The investigation of crime:the myths and the reality

Initially the study focussed on the factors affecting the ability of the police to solve crimes. An analysts of over twenty thousand police deployments revealed the proportion of time spent investigating crime contrasted to its perceived importance and the time spent on other activities. The fictional portrayal of skills believed important in successful crime investigation were identified and compared to the professional training and 'taught skills’ given to police and detectives. Police practitioners and middle management provided views on the skills needed to solve crimes. The relative importance of the forensic science role. fingerprint examination and interrogation skills were contrasted with changes in police methods resulting from the Police and Criminal Evidence Act and its effect on confessions. The study revealed that existing police systems for investigating crime excluding specifically cases of murder and other serious offences, were unsystematic, uncoordinated, unsupervised and unproductive in using police resources. The study examined relevant and contemporary research in the United States and United Kingdom and with organisational support introduced an experimental system of data capture and initial investigation with features of case screening and management. Preliminary results indicated increases in the collection of essential information and more effective use of investigative resources. In the managerial framework within which this study has been conducted, research has been undertaken in the knowledge elicitation area as a basis for an expert system of crime investigation and the potential organisational benefits of utilising the Lap computer in the first stages of data gathering and investigation. The conclusions demonstrate the need for a totally integrated system of criminal investigation with emphasis on an organisational rather than individual response. In some areas the evidence produced is sufficient to warrant replication, in others additional research is needed to further explore other concepts and proposed systems pioneered by this study.

The application of expert systems techniques in the design of durable concrete

This thesis describes work done exploring the application of expert system techniques to the domain of designing durable concrete. The nature of concrete durability design is described and some problems from the domain are discussed. Some related work on expert systems in concrete durability are described. Various implementation languages are considered - PROLOG and OPS5, and rejected in favour of a shell - CRYSTAL3 (later CRYSTAL4). Criteria for useful expert system shells in the domain are discussed. CRYSTAL4 is evaluated in the light of these criteria. Modules in various sub-domains (mix-design, sulphate attack, steel-corrosion and alkali aggregate reaction) are developed and organised under a BLACKBOARD system (called DEX). Extensions to the CRYSTAL4 modules are considered for different knowledge representations. These include LOTUS123 spreadsheets implementing models incorporating some of the mathematical knowledge in the domain. Design databases are used to represent tabular design knowledge. Hypertext representations of the original building standards texts are proposed as a tool for providing a well structured and extensive justification/help facility. A standardised approach to module development is proposed using hypertext development as a structured basis for expert systems development. Some areas of deficient domain knowledge are highlighted particularly in the use of data from mathematical models and in gaps and inconsistencies in the original knowledge source Digests.

An approach to the development of expert systems within production planning and control

The thesis presents an account of an attempt to utilize expert systems within the domain of production planning and control. The use of expert systems was proposed due to the problematical nature of a particular function within British Steel Strip Products' Operations Department: the function of Order Allocation, allocating customer orders to a production week and site. Approaches to tackling problems within production planning and control are reviewed, as are the general capabilities of expert systems. The conclusions drawn are that the domain of production planning and control contains both `soft' and `hard' problems, and that while expert systems appear to be a useful technology for this domain, this usefulness has by no means yet been demonstrated. Also, it is argued that the main stream methodology for developing expert systems is unsuited for the domain. A problem-driven approach is developed and used to tackle the Order Allocation function. The resulting system, UAAMS, contained two expert components. One of these, the scheduling procedure was not fully implemented due to inadequate software. The second expert component, the product routing procedure, was untroubled by such difficulties, though it was unusable on its own; thus a second system was developed. This system, MICRO-X10, duplicated the function of X10, a complex database query routine used daily by Order Allocation. A prototype version of MICRO-X10 proved too slow to be useful but allowed implementation and maintenance issues to be analysed. In conclusion, the usefulness of the problem-driven approach to expert systems development within production planning and control is demonstrated but restrictions imposed by current expert system software are highlighted in that the abilities of such software to cope with `hard' scheduling constructs and also the slow processing speeds of such software can restrict the current usefulness of expert systems within production planning and control.

Knowledge-based system for casting process selection

Design of casting entails the knowledge of various interacting factors that are unique to casting process, and, quite often, product designers do not have the required foundry-specific knowledge. Casting designers normally have to liaise with casting experts in order to ensure the product designed is castable and the optimum casting method is selected. This two-way communication results in long design lead times, and lack of it can easily lead to incorrect casting design. A computer-based system at the discretion of a design engineer can, however, alleviate this problem and enhance the prospect of casting design for manufacture. This paper proposes a knowledge-based expert system approach to assist casting product designers in selecting the most suitable casting process for specified casting design requirements, during the design phase of product manufacture. A prototype expert system has been developed, based on production rules knowledge representation technique. The proposed system consists of a number of autonomous but interconnected levels, each dealing with a specific group of factors, namely, casting alloy, shape and complexity parameters, accuracy requirements and comparative costs, based on production quantity. The user interface has been so designed to allow the user to have a clear view of how casting design parameters affect the selection of various casting processes at each level; if necessary, the appropriate design changes can be made to facilitate the castability of the product being designed, or to suit the design to a preferred casting method.

The effectiveness of personalized smoking cessation strategies for callers to a Quitline service

Aim To assess the effectiveness of a program of computer-generated tailored advice for callers to a telephone helpline, and to assess whether it enhanced a series of callback telephone counselling sessions in aiding smoking cessation. Design Randomized controlled trial comparing: (1) untailored self-help materials; (2) computer-generated tailored advice only, and (3) computer-generated tailored advice plus callback telephone counselling. Assessment surveys were conducted at baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months. Setting Victoria, Australia. Participants A total of 1578 smokers who called the Quitline service and agreed to participate. Measurements Smoking status at follow-up; duration of cessation, if quit; use of nicotine replacement therapy; and extent of participation in the callback service. Findings At the 3-month follow-up, significantly more (chi(2)(2) = 16.9; P < 0.001) participants in the computer-generated tailored advice plus telephone counselling condition were not smoking (21%) than in either the computer-generated advice only (12%) or the control condition (12%). Proportions reporting not smoking at the 12-month follow-up were 26%, 23% and 22%, respectively (NS) for point prevalence, and for 9 months sustained abstinence; 8.2, 6.0, and 5.0 (NS). In the telephone counselling group, those receiving callbacks were more likely than those who did not to have sustained abstinence at 12 months (10.2 compared with 4.0, P < 0.05). Logistic regression on 3-month data showed significant independent effects on cessation of telephone counselling and use of NRT, but not of computer-generated tailored advice. Conclusion Computer-generated tailored advice did not enhance telephone counselling, nor have any independent effect on cessation. This may be due to poor timing of the computer-generated tailored advice and poor integration of the two modes of advice.

Qualifound – a modular tool developed for quality improvement in foundries

Purpose – Castings defects are usually easy to characterize, but to eradicate them can be a difficult task. In many cases, defects are caused by the combined effect of different factors, whose identification is often difficult. Besides, the real non-quality costs are usually unknown, and even neglected. This paper aims to describe the development of a modular tool for quality improvement in foundries, and its main objective is to present the application potential and the foundry process areas that are covered and taken into account. Design/methodology/approach – The integrated model was conceived as an expert system, designated Qualifound, which performs both qualitative and quantitative analyses. For the qualitative analyses mode, the nomenclature and the description of defects are based on the classification suggested by the International Committee of the Foundry Technical Association. Thus, a database of defects was established, enabling one to associate the defects with the relevant process operations and the identification of their possible causes. The quantitative analysis mode deals with the number of produced and rejected castings and includes the calculation of the non-quality costs. Findings – The validation of Qualifound was carried out in a Portuguese foundry, whose quality system had been certified according to the ISO 9000 standards. Qualifound was used in every management area and it was concluded that the application had the required technological requisites to provide the necessary information for the foundry management to improve process quality. Originality/value – The paper presents a successful application of an informatics tool on quality improvement in foundries.

Sistema pericial para auditoria de registos clínicos

O registo clinico é um documento hospitalar confidencial, nele é registado todo o percurso clinico de um determinado paciente. Esse percurso é registado através da atribuição de códigos descritos num sistema de classificação, também denominados de dados da codificação. Os dados da codificação são armazenados electronicamente numa Base de Dados, e é a partir dela que certas medidas, tais como facturação hospitalar, financiamentos hospitalares anuais, tratamentos médicos, ou até mesmo dados epidemiológicos, são adotadas. Portanto torna-se fundamental a garantia da qualidade na área da codificação clinica, para isso é necessário recorrer a processos de auditorias aos registos clínicos. O processo de auditoria é uma atividade independente de avaliação, cujo objetivo visa acrescentar valor e melhorar os objetos e processos da auditoria. Atualmente uma ferramenta denominada de Programa Auditor é utilizada, contudo essa ferramenta demonstra uma tecnologia já ultrapassada. A Tese que se pretende defender é a de que, através de Sistemas Periciais, é possível realizar auditorias internas aos registos clínicos. Pretende-se ainda demonstrar que dos Sistemas Periciais e um benefício para os peritos na área, pois diminui a probabilidade de erros e torna o processo de verificação menos moroso. Neste contexto, o objetivo desta Dissertação prende-se em definir e implementar um Sistema Pericial que permita a auditoria de registos clínicos hospitalares. O Sistema Pericial dever a ainda ser capaz de traduzir o raciocínio do perito, detectando assim diversos tipos de erros que traduzem num registo clínico não conforme. Por sua vez, foi desenvolvido um protótipo de um Sistema Pericial para auditoria de registos clínicos em linguagem PROLOG. Este mesmo protótipo serviu de base à realização de uma experiência que permitiu comparar com o programa Auditor e verificar a sua aplicabilidade no dia-a-dia hospitalar.

Evaluating ubiquitous computing environments using 3D simulation

Human activity is very dynamic and subtle, and most physical environments are also highly dynamic and support a vast range of social practices that do not map directly into any immediate ubiquitous computing functionally. Identifying what is valuable to people is very hard and obviously leads to great uncertainty regarding the type of support needed and the type of resources needed to create such support. We have addressed the issues of system development through the adoption of a Crowdsourced software development model [13]. We have designed and developed Anywhere places, an open and flexible system support infrastructure for Ubiquitous Computing that is based on a balanced combination between global services and applications and situated devices. Evaluation, however, is still an open problem. The characteristics of ubiquitous computing environments make their evaluation very complex: there are no globally accepted metrics and it is very difficult to evaluate large-scale and long-term environments in real contexts. In this paper, we describe a first proposal of an hybrid 3D simulated prototype of Anywhere places that combines simulated and real components to generate a mixed reality which can be used to assess the envisaged ubiquitous computing environments [17].

Personalized-based dietary recommendation for weightlifting

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Eletrónica Industrial e Computadores

Un model de decisió pel tractament mèdic a partir de diagnòstics imprecisos

És un sistema expert que donat un diagnòstic imprecís d’un metge en un malalt amb una malaltia infecciosa i els paràmetres mèdics d’aquest pacient, retorni com a resultat els possibles tractaments que se li poden subministrar al pacient ordenats per un coeficient d’adequadament, que pugui combatre qualsevol dels possibles bacteris que el metge hagi diagnosticat i vigilant de no provocar efectes secundaris. Aquest sistema expert resoldrà casos senzills i pretén ser la base d’una possible extensió per arribar a resoldre casos més complexos.

A programme for computer aided identification of Phlebotomine sandflies of the Americas (CIPA): presentation and check-list of American species

The CIPA programme is a collaborative project including two entomologists from France and seven South and Central America countries. Its objective is the development of an expert system for computer aided identification of phlebotomine sandflies from the Americas. It also includes the formation of data bases for bibliographic, taxonomic and biogeographic data. Participant consensus on taxonomic prerequisites, standardization in bibliographic data collections and selection of descriptive variables for the final programme has been established through continous communication among participants and annual meetings. The adopted check-list of American sandflies presented here includes 386 specific taxa, ordered into genera and 28 sub-genera or species groups.

Abstracting qualitative information for process supervision

Supervisory systems evolution makes the obtaining of significant information from processes more important in the way that the supervision systems' particular tasks are simplified. So, having signal treatment tools capable of obtaining elaborate information from the process data is important. In this paper, a tool that obtains qualitative data about the trends and oscillation of signals is presented. An application of this tool is presented as well. In this case, the tool, implemented in a computer-aided control systems design (CACSD) environment, is used in order to give to an expert system for fault detection in a laboratory plant

Artificial-Intelligence-Based Optimization of the Management of Snow Removal Assets and Resources Final Report, October 2002

Geographic information systems (GIS) and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques were used to develop an intelligent snow removal asset management system (SRAMS). The system has been evaluated through a case study examining snow removal from the roads in Black Hawk County, Iowa, for which the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) is responsible. The SRAMS is comprised of an expert system that contains the logical rules and expertise of the Iowa DOT’s snow removal experts in Black Hawk County, and a geographic information system to access and manage road data. The system is implemented on a mid-range PC by integrating MapObjects 2.1 (a GIS package), Visual Rule Studio 2.2 (an AI shell), and Visual Basic 6.0 (a programming tool). The system could efficiently be used to generate prioritized snowplowing routes in visual format, to optimize the allocation of assets for plowing, and to track materials (e.g., salt and sand). A test of the system reveals an improvement in snowplowing time by 1.9 percent for moderate snowfall and 9.7 percent for snowstorm conditions over the current manual system.

Erosion Control for Highway Applications, Phase I: Review and Synthesis of Literature, Final Report, TR-464, May 2002

The project described herein has led to a convenient, computer-based expert system for identifying and evaluating potentially effective erosion- and sedimentation-control measures for use in roadway construction throughout Iowa and elsewhere in the Midwest. The expert system is intended to be an accessible and efficient practical resource to aid state, county, and municipal engineers in the selection of the best management practices for preventing unwanted erosion and sedimentation at roadway construction sites, during and after construction.

Artificially Intelligent and Adaptive Methods for Prediction and Analysis of Superheater Fireside Corrosion in Fluidized Bed Boilers

Superheater corrosion causes vast annual losses for the power companies. With a reliable corrosion prediction method, the plants can be designed accordingly, and knowledge of fuel selection and determination of process conditions may be utilized to minimize superheater corrosion. Growing interest to use recycled fuels creates additional demands for the prediction of corrosion potential. Models depending on corrosion theories will fail, if relations between the inputs and the output are poorly known. A prediction model based on fuzzy logic and an artificial neural network is able to improve its performance as the amount of data increases. The corrosion rate of a superheater material can most reliably be detected with a test done in a test combustor or in a commercial boiler. The steel samples can be located in a special, temperature-controlled probe, and exposed to the corrosive environment for a desired time. These tests give information about the average corrosion potential in that environment. Samples may also be cut from superheaters during shutdowns. The analysis ofsamples taken from probes or superheaters after exposure to corrosive environment is a demanding task: if the corrosive contaminants can be reliably analyzed, the corrosion chemistry can be determined, and an estimate of the material lifetime can be given. In cases where the reason for corrosion is not clear, the determination of the corrosion chemistry and the lifetime estimation is more demanding. In order to provide a laboratory tool for the analysis and prediction, a newapproach was chosen. During this study, the following tools were generated: · Amodel for the prediction of superheater fireside corrosion, based on fuzzy logic and an artificial neural network, build upon a corrosion database developed offuel and bed material analyses, and measured corrosion data. The developed model predicts superheater corrosion with high accuracy at the early stages of a project. · An adaptive corrosion analysis tool based on image analysis, constructedas an expert system. This system utilizes implementation of user-defined algorithms, which allows the development of an artificially intelligent system for thetask. According to the results of the analyses, several new rules were developed for the determination of the degree and type of corrosion. By combining these two tools, a user-friendly expert system for the prediction and analyses of superheater fireside corrosion was developed. This tool may also be used for the minimization of corrosion risks by the design of fluidized bed boilers.