Directed search with real options

While search is normally modelled by economists purely in terms of decisions over making observations, this paper models it as a process in which information is gained through feedback from innovatory product launches. The information gained can then be used to decide whether to exercise real options. In the model the initial decisions involve a product design and the scale of production capacity. There are then real options to change these factors based on what is learned. The case of launching product variants in parallel is also considered. Under ‘true’ uncertainty, the model can be seen in terms of heuristic decision-making based on subjective beliefs with limited foresight. Search costs, the values of the real options, beliefs, and the cost of capital are all shown to be significant in determining the search path.

Selecting object pairs for action: is the active object always first?

Perception is linked to action via two routes: a direct route based on affordance information in the environment and an indirect route based on semantic knowledge about objects. The present study explored the factors modulating the recruitment of the two routes, in particular which factors affecting the selection of paired objects. In Experiment 1, we presented real objects among semantically related or unrelated distracters. Participants had to select two objects that can interact. The presence of distracters affected selection times, but not the semantic relations of the objects with the distracters. Furthermore, participants first selected the active object (e.g. teaspoon) with their right hand, followed by the passive object (e.g. mug), often with their left hand. In Experiment 2, we presented pictures of the same objects with no hand grip, congruent or incongruent hand grip. Participants had to decide whether the two objects can interact. Action decisions were faster when the presentation of the active object preceded the presentation of the passive object, and when the grip was congruent. Interestingly, participants were slower when the objects were semantically but not functionally related; this effect increased with congruently gripped objects. Our data showed that action decisions in the presence of strong affordance cues (real objects, pictures of congruently gripped objects) relied on sensory-motor representation, supporting the direct route from perception-to-action that bypasses semantic knowledge. However, in the case of weak affordance cues (pictures), semantic information interfered with action decisions, indicating that semantic knowledge impacts action decisions. The data support the dual-route account from perception-to-action.

Intressenters agerande – vid ett undantag från revisionsplikt för små aktiebolag

Ever since Sweden joined EU on the 1st of January 1995 the auditing is regulated not only by our Swedish laws but also by EG:s directives. In the fourth directive the member states are given a possibility to dispense small companies from the duty to audit the accounts. It is up to every member state to decide whether they want to dispense the small companies or not and today Sweden is one of few member states who does not.The purpose of this essay was to describe how lenders and Skatteverket will act in case of a dispensation for small companies from the duty to audit the accounts. The study has been carried out by interviewing four lenders and Skatteverket.The study shows that the lenders and Skatteverkets acting in case of a dispensation for small companies from the duty to audit the accounts will part from each others. While the lenders stand before a big change Skatteverkets work will be next to unaltered.Half the lenders think that they will continue to demand that the companies’ accounts be audited. The other half thinks that they will adjust their demands that the accounts be audited to each specific company. Skatteverket trusts in the increasing number of samples to guarantee the quality with the companies’ financial reports.

What affects recognition most – wrong wordstress or wrong word accent?

In an attempt to find out which of the two Swedish prosodic contrasts of 1) wordstress pattern and 2) tonal word accent category has the greatest communicative weight, a lexical decision experiment was conducted: in one part word stress pattern was changed from trochaic to iambic, and in the other part trochaic accentII words were changed to accent I.Native Swedish listeners were asked to decide whether the distorted words werereal words or ‘non-words’. A clear tendency is that listeners preferred to give more‘non-word’ responses when the stress pattern was shifted, compared to when wordaccent category was shifted. This could have implications for priority of phonological features when teaching Swedish as a second language.

The relative perceptual weight of two Swedish prosodic contrasts

Abstract. In addition to 9 vowel and 18 consonant phonemes, Swedish has three prosodic phonemic contrasts: word stress, quantity and tonal word accent. There are also examples of distinctive phrase or sentence stress, where a verb can be followed by either an unstressed preposition or a stressed particle. This study focuses on word level and more specifically on word stress and tonal word accent in disyllabic words. When making curriculums for second language learners, teachers are helped by knowing which phonetic or phonological features are more or less crucial for the intelligibility of speech and there are some structural and anecdotal evidence that word stress should play a more important role for intelligibility of Swedish, than the tonal word accent. The Swedish word stress is about prominence contrasts between syllables, mainly signaled by syllable duration, while the tonal word accent is signaled mainly by pitch contour. The word stress contrast, as in armen [´arːmən] ‘the arm’ - armén [ar´meːn] ‘the army’, the first word trochaic and the second iambic, is present in all regional varieties of Swedish, and realized with roughly the same acoustic cues, while the tonal word accent, as in anden [´anːdən] ‘the duck’ - anden [`anːdən] ‘the spirit’ is absent in some dialects (as well as in singing), and also signaled with a variety of tonal patterns depending on region. The present study aims at comparing the respective perceptual weight of the two mentioned contrasts. Two lexical decision tests were carried out where in total 34 native Swedish listeners should decide whether a stimulus was a real word or a non-word. Real words of all mentioned categories were mixed with nonsense words and words that were mispronounced with opposite stress pattern or opposite tonal word accent category. The results show that distorted word stress caused more non-word judgments and more loss, than distorted word accent. Our conclusion is that intelligibility of Swedish is more sensitive to distorted word stress pattern than to distorted tonal word accent pattern. This is in compliance with the structural arguments presented above, and also with our own intuition.

Avaliação de projetos na presença de volatilidade: estudo de caso de empresas no setor de telecomunicações

Quando as empresas decidem se devem ou não investir em determinado projeto de investimentos a longo prazo (horizonte de 5 a 10 anos), algumas metodologias alternativas ao Fluxo de Caixa Descontado (FCD) podem se tornar úteis tanto para confirmar a viabilidade do negócio como para indicar o melhor momento para iniciar o Empreendimento. As análises que levam em conta a incerteza dos fluxos de caixa futuros e flexibilidade na data de início do projeto podem ser construídos com a abordagem estocástica, usando metodologias como a solução de equações diferenciais que descrevem o movimento browniano. Sob determinadas condições, as oportunidades de investimentos em projetos podem ser tratados como se fossem opções reais de compra, sem data de vencimento, como no modelo proposto por McDonald-Siegel (1986), para a tomada de decisões e momento ótimo para o investimento. Este trabalho analisa a viabilidade de investimentos no mercado de telecomunicações usando modelos não determinísticos, onde a variável mais relevante é a dispersão dos retornos, ou seja, que a variância representa o risco associado a determinado empreendimento.

Why do bidders drop out from a sequential auction

In actual sequential auctions, 1) bidders typically incur a cost in continuing from one sale to the next, and 2) bidders decide whether or not to continue. To investigate the question "why do bidders drop out," we define a sequential auction model with continuation costs and an endogenously determined number of bidders at each sale, and we characterize the equilibria in this model. Simple examples illustrate the effect of several possible changes to this model.

A roughly smooth optimal consumption path: smoothing the rough annuity puzzle

A inconsistência entre a teoria e o comportamento empírico dos agentes no que tange ao mercado privado de pensões tem se mostrado um dos mais resistentes puzzles presentes na literatura econômica. Em modelos de otimização intertemporal de consumo e poupança sob incerteza em relação ao tempo de vida dos agentes, anuidades são ativos dominantes, anulando ou restringindo fortemente a demanda por ativos cujos retornos não estão relacionados à probabilidade de sobrevivência. Na prática, entretanto, consumidores são extremamente céticos em relação às anuidades. Em oposição ao seguro contra longevidade oferecido pelas anuidades, direitos sobre esses ativos - essencialmente ilíquidos - cessam no caso de morte do titular. Nesse sentido, choques não seguráveis de liquidez e a presença de bequest motives foram consideravelmente explorados como possíveis determinantes da baixa demanda verificada. Apesar dos esforços, o puzzle persiste. Este trabalho amplia a dominância teórica das anuidades sobre ativos não contingentes em mercados incompletos; total na ausência de bequest motives, e parcial, quando os agentes se preocupam com possíveis herdeiros. Em linha com a literatura, simulações numéricas atestam que uma parcela considerável do portfolio ótimo dos agentes seria constituída de anuidades mesmo diante de choques de liquidez, bequest motives, e preços não atuarialmente justos. Em relação a um aspecto relativamente negligenciado pela academia, mostramos que o tempo ótimo de conversão de poupança em anuidades está diretamente relacionado à curva salarial dos agentes. Finalmente, indicamos que, caso as preferências dos agentes sejam tais que o nível de consumo ótimo decaia com a idade, a demanda por anuidades torna-se bastante sensível ao sobrepreço (em relação àquele atuarialmente justo) praticado pela indústria, chegando a níveis bem mais compatíveis com a realidade empírica.

Sequential auctions with continuation costs

In actual sequential auctions, 1) bidders typically incur a cost in continuing from one sale to the next, and 2) bidders decide whether or not to continue. To investigate the question "when do bidders drop out," we define a sequential auction model with continuation costs and an endogenously determined number of bidders at each sale, and we characterize the equilibria in this modele Simple examples illustrate the effect of several possible changes to this modele

Flexible information acquisition and optimal Tobin tax in tractable dynamic global games

My dissertation focuses on dynamic aspects of coordination processes such as reversibility of early actions, option to delay decisions, and learning of the environment from the observation of other people’s actions. This study proposes the use of tractable dynamic global games where players privately and passively learn about their actions’ true payoffs and are able to adjust early investment decisions to the arrival of new information to investigate the consequences of the presence of liquidity shocks to the performance of a Tobin tax as a policy intended to foster coordination success (chapter 1), and the adequacy of the use of a Tobin tax in order to reduce an economy’s vulnerability to sudden stops (chapter 2). Then, it analyzes players’ incentive to acquire costly information in a sequential decision setting (chapter 3). In chapter 1, a continuum of foreign agents decide whether to enter or not in an investment project. A fraction λ of them are hit by liquidity restrictions in a second period and are forced to withdraw early investment or precluded from investing in the interim period, depending on the actions they chose in the first period. Players not affected by the liquidity shock are able to revise early decisions. Coordination success is increasing in the aggregate investment and decreasing in the aggregate volume of capital exit. Without liquidity shocks, aggregate investment is (in a pivotal contingency) invariant to frictions like a tax on short term capitals. In this case, a Tobin tax always increases success incidence. In the presence of liquidity shocks, this invariance result no longer holds in equilibrium. A Tobin tax becomes harmful to aggregate investment, which may reduces success incidence if the economy does not benefit enough from avoiding capital reversals. It is shown that the Tobin tax that maximizes the ex-ante probability of successfully coordinated investment is decreasing in the liquidity shock. Chapter 2 studies the effects of a Tobin tax in the same setting of the global game model proposed in chapter 1, with the exception that the liquidity shock is considered stochastic, i.e, there is also aggregate uncertainty about the extension of the liquidity restrictions. It identifies conditions under which, in the unique equilibrium of the model with low probability of liquidity shocks but large dry-ups, a Tobin tax is welfare improving, helping agents to coordinate on the good outcome. The model provides a rationale for a Tobin tax on economies that are prone to sudden stops. The optimal Tobin tax tends to be larger when capital reversals are more harmful and when the fraction of agents hit by liquidity shocks is smaller. Chapter 3 focuses on information acquisition in a sequential decision game with payoff complementar- ity and information externality. When information is cheap relatively to players’ incentive to coordinate actions, only the first player chooses to process information; the second player learns about the true payoff distribution from the observation of the first player’s decision and follows her action. Miscoordination requires that both players privately precess information, which tends to happen when it is expensive and the prior knowledge about the distribution of the payoffs has a large variance.

Cooperação em sagüis comuns callithrix jacchus: condições e restrições

The cooperative behavior is no longer a dilemma for the theory of evolution, since there are models that explain the evolution of this behavior by means of natural selection at the individual level. However, there have been few studies on the proximal factors that interfere with cooperative behavior. In the study of the influence of cognition on cooperation, many authors have been interested in situations in which individuals decide whether to act cooperatively and select partners with different qualities to cooperate. Of the factors studied, we highlight the need for understanding the apparatus and communication between partners to the occurrence of cooperation. Recently, highlight is the proposal that the ability to cooperate would be greater in species with cooperative breeding system. Thus, the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus) is a New World monkey which stands as a valuable species for this type of study because it presents cooperative actions in nature, such as sharing food and protection of the community territory. Our experiment investigated whether common marmosets unrelated females (n = 6) were able to cooperate using an electrical and a mechanical apparatus, if this cooperation is a byproduct of individual actions or involve social attention, if it occurs inter-individual variation in the use of devices and formation of roles (producer / scrounger) in dyads. We use the number of rewards obtained by animals (Ratio of Correct Pulls) as indicators of cooperation and glances for partners (Ratio of Correct Glances) as indicators of social attention and communication. The results indicate that the type of apparatus was not a constraint for the occurrence of cooperation between the marmosets, but still has not been verified formation of roles in the dyads. The performance of animals in the two devices showed a large variation in the learning time, not having relationship with the performance in the tests phase. In both devices the level of social glances at control phases were casually correlated with any other phase, but the data showed that there was not social attention, that is, the monkeys realized that they gave food to the partners, but the partners did

On data-centric misbehavior detection in VANETs

Detecting misbehavior (such as transmissions of false information) in vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) is a very important problem with wide range of implications, including safety related and congestion avoidance applications. We discuss several limitations of existing misbehavior detection schemes (MDS) designed for VANETs. Most MDS are concerned with detection of malicious nodes. In most situations, vehicles would send wrong information because of selfish reasons of their owners, e.g. for gaining access to a particular lane. It is therefore more important to detect false information than to identify misbehaving nodes. We introduce the concept of data-centric misbehavior detection and propose algorithms which detect false alert messages and misbehaving nodes by observing their actions after sending out the alert messages. With the data-centric MDS, each node can decide whether an information received is correct or false. The decision is based on the consistency of recent messages and new alerts with reported and estimated vehicle positions. No voting or majority decisions is needed, making our MDS resilient to Sybil attacks. After misbehavior is detected, we do not revoke all the secret credentials of misbehaving nodes, as done in most schemes. Instead, we impose fines on misbehaving nodes (administered by the certification authority), discouraging them to act selfishly. This reduces the computation and communication costs involved in revoking all the secret credentials of misbehaving nodes. © 2011 IEEE.

Tomographic index as auxiliary criteria for surgery indication in fracture dislocation of acetabulum posterior wall

There are situations which the tomographic exam is done on the affected hip or situations where the contralateral hip presents abnormalities that make it impossible to compare. In this study we aimed to evaluate a tomographic index that does not require comparison between the both hips. Twenty two patients with unilateral acetabular fracture dislocation with fracture of posterior wall were studied. We established the relationship between the remaining posterior wall and the femoral head diameter (head/wall index-H/W index). We evaluated 45 two-dimensional computed tomography scan in normal hips and established the H/W index. In 45 normal hips we simulated a posterior wall fracture with involvement of 25% and 30% of the posterior wall and calculated the H/W index. We divided into five groups with five different H/W index (fractured group with non surgical treatment; fractured group; normal group; normal group with simulated fracture of 25% and; 30% of the posterior wall). 2.4 was the lowest limit of confidence interval of the group with 25% of the posterior wall fracture. When we analyzed the confidence interval of the 30% fracture group the upper limit of the confidence interval was 2.7, close to the lower limit of the surgical group that was 2.9. Thus, we suggest the 2.4 the H/W index limit as an auxiliary criteria to indicate whether or not to operate. H/W index is helpful to decide whether or not surgery indication in the fracture dislocation of the posterior wall of the acetabulum. © 2012 Fujiki et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Inconsistent-tolerant base revision through Argument Theory Change

Reasoning and change over inconsistent knowledge bases (KBs) is of utmost relevance in areas like medicine and law. Argumentation may bring the possibility to cope with both problems. Firstly, by constructing an argumentation framework (AF) from the inconsistent KB, we can decide whether to accept or reject a certain claim through the interplay among arguments and counterarguments. Secondly, by handling dynamics of arguments of the AF, we might deal with the dynamics of knowledge of the underlying inconsistent KB. Dynamics of arguments has recently attracted attention and although some approaches have been proposed, a full axiomatization within the theory of belief revision was still missing. A revision arises when we want the argumentation semantics to accept an argument. Argument Theory Change (ATC) encloses the revision operators that modify the AF by analyzing dialectical trees-arguments as nodes and attacks as edges-as the adopted argumentation semantics. In this article, we present a simple approach to ATC based on propositional KBs. This allows to manage change of inconsistent KBs by relying upon classical belief revision, although contrary to it, consistency restoration of the KB is avoided. Subsequently, a set of rationality postulates adapted to argumentation is given, and finally, the proposed model of change is related to the postulates through the corresponding representation theorem. Though we focus on propositional logic, the results can be easily extended to more expressive formalisms such as first-order logic and description logics, to handle evolution of ontologies.

Identification of target genes of the T-box proteins in Drosophila melanogaster

In a prior bioinformatic analysis by Hüyseyin Binbas, potential Tbx targets sequences in wing-related genes have been identified. Guided by this information, enhancer trap/reporter lacZ insertions were characterized by X-gal staining first in wildtype and then in l(1)omb imaginal discs.rnIn several lines I observed an increase in reporter expression in a l(1)omb mutant background. Since Omb is assumed to function predominantly as a transcriptional repressor, this may indicate direct regulation. Repression by Omb was observed e.g. for brk and tkv. These genes are negatively regulated by Dpp, while omb is induced by Dpp. Omb which mediates the effects of Dpp on proliferation could, thus, also mediate the Dpp effect on patterning of the wing disc. However, brk and tkv were not completely derepressed in l(1)omb indicating that Dpp represses these genes also by an Omb-independent mechanism.rnMore frequently I observed loss of reporter expression in an l(1)omb mutant background. In these cases, regulation by Omb presumably is indirect. For example, STAT92E-lacZ expression in the wildtype eye was symmetrically expressed at the dorsal and ventral margins. In l(1)omb, ventral expression was selectively lost. Loss of omb is known to cause ventral overproliferation of the eye by activation of the Jak/STAT pathway. STAT92E expression is negatively regulated by Jak/STAT signaling suggesting that loss of omb activates Jak/STAT further upstream in the pathway.rnRegional overproliferation of eye and wing in the l(1)omb mutant background proved a complicating issue in the search for Omb targets. This effect made it difficult to decide whether an expanded reporter expression pattern was due to tissue expansion or reporter gene derepression. For instance hth-lacZ appeared to expand along the ventral eye disc margin in l(1)omb. Without addtional experiments it cannot be concluded whether this is due to de-repression or to activation in association with the proliferative state. Parallel to my experiments, evidence accumulated in our laboratory that loss of omb may attenuate Wg and Hegehog signaling. Since these diffusible proteins are the main patterning molecules in the wing imaginal disc, with dpp being downstream of Hh, many of the observed effects could be secondary to reduced Wg and Hh activity. Examples are ab-lacZ, Dll-lacZ and vgBE-lacZ (reduced expression on the dorso-ventral boundary) and inv-lacZ (late larval expression in the anterior wing disc compartment is lost) or sal-lacZ. Epistasis experiment will be required to clarifiy these issues.rnFurthermore, loss of omb appeared to induce cell fate changes. It was reported previously that in an omb null mutant, the dorsal determinant apterous (ap) is ectopically expressed in the ventral compartment (an effect I did not observe with the strongly hypomorphic l(1)omb15, indicating strong dose dependence). Ventral repression of ap is maintained by epigenetic mechanisms. The patchy and variable nature of ectopic expression of ap or grn-1.1-lacZ points to an effect of omb on epigenetic stability.rnIn the second part of my thesis, an analysis of Omb expression in the Drosophila embryonic ventral nervous system was performed. Omb was found co-expressed with Eve in the medial aCC and RP2 motorneurons as well as the fpCC interneuron and the mediolateral CQ neurons. Additionally, Omb was detected in the Eg positive NB7-3 GW serotonergic motoneuron and the N2-4 neurons. Omb was not found in Repo positive glial cells. During embryonic stage 14, Omb showed some coepression with Dpn or Pros. At the embryonic stage 16, Omb was expressed in minor subset of Mid and Wg positive cells.