Essays in equilibrium asset pricing

Introduction This dissertation consists of three essays in equilibrium asset pricing. The first chapter studies the asset pricing implications of a general equilibrium model in which real investment is reversible at a cost. Firms face higher costs in contracting than in expanding their capital stock and decide to invest when their productive capital is scarce relative to the overall capital of the economy. Positive shocks to the capital of the firm increase the size of the firm and reduce the value of growth options. As a result, the firm is burdened with more unproductive capital and its value lowers with respect to the accumulated capital. The optimal consumption policy alters the optimal allocation of resources and affects firm's value, generating mean-reverting dynamics for the M/B ratios. The model (1) captures convergence of price-to-book ratios -negative for growth stocks and positive for value stocks - (firm migration), (2) generates deviations from the classic CAPM in line with the cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns and (3) generates a non-monotone relationship between Tobin's q and conditional volatility consistent with the empirical evidence. The second chapter proposes a standard portfolio-choice problem with transaction costs and mean reversion in expected returns. In the presence of transactions costs, no matter how small, arbitrage activity does not necessarily render equal all riskless rates of return. When two such rates follow stochastic processes, it is not optimal immediately to arbitrage out any discrepancy that arises between them. The reason is that immediate arbitrage would induce a definite expenditure of transactions costs whereas, without arbitrage intervention, there exists some, perhaps sufficient, probability that these two interest rates will come back together without any costs having been incurred. Hence, one can surmise that at equilibrium the financial market will permit the coexistence of two riskless rates that are not equal to each other. For analogous reasons, randomly fluctuating expected rates of return on risky assets will be allowed to differ even after correction for risk, leading to important violations of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The combination of randomness in expected rates of return and proportional transactions costs is a serious blow to existing frictionless pricing models. Finally, in the last chapter I propose a two-countries two-goods general equilibrium economy with uncertainty about the fundamentals' growth rates to study the joint behavior of equity volatilities and correlation at the business cycle frequency. I assume that dividend growth rates jump from one state to other, while countries' switches are possibly correlated. The model is solved in closed-form and the analytical expressions for stock prices are reported. When calibrated to the empirical data of United States and United Kingdom, the results show that, given the existing degree of synchronization across these business cycles, the model captures quite well the historical patterns of stock return volatilities. Moreover, I can explain the time behavior of the correlation, but exclusively under the assumption of a global business cycle.

Dynamic models of energy allocation and investment

In dynamic models of energy allocation, assimilated energy is allocated to reproduction, somatic growth, maintenance or storage, and the allocation pattern can change with age. The expected evolutionary outcome is an optimal allocation pattern, but this depends on the environment experienced during the evolutionary process and on the fitness costs and benefits incurred by allocating resources in different ways. Here we review existing treatments which encompass some of the possibilities as regards constant or variable environments and their predictability or unpredictability, and the ways in which production rates and mortality rates depend on body size and composition and age and on the pattern of energy allocation. The optimal policy is to allocate resources where selection pressures are highest, and simultaneous allocation to several body subsystems and reproduction can be optimal if these pressures are equal. This may explain balanced growth commonly observed during ontogeny. Growth ceases at maturity in many models; factors favouring growth after maturity include non-linear trade-offs, variable season length, and production and mortality rates both increasing (or decreasing) functions of body size. We cannot yet say whether these are sufficient to account for the many known cases of growth after maturity and not all reasonable models have yet been explored. Factors favouring storage are also reviewed.

Centrality and investment strategies at the beginning of industrialisation in mid-nineteenth-century Catalonia

We apply social networks analysis to the study of an important database on investment and companies" share in the Catalonia (Spain) of the nineteenth century. In contrast with most of the existing related literature, usually addressing power relationships across administration boards, we focus on the structure of interactions among individual investors and firms. Centrality analysis uncovers interesting roles played by certain economic sectors (e.g. textile and financial). Furthermore, the diverse composition (in terms of economic activity) of communities in the network (subgroups more densely connected internally than with the rest of the network) reveals a high investment diversification, which nicely agrees with a known characteristic of traditional Catalan business strategies.

Financial integration, capital misallocation and global imbalances

This paper shows that in a stylized model with two countries, characterized by different levels of financial development, the following facts can be replicated: 1) persistent current account surpluses and 2) high TFP growth in China. Under autarky, entrepreneurs in the emerging country overinvest in short-term projects and underinvest in long-term projects because short-term assets help them secure long-term investments in the presence of credit constraints. This creates an aggregate misallocation of capital. When financial markets integrate, entrepreneurs with long-term projects can have access to cheaper short-term assets abroad, which leaves them more resources to invest in their projects. This both reduces capital misallocations and generates capital outflows.

The Spanish Infrastructure Stock, 1844-1935

This paper presents the first estimates of Spanish infrastructure stock and investment for the period 1845-1935. Several sources and techniques have been used in the estimation, and the new series are reasonably reliable to the standards of historical statistics. Two distinct periods may be distinguished in the series: the years before 1895 (characterized by the prominence of railroads) and the period 1895-1935 (when most investment was addressed to other assets). The new series allow a preliminary comparison of the Spanish infrastructure endowment with that of the most advanced countries, showing a gradual process of convergence before 1936.

The farthest need the best. Human capital composition and development-specific economic growth

We provide robust and compelling evidence of the marked impact of tertiary education on the economic growth of less developed countries and of its the relatively smaller impact on the growth of developed ones. Our results argue in favor of the accumulation of high skill levels especially in technologically under-developed countries and, contrary to common wisdom, independently of the fact that these economies might initially produce lower-technology goods or perform technology imitation. Our results are robust to the different measures used in proxying human capital and to the adjustments made for cross-country differences in the quality of education. Country-specific institutional quality, as well as other indicators including legal origin, religious fractionalization and openness to trade have been used to control for the robustness of the results. These factors are also shown to speed up technology convergence thereby confirming previous empirical studies. Our estimates tackle problems of endogeneity by adopting a variety of techniques, including instrumental variables -for both panel and cross-section analyses- and the two-step efficient dynamics system GMM.

Appropriate IPRs, Human Capital Composition and Economic Growth

We generalize a standard technology diffusion model by allowing for IPRs regimes to be endogenously defined by the development level of each country. Also we insert differences in the composition of human capital between North (leader) and South (followers) which shape the relative costs of innovation and imitation. Results show how an optimal growth trajectory is found for the follower country which initially imitates and that, once a "threshold development stage" is reached, optimally switches to innovation by fully enforcing IPRs achieving a higher proximity with the technology frontier in the long-run. Other scenarios, such as a premature increase in the enforcement of IPRs or a switch from imitation to innovation at early stages of development of the followers are found to be sub-optimal.

SOIL ORGANIC CARBON, CARBON STOCK AND THEIR RELATIONSHIPS TO PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES UNDER FOREST SOILS IN CENTRAL AMAZONIA

ABSTRACT The soil carbon under Amazonian forests has an important roles in global changing, making information on the soil content and depths of these stocks are considerable interest in efforts to quantify soil carbon emissions to the atmosphere.This study quantified the content and soil organic carbon stock under primary forest up to 2 m depth, at different topographic positions, at Cuieiras Biological Reserve, Manaus/ ZF2, km 34, in the Central Amazon, evaluating the soil attributes that may influence the permanence of soil carbon. Soil samples were collected along a transect of 850 m on topographic gradient Oxisol (plateau), Ultisol (slope) and Spodosol (valley). The stocks of soil carbon were obtained by multiplying the carbon content, soil bulk density and trickiness of soil layers. The watershed was delimited by using STRM and IKONOS images and the carbon contend obtained in the transects was extrapolated as a way to evaluate the potential for carbon stocks in an area of 2678.68 ha. The total SOC was greater in Oxisol followed by Spodosol and Ultisol. It was found direct correlations between the SOC and soil physical attributes. Among the clay soils (Oxisol and Ultisol), the largest stocks of carbon were observed in Oxisol at both the transect (90 to 175.5 Mg C ha-1) as the level of watershed (100.2 to 195.2 Mg C ha-1). The carbon stocks under sandy soil (Spodosol) was greater to clay soils along the transect (160-241 Mg C ha-1) and near them in the Watershed (96.90 to 146.01 Mg C ha-1).

Social capital, coping and information behaviour of long-term unemployed people in Finland

Avhandlingen studerar hur långtidsarbetslösa klarar av sin situation, hurdant socialt kapital och informationsbeteende de har, samt granskar hur de ovannämnda faktorerna är relaterade till varandra. Därtill undersöks om det finns skillnader mellan finsk- och svenskspråkiga långtidsarbetslösa på de här tre livsområdena. I undersökningen består socialt kapital av sociala relationer, deltagande i organisatoriska aktiviteter samt känslan av tillhörighet med olika grupper och samfund. Gällande informationsbeteende är fokus på vardaglig informationssökning, vilka källor som används, och hurdana problem man stöter på när man söker information. Som mest påfrestande upplevdes arbetslösheten av män, som var i början eller mitten av sin arbetskarriär. De äldre (över 55 år) verkade på många sätt klara av arbetslöshetssituationen bättre än de yngre, som drabbades hårdare av ekonomiska problem och stress. Kvinnor kunde bättre än män bibehålla en positiv inställning, de hade t.ex. starkare sociala nätverk som stöd, medan mäns sociala relationer i högre grad verkade vila på en arbetsgemenskap, som blev allt svagare i och med utdragen arbetslöshet. Yngre män upplevde också ofta att deras hälsa hade försämrats, när den för kvinnor och äldre arbetslösa i genomsnitt blev bättre. När arbetslösas bemästring av arbetslöshetssituationen, sociala relationer och informationssökning granskades, framgick att människor som var aktiva på ett livsområde också var aktiva på andra livsområden. I de flesta fall framkom inte några större skillnader mellan finsk- och svenskspråkiga arbetslösa. Beträffande informationssökning var de upplevda problemen ändå av diametralt motsatt karaktär – för svenskspråkiga åsamkade för lite tillgänglig information ofta problem, medan problemet för de finskspråkiga var att hitta det väsentliga i informationsflödet. Finskspråkiga kände sig också mera fast anknutna till sin boendemiljö och det finska samhället i stort, svenskspråkiga hade däremot i genomsnitt bredare och tätare sociala nätverk.

Capital Structure and Firm Growth: R&D Intensive Companies

The purpose of this study is to examine and explain firm`s growth impact on capital structure decision-making in research and development intensive companies. Many studies claim that R&D has a pivotal impact on capital structure decisions, but corporate finance theories have often failed to explain these observed patterns. As sales growth is an important concept and objective for R&D firms, it is logical to assume that it plays a vital role in capital structure decisions. This study applies nomothetic research approach. The theoretical part employs a formal conceptual analysis in order to develop the propositions that are tested with empirical data. The empirical part consists of the analysis of three companies; the data is obtained from the annual reports over the period 2003 – 2008. The companies operate in IT- or ICT-industry and are publicly listed. The method for analyzing the case data is based on the financial indicators, which are obtained from the financials of the case companies. These economic indicators describe the capital structure and the financial decision-making of the firms. The method relates to the quantitative studies. Yet, this study extends the analysis beyond the indicators. Specifically, this study addresses the question of what is behind the economic indicators, therefore combining aspects of quantitative and qualitative analysis. The firms examined in this study seem to prefer internal finance during growth. However, external finance seems to be a catalyst for sales growth. Firms strongly prefer equity financing. In growth, the use of equity per capital either increases or stays in a constant level. Over the period 2003 – 2008, the firms were often associated to equity related transactions and short-term debt. Short-term debt was used as a substitute of long-term debt and equity. The case firms also adjusted their capital structure – these adjustments were carried out with short-term debt or equity. The case data also provides implications for the growth signal theory that was developed in this study. Based on the econometric indicators, arguments can be made that equity investors are `attracted` to growing R&D firms. This is because growth helps investors perceive the true type of firm. The findings of this study are best explained by the trade-off theory and the pecking order theory. These corporate finance theories are considered as mainstream. Little support can be found to the implications of the signaling theory and market timing theory.

Time Varying Conditional Correlation Between Stock And Bond Returns: Evidence From CIVETS Nations

This thesis estimates long-run time variant conditional correlation between stock and bond returns of CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa) nations. Further, aims to analyse the presence of asymmetric volatility effect in both asset returns, as well as, obverses increment or decrement in conditional correlation during pre-crisis and crisis period, which lead to make a reliable diversification decision. The Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH model of Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model (Engle 2002), and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) GARCH model of Cappiello, Engle, and Sheppard (2006) were implemented in the study. The analyses present strong evidence of time-varying conditional correlation in CIVETS markets, excluding Vietnam, during 2005-2013. In addition, negative innovation effects were found in both conditional variance and correlation of the asset returns. The results of this study recommend investors to include financial assets from these markets in portfolios, in order to obtain better stock-bond diversification benefits, especially during high volatility periods.

Issues in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: A critical discourse analysis

Negotiating trade agreements is an important part of government trade policies, economic planning and part of the globally operating trading system of today. European Union and the United States have been active in the formation of trade agreements in global comparison. Now these two economic giants are engaged in negotiations to form their own trade agreement, the so called Transnational Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The purpose of this thesis is to understand the reasons for making a trade agreement between two economic areas and understanding the issues it may include in the case of the TTIP. The TTIP has received a great deal of attention in the media. The opinions towards the partnership have been extreme, and the debate has been heated. The purpose of this study is to introduce the nature of the public discussion regarding the TTIP from Spring 2013 until 2014. The research problem is to find out what are the main issues in the agreement and what are the values influencing them. The study was conducted applying methods of critical discourse analysis to the chosen data. This includes gathering the issues from the data based on the attention each has received in the discussion. The underlying motives for raising different issues were analysed by investigating the authors’ position in the political, economic and social circuits. The perceived economic impacts of the TTIP are also under analysis with the same criteria. Some of the most respected economic newspapers globally were included in the research material as well as papers or reports published by the EU and global organisations. The analysis indicates a clear dichotomy of the attitudes towards the TTIP. Key problems include lack of transparency in the negotiations, the misunderstood investor-state dispute settlement, the constantly expanding regulatory issues and the risk of protectionism. The theory and data does suggest that the removal of tariffs is an effective tool for reaching economic gains in the TTIP and even more effective would be the reducing of non-tariff barriers, such as protectionism. Critics are worried over the rising influence of corporations over governments. The discourse analysis reveals that the supporters of the TTIP have values related to increasing welfare through economic growth. Critics do not deny the economic benefits but raise the question of inequality as a consequence. Overall they represent softer values such as sustainable development and democracy as a counter-attack to the corporate values of efficiency and the maximising of profits.

Return and Volatility spillovers among stock and Foreign Exchange Markets: Empirical Evidence from selected African Markets

Return and volatility dynamics in financial markets across the world have recently become important for the purpose of asset pricing, portfolio allocation and risk management. However, volatility, which come about as a result of the actions of market participants can help adapt to different situations and perform when it really matters. With recent development and liberalization among financial markets in emerging and frontier markets, the need for how the equity and foreign exchange markets interact and the extent to which return and volatility spillover are spread across countries is of importance to investors and policy makers at large. Financial markets in Africa have received attention leading to investors diversifying into them in times of crisis and contagion effects in developed countries. Regardless of the benefits these markets may offer, investors must be wary of issues such as thin trading, volatility that exists in the equity and currency markets and its related fluctuations. The study employs a VAR-GARCH BEKK model to study the return and volatility dynamics between the stock and foreign exchange sectors and among the equity markets of Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia. The main findings suggest a higher dependence of own return in the stock markets and a one way return spillover from the currencies to the equity markets except for South Africa which has a weaker interrelation among the two markets. There is a relatively limited integration among the equity markets. Return and volatility spillover is mostly uni-directional except for a bi-directional relationship between the equity markets of Egypt and Tunisia. The study implication still proves a benefit for portfolio managers diversifying in these African equity markets, since they are independent of each other and may not be highly affected by the influx of negative news from elsewhere. However, there is the need to be wary of return and volatility spillover between the equity and currency markets, hence devising better hedging strategies to curb them.