How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

The importance of ecological scale for wildlife conservation in naturally fragmented environments: A case study of the Brush-Tailed Rock-Wallaby (Petrogale Penicillata)

Determining the ecologically relevant spatial scales for predicting species occurrences is an important concept when determining species–environment relationships. Therefore species distribution modelling should consider all ecologically relevant spatial scales. While several recent studies have addressed this problem in artificially fragmented landscapes, few studies have researched relevant ecological scales for organisms that also live in naturally fragmented landscapes. This situation is exemplified by the Australian rock-wallabies’ preference for rugged terrain and we addressed the issue of scale using the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) in eastern Australia. We surveyed for brush-tailed rock-wallabies at 200 sites in southeast Queensland, collecting potentially influential site level and landscape level variables. We applied classification trees at either scale to capture a hierarchy of relationships between the explanatory variables and brush-tailed rock-wallaby presence/absence. Habitat complexity at the site level and geology at the landscape level were the best predictors of where we observed brush-tailed rock-wallabies. Our study showed that the distribution of the species is affected by both site scale and landscape scale factors, reinforcing the need for a multi-scale approach to understanding the relationship between a species and its environment. We demonstrate that careful design of data collection, using coarse scale spatial datasets and finer scale field data, can provide useful information for identifying the ecologically relevant scales for studying species–environment relationships. Our study highlights the need to determine patterns of environmental influence at multiple scales to conserve specialist species such as the brush-tailed rock-wallaby in naturally fragmented landscapes.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Conifer defence against insects: microarray gene expression profiling of Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) induced by mechanical wounding or feeding by spruce budworms (Choristoneura occidentalis) or white pine weevils (Pissodes strobi) reveals large

Conifers are resistant to attack from a large number of potential herbivores or pathogens. Previous molecular and biochemical characterization of selected conifer defence systems support a model of multigenic, constitutive and induced defences that act on invading insects via physical, chemical, biochemical or ecological (multitrophic) mechanisms. However, the genomic foundation of the complex defence and resistance mechanisms of conifers is largely unknown. As part of a genomics strategy to characterize inducible defences and possible resistance mechanisms of conifers against insect herbivory, we developed a cDNA microarray building upon a new spruce (Picea spp.) expressed sequence tag resource. This first-generation spruce cDNA microarray contains 9720 cDNA elements representing c. 5500 unique genes. We used this array to monitor gene expression in Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) bark in response to herbivory by white pine weevils (Pissodes strobi, Curculionidae) or wounding, and in young shoot tips in response to western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis, Lepidopterae) feeding. Weevils are stem-boring insects that feed on phloem, while budworms are foliage feeding larvae that consume needles and young shoot tips. Both insect species and wounding treatment caused substantial changes of the host plant transcriptome detected in each case by differential gene expression of several thousand array elements at 1 or 2 d after the onset of treatment. Overall, there was considerable overlap among differentially expressed gene sets from these three stress treatments. Functional classification of the induced transcripts revealed genes with roles in general plant defence, octadecanoid and ethylene signalling, transport, secondary metabolism, and transcriptional regulation. Several genes involved in primary metabolic processes such as photosynthesis were down-regulated upon insect feeding or wounding, fitting with the concept of dynamic resource allocation in plant defence. Refined expression analysis using gene-specific primers and real-time PCR for selected transcripts was in agreement with microarray results for most genes tested. This study provides the first large-scale survey of insect-induced defence transcripts in a gymnosperm and provides a platform for functional investigation of plant-insect interactions in spruce. Induction of spruce genes of octadecanoid and ethylene signalling, terpenoid biosynthesis, and phenolic secondary metabolism are discussed in more detail.

Left vs right in black and white : a review

LIKE much of the work that David Williamson is known for, Let the Sunshine concentrates on tensions between characters who operate mainly as mouthpieces for opposing ideologies. Left-wing documentary-maker Toby and his wife Ros have moved to Noosa to escape the rat race in Sydney and some bad press surrounding one of Toby's projects. Trying to make social connections in town, Ros has reconnected with high school classmate Natasha, now the cosmetically-enhanced wife of wealthy right-wing property developer Ron. The posturing and conflict between Toby and Ron come to a head when the women invite their grown children -- struggling songwriter Rick and stressed corporate lawyer Emma -- to dinner to celebrate Toby's birthday, and the results of this encounter drive the rest of the plot. The scenario of Let the Sunshine is contrived, the characters are stereotyped, and their conflicts are little more than an old clash of ideologies cast loosely across the mainstream news media's characterisation of the sides in debates about development, climate change and the economic crisis.

It really is black and white when you look at it like this : reporting on a study into Australian professors' research and teaching priorities

Despite optimistic claims about the research-teaching nexus, Australian academics still face tension between research and teaching. The teaching and research priorities, beliefs and behaviours of 70 Professorial and Associate Professorial academics in Science, Information Technology and Engineering were examined in this study. The academics from 4 faculties in 3 Australian universities, were asked to rank 16 research activities and 16 matched learning and teaching (L&T) activities from each of three perspectives: job satisfaction, leadership behaviour, and perceptions of professional importance. The findings, which were remarkably consistent across the three universities, were unequivocally in favour of Research. The only L&T activity that was ranked consistently well was “Improving student satisfaction ratings for Teaching”. The data demonstrates that Australian government and university initiatives to raise the status of L&T activity are not impacting significantly on Australia’s future leaders of university learning.

The health of women and girls determines the health and well-being of our modern world : a white paper from the International Council on Women's Health Issues

The International Council on Women's Health Issues (ICOWHI) is an international nonprofit association dedicated to the goal of promoting health, health care, and well-being of women and girls throughout the world through participation, empowerment, advocacy, education, and research. We are a multidisciplinary network of women's health providers, planners, and advocates from all over the globe. We constitute an international professional and lay network of those committed to improving women and girl's health and quality of life. This document provides a description of our organization mission, vision, and commitment to improving the health and well-being of women and girls globally.

The white man's burden : patriarchal white epistemic violence and Aboriginal women's knowledges within the academy

In this article I reveal how texts produced by Aboriginal women scholars signify a racialised and gendered body that functions discursively, as an immediacy of racism in the form of white patriarchal epistemic violence (Lloyd 1991, 74). I demonstrate how this dominant racialised and gendered form of violence is an assertion of power that involves or arises from racialised knowledge by examining Dirk Moses' analysis of ‘Indigeneity’ via the Northern Territory Intervention (Spivak 1988).