Appendices - Promoting investment and increasing employment among the economically inactive.

Appendices - Promoting investment and increasing employment among the economically inactive.

U.S. import and export price indexes.

Description based on: 1st quarter 1980; title from caption.

Índices antecedentes e coincidentes da atividade econômica brasileira:uma aplicação da análise de correlação canônica

This paper uses canonical correlation analisys to identify leading and coincident indicators of economic activity in Brazil. ln contrast with the traditional literature on the subject, no restrictions are made regarding the number of common cycles that are necessary to explain the complete cyclical behavior of the coincident variables. For the brazillian data, it is found that three common cycles exhaust all the cyclical pattern of economic activity. Based on the methodology developed here, it is also sugested an alternative chronology of the recent brazillian recessions.

Forecasting and Analyzing Economic Activity with Coincident and Leading Indexes: The Case of Connecticut

We develop coincident and leading employment indexes for the Connecticut economy. Four employment-related variables enter the coincident index while five employment-related variables enter the leading index. The peaks and troughs in the leading index lead the peaks and troughs in the coincident index by an average of 3 and 9 months. Finally, we use the leading index in vector-autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian vector-autoregressive (BVAR) models to forecast the coincident index, nonfarm employment, and the unemployment rate.

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Crisis in the labour markets and countercyclical responses

As predicted in the first bulletin, produced jointly by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO), the impact of the economic crisis continued to be felt in Latin America and the Caribbean during the second quarter of 2009. Regional exports of goods and services contracted in response to sluggish demand on international markets, while remittances and foreign direct investment flows continued to fall, credit lost its buoyancy and the total wage bill diminished, owing mainly to job losses. As a result, the growth forecasts of many countries had to be adjusted downwards. Since the end of 2008, the countries of the region had started to implement countercyclical policies —albeit with significant differences— in an effort to use public spending to counter flagging investment and consumer-spending levels and boost aggregate demand. In this second bulletin, ECLAC and ILO show how the impact of the crisis has deepened in labour markets in the region in the first half of the year and examine existing options and the outcome of public-infrastructure and emergency employment programmes designed to mitigate the impact of the crisis on the labour market. The unemployment rate has risen in practically all countries compared with the previous year and this situation worsened further in the second quarter, when urban unemployment exceeded the rate of the corresponding period in 2008 by 1 percentage point (to stand at 8.5%, up from 7.5%), while in the first quarter, the variation was 0.6 of a percentage point. Labour indicators also point to an increase in informality, a decline in employment with social protection and a decrease in full-time employment. Labour-market trends observed in the first half-year, together with the forecast for a 1.9% decline in regional GDP in 2009, suggest that the average annual rate of urban unemployment in the region will be close to 8.5%. This forecast is slightly less pessimistic than the estimate given in the first bulletin; this is attributable to the fall in the participation rate in the first half-year to levels that are expected to remain low for the rest of the year. Without this reduction in the labour supply, due largely to the “discouragement effect”, the annual average urban unemployment rate would stand at between 8.8% and 8.9%. Thus, the open urban unemployment figure would increase by 2.5 million and if the “discouraged job-seekers” are included, then the number of additional persons not finding a niche in the urban labour market would climb to 3.2 million. In the region, as in the rest of the world, there are signs that the crisis may have reached bottom in the middle of the year. In many countries, production levels have ceased their decline and there are indications of an incipient recovery leading to cautious optimism that there may be a moderate upturn in labour markets in the fourth quarter. The pace of recovery will vary from one country to the next and is expected to be gradual at best. Even with the return to a growth path, there should be no illusion that the labour problems will immediately disappear. First, the recovery in employment is expected to lag behind the upturn in economic activity. Second, since economic growth is likely to remain moderate in the short term and well below the rates recorded between late 2003 and mid-2008, demand for labour and consequently the generation of good-quality jobs will continue to be weak. Thus, countries should not relax their efforts to defend and create decent jobs, but rather should take steps to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of available instruments. In this way, the region will be in a better position not only to confront the challenges of economic recovery, but also to strengthen the foundations for social inclusion and for advancing under more favourable conditions towards fulfilment of the Millennium Development Goals.

Transitional employment aspirations for bridging retirement : implications for training and development

Purpose: The aim of this study was to identify the transitional employment aspirations and training and development needs of older and younger workers at risk of early retirement due to limited education and/or employment in blue collar occupations. Design/ Methodology/ Approach: A computer based methodology was used to evaluate the demographic effects of gender, education level and occupation group on aspirations pertaining to transitional employment and training and development in a sample of over 1000 Local Government employees. Findings: Older blue collar, secondary school educated and younger workers were less interested in transitional employment than older workers with higher levels of education or from white collar backgrounds. The early retirement risk factors of blue collar work and secondary school education had a more limited effect on perceived training and development needs for older workers. However for younger workers, these risk factors provided the impetus to undertake training to move into less physically demanding or more challenging roles as their careers progressed. Practical Implications: Via the identification of education level and occupation types groups’ transitional employment aspirations and perceptions of preparatory training and development within younger and older cohorts, long term strategies to develop and retain staff may be formulated. Originality/ Value: Past studies of transitional employment have rarely included younger workers or older workers at risk of early retirement. Preparatory training and development for transitional employment roles has not been considered in the literature.

Networks in the shadow of markets and hierarchies : calling the shots in the visual effects industry

The nature and organisation of creative industries and the creative economy has received increased attention in recent academic and policy literatures (Florida 2002; Grabher 2002; Scott 2006a). Constituted as one variant on new economy narratives, creativity, alongside knowledge, has been presented as a key competitive asset, Such industries – ranging from advertising, to film and new media – are seen as not merely expanding their scale and scope, but as leading edge proponents of a more general trend towards new forms of organization and economic coordination (Davis and Scase 2000). The idea of network forms (and the consequent displacement of markets and hierarchies) has been at the heart of attempts to differentiate the field economically and spatially. Across both the discussion of production models and work/employment relations is the assertion of the enhanced importance of trust and non-market relations in coordinating structures and practices. This reflects an influential view in sociological, management, geography and other literatures that social life is ‘intrinsically networked’ (Sunley 2008: 12) and that we can confidently use the term ‘network society’ to describe contemporary structures and practices (Castells 1996). Our paper is sceptical of the conceptual and empirical foundations of such arguments. We draw on a number of theoretical resources, including institutional theory, global value chain analysis and labour process theory (see Smith and McKinlay 2009) to explore how a more realistic and grounded analysis of the nature of and limits to networks can be articulated. Given space constraints, we cannot address all the dimensions of network arguments or evidence. Our focus is on inter and intra-firm relations and draws on research into a particular creative industry – visual effects – that is a relatively new though increasingly important global production network. Through this examination a different model of the creative industries and creative work emerges – one in which market rules and patterns of hierarchical interaction structure the behaviour of economic actors and remain a central focus of analysis. The next section outlines and unpacks in more detail arguments concerning the role and significance of networks, markets and hierarchies in production models and work organisation in creative industries and the ‘creative economy’.

Providing youth with skills, training and employment opportunities through ICT Initiatives

Youth population is increasing explosively particularly in developing countries as a result of rapid urbanization. This increase is bringing large number of social and economic problems. For instance the impacts of job and training availability, and the physical, social and cultural quality of urban environment on young people are enormous, and affect their health, lifestyles, and well-being (Gleeson and Sipe 2006). Besides this, globalization and technological developments are affecting youth in urban areas in all parts of the world, both positively and negatively (Robertson 1995). The rapidly advancing information and communications technologies (ICTs) helps in addressing social and economic problems caused by the rapid growth of urban youth populations in developing countries. ICTs offer opportunities to young people for learning, skill development and employment. But there are downsides: young people in many developing countries lack of having broad access to these new technologies, they are vulnerable to global market changes, and ICTs link them into global cultures which promote consumer goods, potentially eroding local cultures and community values (Manacorda and Petrongolo 1999). However we believe that the positives outweigh such negatives. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the world’s young population number more than they ever have. There are over a billion young people between the ages of 15 and 24, which 85 per cent of them live in developing countries and mainly in urban environments. Many of these young people are in the process of making, or have already made, the transition from school to work. During the last two decades all around the world, these young people, as new workers, have faced a number of challenges associated with globalization and technological advances on labour markets (United Nations 2004). The continuous decrease in the manufacturing employment is made many of the young people facing three options: getting jobs in the informal economy with insecurity and poor wages and working conditions, or getting jobs in the low-tier service industries, or developing their vocational skills to benefit from new opportunities in the professional and advanced technical/knowledge sectors. Moreover in developing countries a large portion of young people are not even lucky enough to choose among any of these options, and consequently facing long-term unemployment, which makes them highly vulnerable. The United Nations’ World Youth Employment report (2004) indicates that in almost all countries, females tend to be far more vulnerable than males in terms of long-term unemployment, and young people who have advanced qualifications are far less likely to experience long-term unemployment than others. In the limited opportunities of the formal labour market, those with limited vocational skills resort to forced entrepreneurship and selfemployment in the informal economy, often working for low pay under hazardous conditions, with only few prospects for the future (United Nations 2005a). The International Labour Organization’s research (2004) revealed that the labour force participation rates for young people decreased by almost four per cent (which is equivalent of 88 million young people) between 1993 and 2003. This is largely as a result of the increased number of young people attending school, high overall unemployment rates, and the fact that some young people gave up any hope of finding work and dropped out of the labour market. At the regional level, youth unemployment was highest in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) (25.6%) and sub-Saharan Africa (21%) and lowest in East Asia (7%) and the industrialized economies(13.4%) (International Labour Organization 2004). The youth in economically disadvantaged regions (e.g. the MENA region) face many challenges in education and training that delivers them the right set of skills and knowledge demanded by the labour market. As a consequence, the transition from school to work is mostly unsuccessful and young population end up either unemployed or underemployed in the informal sectors (United Nations 2005b). Unemployment and lack of economic prospects of the urban youth are pushing many of them into criminal acts, excessive alcohol use, substance addiction, and also in many cases resulting in processes of social or political violence (Fernandez-Maldonado 2004; United Nations 2005a). Long-term unemployment leads young people in a process of marginalisation and social exclusion (United Nations 2004). The sustained high rates of long-term youth unemployment have a number of negative effects on societies. First, it results in countries failing to take advantage of the human resources to increase their productive potential, at a time of transition to a globalized world that inexorably demands such leaps in productive capacity. Second, it reinforces the intergenerational transmission of poverty. Third, owing to the discrepancy between more education and exposure to the mass media and fewer employment opportunities, it may encourage the spread of disruptive behaviours, recourse to illegal alternatives for generating income and the loss of basic societal values, all of which erode public safety and social capital. Fourth, it may trigger violent and intractable political conflicts. And lastly, it may exacerbate intergenerational conflicts when young people perceive a lack of opportunity and meritocracy in a system that favours adults who have less formal education and training but more wealth, power and job stability (Hopenhayn 2002). To assist in addressing youth’s skill training and employment problems this paper scrutinises useful international practices, policies, initiatives and programs targeting youth skill training, particularly in ICTs. The MENA national governments and local authorities could consider implementing similar initiative and strategies to address some of the youth employment issues. The broader aim of this paper is to investigate the successful practice and strategies for the information and communication related income generation opportunities for young people to: promote youth entrepreneurship; promote public-private partnerships; target vulnerable groups of young people; narrow digital divide; and put young people in charge. The rest of this paper is organised in five parts. First, the paper provides an overview of the literature on the knowledge economy, skill, education and training issues. Secondly, it reviews the role of ICTs for vocational skill development and employability. Thirdly, it discusses the issues surrounding the development of the digital divide. Fourthly, the paper underlines types and the importance of developing ICT initiatives targeting young people, and reviews some of the successful policy implementations on ICT-based initiatives from both developed and developing countries that offer opportunities to young people for learning, skill development and employment. Then the paper concludes by providing useful generalised recommendations for the MENA region countries and cities in: advocating possible opportunities for ICT generated employment for young people; and discussing how ICT policies could be modified and adopted to meet young people’s needs.

Social citizenship and employment for secondary school students

The project aimed to understand how young people in different socio-demographic categories (age, gender, rurality) conceptualise and negotiate employment relations and the structural mechanisms (education, industry, legislation) through which youth are socialised in employment citizenship. The study extends previous research on youth employment in that it combines data from young people with that from other key actors in education and employment; that is, schools, employers, government, unions and non-government organizations. Despite the disparate nature of these groups there were some common themes regarding young workers. All agreed, for example, that there was a need for a greater level of employment knowledge and understanding among young people and that the current provisions for information dissemination on this subject are inadequate. There was also general consensus that, despite the need for some further clarifications and some potential limitations, the Child Employment Act 2006 (Qld) was beneficial.

Immigrant wage differentials and the role of self-employment in Australia

Immigration has played an important role in the historical development of Australia. Thus, it is no surprise that a large body of empirical work has developed, which focuses upon how migrants fare in the land of opportunity. Much of the literature is comparatively recent, i.e. the last ten years or so, encouraged by the advent of public availability of Australian crosssection micro data. Several different aspects of migrant welfare have been addressed, with major emphasis being placed upon earnings and unemployment experience. For recent examples see Haig (1980), Stromback (1984), Chiswick and Miller (1985), Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) and Beggs and Chapman (1988). The present paper contributes to the literature by providing additional empirical evidence on the native/migrant earnings differential. The data utilised are from the rather neglected Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABS Special Supplementary Survey No.4. 1982, otherwise known as the Family Survey. The paper also examines the importance of distinguishing between the wage and salary sector and the self-employment sector when discussing native/migrant differentials. Separate earnings equations for the two labour market groups are estimated and the native/migrant earnings differential is broken down by employment status. This is a novel application in the Australian context and provides some insight into the earnings of the selfemployed, a group that despite its size (around 20 per cent of the labour force) is frequently ignored by economic research. Most previous empirical research fails to examine the effect of employment status on earnings. Stromback (1984) includes a dummy variable representing self-employment status in an earnings equation estimated over a pooled sample of paid and self-employed workers. The variable is found to be highly significant, which leads Stromback to question the efficacy of including the self-employed in the estimation sample. The suggestion is that part of self-employed earnings represent a return to non-human capital investment, i.e. investments in machinery, buildings etc, the structural determinants of earnings differ significantly from those for paid employees. Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) deal with differences between paid employees and the selfemployed by deleting the latter from their sample. However, deleting the self-employed from the estimation sample may lead to bias in the OLS estimation method (see Heckman 1979). The desirable properties of OLS are dependent upon estimation on a random sample. Thus, the 'Ran-Nam and Nevile results are likely to suffer from bias unless individuals are randomly allocated between self-employment and paid employment. The current analysis extends Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) by explicitly treating the choice of paid employment versus self-employment as being endogenously determined. This allows an explicit test for the appropriateness of deleting self-employed workers from the sample. Earnings equations that are corrected for sample selection are estimated for both natives and migrants in the paid employee sector. The Heckman (1979) two-step estimator is employed. The paper is divided into five major sections. The next section presents the econometric model incorporating the specification of the earnings generating process together with an explicit model determining an individual's employment status. In Section 111 the data are described. Section IV draws together the main econometric results of the paper. First, the probit estimates of the labour market status equation are documented. This is followed by presentation and discussion of the Heckman two-stage estimates of the earnings specification for both native and migrant Australians. Separate earnings equations are estimated for paid employees and the self-employed. Section V documents estimates of the nativelmigrant earnings differential for both categories of employees. To aid comparison with earlier work, the Oaxaca decomposition of the earnings differential for paid-employees is carried out for both the simple OLS regression results as well as the parameter estimates corrected for sample selection effects. These differentials are interpreted and compared with previous Australian findings. A short section concludes the paper.

Employment comovements at the sectoral level over the business cycle

This paper extends the technique suggested by den Haan (2000) to investigate contemporaneous as well as lead and lag correlations among economic data for a range of forecast horizons. The technique provides a richer picture of the economic dynamics generating the data and allows one to investigate which variables lead or lag others and whether the lead or lag pattern is short term or long term in nature. The technique is applied to monthly sectoral level employment data for the U.S. and shows that among the ten industrial sectors followed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, six tend to lead the other four. These six have high correlations indicating that the structural shocks generating the data movements are mostly in common. Among the four lagging industries, some lag by longer intervals than others and some have low correlations with the leading industries indicating that these industries are partially influenced by structural shocks beyond those generating the six leading industries.

Lift and the leading-edge vortex

Flapping wings often feature a leading-edge vortex (LEV) that is thought to enhance the lift generated by the wing. Here the lift on a wing featuring a leading-edge vortex is considered by performing experiments on a translating flat-plate aerofoil that is accelerated from rest in a water towing tank at a fixed angle of attack of 15°. The unsteady flow is investigated with dye flow visualization, particle image velocimetry (PIV) and force measurements. Leading-and trailing-edge vortex circulation and position are calculated directly from the velocity vectors obtained using PIV. In order to determine the most appropriate value of bound circulation, a two-dimensional potential flow model is employed and flow fields are calculated for a range of values of bound circulation. In this way, the value of bound circulation is selected to give the best fit between the experimental velocity field and the potential flow field. Early in the trajectory, the value of bound circulation calculated using this potential flow method is in accordance with Kelvin's circulation theorem, but differs from the values predicted by Wagner's growth of bound circulation and the Kutta condition. Later the Kutta condition is established but the bound circulation remains small; most of the circulation is contained instead in the LEVs. The growth of wake circulation can be approximated by Wagner's circulation curve. Superimposing the non-circulatory lift, approximated from the potential flow model, and Wagner's lift curve gives a first-order approximation of the measured lift. Lift is generated by inertial effects and the slow buildup of circulation, which is contained in shed vortices rather than bound circulation. © 2013 Cambridge University Press.

Self-directedness, personality type and success in self- employment

The new economy has spirited a transformation ofwork organizations from big business structures into smaller, more flexible enterprises, many of which are launched as self-employment initiatives. The growing trend towards increasing selfemployment in Canada demands aeritical review of how educational programs support and encourage entrepreneurship and self-employment opportunities for students ofpost-secondary and adult training programs. The focus ofthis study was threefold. First, the study examined whether a relationship exists between self-directedness and success in self-employment. Secondly, the purpose of this research was to determine whether a relationship exists between psychological type as defined by Jung and success in selfemployment. Finally, this research effort attempted to develop a model for identifying individual potential for self-employment based on combined factors of self-directedness and psychological type. Success was measured in three stages: 1) Did the subject start a selfemployment initiative? 2) Did the business survive six months? 3) Did the business survive one year? The research went beyond classroom training activities to determine whether individuals actually started a business enterprise while participating ina self-employment program designed for individuals who were unemployed. Given that many people initiate a self-employment venture.without actually operating the business beyond the initial start-up, this research effort measured success based on a commitment of at least one year to the selfemployment initiative. Results ofthe study revealed that individuals with a high level of selfdirected learning readiness tended to be more likely to succeed in business in terms ofbusiness starts, survival for six months, and survival for one year. In addition, it was discovered that individuals who were extraverted intuitive types succeeded more often in business at all three levels than any other type. These findings supported a model using the SDLRS and the PET Type Check as predictors for success in entrepreneurial ventures.