Guatemala: A Failing State?

 Guatemala is not a failed state and is unlikely to become one in the near future. Although the state currently fails to provide adequate security to its citizens or an appropriate range of effective social programs, it does supply a functioning electoral democracy, sound economic management, and a promising new antipoverty program, My Family Progresses (MIFAPRO).  Guatemala is a weak state. The principal security threats represented by expanding Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs), criminal parallel powers, and urban gangs have overwhelmed the resources of the under-resourced and compromised criminal justice system. The UN-sponsored International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), however, has demonstrated that progress against organized crime is possible.  The principal obstacles to strengthening the Guatemalan state lie in the traditional economic elite’s resistance to taxation and the venal political class’ narrow focus on short-term interests. Guatemala lacks a strong, policyoriented, mass-based political party that could develop a coherent national reform program and mobilize public support around it.  The United States should strengthen the Guatemalan state by expanding the Central America Regional Security Initiative (CARSI) and by strongly supporting CICIG, MIFAPRO, and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).

Islamist Cyber Networks in Spanish-Speaking Latin America

Despite significant concern among policy, law enforcement and intelligence communities in the United States (U.S.) over the possible spread of radical Islamist thought throughout the world as part of a global jihad movement, there has been little investigation into the growing cyber networks in Latin America that promote strong anti-Semitic and anti-U.S. messages. This paper offers an overview of that network, focusing on the structure of Shi’ite websites that promote not only religious conversion but are also supportive of Iran -- a designated State-sponsor of terrorism – its nuclear program. Hezbollah, and the “Bolivarian revolution” led by Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and his allies in Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua. There is also a smaller group of Sunni Muslim websites, mostly tied to the legacy organizations of the Muslim Brotherhood. Many of the Shi’ite websites are linked to each other consistently portray Israel as a Nazi State, and the United States as an imperialist war monger. The Palestinian issue is frequently juxtaposed with the anti-imperialist struggle that those states supporting Chávez’ Bolivarian revolution claim to wage against the United States. Some of the Islamist websites claim thousands of new convert, but such claims are difficult to verify. Most of the websites visited touted the conversion of one or two individuals as significant victories and signs of progress, implying that there are few, if any, mass conversions. While conducting this research, no websites directly claiming to be linked to Hezbollah were found, although there numerous sites hosted by that group that were active until around 2006. Several of the inactive links are supportive of Hezbollah as a political party. No websites linked to al Qaeda were found. Yet a substantial Internet network remains operational. Much of the outreach for Shi’ite Muslims, closely tied to Iran, is sponsored on numerous websites across the region, including El Salvador, Chile, Ecuador, Colombia, Mexico and Bolivia. Numerous Facebook forums for discussion are also hosted around Latin America. These links must be viewed in the context of the rapidly expanding diplomatic, intelligence, political and economic ties of Iran in recent years with the self-proclaimed Bolivarian states. Given the sparse literature available and the rich vein of un-mined information on the sites cited as well as others that one could find with additional research, the cyber network of Islamist groups remains one of the least understood or studied facets of their presence in Latin America and the Caribbean. It merits significantly more investigation.

Domestic Politics in the Dominican Republic after the Earthquake in Haiti

Despite historical tensions between the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Dominicans appear to have put aside their resentment in favor of supporting Haitians after the earthquake that devastated the neighbor nation in January 2010. Over the past several months, there has been unprecedented cooperation between the Dominican Republic and Haiti, with little evidence of a negative impact on domestic politics in the Dominican Republic. In fact, the high ratings of President Leonel Fernández and the results of the May Parliamentary elections may suggest that how the Fernández administration handled the Haitian crisis did not have a negative impact on citizens’ perception. However, the issue of Haitian immigration remains very sensitive in the Dominican Republic, and has the potential to become the major concern on the domestic political front. As of June 2010, the Haitian crisis seemed to have little or no impact on Dominican politics, as the following points indicate: The May 16, 2010 Parliamentary elections increased President Fernández political party to 31 out of 32 Senate seats, and 105 out of 183 Chamber of Deputies seats; this is a total increase of 18 seats from the previous term. Polls indicate that President Fernández has a 54 percent approval rating. Polls also indicate that Haiti is not among the most pressing issues of concern to Dominican citizens. Instead, 65 percent of the population identifies drug trafficking and corruption as the greatest concerns. The immigration debate will remain the major consideration in domestic politics in the Dominican Republic; 62.4 percent of Dominicans polled think that the military should be strengthened along the DR-Haitian border.

The use of presidential executive orders to control the management and administration of the federal government

As long as governmental institutions have existed, efforts have been undertaken to reform them. This research examines a particular strategy, coercive controls, exercised through a particular instrument, executive orders, by a singular reformer, the president of the United States. The presidents studied- Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, and Clinton-are those whose campaigns for office were characterized to varying degrees as against Washington bureaucracy and for executive reform. Executive order issuance is assessed through an examination of key factors for each president including political party affiliation, levels of political capital, and legislative experience. A classification typology is used to identify the topical dimensions and levels of coerciveness. The portrayal of the federal government is analyzed through examination of public, media, and presidential attention. The results show that executive orders are significant management tools for the president. Executive orders also represent an important component of the transition plans for incoming administrations. The findings indicate that overall, while executive orders have not increased in the aggregate, they are more intrusive and significant. When the factors of political party affiliation, political capital, and legislative experience are examined, it reveals a strong relationship between executive orders and previous executive experience, specifically presidents who served as a state governor prior to winning national election as president. Presidents Carter, Reagan, and Clinton (all former governors) have the highest percent of executive orders focusing on the federal bureaucracy. Additionally, the highest percent of forceful orders were issued by former governors (41.0%) as compared to their presidential counterparts who have not served as governors (19.9%). Secondly, political party affiliation is an important, but not significant, predictor for the use of executive orders. Thirdly, management strategies that provide the president with the greatest level of autonomy-executive orders redefine the concept of presidential power and autonomous action. Interviews of elite government officials and political observers support the idea that executive orders can provide the president with a successful management strategy, requiring less expenditure of political resources, less risk to political capital, and a way of achieving objectives without depending on an unresponsive Congress.

A "voz das ruas" e a rearticulação da ideologia conservadora

The aim of this paper is to analyze the street demonstrations occurred last June and July 2013, which appear as samples of the hegemonic fights in course in Brazil, during the so-called Big Wave of the social groups in conflict nowadays in the country. Among other questions, this study tries to explain how the varied stages of these fighting groups influenced their late ones. For that, it takes into consideration the bibliography available not only on these groups, but also on the social and political contemporary Brazil. That is why it evaluates political documents, as well as opinion pieces, news and others disseminated by the press or by political groups. Speeches made by political leaderships, as, for example, that one the President Dilma Roussef made on 21 July 2013, deserves close analysis. This also applies to contributions made by secondary data, poll institutions and IBGE’s socio-economic data. Categories and concepts of Antonio Gramsci’s political sociology are used here as theoretic bases. In fact, it favors the hypothesis that, during the dispute for the intellectual and moral command of demonstrations on July 2013, a certain middle-class conservative ideology emerged on scene. This group conquered the agreement of hegemonic mass media acting now as a political party, here designated as media party. These media resorted to platforms preexistent to the demonstration movements, especially their rejection to political organizations and programs in order to ascend as the demonstrations’ leaders along a certain period in which corruption appeared as the central theme of these efforts, while the government tried to get control of the situation. In view of the several forces and issues at stake, the present study contributes to the discussion about the current reality in Brazil and its perspectives, without losing sight of the centrality of the June Movements as political and ideological milestones

Representações discursivas de Lula nas capas das revistas Época e Veja

This doctoral dissertation proposes to analyze the discursive representations of Lula, as they appear on the covers of the magazines, Época and Veja, targeting the verbo visual elements that comprise the genre, magazine covers. In this way, we seek to describe and interpret the discursive representations (Drs), using a theoretical framework based on the Textual Discourse Analysis –TDA, developed by Jean Michel Adam (2011a), focusing on the semantic level of the text, that is, on the dimension that allows for the comprehension of Drs present in a text. For a discussion about the Drs and their categories of analysis referencing, predication, modification, relation and spatial localization and time we use as a starting point, the study by Brize about the logical discursive operations (1990, 1996), and continue through the studies that discuss linguistic, textual, and discursive operations in concrete utterances, such as Castilho (2010), Rodrigues; Passeggi; Silva Neto (2010), Neves (2011), Rodrigues et al. (2012), Passeggi (2001; 2012), Queiroz (2013), among others. In addition, we rely on Multimodal Discourse for the verbo visual aspects present on magazine covers (KRESS; van LEEUWEN, 2006; DIONISIO, 2011; DIONISIO; VASCONCELOS, 2013). Using aresearch approach that is qualitative with quantitative support, and which is documental, and based on deductive inductive methods, we describe and interpret a corpus (SEVERINO, 2007; CHIZZOTTI, 2010; OLIVEIRA, M., 2013), aiming to reconstruct Lula’s Drs. The cor pusis comprised of forty one magazine covers sixteen from Época and twenty four from Veja. The covers date from the election period in which the candidate, Lula, was elected President of Brazil in 2002, the last mandate after his reelection in 2006, and in the year 2010 a period of 9 years. Based on the analysis carried out, we can affirm that the magazines, Época and Veja, construct diverse Drs by Lula, such as: candidate; elected candidate; governing member and member of a political party; reelected president; politics; workers party acronym PT; international governments as allies; accomplices and participants in scandals of corruption; friend, brother, cousin, nephew, father, parent and man; among others that unfold throughout these by the mediation of the modifiers of the referents and processes, and by the very processes and connections, and analogies made on the object of discourse, Lula. Nonetheless, the reconstruction of these is derived from the description and interpretation of the textual linguistic and discursive choices that the magazines make to produce the proposition utterances, as well as by the choices of images and other visual resources, all operating as co(n)textually articulated to produce the magazine’s desired effect. In conclusion, the Drs verified demand the reflection, description and interpretation of the referencing, prediction, the relationship and spatial temporal localization, which was only possible through the textual discursive analysis of the verbo visual arrangements that comprise texts in the genre magazine cover.

El interés de la audiencia por las intervenciones televisivas de Pablo Iglesias: estrategia comunicativa de Podemos

Este artículo analiza la eclosión mediática y política del partido político Podemos durante sus primeros meses de vida tras las elecciones europeas. Comprobaremos si el interés que despierta el partido en sus inicios, en intención de voto, se traslada a las audiencias de televisión con dos hipótesis que muestran la estrategia comunicativa de Podemos y su repercusión: la H1 afirma que los programas en los que participa Pablo Iglesias obtienen mayor audiencia de la habitual y la H2 plantea que la apuesta del líder de Podemos por el medio televisivo es muy superior y con mejores resultados con respecto a los partidos clásicos. Los resultados demuestran que los programas en los que participa (N=14) crecen un 62% y baten récord de audiencia. Concluimos que la estrategia comunicativa de Podemos da importancia a la televisión, además de continuar con la estrategia en redes aprendida en el 15M.

El uso de la documentación con una nueva formación política: Podemos

Esta investigación pretende analizar, desde un punto de vista documental, el tratamiento periodístico dado por los principales medios impresos españoles a las informaciones sobre el nuevo partido político Podemos en el momento de su eclosión. Podemos es un fenómeno social que en muy breve espacio de tiempo cambió los parámetros políticos de España. Por ello, queremos conocer cómo los principales medios de comunicación elaboraron sus informaciones en ese contexto de novedad que supuso su aparición. La documentación es el pilar de la información periodística de calidad, razón por la que nos servimos de ella para medir, dentro del marco de nuestra investigación, la calidad del periodismo que se practicó con dicha formación política.

Conflictos entre el pueblo y las autoridades. Bubenreuth: un ejemplo actual en Baviera

The sovereign of a democratic state is „the people“. However, they transfer their voices to a few political party representatives in order to make them exercise legislative and executive powers in the name of “the people”. In different European countries, this model of representative democracy is marked by elements of direct democracy. In Switzerland, for example, there are frequent plebiscites on a number of issues and in France, the President of the Republic is elected directly. In Germany, the constitution calls for a “Volksabstimmung”, or a referendum at the federal level, a “Volksentscheid” or plebiscite at the federal state level and a “Bürgerentscheid” at the city level. But in small municipalities where everyone knows each other and people talk, a different form of direct democracy continues on. In the case of Bubenreuth, where I have lived for more than 30 years, the community dared to raise its voice against the mayor and against town councillors to have them revoke the application of a legal but unjust regulation, or for them to at least mitigate the effects.

Los cambios del sistema político colombiano en virtud de los preceptos de Arend Lijphart y sus efectos en la oposición durante el periodo 2006 – 2013

El interés principal de esta monografía es demostrar, cómo dentro del marco institucional colombiano, cambió el tipo de Democracia en dos periodos de gobierno, y cómo dicho cambio afectó negativamente al sistema de partidos y específicamente a los partidos de oposición. Esto será analizado desde la teoría de Arend Lijphart sobre Democracia mayoritaria y Democracia consensual, incluyendo dentro del análisis, el marco institucional donde se desenvuelve el sistema político colombiano. Para un mayor entendimiento de la temática, se realiza un recuento de la institucionalidad de los partidos políticos en Colombia desde su formación hasta el día de hoy, prestando principal interés a los periodos de Gobierno comprendidos entre 2006 y 2013.

Euroscepticism vs. Political Pragmatism: The Finns Party tones down its criticism of the EU. EPIN Commentary No. 19, 26 June 2014

While many Eurosceptic parties in Europe achieved historical successes in this year’s EP elections, Finland’s populist Finns Party was unable to fulfil its own high expectations. With the eurozone crisis at least temporarily subsiding and Finland’s own economy struggling, the party has been unable to find a new electoral trump card. Facing a changed political climate and stiffer competition, the party is currently toning down its criticism of the EU, as indicated by its recent decision to join the British Tories in the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group.