Fuzzy Monte Carlo model for transmission power systems reliability based decision making

This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.

Reliability of a questionnaire on substance use among adolescent students, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To analyze reliability of a self-applied questionnaire on substance use and misuse among adolescent students. METHODS: Two cross-sectional studies were carried out for the instrument test-retest. The sample comprised male and female students aged 1119 years from public and private schools (elementary, middle, and high school students) in the city of Salvador, Northeastern Brazil, in 2006. A total of 591 questionnaires were applied in the test and 467 in the retest. Descriptive statistics, the Kappa index, Cronbach's alpha and intraclass correlation were estimated. RESULTS: The prevalence of substance use/misuse was similar in both test and retest. Sociodemographic variables showed a "moderate" to "almost perfect" agreement for the Kappa index, and a "satisfactory" (>0.75) consistency for Cronbach's alpha and intraclass correlation. The age which psychoactive substances (tobacco, alcohol, and cannabis) were first used and chronological age were similar in both studies. Test-retest reliability was found to be a good indicator of students' age of initiation and their patterns of substance use. CONCLUSIONS: The questionnaire reliability was found to be satisfactory in the population studied.

An approach for reliability-based robust design optimisation of angle-ply composites

Variations of manufacturing process parameters and environmental aspects may affect the quality and performance of composite materials, which consequently affects their structural behaviour. Reliability-based design optimisation (RBDO) and robust design optimisation (RDO) searches for safe structural systems with minimal variability of response when subjected to uncertainties in material design parameters. An approach that simultaneously considers reliability and robustness is proposed in this paper. Depending on a given reliability index imposed on composite structures, a trade-off is established between the performance targets and robustness. Robustness is expressed in terms of the coefficient of variation of the constrained structural response weighted by its nominal value. The Pareto normed front is built and the nearest point to the origin is estimated as the best solution of the bi-objective optimisation problem.

Uncertainty propagation in inverse reliability-based design of composite structures

An approach for the analysis of uncertainty propagation in reliability-based design optimization of composite laminate structures is presented. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a domain centered on the mean reference values of the random variables. A methodology based on inverse optimal design of composite structures to achieve a specified reliability level is proposed, and the corresponding maximum load is outlined as a function of ply angle. Using the generated UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on an evolutionary learning process. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation using ANN development is performed to simulate the behavior of the critical Tsai number, structural reliability index, and their relative sensitivities as a function of the ply angle of laminates. The results are generated for uniformly distributed random variables on a domain centered on mean values. The statistical analysis of the results enables the study of the variability of the reliability index and its sensitivity relative to the ply angle. Numerical examples showing the utility of the approach for robust design of angle-ply laminates are presented.

Improving the reliability of WiDom in a single broadcast domain

WiDom is a previously proposed prioritized medium access control protocol for wireless channels. We present a modification to this protocol in order to improve its reliability. This modification has similarities with cooperative relaying schemes, but, in our protocol, all nodes can relay a carrier wave. The preliminary evaluation shows that, under transmission errors, a significant reduction on the number of failed tournaments can be achieved.

Validity and reliability of a health care service evaluation instrument for tuberculosis

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the validity and reliability of an instrument that evaluates the structure of primary health care units for the treatment of tuberculosis.METHODS This cross-sectional study used simple random sampling and evaluated 1,037 health care professionals from five Brazilian municipalities (Natal, state of Rio Grande do Norte; Cabedelo, state of Paraíba; Foz do Iguaçu, state of Parana; Sao José do Rio Preto, state of Sao Paulo, and Uberaba, state of Minas Gerais) in 2011. Structural indicators were identified and validated, considering different methods of organization of the health care system in the municipalities of different population sizes. Each structure represented the organization of health care services and contained the resources available for the execution of health care services: physical resources (equipment, consumables, and facilities); human resources (number and qualification); and resources for maintenance of the existing infrastructure and technology (deemed as the organization of health care services). The statistical analyses used in the validation process included reliability analysis, exploratory factor analysis, and confirmatory factor analysis.RESULTS The validation process indicated the retention of five factors, with 85.9% of the total variance explained, internal consistency between 0.6460 and 0.7802, and quality of fit of the confirmatory factor analysis of 0.995 using the goodness-of-fit index. The retained factors comprised five structural indicators: professionals involved in the care of tuberculosis patients, training, access to recording instruments, availability of supplies, and coordination of health care services with other levels of care. Availability of supplies had the best performance and the lowest coefficient of variation among the services evaluated. The indicators of assessment of human resources and coordination with other levels of care had satisfactory performance, but the latter showed the highest coefficient of variation. The performance of the indicators “training” and “access to recording instruments” was inferior to that of other indicators.CONCLUSIONS The instrument showed feasibility of application and potential to assess the structure of primary health care units for the treatment of tuberculosis.

Validity and reliability of the Questionnaire for Compliance with Standard Precaution

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE : To evaluate the validity and reliability of the Questionnaire for Compliance with Standard Precaution for nurses. METHODS : This methodological study was conducted with 121 nurses from health care facilities in Sao Paulo's countryside, who were represented by two high-complexity and by three average-complexity health care facilities. Internal consistency was calculated using Cronbach's alpha and stability was calculated by the intraclass correlation coefficient, through test-retest. Convergent, discriminant, and known-groups construct validity techniques were conducted. RESULTS : The questionnaire was found to be reliable (Cronbach's alpha: 0.80; intraclass correlation coefficient: (0.97) In regards to the convergent and discriminant construct validity, strong correlation was found between compliance to standard precautions, the perception of a safe environment, and the smaller perception of obstacles to follow such precautions (r = 0.614 and r = 0.537, respectively). The nurses who were trained on the standard precautions and worked on the health care facilities of higher complexity were shown to comply more (p = 0.028 and p = 0.006, respectively). CONCLUSIONS : The Brazilian version of the Questionnaire for Compliance with Standard Precaution was shown to be valid and reliable. Further investigation must be conducted with nurse samples that are more representative of the Brazilian reality. The use of the questionnaire may support the creation of educational measures considering the possible gaps that can be identified, focusing on the workers' health and on the patients' safety.

Content validity and reliability of test of gross motor development in Chilean children

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To validate a Spanish version of the Test of Gross Motor Development (TGMD-2) for the Chilean population. METHODS Descriptive, transversal, non-experimental validity and reliability study. Four translators, three experts and 92 Chilean children, from five to 10 years, students from a primary school in Santiago, Chile, have participated. The Committee of Experts has carried out translation, back-translation and revision processes to determine the translinguistic equivalence and content validity of the test, using the content validity index in 2013. In addition, a pilot implementation was achieved to determine test reliability in Spanish, by using the intraclass correlation coefficient and Bland-Altman method. We evaluated whether the results presented significant differences by replacing the bat with a racket, using T-test. RESULTS We obtained a content validity index higher than 0.80 for language clarity and relevance of the TGMD-2 for children. There were significant differences in the object control subtest when comparing the results with bat and racket. The intraclass correlation coefficient for reliability inter-rater, intra-rater and test-retest reliability was greater than 0.80 in all cases. CONCLUSIONS The TGMD-2 has appropriate content validity to be applied in the Chilean population. The reliability of this test is within the appropriate parameters and its use could be recommended in this population after the establishment of normative data, setting a further precedent for the validation in other Latin American countries.

Reliability and availability in reconfigurable computing: a basis for a common solution

Dynamically reconfigurable SRAM-based field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) enable the implementation of reconfigurable computing systems where several applications may be run simultaneously, sharing the available resources according to their own immediate functional requirements. To exclude malfunctioning due to faulty elements, the reliability of all FPGA resources must be guaranteed. Since resource allocation takes place asynchronously, an online structural test scheme is the only way of ensuring reliable system operation. On the other hand, this test scheme should not disturb the operation of the circuit, otherwise availability would be compromised. System performance is also influenced by the efficiency of the management strategies that must be able to dynamically allocate enough resources when requested by each application. As those resources are allocated and later released, many small free resource blocks are created, which are left unused due to performance and routing restrictions. To avoid wasting logic resources, the FPGA logic space must be defragmented regularly. This paper presents a non-intrusive active replication procedure that supports the proposed test methodology and the implementation of defragmentation strategies, assuring both the availability of resources and their perfect working condition, without disturbing system operation.

A reliability-based measure of robustness for concrete structures subjected to corrosion

This work is a contribution to the definition and assessment of structural robustness. Special emphasis is given to reliability of reinforced concrete structures under corrosion of longitudinal reinforcement. On this communication several authors’ proposals in order to define and measure structural robustness are analyzed and discussed. The probabilistic based robustness index is defined, considering the reliability index decreasing for all possible damage levels. Damage is considered as the corrosion level of the longitudinal reinforcement in terms of rebar weight loss. Damage produces changes in both cross sectional area of rebar and bond strength. The proposed methodology is illustrated by means of an application example. In order to consider the impact of reinforcement corrosion on failure probability growth, an advanced methodology based on the strong discontinuities approach and an isotropic continuum damage model for concrete is adopted. The methodology consist on a two-step analysis: on the first step an analysis of the cross section is performed in order to capture phenomena such as expansion of the reinforcement due to the corrosion products accumulation and damage and cracking in the reinforcement surrounding concrete; on the second step a 2D deteriorated structural model is built with the results obtained on the first step of the analysis. The referred methodology combined with a Monte Carlo simulation is then used to compute the failure probability and the reliability index of the structure for different corrosion levels. Finally, structural robustness is assessed using the proposed probabilistic index.

Study of the Reliability of Statistical Timing Analysis for Real-Time Systems

Presented at 23rd International Conference on Real-Time Networks and Systems (RTNS 2015). 4 to 6, Nov, 2015, Main Track. Lille, France.

Reliability of Two Methods for Identifying the Postural Phase of Gait Initiation in Healthy and Post-stroke Subjects

This study aims to compare two methods of assessing the postural phase of gait initiation as to intrasession reliability, in healthy and post-stroke subjects. As a secondary aim, this study aims to analyse anticipatory postural adjustments during gait initiation based on the centre of pressure (CoP) displacements in post-stroke participants. The CoP signal was acquired during gait initiation in fifteen post-stroke subjects and twenty-three healthy controls. Postural phase was identified through a baseline-based method and a maximal displacement based method. In both healthy and post-stroke participants higher intra-class correlation coefficient and lower coefficient of variation values were obtained with the baseline-based method when compared to the maximal displacement based method. Post-stroke participants presented decreased CoP displacement backward and toward the first swing limb compared to controls when the baseline-based method was used. With the maximal displacement based method, there were differences between groups only regarding backward CoP displacement. Postural phase duration in medial-lateral direction was also increased in post-stroke participants when using the maximal displacement based method. The findings obtained indicate that the baseline-based method is more reliable detecting the onset of gait initiation in both groups, while the maximal displacement based method presents greater sensitivity for post-stroke participants.

Reliability analysis of a timber truss system subjected to decay

Assessing the safety of existing timber structures is of paramount importance for taking reliable decisions on repair actions and their extent. The results obtained through semi-probabilistic methods are unrealistic, as the partial safety factors present in codes are calibrated considering the uncertainty present in new structures. In order to overcome these limitations, and also to include the effects of decay in the safety analysis, probabilistic methods, based on Monte-Carlo simulation are applied here to assess the safety of existing timber structures. In particular, the impact of decay on structural safety is analyzed and discussed, using a simple structural model, similar to that used for current semi-probabilistic analysis.

Aircraft Engines Maintenance Costs and Reliability: An Appraisal of the Decision Process to Remove an Engine for a Shop Visit Aiming at Minimum Maintenance Unit Cost

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação.