases has increased. The dynamic equilibrium of morbidity hypothesis suggests that these seemingly contradictory trends are due to the attenuation of the morbidity-disability link over time. The aim of this study was to empirically test this assumption.Methods: Data were drawn from three repeated cross-sections of SWEOLD, a population-based survey among the Swedish men and women ages 77 and older. Logistic regression models were fitted to assess the trends in the prevalence of Activities of Daily Living (ADL) disability, Instrumental ADL (IADL) disability, and selected groups of chronic conditions. The changes in the associations between chronic conditions and disabilities were examined in both multiplicative and additive models.Results: Between 1992 and 2011, the odds of ADL disability significantly declined among women whereas the odds of IADL disability significantly declined among men. During the same period, the prevalence of most chronic morbidities including multimorbidity went up. Significant attenuations of the morbidity-disability associations were found for cardiovascular diseases, metabolic disorders, poor lung function, psychological distress, and multimorbidity.Conclusion: In agreement with the dynamic equilibrium hypothesis, this study concludes that the associations between chronic conditions and disability among the Swedish older adults have largely waned over time.

Dynamic microtubules regulate the local concentration of E-cadherin at cell-cell contacts

In contrast to the well-established relationship between cadherins and the actin cytoskeleton, the potential link between cadherins and microtubules (MTs) has been less extensively investigated. We now identify a pool of MTs that extend radially into cell-cell contacts and are inhibited by manoeuvres that block the dynamic activity of MT plus-ends (e.g. in the presence of low concentrations of nocodazole and following expression of a CLIP-170 mutant). Blocking dynamic MTs perturbed the ability of cells to concentrate and accumulate E-cadherin at cell-cell contacts, as assessed both by quantitative immunofluorescence microscopy and fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP) analysis, but did not affect either transport of E-cadherin to the plasma membrane or the amount of E-cadherin expressed at the cell surface. This indicated that dynamic MTs allow cells to concentrate E-cadherin at cell-cell contacts by regulating the regional distribution of E-cadherin once it reaches the cell surface. Importantly, dynamic MTs were necessary for myosin II to accumulate and be activated at cadherin adhesive contacts, a mechanism that supports the focal accumulation of E-cadherin. We propose that this population of MTs represents a novel form of cadherin-MT cooperation, where cadherin adhesions recruit dynamic MTs that, in turn, support the local concentration of cadherin molecules by regulating myosin II activity at cell-cell contacts.