System Dynamics and Scenario Planning: Implementation Challenges

In this paper we discuss key implementation challenges of a systems approach that combines System Dynamics, Scenario Planning and Qualitative Data Analysis methods in tackling a complex problem. We present the methods and the underlying framework. We then detail the main difficulties encountered in designing and planning the Scenario Planning workshop and how they were overcome, such as finding and involving the stakeholders and customising the process to fit within timing constraints. After presenting the results from this application, we argue that the consultants or system analysts need to engage with the stakeholders as process facilitators and not as system experts in order to gain commitment, trust and to improve information sharing. They also need be ready to adapt their tools and processes as well as their own thinking for more effective complex problem solving.

scenario-based interactive intention understanding in pen-based user interfaces

Interactive intention understanding is important for Pen-based User Interface (PUI). Many works on this topic are reported, and focus on handwriting or sketching recognition algorithms at the lexical layer. But these algorithms cannot totally solve the problem of intention understanding and can not provide the pen-based software with high usability. Hence, a scenario-based interactive intention understanding framework is presented in this paper, and is used to simulate human cognitive mechanisms and cognitive habits. By providing the understanding environment supporting the framework, we can apply the framework to the practical PUI system. The evaluation of the Scientific Training Management System for the Chinese National Diving Team shows that the framework is effective in improving the usability and enhancing the intention understanding capacity of this system.

scenario-focused development method for a pen-based user interface: model and applications

Pen-based user interface (PUI) has drawn significant interest, owing to its intuitiveness and convenience. While much of the research focuses on the technology, the usability of a PUI has been relatively low since human factors have not been considered sufficiently. Scenario-centric designs are ideal ways to improve usability. However, such designs possess some problems in practical use. To cope with these design issues, the concept of “interface scenarios” is proposed in to facilitate the interface design, and to help users understand the interaction process in such designs. The proposed scenario-focused development method for PUI is coupled with a practical application to show its effectiveness and usability.

Faddeev-Jackiw canonical path integral quantization for a general scenario, its proper vertices and generating functionals

We generalize the Faddeev-Jackiw canonical path integral quantization for the scenario of a Jacobian with J=1 to that for the general scenario of non-unit Jacobian, give the representation of the quantum transition amplitude with symplectic variables and obtain the generating functionals of the Green function and connected Green function. We deduce the unified expression of the symplectic field variable functions in terms of the Green function or the connected Green function with external sources. Furthermore, we generally get generating functionals of the general proper vertices of any n-points cases under the conditions of considering and not considering Grassmann variables, respectively; they are regular and are the simplest forms relative to the usual field theory.

Downhill kinetics of biomolecular interface binding: Globally connected scenario

We study the kinetics of the biomolecular binding process at the interface using energy landscape theory. The global kinetic connectivity case is considered for a downhill funneled energy landscape. By solving the kinetic master equation, the kinetic time for binding is obtained and shown to have a U-shape curve-dependence on the temperature. The kinetic minimum of the binding time monotonically decreases when the ratio of the underlying energy gap between native state and average non-native states versus the roughness or the fluctuations of the landscape increases. At intermediate temperatures,fluctuations measured by the higher moments of the binding time lead to non-Poissonian, non-exponential kinetics. At both high and very low temperatures, the kinetics is nearly Poissonian and exponential.

A scenario-driven decision support system for serious crime investigation

Q. Shen, J. Keppens, C. Aitken, B. Schafer, and M. Lee. A scenario driven decision support system for serious crime investigation. Law, Probability and Risk, 5(2):87-117, 2006. Sponsorship: UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council grant GR/S63267; partially supported by grant GR/S98603

Euro-Commentary : Scenario Analysis and Regional Economic Development: The Case of Mid Wales

Fuller-Love, Nerys, et al., 'Euro-Commentary : Scenario Analysis and Regional Economic Development: The Case of Mid Wales', European Urban and Regional Studies (2006) 13(2) pp.143-149 RAE2008

Entrepreneurship and rural economic development: a scenario analysis approach

Fuller-Love, N., Midmore, P., Thomas, D., Henley, A. (2006). Entrepreneurship and rural economic development: A scenario analysis approach. International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behaviour and Research, 12 (5), 289-305. RAE2008

CONSERVATIVE AND PROGFESSIVE ASPECTS OF THE SONATA FROM LATE BEETHOVEN TO PROKOFIEV

The term 'sonata' arose in the early seventeenth-century Baroque period and was originally used to distinguish instrumental (sonata) music from vocal music. Later. the sonata style, as a reliable yet flexible compositional framework, was extensively shaped and utilized throughout the Classical period. Subsequently, in the Romantic period, freer creative, individualistic. and expressive musical elements began to be preferred by composers in their use of harmonj., tone color, form, and rhythm. However, even during the revolutionary Romantic period in music. the compositions which did not have a pre-defined format (character pieces, etc) were often comfortably framed and limited within the recognizable boundaries provided by the Classical sonata style. The sonata format, when used as a tool in musical composition, provides logical boundaries that may serve to organize any unexpected emotional expressions on the part of the composer. Yet the sonata framework is also flexible enough to allow freedom of expression. In the Romantic period and beyond, composers had relied, some more than others, upon the sonata's adaptable blend of stability and flexibility. In my opinion, it is more persuasive to express oneself musically within the framework of an established musical style. Thus, I have chosen my dissertation topic as the performance of six pieces incorporating elements of the reliable and flexible sonata style. The sonata of each composer that I have selected clearly demonstrates a tension between logic and emotion expressed within the sonata framework. However, the compositions can be divided interestingly into two groups, such as 'conservative' and 'progressive' group. The 'conservative' group consists of composers who seemed to strive for greater freedom of self-expression within the constraints of the traditional sonata form. On the other hand, the 'progressive' group consists of composers who seemed more to rely upon the sonata form to rein in and add stability to their highly individual and emotional musical ideas. It is my hope that this project will provide a stimulating viewpoint from which to consider the evolution and utilization of the sonata style especially as it is applied to the composition and performance of these six diverse and interesting pieces.

Return to sport after open and microdiscectomy surgery versus conservative treatment for lumbar disc herniation: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Lumbar disc herniation has a prevalence of up to 58% in the athletic population. Lumbar discectomy is a common surgical procedure to alleviate pain and disability in athletes. We systematically reviewed the current clinical evidence regarding athlete return to sport (RTS) following lumbar discectomy compared to conservative treatment. METHODS: A computer-assisted literature search of MEDLINE, CINAHL, Web of Science, PEDro, OVID and PubMed databases (from inception to August 2015) was utilised using keywords related to lumbar disc herniation and surgery. The design of this systematic review was developed using the guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). Methodological quality of individual studies was assessed using the Downs and Black scale (0-16 points). RESULTS: The search strategy revealed 14 articles. Downs and Black quality scores were generally low with no articles in this review earning a high-quality rating, only 5 articles earning a moderate quality rating and 9 of the 14 articles earning a low-quality rating. The pooled RTS for surgical intervention of all included studies was 81% (95% CI 76% to 86%) with significant heterogeneity (I(2)=63.4%, p<0.001) although pooled estimates report only 59% RTS at same level. Pooled analysis showed no difference in RTS rate between surgical (84% (95% CI 77% to 90%)) and conservative intervention (76% (95% CI 56% to 92%); p=0.33). CONCLUSIONS: Studies comparing surgical versus conservative treatment found no significant difference between groups regarding RTS. Not all athletes that RTS return at the level of participation they performed at prior to surgery. Owing to the heterogeneity and low methodological quality of included studies, rates of RTS cannot be accurately determined.