On Ponzi schemes in infinite horizon collateralized economies with default penalties

Araujo, Páscoa and Torres-Martínez (2002) showed that, without imposing any debt constraint, Ponzi schemes are ruled out in infinite horizon economies with limited commitment when collateral is the only mechanism that partially secures loans. Páscoa and Seghir (2009) presented two examples in which they argued that Ponzi schemes may reappear if, additionally to the seizure of the collateral, there are sufficiently harsh default penalties assessed (directly in terms of utility) against the defaulters. Moreover, they claimed that if default penalties are moderate then Ponzi schemes are ruled out and existence of a competitive equilibrium is restored. This paper questions the validity of the claims made in Páscoa and Seghir (2009). First, we show that it is not true that harsh default penalties lead to Ponzi schemes in the examples they have proposed. A competitive equilibrium with no trade can be supported due to unduly pessimistic expectations on asset deliveries. We subsequently refine the equilibrium concept in the spirit of Dubey, Geanakoplos and Shubik (2005) in order to rule out spurious inactivity on asset markets due to irrational expectations. Our second contribution is to provide a specific example of an economy with moderate default penalties in which Ponzi schemes reappear when overpessimistic beliefs on asset deliveries are ruled out. Our finding shows that, contrary to what is claimed by Páscoa and Seghir (2009), moderate default penalties do not always prevent agents to run a Ponzi scheme.

Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon

This work aims to compare the forecast efficiency of different types of methodologies applied to Brazilian Consumer inflation (IPCA). We will compare forecasting models using disaggregated and aggregated data over twelve months ahead. The disaggregated models were estimated by SARIMA and will have different levels of disaggregation. Aggregated models will be estimated by time series techniques such as SARIMA, state-space structural models and Markov-switching. The forecasting accuracy comparison will be made by the selection model procedure known as Model Confidence Set and by Diebold-Mariano procedure. We were able to find evidence of forecast accuracy gains in models using more disaggregated data

Schwarzschild generalized black hole horizon and the embedding space

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Optimality conditions for infinite horizon control problems with state constraints

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

THERMAL RADIATION FROM A FLUCTUATING EVENT HORIZON

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

On the value function for nonautonomous optimal control problems with infinite horizon

In this paper we consider nonautonomous optimal control problems of infinite horizon type, whose control actions are given by L-1-functions. We verify that the value function is locally Lipschitz. The equivalence between dynamic programming inequalities and Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) inequalities for proximal sub (super) gradients is proven. Using this result we show that the value function is a Dini solution of the HJB equation. We obtain a verification result for the class of Dini sub-solutions of the HJB equation and also prove a minimax property of the value function with respect to the sets of Dini semi-solutions of the HJB equation. We introduce the concept of viscosity solutions of the HJB equation in infinite horizon and prove the equivalence between this and the concept of Dini solutions. In the Appendix we provide an existence theorem. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Joint rolling-horizon scheduling of materials processing and lot-sizing with sequence-dependent setups

A lot sizing and scheduling problem from a foundry is considered in which key materials are produced and then transformed into many products on a single machine. A mixed integer programming (MIP) model is developed, taking into account sequence-dependent setup costs and times, and then adapted for rolling horizon use. A relax-and-fix (RF) solution heuristic is proposed and computationally tested against a high-performance MIP solver. Three variants of local search are also developed to improve the RF method and tested. Finally the solutions are compared with those currently practiced at the foundry.

The LQ control problem for Markovian jumps linear systems with horizon defined by stopping times

This paper deals with a stochastic optimal control problem involving discrete-time jump Markov linear systems. The jumps or changes between the system operation modes evolve according to an underlying Markov chain. In the model studied, the problem horizon is defined by a stopping time τ which represents either, the occurrence of a fix number N of failures or repairs (TN), or the occurrence of a crucial failure event (τΔ), after which the system is brought to a halt for maintenance. In addition, an intermediary mixed case for which T represents the minimum between TN and τΔ is also considered. These stopping times coincide with some of the jump times of the Markov state and the information available allows the reconfiguration of the control action at each jump time, in the form of a linear feedback gain. The solution for the linear quadratic problem with complete Markov state observation is presented. The solution is given in terms of recursions of a set of algebraic Riccati equations (ARE) or a coupled set of algebraic Riccati equation (CARE).

Linear quadratic Gaussian control of discrete-time Markov jump linear systems with horizon defined by stopping times

The linear quadratic Gaussian control of discrete-time Markov jump linear systems is addressed in this paper, first for state feedback, and also for dynamic output feedback using state estimation. in the model studied, the problem horizon is defined by a stopping time τ which represents either, the occurrence of a fix number N of failures or repairs (T N), or the occurrence of a crucial failure event (τ δ), after which the system paralyzed. From the constructive method used here a separation principle holds, and the solutions are given in terms of a Kalman filter and a state feedback sequence of controls. The control gains are obtained by recursions from a set of algebraic Riccati equations for the former case or by a coupled set of algebraic Riccati equation for the latter case. Copyright © 2005 IFAC.

Necessary conditions of optimality for state constrained infinite horizon differential inclusions

This article presents and discusses necessary conditions of optimality for infinite horizon dynamic optimization problems with inequality state constraints and set inclusion constraints at both endpoints of the trajectory. The cost functional depends on the state variable at the final time, and the dynamics are given by a differential inclusion. Moreover, the optimization is carried out over asymptotically convergent state trajectories. The novelty of the proposed optimality conditions for this class of problems is that the boundary condition of the adjoint variable is given as a weak directional inclusion at infinity. This improves on the currently available necessary conditions of optimality for infinite horizon problems. © 2011 IEEE.

A maximum principle for constrained infinite horizon dynamic control systems

This article presents and discusses a maximum principle for infinite horizon constrained optimal control problems with a cost functional depending on the state at the final time. The main feature of these optimality conditions is that, under reasonably weak assumptions, the multiplier is shown to satisfy a novel transversality condition at infinite time. It is also shown that these conditions can also be obtained for impulsive control problems whose dynamics are given by measure driven differential equations. © 2011 IFAC.

A priori reformulations for joint rolling-horizon scheduling of materials processing and lot-sizing problem

In many production processes, a key material is prepared and then transformed into different final products. The lot sizing decisions concern not only the production of final products, but also that of material preparation in order to take account of their sequence-dependent setup costs and times. The amount of research in recent years indicates the relevance of this problem in various industrial settings. In this paper, facility location reformulation and strengthening constraints are newly applied to a previous lot-sizing model in order to improve solution quality and computing time. Three alternative metaheuristics are used to fix the setup variables, resulting in much improved performance over previous research, especially regarding the use of the metaheuristics for larger instances. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A gender parity horizon in Latin America: the political representation of women

Includes bibliography

Vers un horizon paritaire en Amérique Latine: la répresentation politique des femmes

Inclut la bibliographie