On the strategic equivalence of multiple-choice test scoring rules

A disadvantage of multiple-choice tests is that students have incentives to guess. To discourage guessing, it is common to use scoring rules that either penalize wrong answers or reward omissions. These scoring rules are considered equivalent in psychometrics, although experimental evidence has not always been consistent with this claim. We model students' decisions and show, first, that equivalence holds only under risk neutrality and, second, that the two rules can be modified so that they become equivalent even under risk aversion. This paper presents the results of a field experiment in which we analyze the decisions of subjects taking multiple-choice exams. The evidence suggests that differences between scoring rules are due to risk aversion as theory predicts. We also find that the number of omitted items depends on the scoring rule, knowledge, gender and other covariates.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Explosive Hyperinflation, Inflation Tax Laffer Curve and Modelling the use of Money

This paper analyzes the existence of an inflation tax Laffer curve (ITLC) in the context of two standard optimizing monetary models: a cash-in-advance model and a money in the utility function model. Agents’ preferences are characterized in the two models by a constant relative risk aversion utility function. Explosive hyperinflation rules out the presence of an ITLC. In the context of a cash-in-advance economy, this paper shows that explosive hyperinflation is feasible and thus an ITLC is ruled out whenever the relative risk aversion parameter is greater than one. In the context of an optimizing model with money in the utility function, this paper firstly shows that an ITLC is ruled out. Moreover, it is shown that explosive hyperinflations are more likely when the transactions role of money is more important. However, hyperinflationary paths are not feasible in this context unless certain restrictions are imposed.

Prosocial norms and degree heterogeneity in social networks

We provide empirical evidence to support the claims that social diversity promotes prosocial behavior. We elicit a real-life social network and its members’ adherence to a social norm, namely inequity aversion. The data reveal a positive relationship between subjects’ prosociality and several measures of centrality. This result is in line with the theoretical literature that relates the evolution of social norms to the structure of social interactions and argues that central individuals are crucial for the emergence of prosocial behavior.

Choice under Risk : Theory and Applications

Es útil para estudiantes de postgrado (Master y Doctorado) en cursos de Economía o de Microeconomía en los que se analicen problemas de Decisión en condiciones de Riesgo o Incertidumbre. El documento comienza explicando la Teoría de la Utilidad Esperada. A continuación se estudian la aversión al riesgo, los coeficientes de aversión absoluta y relativa al riesgo, la relación “más averso que” entre agentes económicos y los efectos riqueza sobre las decisiones en algunas relaciones de preferencia utilizadas frecuentemente en el análisis económico. La sección 4 se centra en la comparación entre alternativas arriesgadas en términos de rendimiento y riesgo, considerando la dominancia estocástica de primer y segundo orden y algunas extensiones posteriores de esas relaciones de orden. El documento concluye con doce ejercicios resueltos en los que se aplican los conceptos y resultados expuestos en las secciones anteriores a problemas de decisión en varios contextos

Cooperative and market-based solutions to pollution abatement problems

This work concerns itself with the possibility of solutions, both cooperative and market based, to pollution abatement problems. In particular, we are interested in pollutant emissions in Southern California and possible solutions to the abatement problems enumerated in the 1990 Clean Air Act. A tradable pollution permit program has been implemented to reduce emissions, creating property rights associated with various pollutants.

Before we discuss the performance of market-based solutions to LA's pollution woes, we consider the existence of cooperative solutions. In Chapter 2, we examine pollutant emissions as a trans boundary public bad. We show that for a class of environments in which pollution moves in a bi-directional, acyclic manner, there exists a sustainable coalition structure and associated levels of emissions. We do so via a new core concept, one more appropriate to modeling cooperative emissions agreements (and potential defection from them) than the standard definitions.

However, this leaves the question of implementing pollution abatement programs unanswered. While the existence of a cost-effective permit market equilibrium has long been understood, the implementation of such programs has been difficult. The design of Los Angeles' REgional CLean Air Incentives Market (RECLAIM) alleviated some of the implementation problems, and in part exacerbated them. For example, it created two overlapping cycles of permits and two zones of permits for different geographic regions. While these design features create a market that allows some measure of regulatory control, they establish a very difficult trading environment with the potential for inefficiency arising from the transactions costs enumerated above and the illiquidity induced by the myriad assets and relatively few participants in this market.

It was with these concerns in mind that the ACE market (Automated Credit Exchange) was designed. The ACE market utilizes an iterated combined-value call market (CV Market). Before discussing the performance of the RECLAIM program in general and the ACE mechanism in particular, we test experimentally whether a portfolio trading mechanism can overcome market illiquidity. Chapter 3 experimentally demonstrates the ability of a portfolio trading mechanism to overcome portfolio rebalancing problems, thereby inducing sufficient liquidity for markets to fully equilibrate.

With experimental evidence in hand, we consider the CV Market's performance in the real world. We find that as the allocation of permits reduces to the level of historical emissions, prices are increasing. As of April of this year, prices are roughly equal to the cost of the Best Available Control Technology (BACT). This took longer than expected, due both to tendencies to mis-report emissions under the old regime, and abatement technology advances encouraged by the program. Vve also find that the ACE market provides liquidity where needed to encourage long-term planning on behalf of polluting facilities.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Essays in Behavioral Decision Theory

This thesis studies decision making under uncertainty and how economic agents respond to information. The classic model of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating is often at odds with empirical and experimental results; people exhibit systematic biases in information processing and often exhibit aversion to ambiguity. The aim of this work is to develop simple models that capture observed biases and study their economic implications.

In the first chapter I present an axiomatic model of cognitive dissonance, in which an agent's response to information explicitly depends upon past actions. I introduce novel behavioral axioms and derive a representation in which beliefs are directionally updated. The agent twists the information and overweights states in which his past actions provide a higher payoff. I then characterize two special cases of the representation. In the first case, the agent distorts the likelihood ratio of two states by a function of the utility values of the previous action in those states. In the second case, the agent's posterior beliefs are a convex combination of the Bayesian belief and the one which maximizes the conditional value of the previous action. Within the second case a unique parameter captures the agent's sensitivity to dissonance, and I characterize a way to compare sensitivity to dissonance between individuals. Lastly, I develop several simple applications and show that cognitive dissonance contributes to the equity premium and price volatility, asymmetric reaction to news, and belief polarization.

The second chapter characterizes a decision maker with sticky beliefs. That is, a decision maker who does not update enough in response to information, where enough means as a Bayesian decision maker would. This chapter provides axiomatic foundations for sticky beliefs by weakening the standard axioms of dynamic consistency and consequentialism. I derive a representation in which updated beliefs are a convex combination of the prior and the Bayesian posterior. A unique parameter captures the weight on the prior and is interpreted as the agent's measure of belief stickiness or conservatism bias. This parameter is endogenously identified from preferences and is easily elicited from experimental data.

The third chapter deals with updating in the face of ambiguity, using the framework of Gilboa and Schmeidler. There is no consensus on the correct way way to update a set of priors. Current methods either do not allow a decision maker to make an inference about her priors or require an extreme level of inference. In this chapter I propose and axiomatize a general model of updating a set of priors. A decision maker who updates her beliefs in accordance with the model can be thought of as one that chooses a threshold that is used to determine whether a prior is plausible, given some observation. She retains the plausible priors and applies Bayes' rule. This model includes generalized Bayesian updating and maximum likelihood updating as special cases.

O que faz do conselheiro Aires um cético?

Há um consenso nos meios crítico e acadêmico de que Joaquim Maria Machado de Assis é o maior ficcionista brasileiro. Além da qualidade inegável, sua ficção é notável por sua dimensão, atingindo uma dezena de romances e mais de duzentos contos. Com esta união singular entre extensão e qualidade, a obra machadiana acumulou a maior fortuna crítica no Brasil e uma das maiores da literatura universal. Ainda assim, sua fortuna é a que mais cresce no Brasil. Diante de tamanha dedicação dos estudiosos, em que seria relevante a apresentação de mais uma dissertação sobre o Bruxo do Cosme Velho? Acreditando que, apesar do tamanho da investigação que já se fez sobre Machado, alguns dos aspectos cruciais da vida e da obra do escritor ainda não foram devidamente elucidados, este trabalho nasce com a intenção de contribuir para a diminuição dessa lacuna. Um desses aspectos é o conteúdo filosófico da ficção machadiana. Durante muitas décadas, a ideia de que Machado de Assis se alinhara filosoficamente ao pessimismo foi hegemônica. Entretanto, muitas características da ficção machadiana, tais como o humour e a ironia, podem ser sinais de outra orientação filosófica: o ceticismo. A identificação entre Machado e ceticismo não é, entretanto, algo novo, mas durante a maior parte do tempo, a crítica identificou o ceticismo de Machado com a acepção popular do termo: descrença no campo metafísico e desengano no campo político-social. Este modo de ver o ceticismo acaba por aproximar o termo, e reaproximar Machado de Assis, ao pessimismo. Por outro lado, há algumas décadas, alguns estudiosos brasileiros começaram a verificar que a filosofia da ficção machadiana estaria de fato associada ao ceticismo, mas a outro tipo de ceticismo, o ceticismo pirrônico ou filosófico, iniciado com Pirro de Elis, filósofo grego que viveu entre 360 e 270 a.C., e estabelecido pelos escritos de Sexto Empírico, filósofo e médico do século 2. Fazendo jus à origem grega do termo skepticós, aquele que investiga, o ceticismo pirrônico prima não pela descrença, mas pela busca contínua da verdade. Esta busca se mantém indeterminada em virtude da limitação dos sentidos e do pensamento humanos. Não podemos alcançar a verdade das coisas, mas apenas descrever como elas aparentam. Esta impossibilidade não conduz o pirrônico ao pessimismo, o conduz, ao contrário, à tranquilidade, pois ele aceita a sua limitação, não fica se debatendo contra ela. Na ficção machadiana, o conselheiro Aires é o personagem cético por excelência, a começar pelo tão famoso tédio à controvérsia. Entretanto, apesar da semelhança entre a ficção de Machado de Assis e a filosofia cética, há um problema a ser enfrentado: como o escritor poderia ter criado um personagem tão próximo do pirronismo se Machado nunca chegou a ler uma página de Sexto Empírico?

Systematic liquidity: commonality and inter-temporal variation in the Portuguese stock market

[EN] The aim of this paper is to study systematic liquidity at the Euronext Lisbon Stock Exchange. The motivation for this research is provided by the growing interest in financial literature about stock liquidity and the implications of commonality in liquidity for asset pricing since it could represent a source of non-diversifiable risk. Namely, it is analysed whether there exist common factors that drive the variation in individual stock liquidity and the causes of the inter-temporal variation of aggregate liquidity. Monthly data for the period between January 1988 and December 2011 is used to compute some of the most used proxies for liquidity: bid-ask spreads, turnover rate, trading volume, proportion of zero returns and the illiquidity ratio. Following Chordia et al. (2000) methodology, some evidence of commonality in liquidity is found in the Portuguese stock market when the proportion of zero returns is used as a measure of liquidity. In relation to the factors that drive the inter-temporal variation of the Portuguese stock market liquidity, the results obtained within a VAR framework suggest that changes in real economy activity, monetary policy (proxied by changes in monetary aggregate M1) and stock market returns play an important role as determinants of commonality in liquidity.

Elements of Decision under Uncertainty with Applications

This work presents the basic elements for the analysis of decision under uncertainty: Expected Utility Theory and its citicisms and risk aversion and its measurement. The concepts of certainty equivalent, risk premium, absolute risk aversion and relative risk aversion, and the "more risk averse than" relation are discussed. The work is completed with several applications of decision making under uncertainty to different economic problems: investment in risky assets and portfolio selection, risk sharing, investment to reduce risk, insurance, taxes and income underreporting, deposit insurance and the value of information.

Robust design optimization of gas turbine compression systems

Gas turbine compression systems are required to perform adequately over a range of operating conditions. Complexity has encouraged the conventional design process for compressors to focus initially on one operating point, usually the most commonor arduous, to draw up an outline design. Generally, only as this initial design is refined is its offdesign performance assessed in detail. Not only does this necessarily introduce a potentially costly and timeconsuming extra loop in the design process, but it also may result in a design whose offdesign behavior is suboptimal. Aversion of nonintrusive polynomial chaos was previously developed in which a set of orthonormal polynomials was generated to facilitate a rapid analysis of robustness in the presence of generic uncertainties with good accuracy. In this paper, this analysis method is incorporated in real time into the design process for the compression system of a three-shaft gas turbine aeroengine. This approach to robust optimization is shown to lead to designs that exhibit consistently improved system performance with reduced sensitivity to offdesign operation.

Camino a la jubilación: alquiler versus compra de vivienda

Las previsiones del número de personas mayores en España para el año 2050 se han disparado. Un aumento de la población mayor que supondrá grandes dificultades para un sistema público de pensiones cuya viabilidad está en duda. España es un país en el que la cultura del ahorro a través de la vivienda en propiedad está muy arraigada. Sin embargo, en la actualidad existe un auge de las personas que optan por el alquiler como forma de residencia. Por ello, durante este trabajo se analiza la vida de una persona que optará bien por la compra de una vivienda o bien por el alquiler de una vivienda para complementar su futura pensión pública. Mediante la compra de vivienda, y una vez amortizado el préstamo hipotecario que deberá soportar, se le presentaran los productos denominados vivienda pensión e hipoteca inversa para financiar las posibles necesidades que puedan surgir en su jubilación. Por otro lado, el arrendatario optara por un producto de ahorro a largo plazo, cuya rentabilidad variara a lo largo del tiempo en función de su aversión al riesgo, de manera que llegado el momento de la jubilación disponga de un capital.

Homens idosos em programas de esporte e lazer

O cotidiano dos projetos sociais sobre esporte e lazer revela grupos de participantes que se identificam com as atividades lá desenvolvidas. Por outro lado, há pessoas avessas às atividades dos projetos, porque normalmente alguma característica as deixa desconfortáveis. Considerando essa realidade, o estudo procurou identificar os fatores que interferem na participação de homens idosos em programas de esporte e lazer. O estudo foi aplicado no bairro de Piedade, zona norte da cidade do Rio de Janeiro, onde foram entrevistados 10 idosos que residem próximo do projeto SUDERJ em FORMA. Para a coleta, processamento e apresentação dos dados utilizamos a abordagem radical das representações sociais proposta por Votre (2009), a partir do Discurso do Sujeito Coletivo (DSC) de Lefebvre et al (2007). O modelo de análise delineado valoriza tanto as pessoas individuais, em suas falas singulares, quanto a reunião dessas pessoas, que falam como grupo sobre tópicos que lhes são relevantes. Os resultados obtidos apontam que os fatores que contribuem para a ausência dos homens idosos nas atividades desenvolvidas pelo projeto são: a figura do professor e o método por ele aplicado; receio, vergonha e discriminação, em participar com mulheres e jovens; gosto por outras práticas não oferecidas pelo projeto. Embora toda a boa premissa relacionada aos benefícios da participação dos idosos em programas de esporte e lazer e perante a garantia de acesso a estes programas, no estudo ficou constatado que tais condições não são suficientes para atingir o público masculino de idosos. Consideramos que no processo de criação de novas estratégias e propostas de intervenção, é de extrema importância que ocorra um planejamento cuidadoso que identifique as dificuldades sociais e individuais que reduzam ou impeçam a participação do sujeito idoso nas atividades propostas. Concluímos, também, que reforçar os benefícios da prática da atividade física, oferecer atividades de lazer não ligadas à prática esportiva, oferecer atividades adaptadas e atividades exclusivas para os homens, são alternativas viáveis para atrair o homem idoso para o projeto.

A reason for unreason: returns-based beliefs in game theory

Players cooperate in experiments more than game theory would predict. We introduce the ‘returns-based beliefs’ approach: the expected returns of a particular strategy in proportion to total expected returns of all strategies. Using a decision analytic solution concept, Luce’s (1959) probabilistic choice model, and ‘hyperpriors’ for ambiguity in players’ cooperability, our approach explains empirical observations in various classes of games including the Prisoner’s and Traveler’s Dilemmas. Testing the closeness of fit of our model on Selten and Chmura (2008) data for completely mixed 2 × 2 games shows that with loss aversion, returns-based beliefs explain the data better than other equilibrium concepts.