948 resultados para best estimate method


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In this paper I use Taylor's (2001) model and Vector Auto Regressions to shed some light on the evolution of some key macroeconomic variables after the Central Bank of Brazil, through the COPOM, increases the target interest rate by 1%. From a quantitative perspective, the best estimate from the empírical analysis, obtained with a 1994 : 2 - 2004 : 2 subsample of the data, is that GDP goes through an accumulated decline, over the next four years, around 0.08%. Innovations to interest rates explain around 9.2% of the forecast erro r of GDP.

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Gene therapy is based on the transfer of exogenous genetic material into cells or tissues in order to correct, supplement or silencing a particular gene. To achieve this goal, efficient vehicles, viral or non-viral, should be developed. The aim of this work was to produce and evaluate a nanoemulsion system as a possible carrier for no-viral gene therapy able to load a plasmid model (pIRES2-EGFP). The nanoemulsion was produced by the sonication method, after been choose in a pseudo-ternary phase diagram build with 5 % of Captex 355®, 1.2 % of Tween 80®, 0.8 % of Span 80®, 0.16% of stearylamine and water (to 100 %). Measurements of droplet size, polydispersity index (PI), zeta potential, pH and conductivity, were performed to characterize the system. Results showed droplets smaller than 200 nm (PI < 0.2) and zeta potential > 30 mV. The formulation pH was near to 7.0 and conductivity was that expected to oil in water systems (70 to 90 μS/s) A scale up study, the stability of the system and the best sterilization method were also evaluated. We found that the system may be scaled up considering the time of sonication according to the volume produced, filtration was the best sterilization process and nanoemulsions were stable by 180 days at 4 ºC. Once developed, the complexation efficiency of the plasmid (pDNA) by the system was tested by agarose gel electrophoresis retardation assay.. The complexation efficiency increases when stearylamine was incorporated into aqueous phase (from 46 to 115 ng/μL); regarding a contact period (nanoemulsion / pDNA) of at least 2 hours in an ice bath, for complete lipoplex formation. The nanoemulsion showed low toxicity in MRC-5 cells at the usual transfection concentration, 81.49 % of survival was found. So, it can be concluded that a nanoemulsion in which a plasmid model was loaded was achieved. However, further studies concerning transfectation efficiency should be performed to confirm the system as non-viral gene carrier

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In this paper an efficient algorithm for probabilistic analysis of unbalanced three-phase weakly-meshed distribution systems is presented. This algorithm uses the technique of Two-Point Estimate Method for calculating the probabilistic behavior of the system random variables. Additionally, the deterministic analysis of the state variables is performed by means of a Compensation-Based Radial Load Flow (CBRLF). Such load flow efficiently exploits the topological characteristics of the network. To deal with distributed generation, a strategy to incorporate a simplified model of a generator in the CBRLF is proposed. Thus, depending on the type of control and generator operation conditions, the node with distributed generation can be modeled either as a PV or PQ node. To validate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm, the IEEE 37 bus test system is used. The probabilistic results are compared with those obtained using the Monte Carlo method.

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Background: An impairing preoccupation with a nonexistent or slight defect in appearance is the core symptom of body dysmorphic disorder (ODD), a psychiatric condition common in dermatology settings.Objective: We sought to determine the prevalence of ODD in dermatologic patients, comparing general and cosmetic settings, and describing some demographic and clinical characteristics.Methods: In all, 300 patients were consecutively assessed. Screening and diagnoses were performed with validated instruments plus a best estimate diagnosis procedure. The final sample comprised 150 patients in the cosmetic group, 150 patients in the general dermatology group, and 50 control subjects. Standard statistical analyses were performed (chi(2), nonparametric tests, logistic regression).Results: The current prevalence was higher in the cosmetic group (14.0%) compared with general (6.7%) and control (2.0%) groups. No patient had a previous diagnosis. Frequently the reason for seeking dermatologic treatment was not the main ODD preoccupation. Patients with ODD from the cosmetic group were in general unsatisfied with the results of dermatologic treatments.Limitations: Cross-sectional study conducted in a university hospital is a limitation. It is uncertain if the findings can be generalized. Retrospective data regarding previous treatments are not free from bias.Conclusions: BUD is relatively common in a dermatologic setting, especially among patients seeking cosmetic treatments. These patients have some different features compared with general dermatology patients. Dermatologists should be aware of the clinical characteristics of ODD to identify and refer these patients to mental health professionals. (J Am Acad Dermatol 2010;63:235-43.)

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Objective: This study aims to compare the prevalence of obsessive-compulsive spectrum disorders (OCSD) in psychiatric outpatients with and without a history of rheumatic fever (RF).Methods: An analytical cross-sectional study assessing a large sample of consecutive psychiatric outpatients at a Brazilian private practice was conducted during a 10-year period. Psychiatric diagnoses were made by a senior psychiatrist based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition. Best-estimate diagnosis procedure was also performed.Results: The total sample comprised 678 subjects, 13 of whom (1.92%) presented with a previous history of RF. This group showed a higher prevalence of subclinical obsessive-compulsive disorder (P=.025) and OCSD (P=.007) when compared to individuals with no such history.Conclusions: A previous history of RF was associated with OCSD. These results suggest that clinicians should be encouraged to actively investigate obsessive-compulsive symptoms and related disorders in patients with a positive history of RF. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.

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Visual estimates are generally used for counts of horn flies, Haematobia irritans (L.) and play an important role as an instrument to quantify fly populations in scientific studies. In this study, horn fly counts were performed on 30 Nelore steers in the municipality of Aracatuba, SP Brazil, from January to December 1998. Flies were counted weekly by two methods: the estimate method whereby estimates of the number of flies on one side of the animal are obtained by visual observation, and the filming method whereby images of flies from both sides of the animal are recorded with a video camera. The tape was then played on a videotape recorder coupled to a television and the flies were counted on the screen. Both methods showed variations in horn fly population density during the period studied. However, significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed between the two methods with the filming method permitting the visualization of a larger number of flies than the estimate method. In addition, the filming method permitted safe and reliable counts hours after the images were taken, with the advantage that the tape can serve as an archive for random re-counts. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

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The population density of horn flies was evaluated in the year 1998 in the municipality of Aracatuba, São Paulo Brazil, in relation to temperature and rainfall conditions. Two lots of 30 Nellore steers (Bos indicus) were used which had no insecticidal treatment and were naturally infested with horn flies. The infestations were assessed by two counting methods, i.e., the traditional estimate method and the filming method. The highest fly frequencies were recorded in spring, summer, autumn and the lowest frequencies were recorded in winter. The increase in fly number was positively correlated (P < 0.05) with rainfall. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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The yacon (Polymnia sonchifolia) is used largely for the high fructan content of its tubers; consequently, it is a good alternative for diabetics. One of the more important restricting factors of the commercial production of yacon is its susceptibility to nematode attack. This, as well as germplasm bank maintenance, justifies the importance of in vitro propagation of this species. In this way, our work aimed to verify the best asepsis method for yacon for the in vitro establishment from the rhizophore and the axillary buds of the aerial parts, and the effect of benzylaminopurine (BAP) addition to the culture medium. The number of contaminated cultures, the occurrence of phenolic oxidation and the occurrence of a vitreous aspect, showed differences with bud source, immersion time for asepsis, and BAP use. The results contribute to establishing a yacon micro propagation procedure.

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In this paper a framework based on the decomposition of the first-order optimality conditions is described and applied to solve the Probabilistic Power Flow (PPF) problem in a coordinated but decentralized way in the context of multi-area power systems. The purpose of the decomposition framework is to solve the problem through a process of solving smaller subproblems, associated with each area of the power system, iteratively. This strategy allows the probabilistic analysis of the variables of interest, in a particular area, without explicit knowledge of network data of the other interconnected areas, being only necessary to exchange border information related to the tie-lines between areas. An efficient method for probabilistic analysis, considering uncertainty in n system loads, is applied. The proposal is to use a particular case of the point estimate method, known as Two-Point Estimate Method (TPM), rather than the traditional approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. The main feature of the TPM is that it only requires resolve 2n power flows for to obtain the behavior of any random variable. An iterative coordination algorithm between areas is also presented. This algorithm solves the Multi-Area PPF problem in a decentralized way, ensures the independent operation of each area and integrates the decomposition framework and the TPM appropriately. The IEEE RTS-96 system is used in order to show the operation and effectiveness of the proposed approach and the Monte Carlo simulations are used to validation of the results. © 2011 IEEE.

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This paper presents an approach for probabilistic analysis of unbalanced three-phase weakly meshed distribution systems considering uncertainty in load demand. In order to achieve high computational efficiency this approach uses both an efficient method for probabilistic analysis and a radial power flow. The probabilistic approach used is the well-known Two-Point Estimate Method. Meanwhile, the compensation-based radial power flow is used in order to extract benefits from the topological characteristics of the distribution systems. The generation model proposed allows modeling either PQ or PV bus on the connection point between the network and the distributed generator. In addition allows control of the generator operating conditions, such as the field current and the power delivery at terminals. Results on test with IEEE 37 bus system is given to illustrate the operation and effectiveness of the proposed approach. A Monte Carlo Simulations method is used to validate the results. © 2011 IEEE.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Pós-graduação em Enfermagem (mestrado profissional) - FMB

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Considerando a baixa concentração espermática necessária para promover a fecundação de oócitos na FIV, objetivou-se com este trabalho avaliar a qualidade da dose de sêmen bovino criopreservada após o seu fracionamento em duas partes visando um maior aproveitamento da mesma em programa de PIV. O experimento foi realizado utilizando 110 doses de sêmen congeladas em palhetas de 0,25 mL proveniente de 10 touros, que foram divididas em etapas: Uma dose representou o grupo controle, 5 foram destinadas para o grupo de descongelação direta (DD) e 5 para o grupo de descongelação indireta (DI). As doses foram fracionadas em duas partes, formando para cada grupo dois subgrupos, unidade da esfera (UE) e unidade do álcool polivinílico (UAP). O primeiro subgrupo teve análise imediata; e o segundo foi analisado após 24h de armazenamento em N2. Os dados foram analisados por estatística descritiva, teste de Kruskal-Wallis e SNK (P < 0,05), apresentando motilidade e vigor: DI- imediata: 48,8% / 2,4; DI-24h: 54,2% / 2,5; DD-imediata: 67,8% / 3,0; DD-24h: 69,6% / 3,0; Controle: 70% / 3,0. Para lesão de acrossoma e integridade da membrana: DI- imediata: 24,3% / 40,5%; DI-24h: 36,2% / 44,3%; DD-imediata: 12,8% / 63,6%; DD-24h: 12,6% / 59,0%; controle: 11,9% / 57,5%. Média de concentração espermática: DI- imediata: 6,1×106 DI-24h: 7,2×106; DD- imediata: 8.2×106; DD-24h: 7.8×106 espermatozóide/fração de dose. Deste modo para o fracionamento da dose de sêmen bovino criopreservado o melhor método de descongelação foi o direto, uma vez que apresentou os melhores resultados em todos os parâmetros analisados.