982 resultados para decision error
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The ideas for this CRC research project are based directly on Sidwell, Kennedy and Chan (2002). That research examined a number of case studies to identify the characteristics of successful projects. The findings were used to construct a matrix of best practice project delivery strategies. The purpose of this literature review is to test the decision matrix against established theory and best practice in the subject of construction project management.
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The Co-operative Research Centre for Construction Innovation (CRC-CI) is funding a project known as Value Alignment Process for Project Delivery. The project consists of a study of best practice project delivery and the development of a suite of products, resources and services to guide project teams towards the best procurement approach for a specific project or group of projects. These resources will be focused on promoting the principles that underlie best practice project delivery rather than simply identifying an off-the-shelf procurement system. This project builds on earlier work by Sidwell, Kennedy and Chan (2002), on re-engineering the construction delivery process, which developed a procurement framework in the form of a Decision Matrix
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Objectives The procurement research of Sydney Opera House FM Exemplar Project aims to develop innovative methods and guidelines for the procurement of FM services, applicable to iconic and / or performing arts centre facilities, or facilities with similar FM functions. The initial procurement report in June 2005 analysed the strategic objectives and operational requirements that provide ‘demand statements’ as evaluation criteria in the service procurement process. The subsequent interim procurement report in September 2005 discussed the elements contributing to the criteria for decision-making in the service procurement process. This procurement report concentrates on the research on procurement strategies and innovative methods using a case study approach. The objectives of this report are: • to investigate service procurement methods and process in iconic and/or performing arts centre facilities; • to showcase FM innovation in Sydney Opera House through a case study; • to establish a preliminary decision-making framework and guidelines for selection of appropriate FM procurement routes to provide a useful model for FM community. Findings Findings from this procurement research are presented as follows. • FM innovation and experience of Sydney Opera House • Innovative procurement methods and processes, drawn from a case study of Sydney Opera House as exemplar • An integrated performance framework to link maintenance service functions to high level organisational objective and strategies • Procurement methods and contract outcomes, focusing on building maintenance and cleaning services of Sydney Opera House • Multi-dimensional assessment of Service Providers • General decision-making strategies and guidelines for selection of appropriate FM procurement routes Further Research Whilst the Sydney Opera House case study emphasises the experience of Sydney Opera House, a study of procurement strategies and methods from published research and FM good practice will supply facilities managers with alternative procurement routes. Further research on the procurement theme will develop a final decision-making model for the procurement of FM services, drawn from the evaluation of the case study outcomes, as well as FM good practice and findings from current published research.
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Australia’s civil infrastructure assets of roads, bridges, railways, buildings and other structures are worth billions of dollars. Road assets alone are valued at around A$ 140 billion. As the condition of assets deteriorate over time, close to A$10 billion is spent annually in asset maintenance on Australia's roads, or the equivalent of A$27 million per day. To effectively manage road infrastructures, firstly, road agencies need to optimise the expenditure for asset data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. A procedure for assessing investment decision for road asset management has been developed. The procedure includes: • A methodology for optimising asset data collection; • A methodology for calibrating deterioration prediction models; • A methodology for assessing risk-adjusted estimates for life-cycle cost estimates. • A decision framework in the form of risk map
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This document provides a review of international and national practices in investment decision support tools in road asset management. Efforts were concentrated on identifying analytic frameworks, evaluation methodologies and criteria adopted by current tools. Emphasis was also given to how current approaches support Triple Bottom Line decision-making. Benefit Cost Analysis and Multiple Criteria Analysis are principle methodologies in supporting decision-making in Road Asset Management. The complexity of the applications shows significant differences in international practices. There is continuing discussion amongst practitioners and researchers regarding to which one is more appropriate in supporting decision-making. It is suggested that the two approaches should be regarded as complementary instead of competitive means. Multiple Criteria Analysis may be particularly helpful in early stages of project development, say strategic planning. Benefit Cost Analysis is used most widely for project prioritisation and selecting the final project from amongst a set of alternatives. Benefit Cost Analysis approach is useful tool for investment decision-making from an economic perspective. An extension of the approach, which includes social and environmental externalities, is currently used in supporting Triple Bottom Line decision-making in the road sector. However, efforts should be given to several issues in the applications. First of all, there is a need to reach a degree of commonality on considering social and environmental externalities, which may be achieved by aggregating the best practices. At different decision-making level, the detail of consideration of the externalities should be different. It is intended to develop a generic framework to coordinate the range of existing practices. The standard framework will also be helpful in reducing double counting, which appears in some current practices. Cautions should also be given to the methods of determining the value of social and environmental externalities. A number of methods, such as market price, resource costs and Willingness to Pay, are found in the review. The use of unreasonable monetisation methods in some cases has discredited Benefit Cost Analysis in the eyes of decision makers and the public. Some social externalities, such as employment and regional economic impacts, are generally omitted in current practices. This is due to the lack of information and credible models. It may be appropriate to consider these externalities in qualitative forms in a Multiple Criteria Analysis. Consensus has been reached in considering noise and air pollution in international practices. However, Australia practices generally omitted these externalities. Equity is an important consideration in Road Asset Management. The considerations are either between regions, or social groups, such as income, age, gender, disable, etc. In current practice, there is not a well developed quantitative measure for equity issues. More research is needed to target this issue. Although Multiple Criteria Analysis has been used for decades, there is not a generally accepted framework in the choice of modelling methods and various externalities. The result is that different analysts are unlikely to reach consistent conclusions about a policy measure. In current practices, some favour using methods which are able to prioritise alternatives, such as Goal Programming, Goal Achievement Matrix, Analytic Hierarchy Process. The others just present various impacts to decision-makers to characterise the projects. Weighting and scoring system are critical in most Multiple Criteria Analysis. However, the processes of assessing weights and scores were criticised as highly arbitrary and subjective. It is essential that the process should be as transparent as possible. Obtaining weights and scores by consulting local communities is a common practice, but is likely to result in bias towards local interests. Interactive approach has the advantage in helping decision-makers elaborating their preferences. However, computation burden may result in lose of interests of decision-makers during the solution process of a large-scale problem, say a large state road network. Current practices tend to use cardinal or ordinal scales in measure in non-monetised externalities. Distorted valuations can occur where variables measured in physical units, are converted to scales. For example, decibels of noise converts to a scale of -4 to +4 with a linear transformation, the difference between 3 and 4 represents a far greater increase in discomfort to people than the increase from 0 to 1. It is suggested to assign different weights to individual score. Due to overlapped goals, the problem of double counting also appears in some of Multiple Criteria Analysis. The situation can be improved by carefully selecting and defining investment goals and criteria. Other issues, such as the treatment of time effect, incorporating risk and uncertainty, have been given scant attention in current practices. This report suggested establishing a common analytic framework to deal with these issues.
Resumo:
The aim of this project is to develop a systematic investment decision-making framework for infrastructure asset management by incorporation economic justification, social and environmental consideration in the decision-making process. This project assesses the factors that are expected to provide significant impacts on the variability of expenditures. A procedure for assessing risk and reliability for project investment appraisals will be developed. The project investigates public perception, social and environmental impacts on road infrastructure investment. This research will contribute to the debate about how important social and environmental issues should be incorporated into the investment decision-making process for infrastructure asset management.
Resumo:
This document provides the findings of an international review of investment decision-making practices in road asset management. Efforts were concentrated on identifying the strategic objectives of agencies in road asset management, establishing and understanding criteria different organisations adopted and ascertaining the exact methodologies used by different countries and international organisations. Road assets are powerful drivers of economic development and social equity. They also have significant impacts on the natural and man-made environment. The traditional definition of asset management is “A systematic process of maintaining, upgrading and operating physical assets cost effectively. It combines engineering principles with sound business practices and economic theory and it provides tools to facilitate a more organised, logical approach to decision-making” (US Dept. of Transportation, 1999). In recent years, the concept has been broadened to cover the complexity of decision making, based on a wider variety of policy considerations as well as social and environmental issues rather than is covered by Benefit-Cost analysis and pure technical considerations. Current international practices are summarised in table 2. It was evident that Engineering-economic analysis methods are well advanced to support decision-making. A range of tools available supports performance predicting of road assets and associated cost/benefit in technical context. The need for considering triple plus one bottom line of social, environmental and economic as well as political factors in decision-making is well understood by road agencies around the world. The techniques used to incorporate these however, are limited. Most countries adopt a scoring method, a goal achievement matrix or information collected from surveys. The greater uncertainty associated with these non-quantitative factors has generally not been taken into consideration. There is a gap between the capacities of the decision-making support systems and the requirements from decision-makers to make more rational and transparent decisions. The challenges faced in developing an integrated decision making framework are both procedural and conceptual. In operational terms, the framework should be easy to be understood and employed. In philosophical terms, the framework should be able to deal with challenging issues, such as uncertainty, time frame, network effects, model changes, while integrating cost and non-cost values into the evaluation. The choice of evaluation techniques depends on the feature of the problem at hand, on the aims of the analysis, and on the underlying information base At different management levels, the complexity in considering social, environmental, economic and political factor in decision-making is different. At higher the strategic planning level, more non-cost factors are involved. The complexity also varies based on the scope of the investment proposals. Road agencies traditionally place less emphasis on evaluation of maintenance works. In some cases, social equity, safety, environmental issues have been used in maintenance project selection. However, there is not a common base for the applications.
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This document provides the findings of a national review of investment decision-making practices in road asset management. Efforts were concentrated on identifying the strategic objectives of agencies in road asset management, establishing and understanding criteria different organisations adopted and ascertaining the exact methodologies used by different sate road authorities. The investment objectives of Australian road authorities are based on triple-bottom line considerations (social, environmental, economic and political). In some cases, comparing with some social considerations, such as regional economic development, equity, and access to pubic service etc., Benefit-Cost Ratio has limited influence on the decision-making. Australian road authorities have developed various decision support tools. Although Multi-Criteria Analysis has been preliminarily used in case by case study, pavement management systems, which are primarily based on Benefit Cost Analysis, are still the main decision support tool. This situation is not compatible with the triple-bottom line objectives. There is need to fill the gap between decision support tools and decision-making itself. Different decision criteria should be adopted based on the contents of the work. Additional decision criteria, which are able to address social, environmental and political impacts, are needed to develop or identify. Environmental issue plays a more and more important role in decision-making. However, the criteria and respective weights in decision-making process are yet to be clearly identified. Social and political impacts resulted from road infrastructure investment can be identified through Community Perceptions Survey. With accumulative data, prediction models, which are similar as pavement performance models, can be established. Using these models, the decision-makers are able to foresee the social and political consequences of investment alternatives.
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Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.
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This report presents a summary of the research conducted by the research team of the CRC project 2002-005-C, “Decision support tools for concrete infrastructure rehabilitation”. The project scope, objectives, significance and innovation and the research methodology is outlined in the introduction, which is followed by five chapters covering different aspects of the research completed. Major findings of a review of literature conducted covering both use of fibre reinforced polymer composites in rehabilitation of concrete bridge structures and decision support frameworks in civil infrastructure asset management is presented in chapter two. Case study of development of a strengthening scheme for the “Tenthill Creek bridge” is covered in the third chapter, which summarises the capacity assessment, traditional strengthening solution and the innovative solution using FRP composites. The fourth chapter presents the methodology for development of a user guide covering selection of materials, design and application of FRP in strengthening of concrete structures, which were demonstrated using design examples. Fifth chapter presents the methodology developed for evaluating whole of life cycle costing of treatment options for concrete bridge structures. The decision support software tool developed to compare different treatment options based on reliability based whole of life cycle costing will be briefly described in this chapter as well. The report concludes with a summary of findings and recommendations for future research.
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This paper describes the process adopted in developing an integrated decision support framework for planning of office building refurbishment projects, with specific emphasize on optimising rentable floor space, structural strengthening, residual life and sustainability. Expert opinion on the issues to be considered in a tool is being captured through the DELPHI process, which is currently ongoing. The methodology for development of the integrated tool will be validated through decisions taken during a case study project: refurbishment of CH1 building of Melbourne City Council, which will be followed through to completion by the research team. Current status of the CH1 planning will be presented in the context of the research project.
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This paper compares and reviews the recommendations and contents of the guide for the design and construction of externally bonded FRP systems for strengthening concrete structures reported by ACI committee 440 and technical report of Externally bonded FRP reinforcement for RC structures (FIB 14) in application of carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites in strengthening of an aging reinforced concrete headstock. The paper also discusses the background, limitations, strengthening for flexure and shear, and other related issues in use of FRP for strengthening of a typical reinforced concrete headstock structure such as durability, de-bonding, strengthening limits, fire and environmental conditions. A case study of strengthening of a bridge headstock using FRP composites is presented as a worked example in order to illustrate and compare the differences between these two design guidelines when used in conjunction with the philosophy of the Austroads (1992) bridge design code.
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Properly designed decision support environments encourage proactive and objective decision making. The work presented in this paper inquires into developing a decision support environment and a tool to facilitate objective decision making in dealing with road traffic noise. The decision support methodology incorporates traffic amelioration strategies both within and outside the road reserve. The project is funded by the CRC for Construction Innovation and conducted jointly by the RMIT University and the Queensland Department of Main Roads (MR) in collaboration with the Queensland Department of Public Works, Arup Pty Ltd., and the Queensland University of Technology. In this paper, the proposed decision support framework is presented in the way of a flowchart which enabled the development of the decision support tool (DST). The underpinning concept is to establish and retain an information warehouse for each critical road segment (noise corridor) for a given planning horizon. It is understood that, in current practice, some components of the approach described are already in place but not fully integrated and supported. It provides an integrated user-friendly interface between traffic noise modeling software, noise management criteria and cost databases.
Resumo:
The road and transport industry in Australia and overseas has come a long way to understanding the impact of road traffic noise on the urban environment. Most road authorities now have guidelines to help assess and manage the impact of road traffic noise on noise-sensitive areas and development. While several economic studies across Australia and overseas have tried to value the impact of noise on property prices, decision-makers investing in road traffic noise management strategies have relatively limited historic data and case studies to go on. The perceived success of a noise management strategy currently relies largely on community expectations at a given time, and is not necessarily based on the analysis of the costs and benefits, or the long-term viability and value to the community of the proposed treatment options. With changing trends in urban design, it is essential that the 'whole-of-life' costs and benefits of noise ameliorative treatment options and strategies be identified and made available for decisionmakers in future investment considerations. For this reason, CRC for Construction Innovation Australia funded a research project, Noise Management in Urban Environments to help decision-makers with future road traffic noise management investment decisions. RMIT University and the Queensland Department of Main Roads (QDMR) have conducted the research work, in collaboration with the Queensland Department of Public Works, ARUP Pty Ltd, and the Queensland University of Technology. The research has formed the basis for the development of a decision-support software tool, and helped collate technical and costing data for known noise amelioration treatment options. We intend that the decision support software tool (DST) should help an investment decision-maker to be better informed of suitable noise ameliorative treatment options on a project-by-project basis and identify likely costs and benefits associated with each of those options. This handbook has been prepared as a procedural guide for conducting a comparative assessment of noise ameliorative options. The handbook outlines the methodology and assumptions adopted in the decision-support framework for the investment decision-maker and user of the DST. The DST has been developed to provide an integrated user-friendly interface between road traffic noise modelling software, the relevant assessment criteria and the options analysis process. A user guide for the DST is incorporated in this handbook.
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The literature and anecdotal evidence suggests that that there is more to tenancy selection (firm location) than the profit maximisation drive that traditional neo-classical economic location theory suggests. In the first instance these models assume property markets are rational and perfectly competitive; the CBD office market is clearly neither rational nor perfectly competitive. This fact alone relegates such models to the margins of usefulness for an industry that seeks to satisfy tenant demand in order to optimise returns on capital invested. Acknowledgment of property market imperfections are universally accepted to the extent that all contemporary texts discuss the lack of a coherent centralised market place and incomplete and poorly disseminated information processes as fundamental inadequacies which characterise the property market inefficiencies. Less well researched are the facets of the market which allow the observer to determine market activity to be significantly irrational. One such facet is that of ‘decision maker preferences’. The decision to locate a business operation at one location as opposed to another seems ostensibly a routine choice based on short, medium and long term business objectives. These objectives are derived from a process of strategic planning by one or more individuals whose goal is held to be to optimise outcomes which benefit the business (and presumably those employed within it). However the decision making processes appear bounded by how firms function, the institutional context in which they operate, as well as by opportunistic behaviour by individual decision makers who allow personal preferences to infiltrate and ‘corrupt’ the process. In this way, history, culture, geography, as well as institutions all become significant to the extent that these influence and shape individual behaviour which in turn determine the morphology of individual preferences, as well as providing a conduit for them to take effect. This paper exams historical and current literature on the impact of individual behaviour in the decision making process within organisations as a precursor to an investigation of the tenancy decision making process within the CBD office market. Literature on the topic falls within a number of research disciplines, philosophy, psychology and economics to name a few.