Effects of Synthesis Conditions on the Nanostructure of Hybrid Sols Produced by the Hydrolytic Condensation of (3-Methacryloxypropyl)trimethoxysilane

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Usos não-convencionais da vírgula em textos de alunos de quinta série/sexto ano do ensino fundamental

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A vulnerabilidade no esporte e a exposição às novas mídias: um estudo sobre o twitter

Pós-graduação em Desenvolvimento Humano e Tecnologias - IBRC

Extração automática de contornos de telhados de edifícios em um modelo digital de elevação, utilizando inferência Bayesiana e campos aleatórios de Markov

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Avaliação de modelos estatísticos considerando a incerteza da paternidade

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Determinantes do estado de saúde de crianças ribeirinhas menores de dois anos de idade do Estado do Pará, Brasil: um estudo transversal

O objetivo foi identificar os determinantes da saúde ruim em populações ribeirinhas menores de dois anos, residentes no Pará, Brasil. Foram avaliadas 202 crianças, considerando-se saúde ruim como variável desfecho, sendo composta pela combinação do estado nutricional, desenvolvimento físico-motor e intercorrências no último mês. Utilizou-se modelo multinível de análise hierárquica, considerando-se como preditoras da saúde ruim variáveis com p < 0,05 após ajuste. A razão de chance bruta apontou que o estado de saúde ruim é maior para as crianças de famílias que têm casa própria, são de maior idade e têm probabilidade de aleitamento materno exclusivo aos dois, três, quatro e cinco meses. Após ajuste, observa-se que crianças provenientes de famílias com casa própria têm 2,76 vezes mais chance de ter saúde ruim; esta também aumenta com a idade, chegando a ser 5,04 vezes maior entre as crianças de 18 a 23 meses, comparativamente às menores de 7 meses. Ter casa própria e mais idade representam, nessas comunidades, mais tempo de exposição ao risco de saúde ruim.

Atividade física em gestantes assistidas na atenção primária à saúde

OBJETIVO Analisar o padrão de atividade física de gestantes de baixo risco e os fatores associados. MÉTODOS Estudo transversal com 256 gestantes adultas no segundo trimestre gestacional, sorteadas dentre as assistidas pelas unidades de atenção primária à saúde do município de Botucatu, SP, em 2010. As atividades físicas foram investigadas por meio do “pregnancy physical activity questionnaire”, verificando-se tempo e intensidade de atividades ocupacionais, de deslocamento, domésticas e de lazer, expressos em equivalentes metabólicos dia. As gestantes foram classificadas segundo nível de atividade e em relação a atingir 150 min/semana de atividades físicas de lazer, variáveis dependentes do estudo. A associação entre essas variáveis e as socioeconômicas, características maternas, fatores comportamentais e modelo de atenção da unidade de saúde foi avaliada mediante modelos de regressão de Poisson com variância robusta, adotando-se modelo hierárquico. RESULTADOS A maior parte das gestantes era insuficientemente ativa (77,7%), 12,5% moderadamente ativa e 9,8% vigorosamente ativa. Os maiores gastos diários de energia foram com atividades domésticas, seguidas pelas atividades de locomoção; 10,2% atingiram a recomendação de 150 min semanais de atividades físicas de lazer. Trabalho fora de casa reduziu a chance de atingir essa recomendação (RP = 0,39, IC95% 0,16;0,93). Ter tido pelo menos um parto anterior (RP = 0,87, IC95% 0,77;0,99) e excesso ponderal pré-gestacional (RP = 0,85, IC95% 0,731;0,99) reduziram a chance de ser insuficientemente ativa, enquanto consumir menos alimentos saudáveis teve aumento discreto (RP = 1,18, IC95% 1,02;1,36). CONCLUSÕES Gestantes assistidas na atenção primária à saúde são insuficientemente ativas. Ter tido pelo menos um parto e apresentar sobrepeso pré-gestacional foram identificados como fatores protetores contra tal situação, enquanto consumo menos frequente de alimentos saudáveis foi fator de risco, sugerindo aglomeração de fatores de risco à saúde.

Burnout in dental students: effectiveness of different methods

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Análise espacial do potencial fotovoltaico em telhados de residências usando modelagem hierárquica bayesiana

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Space–time zero-inflated count models of Harbor seals

Environmental data are spatial, temporal, and often come with many zeros. In this paper, we included space–time random effects in zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and ‘hurdle’ models to investigate haulout patterns of harbor seals on glacial ice. The data consisted of counts, for 18 dates on a lattice grid of samples, of harbor seals hauled out on glacial ice in Disenchantment Bay, near Yakutat, Alaska. A hurdle model is similar to a ZIP model except it does not mix zeros from the binary and count processes. Both models can be used for zero-inflated data, and we compared space–time ZIP and hurdle models in a Bayesian hierarchical model. Space–time ZIP and hurdle models were constructed by using spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) models and temporal first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models as random effects in ZIP and hurdle regression models. We created maps of smoothed predictions for harbor seal counts based on ice density, other covariates, and spatio-temporal random effects. For both models predictions around the edges appeared to be positively biased. The linex loss function is an asymmetric loss function that penalizes overprediction more than underprediction, and we used it to correct for prediction bias to get the best map for space–time ZIP and hurdle models.

The Ecological Basis for Biogeographic Classification: an Example in Orchid Bees (Apidae: Euglossini)

Biogeography has been difficult to apply as a methodological approach because organismic biology is incomplete at levels where the process of formulating comparisons and analogies is complex. The study of insect biogeography became necessary because insects possess numerous evolutionary traits and play an important role as pollinators. Among insects, the euglossine bees, or orchid bees, attract interest because the study of their biology allows us to explain important steps in the evolution of social behavior and many other adaptive tradeoffs. We analyzed the distribution of morphological characteristics in Colombian orchid bees from an ecological perspective. The aim of this study was to observe the distribution of these attributes on a regional basis. Data corresponding to Colombian euglossine species were ordered with a correspondence analysis and with subsequent hierarchical clustering. Later, and based on community proprieties, we compared the resulting hierarchical model with the collection localities to seek to identify a biogeographic classification pattern. From this analysis, we derived a model that classifies the territory of Colombia into 11 biogeographic units or natural clusters. Ecological assumptions in concordance with the derived classification levels suggest that species characteristics associated with flight performance, nectar uptake, and social behavior are the factors that served to produce the current geographical structure.

Ensemble forecasting in the Mediterranean sea

A new methodology is being devised for ensemble ocean forecasting using distributions of the surface wind field derived from a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). The ocean members are forced with samples from the posterior distribution of the wind during the assimilation of satellite and in-situ ocean data. The initial condition perturbations are then consistent with the best available knowledge of the ocean state at the beginning of the forecast and amplify the ocean response to uncertainty only in the forcing. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) surface winds are also used to generate a reference ocean ensemble to evaluate the performance of the BHM method that proves to be eective in concentrating the forecast uncertainty at the ocean meso-scale. An height month experiment of weekly BHM ensemble forecasts was performed in the framework of the operational Mediterranean Forecasting System. The statistical properties of the ensemble are compared with model errors throughout the seasonal cycle proving the existence of a strong relationship between forecast uncertainties due to atmospheric forcing and the seasonal cycle.

Facetten emotionaler Expressivität auf Fragebogenebene

Der Dimensionierung emotionaler Expressivität auf Fragebogenebene wurde in zwei Untersuchungen nachgegangen. Gross und John (1998) untersuchten die Items bestehender Fragebogen auf ihre dimensionale Struktur hin und ermittelten die fünf Facetten positive und negative Expressivität, Impulsstärke, Darstellungsfähigkeit (expressive confidence) und Verstellungstendenz (masking), wobei die drei erstgenannten in einem hierarchischen Modell einen engeren Zusammenhang mit einander aufwiesen (Kern-Expressivität) als die beiden anderen. Untersuchung 1 ging den Fragen nach, ob sich die gleichen Dimensionen auch mit deutschen Adaptationen der Fragebogen finden lassen, und ob sich die dimensionale Struktur ändert, wenn weitere Fragebogen aus dem Bereich der Expressivität hinzugenommen werden. Die Dimensionen von Gross und John (1998) konnten nur zum Teil repliziert werden. Dies und die Ergebnisse des erweiterten Itempools führten zur Formulierung eines modifizierten (erweiterten) Modells der Facetten emotionaler Expressivität. In Untersuchung 2 wurden Items für einen Fragebogen zu Facetten emotionaler Expressivität (FFEE) formuliert, welche die im modifizierten Modell spezifizierten Dimensionen erheben sollten. Die drei postulierten übergeordneten Bereiche Kern-Expressivität, soziale Expressivität und kognitive Expressivität konnten auch empirisch gefunden werden. Darüber hinaus differenzierten sich die negativen Items der Kern-Expressivität stärker als die positiven. Die Zusammenhänge mit externen Expressivitäts-Fragebogen, den globalen Persönlichkeitsmerkmalen Extraversion und Neurotizismus und den Angstbewältigungsdimensionen Vigilanz und kognitive Vermeidung bestätigten die Validität des FFEE. Theoretische Implikationen und Ansatzpunkte für weitere Forschungen wurden diskutiert.

Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

Experimental Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Quench in Superconducting HTS Tapes and Coils

The quench characteristics of second generation (2 G) YBCO Coated Conductor (CC) tapes are of fundamental importance for the design and safe operation of superconducting cables and magnets based on this material. Their ability to transport high current densities at high temperature, up to 77 K, and at very high fields, over 20 T, together with the increasing knowledge in their manufacturing, which is reducing their cost, are pushing the use of this innovative material in numerous system applications, from high field magnets for research to motors and generators as well as for cables. The aim of this Ph. D. thesis is the experimental analysis and numerical simulations of quench in superconducting HTS tapes and coils. A measurements facility for the characterization of superconducting tapes and coils was designed, assembled and tested. The facility consist of a cryostat, a cryocooler, a vacuum system, resistive and superconducting current leads and signal feedthrough. Moreover, the data acquisition system and the software for critical current and quench measurements were developed. A 2D model was developed using the finite element code COMSOL Multiphysics R . The problem of modeling the high aspect ratio of the tape is tackled by multiplying the tape thickness by a constant factor, compensating the heat and electrical balance equations by introducing a material anisotropy. The model was then validated both with the results of a 1D quench model based on a non-linear electric circuit coupled to a thermal model of the tape, to literature measurements and to critical current and quench measurements made in the cryogenic facility. Finally the model was extended to the study of coils and windings with the definition of the tape and stack homogenized properties. The procedure allows the definition of a multi-scale hierarchical model, able to simulate the windings with different degrees of detail.