Expectation and variation with a virtual die

By the time students reach the middle years they have experienced many chance activities based on dice. Common among these are rolling one die to explore the relationship of frequency and theoretical probability, and rolling two dice and summing the outcomes to consider their probabilities. Although dice may be considered overused by some, the advantage they offer is a familiar context within which to explore much more complex concepts. If the basic chance mechanism of the device is understood, it is possible to enter quickly into an arena of more complex concepts. This is what happened with a two hour activity engaged in by four classes of Grade 6 students in the same school. The activity targeted the concepts of variation and expectation. The teachers held extended discussions with their classes on variation and expectation at the beginning of the activity, with students contributing examples of the two concepts from their own experience. These notions are quite sophisticated for Grade 6, but the underlying concepts describe phenomena that students encounter every day. For example, time varies continuously; sporting results vary from game to game; the maximum temperature varies from day to day. However, there is an expectation about tomorrow’s maximum temperature based on the expert advice from the weather bureau. There may also be an expectation about a sporting result based on the participants’ previous results. It is this juxtaposition that makes life interesting. Variation hence describes the differences we see in phenomena around us. In a scenario displaying variation, expectation describes the effort to characterise or summarise the variation and perhaps make a prediction about the message arising from the scenario. The explicit purpose of the activity described here was to use the familiar scenario of rolling a die to expose these two concepts. Because the students had previously experienced rolling physical dice they knew instinctively about the variation that occurs across many rolls and about the theoretical expectation that each side should “come up” one-sixth of the time. They had observed the instances of the concepts in action, but had not consolidated the underlying terminology to describe it. As the two concepts are so fundamental to understanding statistics, we felt it would be useful to begin building in the familiar environment of rolling a die. Because hand-held dice limit the explorations students can undertake, the classes used the soft-ware TinkerPlots (Konold & Miller, 2011) to simulate rolling a die multiple times.

Motivation and behavioural patterns of students accessing a peer-facilitated support for learning program

This paper describes the development and use of personas, a Human Computer Interaction (HCI) research methodology, within the STIMulate peer learning program, in order to better understand student behaviour patterns and motivations. STIMulate is a support for learning program at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) in Brisbane, Australia. The program provides assistance in mathematics, science and information technology (IT) for course work students. A STIMulate space is provided for students to study and obtain one-on-one assistance from Peer Learning Facilitators (PLFs), who are experienced students that have excelled in relevant subject areas. This paper describes personas – archetypal users - that represent the motivations and behavioural patterns of students that utilise STIMulate (particularly the IT stream). The personas were developed based on interviews with PLFs, and subsequently validated by a PLF focus group. Seven different personas were developed. The personas enable us to better understand the characteristics of the students utilising the STIMulate program. The research provides a clearer picture of visiting student motivations and behavioural patterns. This has helped us identify gaps in the services provided, and be more aware of our assumptions about students. The personas have been deployed in PLF training programs, to help PLFs provide a better service to the students. The research findings suggest further study on the resonances between some students and PLFs, which we would like to better elicit.

The business implications of consumers’ behavioural patterns on a magazine website

This paper explores consumer behavioural patterns on a magazine website. By using a unique dataset of real-life click stream data from 295 magazine website visitors, individual sessions are grouped according to the different sections visited on the websites. Interesting behavioural patterns are noted: most importantly, 86 % of all sessions only visit the blogs. This means that the visitors are not exposed to any editorial content at all, and choose to avoid also commercial contents. Sessions visiting editorial content, commercial content or social media links are very few in numbers (each 1 per cent or less of the sessions), thus giving only very limited support to the magazine business model. We noted that consumer behaviour on the magazine website seems to be very goal-oriented and instrumental, rather than exploratory and ritualized. This paper contributes to the current knowledge of media management by shedding light on consumer behaviour on media websites, and opening up the challenges with current media business models. From a more practical perspective, our data questions the general assumption of online platforms as supporter of the print business.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Roles of forced nicotine exposure and Comt gene disruption in the development of addiction-related behavioural and neurochemical changes in mice

Activation of midbrain dopamine systems is thought to be critically involved in the addictive properties of abused substances. Drugs of abuse increase dopamine release in the nucleus accumbens and dorsal striatum, which are the target areas of mesolimbic and nigrostriatal dopamine pathways, respectively. Dopamine release in the nucleus accumbens is thought to mediate the attribution of incentive salience to rewards, and dorsal striatal dopamine release is involved in habit formation. In addition, changes in the function of prefrontal cortex (PFC), the target area of mesocortical dopamine pathway, may skew information processing and memory formation such that the addict pays an abnormal amount of attention to drug-related cues. In this study, we wanted to explore how long-term forced oral nicotine exposure or the lack of catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT), one of the dopamine metabolizing enzymes, would affect the functioning of these pathways. We also wanted to find out how the forced nicotine exposure or the lack of COMT would affect the consumption of nicotine, alcohol, or cocaine. First, we studied the effect of forced chronic nicotine exposure on the sensitivity of dopamine D2-like autoreceptors in microdialysis and locomotor activity experiments. We found that the sensitivity of these receptors was unchanged after forced oral nicotine exposure, although an increase in the sensitivity was observed in mice treated with intermittent nicotine injections twice daily for 10 days. Thus, the effect of nicotine treatment on dopamine autoreceptor sensitivity depends on the route, frequency, and time course of drug administration. Second, we investigated whether the forced oral nicotine exposure would affect the reinforcing properties of nicotine injections. The chronic nicotine exposure did not significantly affect the development of conditioned place preference to nicotine. In the intravenous self-administration paradigm, however, the nicotine-exposed animals self-administered nicotine at a lower unit dose than the control animals, indicating that their sensitivity to the reinforcing effects of nicotine was enhanced. Next, we wanted to study whether the Comt gene knock-out animals would be a suitable model to study alcohol and cocaine consumption or addiction. Although previous work had shown male Comt knock-out mice to be less sensitive to the locomotor-activating effects of cocaine, the present study found that the lack of COMT did not affect the consumption of cocaine solutions or the development of cocaine-induced place preference. However, the present work did find that male Comt knock-out mice, but not female knock-out mice, consumed ethanol more avidly than their wild-type littermates. This finding suggests that COMT may be one of the factors, albeit not a primary one, contributing to the risk of alcoholism. Last, we explored the effect of COMT deficiency on dorsal striatal, accumbal, and prefrontal cortical dopamine metabolism under no-net-flux conditions and under levodopa load in freely-moving mice. The lack of COMT did not affect the extracellular dopamine concentrations under baseline conditions in any of the brain areas studied. In the prefrontal cortex, the dopamine levels remained high for a prolonged time after levodopa treatment in male, but not female, Comt knock-out mice. COMT deficiency induced accumulation of 3,4-dihydroxyphenylacetic acid, which increased further under levodopa load. Homovanillic acid was not detectable in Comt knock-out animals either under baseline conditions or after levodopa treatment. Taken together, the present results show that although forced chronic oral nicotine exposure affects the reinforcing properties of self-administered nicotine, it is not an addiction model itself. COMT seems to play a minor role in dopamine metabolism and in the development of addiction under baseline conditions, indicating that dopamine function in the brain is well-protected from perturbation. However, the role of COMT becomes more important when the dopaminergic system is challenged, such as by pharmacological manipulation.

Relationships between behavioural traits and liveweight performance of Brahman steers in a feedlot

Large variations in growth and feed conversion efficiency occur between cattle in feedlots. We aimed to test whether different behaviours of cattle may reflect some of these production differences.

Cortical processing of musical pitch as reflected by behavioural and electrophysiological evidence

In a musical context, the pitch of sounds is encoded according to domain-general principles not confined to music or even to audition overall but common to other perceptual and cognitive processes (such as multiple pattern encoding and feature integration), and to domain-specific and culture-specific properties related to a particular musical system only (such as the pitch steps of the Western tonal system). The studies included in this thesis shed light on the processing stages during which pitch encoding occurs on the basis of both domain-general and music-specific properties, and elucidate the putative brain mechanisms underlying pitch-related music perception. Study I showed, in subjects without formal musical education, that the pitch and timbre of multiple sounds are integrated as unified object representations in sensory memory before attentional intervention. Similarly, multiple pattern pitches are simultaneously maintained in non-musicians' sensory memory (Study II). These findings demonstrate the degree of sophistication of pitch processing at the sensory memory stage, requiring neither attention nor any special expertise of the subjects. Furthermore, music- and culture-specific properties, such as the pitch steps of the equal-tempered musical scale, are automatically discriminated in sensory memory even by subjects without formal musical education (Studies III and IV). The cognitive processing of pitch according to culture-specific musical-scale schemata hence occurs as early as at the sensory-memory stage of pitch analysis. Exposure and cortical plasticity seem to be involved in musical pitch encoding. For instance, after only one hour of laboratory training, the neural representations of pitch in the auditory cortex are altered (Study V). However, faulty brain mechanisms for attentive processing of fine-grained pitch steps lead to inborn deficits in music perception and recognition such as those encountered in congenital amusia (Study VI). These findings suggest that predispositions for exact pitch-step discrimination together with long-term exposure to music govern the acquisition of the automatized schematic knowledge of the music of a particular culture that even non-musicians possess.

Discovering behavioural interfaces for overloaded web services

The growth of APIs and Web services on the Internet, especially through larger enterprise systems increasingly being leveraged for Cloud and software-as-a-service opportuni- ties, poses challenges to improving the efficiency of integration with these services. Interfaces of enterprise systems are typically larger, more complex and overloaded, with single operation having multiple data entities and parameter sets, supporting varying requests, and reflecting versioning across different system releases, compared to fine-grained operations of contemporary interfaces. We propose a technique to support the refactoring of service interfaces by deriving business entities and their relationships. In this paper, we focus on the behavioural aspects of service interfaces, aiming to discover the sequential dependencies of operations (otherwise known as protocol extraction) based on the entities and relationships derived. Specifically, we propose heuristics according to these relationships, and in turn, deriving permissible orders in which operations are invoked. As a result of this, service operations can be refactored on business entity CRUD lines, with explicit behavioural protocols as part of an interface definition. This supports flexible service discovery, composition and integration. A prototypical implementation and analysis of existing Web services, including those of commercial logistic systems (Fedex), are used to validate the algorithms proposed through the paper.

A comparison of welfare outcomes for weaner and mature Bos indicus bulls surgically or tension band castrated with or without analgesia: 1. Behavioural responses

Tension-band castration of cattle is gaining favour because it is relatively simple to perform and is promoted by retailers of the devices as a humane castration method. Furthermore, retailers encourage delaying castration to exploit the superior growth rates of bulls compared with steers. Two experiments were conducted, under tropical conditions, comparing tension banding and surgical castration of weaner (7–10 months old) and mature (22–25 months old) Bos indicus bulls with and without pain management (ketoprofen or saline injected intramuscularly immediately prior to castration). Welfare outcomes were assessed using a wide range of measures; this paper reports on the behavioural responses of the bulls and an accompanying paper reports on other measures. Behavioural data were collected at intervals by direct observation and continuously via data loggers on the hind leg of the bulls to 4 weeks post-castration. Tension-banded bulls performed less movement in the crush/chute than the surgically castrated bulls during the procedures (weaner: 2.63 vs. 5.69, P < 0.001; mature: 1.00 vs. 5.94; P < 0.001 for tension-band and surgical castration, respectively), indicating that tension banding was less painful then surgical castration during conduct. To 1.5 h post-castration, tension-banded bulls performed significantly (all P < 0.05) more active behavioural responses indicative of pain compared with surgical castrates, e.g., percentage time walking forwards (weaner: 15.0% vs. 8.1%; mature: 22.3% vs. 15.1%), walking backwards (weaner: 4.3% vs. 1.4%; mature: 2.4% vs. 0.5%), numbers of tail movements (weaner: 21.9 vs. 1.4; mature: 51.5 vs. 39.4) and leg movements (weaner: 12.9 vs. 0.9; mature: 8.5 vs. 1.5), respectively. In contrast, surgically castrated bulls performed more immobile behaviours compared with tension-banded bulls (e.g., standing in mature bulls was 56.6% vs. 34.4%, respectively, P = 0.002). Ketoprofen administration appeared effective in moderating pain-related behaviours in the mature bulls from 1.5 to 3 h, e.g., reducing abnormal standing (0.0% vs. 7.7%, P = 0.009) and increasing feeding (12.7% vs. 0.0%, P = 0.048) in NSAID- and saline-treated bulls, respectively. There were few behavioural differences subsequent to 24 h post-castration, but some limited evidence of chronic pain (3–4 weeks post-castration) with both methods. Interpretation, however, was difficult from behaviours alone. Thus, tension banding is less painful than surgical castration during conduct of the procedures and pain-related behavioural responses differ with castration method (active restlessness in response to tension banding and minimisation of movement in response to surgical castration). Ketoprofen administered immediately prior to castration was somewhat effective in reducing pain, particularly in the mature bulls.

Factors affecting attitudes and behavioural intention towards social networking advertising: A case of Facebook users in South Korea

This study examined factors (e.g., ad values and social networking advertising characteristics) influencing consumers' attitudes and behavioural intention towards three types of social networking advertising (SNA) on Facebook – home page ad, social impression ad, and organic impression ad. Findings demonstrate that peer influence had the most significant impacts on attitude and behavioural intention across all types of SNA. The significant interaction term of invasiveness and privacy concern indicates that both attitude and behavioural intention were diminished, particularly when perceived invasiveness and privacy concern were high simultaneously. In addition, results suggest that attitudes towards the ad played a mediating role between SNA characteristics and behavioural intention. Lastly, among the types of SNA, consumers preferred organic impression ads that featured friends' names on their newsfeed more than paid ads located on the sidebar of their Facebook pages.

Essays on Misplanning Wealth and Health: A Behavioural Approach

The dissertation consists of three essays on misplanning wealth and health accumulation. The conventional economics assumes that individual's intertemporal preferences are exponential (exponential preferences, EP). Recent findings in behavioural economics have shown that, actually, people do discount near future relatively heavier than distant future. This implies hyperbolic intertemporal preferences (HP). Essays I and II concentrate especially on the effects of a delayed completion of tasks, a feature of behaviour that HP enables. Essay III uses current Finnish data to analyse the evolvement of the quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and inconsistencies in measuring that. Essay I studies the existence effects of a lucrative retirement savings program (SP) on the retirement savings of different individual types having HP. If the individual does not know that he will have HP also in the future, i.e. he is the naïve, for certain conditions, he delays the enrolment on SP until he abandons it. Very interesting finding is that the naïve retires then poorer in the presence than in the absence of SP. For the same conditions, the individual who knows that he will have HP also in the future, i.e. he is the sophisticated, gains from the existence of SP, and retires with greater retirement savings in the presence than in the absence of SP. Finally, capabilities to learn from past behaviour and about intertemporal preferences improve possibilities to gain from the existence but an adequate time to learn must be then guaranteed. Essay II studies delayed doctor's visits, theirs effects on the costs of a public health care system and government's attempts to control patient behaviour and fund the system. The controlling devices are a consultation fee and a deductible for that. The deductible is effective only for a patient whose diagnosis reveals a disease that would not get cured without the doctor's visit. The naives delay their visits the longest while EP-patients are the quickest visitors. To control the naives, the government should implement a low fee and a high deductible, while for the sophisticates the opposite is true. Finally, if all the types exist in an economy then using an incorrect conventional assumption that all individuals have EP leads to worse situation and requires higher tax rates than assuming incorrectly but unconventionally that only the naives exists. Essay III studies the development of QALYs in Finland 1995/96-2004. The essay concentrates on developing a consistent measure, i.e. independent of discounting, for measuring the age and gender specific QALY-changes and their incidences. For the given time interval, use of a relative change out of an attainable change seems to be almost intact to discounting and reveals that the greatest gains are for older age groups.

Evaluation of methods and applications for behavioural profiling of transgenic mice

During the last 10-15 years interest in mouse behavioural analysis has evolved considerably. The driving force is development in molecular biological techniques that allow manipulation of the mouse genome by changing the expression of genes. Therefore, with some limitations it is possible to study how genes participate in regulation of physiological functions and to create models explaining genetic contribution to various pathological conditions. The first aim of our study was to establish a framework for behavioural phenotyping of genetically modified mice. We established comprehensive battery of tests for the initial screening of mutant mice. These included tests for exploratory and locomotor activity, emotional behaviour, sensory functions, and cognitive performance. Our interest was in the behavioural patterns of common background strains used for genetic manipulations in mice. Additionally we studied the behavioural effect of sex differences, test history, and individual housing. Our findings highlight the importance of careful consideration of genetic background for analysis of mutant mice. It was evident that some backgrounds may mask or modify the behavioural phenotype of mutants and thereby lead to false positive or negative findings. Moreover, there is no universal strain that is equally suitable for all tests, and using different backgrounds allows one to address possible phenotype modifying factors. We discovered that previous experience affected performance in several tasks. The most sensitive traits were the exploratory and emotional behaviour, as well as motor and nociceptive functions. Therefore, it may be essential to repeat some of the tests in naïve animals for assuring the phenotype. Social isolation for a long time period had strong effects on exploratory behaviour, but also on learning and memory. All experiments revealed significant interactions between strain and environmental factors (test history or housing condition) indicating genotype-dependent effects of environmental manipulations. Several mutant line analyses utilize this information. For example, we studied mice overexpressing as well as those lacking extracellular matrix protein heparin-binding growth-associated molecule (HB-GAM), and mice lacking N-syndecan (a receptor for HB-GAM). All mutant mice appeared to be fertile and healthy, without any apparent neurological or sensory defects. The lack of HB-GAM and N-syndecan, however, significantly reduced the learning capacity of the mice. On the other hand, overexpression of HB-GAM resulted in facilitated learning. Moreover, HB-GAM knockout mice displayed higher anxiety-like behaviour, whereas anxiety was reduced in HB-GAM overexpressing mice. Changes in hippocampal plasticity accompanied the behavioural phenotypes. We conclude that HB-GAM and N-syndecan are involved in the modulation of synaptic plasticity in hippocampus and play a role in regulation of anxiety- and learning-related behaviour.

Behavioural, population, and genetic processes affecting metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly

In my thesis I have been studying the effects of population fragmentation and extinction-recolonization dynamics on genetic and evolutionary processes in the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia). By conducting crosses within and among newly-colonized populations and using several fitness measures, I found a strong decrease in fitness following colonization by a few related individuals, and a strong negative relationship between parental relatedness and offspring fitness. Thereafter, I was interested in determining the number and relatedness of individuals colonizing new populations, which I did using a set of microsatellites I had previously developed for this species. Additionally, I am interested in the evolution of key life-history traits. By following the lifetime reproductive success of males emerging at different times in a semi-natural setup, I demonstrated that protandry is adaptive in males, and I was able to rule out, for M. cinxia, alternative incidental hypotheses evoked to explain the evolution of protandry in insects. Finally, in work I did together with Prof. Hanna Kokko, I am proposing bet-hedging as a new mechanism that could explain the evolution of polyandry in M. cinxia.