Comparação de metodologias na definição de fluxos acumulados a partir de modelos digitais de elevação do terreno aplicado a suscetibilidade de inundações

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Modellistica Idraulico-Matematica per la definizione di strategie di mitigazione del rischio alluvionale

La Comunità Europea, alla luce dei recenti eventi alluvionali occorsi nei Paesi Membri ed al progressivo aumento dei danni economici da essi provocati, ha recentemente emanato una direttiva (Direttiva Europea 2007/60/CE, Flood Directive) per la valutazione e la predisposizione di piani di gestione del rischio idraulico alluvionale. Con riferimento a tale contesto l’attività di ricerca condotta si è concentrata sulla valutazione delle potenzialità offerte dalla modellistica numerico-idraulica mono e bidimensionale quale strumento per l’attuazione della Direttiva 2007/60. Le attività sono state affrontate ponendo particolare attenzione alla valutazione dei termini di incertezza che caratterizzano l’applicazione dei modelli numerico-idraulici, esaminando i possibili effetti di tale incertezza sulla mappatura della pericolosità idraulica. In particolare, lo studio si concentra su diversi tratti fluviali del corso medio inferiore del Fiume Po e si articola in tre parti: 1) analisi dell’incertezza connessa alla definizione delle scale di deflusso in una generica sezione fluviale e valutazione dei suoi effetti sulla calibrazione dei modelli numerici quasi-bidimensionali (quasi-2D); 2) definizione di mappe probabilistiche di allagamento per tratti fluviali arginati in presenza di tre sorgenti di incertezza: incertezza nelle condizioni al contorno di monte, nelle condizioni di valle e nell’identificazione delle eventuali brecce arginali; 3) valutazione dell’applicabilità di un modello quasi-2D per la definizione, a grande scala spaziale, di strategie alternative al tradizionale rialzo dei manufatti arginali per la mitigazione del rischio alluvionale associato a eventi di piena catastrofici. Le analisi condotte, oltre ad aver definito e valutato le potenzialità di metodologie e modelli idraulici a diversa complessità, hanno evidenziato l’entità e l’impatto dei più importanti elementi d’incertezza, sottolineando come la corretta mappatura della pericolosità idraulica debba sempre essere accompagnata da una valutazione della sua incertezza.

Floods at the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains — A Polish-Swiss research project

The present paper introduces the topical area of the Polish-Swiss research project FLORIST (Flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains), informs on its objectives, and reports on initial results. The Tatra Mountains are the area of the highest precipitation in Poland and largely contribute to flood generation. The project is focused around four competence clusters: observation-based climatology, model-based climate change projections and impact assessment, dendrogeomorphology, and impact of large wood debris on fluvial processes. The knowledge generated in the FLORIST project is likely to have impact on understanding and interpretation of flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains, in the past, present, and future. It can help solving important practical problems related to flood risk reduction strategies and flood preparedness.

Characterisation of flash floods in small ungauged mountain basins of Central Spain using an integrated approach

One of the main problems of flood hazard assessment in ungauged or poorly gauged basins is the lack of runoff data. In an attempt to overcome this problem we have combined archival records, dendrogeomorphic time series and instrumental data (daily rainfall and discharge) from four ungauged and poorly gauged mountain basins in Central Spain with the aim of reconstructing and compiling information on 41 flash flood events since the end of the 19th century. Estimation of historical discharge and the incorporation of uncertainty for the at-site and regional flood frequency analysis were performed with an empirical rainfall–runoff assessment as well as stochastic and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches. Results for each of the ungauged basins include flood frequency, severity, seasonality and triggers (synoptic meteorological situations). The reconstructed data series clearly demonstrates how uncertainty can be reduced by including historical information, but also points to the considerable influence of different approaches on quantile estimation. This uncertainty should be taken into account when these data are used for flood risk management.

Transformaciones territoriales en áreas de riesgo de inundación. El caso del Arroyo El Gato. Partido de La Plata. Período 1980-2004

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo realizar el estudio de los cambios territoriales a partir de la evolución en los usos de suelo, la estructura morfológica urbana y aspectos socio-económicos de la población en uno de los asentamientos poblacionales situados en las márgenes del Arroyo El Gato. El mismo se llevará a cabo a partir de la implementación de la teledetección, análisis de datos estadísticos y encuestas. El estudio de las transformaciones territoriales nos ayudará a abordar en una primera aproximación las dimensiones de peligrosidad y exposición enmarcadas en la teoría social del riesgo. Este análisis servirá como insumo para la determinación de áreas de riesgo de inundación que se está desarrollando dentro del proyecto "Inundaciones en la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Factores naturales y antrópicos desde la Teoría Social del Riesgo. Cuenca Parano-Platense. 1980-2000".

Transformaciones territoriales en áreas de riesgo de inundación. El caso del Arroyo El Gato. Partido de La Plata. Período 1980-2004

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo realizar el estudio de los cambios territoriales a partir de la evolución en los usos de suelo, la estructura morfológica urbana y aspectos socio-económicos de la población en uno de los asentamientos poblacionales situados en las márgenes del Arroyo El Gato. El mismo se llevará a cabo a partir de la implementación de la teledetección, análisis de datos estadísticos y encuestas. El estudio de las transformaciones territoriales nos ayudará a abordar en una primera aproximación las dimensiones de peligrosidad y exposición enmarcadas en la teoría social del riesgo. Este análisis servirá como insumo para la determinación de áreas de riesgo de inundación que se está desarrollando dentro del proyecto "Inundaciones en la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Factores naturales y antrópicos desde la Teoría Social del Riesgo. Cuenca Parano-Platense. 1980-2000".

Transformaciones territoriales en áreas de riesgo de inundación. El caso del Arroyo El Gato. Partido de La Plata. Período 1980-2004

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo realizar el estudio de los cambios territoriales a partir de la evolución en los usos de suelo, la estructura morfológica urbana y aspectos socio-económicos de la población en uno de los asentamientos poblacionales situados en las márgenes del Arroyo El Gato. El mismo se llevará a cabo a partir de la implementación de la teledetección, análisis de datos estadísticos y encuestas. El estudio de las transformaciones territoriales nos ayudará a abordar en una primera aproximación las dimensiones de peligrosidad y exposición enmarcadas en la teoría social del riesgo. Este análisis servirá como insumo para la determinación de áreas de riesgo de inundación que se está desarrollando dentro del proyecto "Inundaciones en la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Factores naturales y antrópicos desde la Teoría Social del Riesgo. Cuenca Parano-Platense. 1980-2000".

Survey on economic assessment of the improvement of the quality of environment: the case of the fight against floods in Cotonou (Benin Living Standard Survey)

This study aims to analyze households' attitude toward flood risk in Cotonou in the sense to identify whether they are willing or not to leave the flood-prone zones. Moreover, the attitudes toward the management of wastes and dirty water are analyzed. The data used in this study were obtained from two sources: the survey implemented during March 2011 on one hundred and fifty randomly selected households living in flood-prone areas of Cotonou, and Benin Living Standard Survey of 2006 (Part relative to Cotonou on 1,586 households). Moreover, climate data were used in this study. Multinomial probability model is used for the econometric analysis of the attitude toward flood risk. While the attitudes toward the management of wastes and dirty water are analyzed through a simple logit. The results show that 55.3% of households agreed to go elsewhere while 44.7% refused [we are better-off here (10.67%), due to the proximity of the activities (19.33), the best way is to build infrastructures that will protect against flood and family house (14.67%)]. The authorities have to rethink an alternative policy to what they have been doing such as building socio-economic houses outside Cotonou and propose to the households that are living the areas prone to inundation. Moreover, access to formal education has to be reinforced.

Estudio de estabilidad de barreras de contención hidráulicas mediante tomografia eléctrica y placa de carga en Zaragoza

El objetivo del presente proyecto es definir las actuaciones encaminadas a restaurar el sistema actual de defensa del río Ebro en el tramo Pradilla de Ebro- Boquiñeni (Zaragoza), con el propósito de reducir el riesgo por inundaciones en los núcleos de población del mismo nombre, para lo que se ha realizado una campaña de reconocimiento del Terreno mediante técnicas geofísicas. La campaña de prospección ha consistido en la realización de perfiles de tomografía eléctrica para determinar la distribución de los niveles geoeléctricos en la zona obteniéndose la profundidad y variabilidad del nivel freático y la distribución aparente de los niveles biológicos. En base a las anomalías detectadas en las secciones de resistividad se han llevado a cabo ensayos in situ con placa de carga dinámica con el fin de determinar las características portantes de las barreras. La correlación de ambos estudios permite localizar las zonas de debilidad estructural para así poder establecer las recomendaciones oportunas de cara a restaurar los diques de protección, de forma que puedan cumplir con su función de contención frente a los caudales de crecida. ABSTRACT The aim of this project is so define the interventions required to restore the current defense system of Ebro River in the stretch between Pradilla de Ebro and Boquiñeni (Zaragoza), in order to reduce flood risk in the population centers of the same name, for what a soil survey has been done using geophysical techniques. The geophysical prospecting campaign has consisted on the realization of electrical tomography profiles to determine the distribution of due geoelectric levels in the area, the depth and variability of the water table and the distribution of apparent lithology level. Based on anomalies detected in resistivity sections, dynamic loading plate test were carried out in situ in order to determine the load bearing characteristics of the safety barriers. The correlation o f both studies makes possible to locate die areas o f structural weakness, with the objective of establishing appropriate recommendations to restore the embankments so that they can meet their retaining functions against flood flows.

FRe building technological products

Nowadays "Flood Resilient (FRe) Building Technological Products" is an undefined concept, and concerned FRe solutions cannot be even easily identified. There is an interest in offering an identification and classification of the referred products, since it will be useful for stakeholders and populations at flood risk for adopting the most adequate protections when facing floods. There are many barriers for the implementation of "FRe building technological products", and particularly their standardization is still a major challenge. To put into contact such solutions with final customers, it appears necessary to protocolize them all. The classification effort achieved in this document shall be considered as a necessary preliminary step in order to open the road to the market to FRe building technological solutions.

Looking for a more comprehensive approach

The necessity/convenience for improving accuracy in determining the flood frequency is widely accepted further than among hydrologists, and is increasingly deepened in relationship with the statement of different thresholds related to the respective management systems. And both Scientific and Management Communities fully accept the necessity of living with determined levels of flood risk. Most of the approaches for “Advancing Methods” improving concentrate on the statistical ways, even since Climate in fact is not a Stationary process. The question is here reflected since the SMARTeST research and final highlights, policy and recommendations. The paper looks at a better agreement between Hydrology and the whole Climate as the result of the Global Thermal Machine and takes mainly into account a historical approach, trying to show the necessity of a wider collection and analysis of climate data for statistical approaches.

Looking for a more comprehensive approach

The necessity/convenience for improving accuracy in determining the flood frequency is widely accepted further than among hydrologists, and is increasingly deepened in relationship with the statement of different thresholds related to the respective management systems. And both Scientific and Management Communities fully accept the necessity of living with determined levels of flood risk. Most of the approaches for “Advancing Methods” improving concentrate on the statistical ways, even since Climate in fact is not a Stationary process. The question is here reflected since the SMARTeST research and final highlights, policy and recommendations. The paper looks at a better agreement between Hydrology and the whole Climate as the result of the Global Thermal Machine and takes mainly into account a historical approach, trying to show the necessity of a wider collection and analysis of climate data for statistical approaches.

Transformaciones antrópicas e inundabilidad en áreas turísticas litorales: estudio de caso de la costa de Orihuela (Alicante)

En el marco de la investigación sobre riesgos naturales, se analiza, como estudio de caso, un espacio costero en el que la artificialización de ramblas deriva del reciente y espectacular proceso de crecimiento de la actividad turística y la consiguiente creación de un nuevo sistema de asentamientos urbanos, realizados sin la necesaria consideración del riesgo de inundaciones.

El plan global frente al riesgo de inundación en la ribera del Júcar

El Plan Global del Júcar frente al riesgo de inundación pretende minimizar los daños causados por las avenidas que periódicamente afectan a la Ribera del Júcar. En el presente artículo se describen y analizan las actuaciones de este Plan, la génesis del mismo, el proceso de elaboración y sus resultados. La problemática es compleja, ya que el riesgo de inundación abarca un territorio muy poblado, con un importante desarrollo industrial y agrícola. Además, la existencia de espacios naturales de elevado valor ambiental, hace que las intervenciones derivadas del Plan consideren al mismo nivel la defensa frente a avenidas y las demandas sociales y ambientales, tras el consenso alcanzado en un proceso de participación pública. El Plan incorpora aspectos innovadores en ingeniería hidráulica, cuyo resultado es una actuación integrada y sostenible, que compatibiliza la protección frente a avenidas con la recuperación y mejora del ámbito fluvial, y su función como corredor vertebrador del territorio.

M-AARE - Coupling atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models in the Aare river basin, Switzerland

The triggering mechanism and the temporal evolution of large flood events, especially of worst-case scenarios, are not yet fully understood. Consequently, the cumulative losses of extreme floods are unknown. To study the link between weather conditions, discharges and flood losses it is necessary to couple atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models. The objective of the M-AARE project is to test the potentials and opportunities of a model chain that relates atmospheric conditions to flood losses or risks. The M-AARE model chain is a set of coupled models consisting of four main components: the precipitation module, the hydrology module, the hydrodynamic module, and the damage module. The models are coupled in a cascading framework with harmonized time-steps. First exploratory applications show that the one way coupling of the WRF-PREVAH-BASEMENT models has been achieved and provides promising new insights for a better understanding of key aspects in flood risk analysis.