Planktonic and benthic foraminiferal stable isotopes, SSTs and thermocline temperature, coccoliths and benthic foraminiferal assemblages, and productivity reconstruction for sediment core MD06-3067

We present sea surface, upper thermocline, and benthic d18O data, as well as temperature and paleoproductivity proxy data, from the International Marine Global Change Study Program (IMAGES) Core MD06-3067 (6°31'N, 126°30'E, 1575 m water depth), located in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean within the flow path of the Mindanao Current. Our records reveal considerable glacial-interglacial and suborbital variability in the Mindanao Dome upwelling over the last 160 kyr. Dome activity generally intensified during glacial intervals resulting in cooler thermocline waters, whereas it substantially declined during interglacials, in particular in the early Holocene and early marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 5e, when upwelling waters did not reach the thermocline. During MIS 3 and MIS 2, enhanced surface productivity together with remarkably low SST and low upper ocean thermal contrast provide evidence for episodic glacial upwelling to the surface, whereas transient surface warming marks periodic collapses of the Mindanao Dome upwelling during Heinrich events. We attribute the high variability during MIS 3 and MIS 2 to changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation state that affected boreal winter monsoonal winds and upper ocean circulation. Glacial upwelling intensified when a strong cyclonic gyre became established, whereas El Niño-like conditions during Heinrich events tended to suppress the cyclonic circulation, reducing Ekman transport. Thus, our findings demonstrate that variations in the Mindanao Dome upwelling are closely linked to the position and intensity of the tropical convection and also reflect far-field influences from the high latitudes.

Analysis of Hail and Temperature Series for Peninsular Spain

Hail is a serious concern for agriculture on the Iberian Peninsula. Hailstorms affect crop yield and/or quality to a degree that depends on the crop species and the phenological time. In Europe, Spain is one of the countries that experience relatively high agricultural losses related to hailstorms. It is of high interest to study models that can support calculations of the probabilities of economic losses due to hail damage and of the tendency over time for such losses. Some studies developed in France and the Netherdlands show that the summer mean temperature was highly correlated with a yearly hail severity index developed from hailrelated parameters obtained for insurance purposes. Meanwhile, other studies in the USA point out that a highly significant correlation between both is not possible to find due to high climatic variability. The aim of this work is to test the correlation between average minimum temperatures and hail damage intensity over the Spanish Iberian Peninsula. With this purpose, correlation analyses on both variables were performed for the 47 Spanish provinces (as individuals and single set) and for all crops and four individual crops: grapes, wheat, barley and winter grains. Suitable crop insurance data are available from 1981 until 2007 and based on this period, temperature data were obtained. This study does not confirm the results previously obtained for France and the Netherlands that relate observed hail damage to the average minimum temperature. The reason for this difference and the nature of the cases observed are discussed.

Pollen abundances, and temperature and precipitation reconstruction for the Eocene to Oligocene transition in northern high latitudes

A profound global climate shift took place at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (~33.5 million years ago) when Cretaceous/early Palaeogene greenhouse conditions gave way to icehouse conditions (Zachos et al., 2001, doi:10.1126/science.1059412; Coxall et al., 2005, doi:10.1038/nature03135; Lear et al., 2008, doi:10.1130/G24584A.1). During this interval, changes in the Earth's orbit and a long-term drop in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (Pagani et al., 2005, doi:10.1126/science.1110063; Pearson and Palmer, 2000, doi:10.1038/35021000; DeConto and Pollard, 2003, doi:10.1038/nature01290) resulted in both the growth of Antarctic ice sheets to approximately their modern size (Coxall et al., 2005, doi:10.1038/nature03135; Lear et al., 2008, doi:10.1130/G24584A.1) and the appearance of Northern Hemisphere glacial ice (Eldrett et al., 2007, doi:10.1038/nature05591; Moran et al., 2006, doi:10.1038/nature04800). However, palaeoclimatic studies of this interval are contradictory: although some analyses indicate no major climatic changes (Kohn et al., 2004, doi:10.1130/G20442.1; Grimes et al., 2005, doi:10.1130/G21019.1), others imply cooler temperatures (Zanazzi et al., 2007, doi:10.1038/nature05551), increased seasonality (Ivany et al., 2000, doi:10.1038/35038044; Terry, 2001, doi:10.1016/S0031-0182(00)00248-0) and/or aridity (Ivany et al., 2000, doi:10.1038/35038044; Terry, 2001, doi:10.1016/S0031-0182(00)00248-0; Sheldon et al., 2002, doi:10.1086/342865; Dupont-Nivet et al., 2007, doi:10.1038/nature05516). Climatic conditions in high northern latitudes over this interval are particularly poorly known. Here we present northern high-latitude terrestrial climate estimates for the Eocene to Oligocene interval, based on bioclimatic analysis of terrestrially derived spore and pollen assemblages preserved in marine sediments from the Norwegian-Greenland Sea. Our data indicate a cooling of ~5 °C in cold-month (winter) mean temperatures to 0-2 °C, and a concomitant increased seasonality before the Oi-1 glaciation event. These data indicate that a cooling component is indeed incorporated in the d18O isotope shift across the Eocene-Oligocene transition. However, the relatively warm summer temperatures at that time mean that continental ice on East Greenland was probably restricted to alpine outlet glaciers.

Seasonal mean air temperatures and ice phenology characteristics of Great Bear Lake and Great Slave Lake (2002-2009)

Time series of brightness temperatures (T(B)) from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) are examined to determine ice phenology variables on the two largest lakes of northern Canada: Great Bear Lake (GBL) and Great Slave Lake (GSL). T(B) measurements from the 18.7, 23.8, 36.5, and 89.0 GHz channels (H- and V- polarization) are compared to assess their potential for detecting freeze-onset/melt-onset and ice-on/ice-off dates on both lakes. The 18.7 GHz (H-pol) channel is found to be the most suitable for estimating these ice dates as well as the duration of the ice cover and ice-free seasons. A new algorithm is proposed using this channel and applied to map all ice phenology variables on GBL and GSL over seven ice seasons (2002-2009). Analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of each variable at the pixel level reveals that: (1) both freeze-onset and ice-on dates occur on average about one week earlier on GBL than on GSL (Day of Year (DY) 318 and 333 for GBL; DY 328 and 343 for GSL); (2) the freeze-up process or freeze duration (freeze-onset to ice-on) takes a slightly longer amount of time on GBL than on GSL (about 1 week on average); (3) melt-onset and ice-off dates occur on average one week and approximately four weeks later, respectively, on GBL (DY 143 and 183 for GBL; DY 135 and 157 for GSL); (4) the break-up process or melt duration (melt-onset to ice-off) lasts on average about three weeks longer on GBL; and (5) ice cover duration estimated from each individual pixel is on average about three weeks longer on GBL compared to its more southern counterpart, GSL. A comparison of dates for several ice phenology variables derived from other satellite remote sensing products (e.g. NOAA Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS), QuikSCAT, and Canadian Ice Service Database) show that, despite its relatively coarse spatial resolution, AMSR-E 18.7 GHz provides a viable means for monitoring of ice phenology on large northern lakes.

Sea surface temperature (TEX86), marine GDGTs and BIT index from ODP Hole 161-977A

The TEX86H temperature proxy is a relatively new proxy based on crenarchaeotal lipids and has rarely been applied together with other temperature proxies. In this study, we applied the TEX86H on a sediment core from the Alboran Sea (western Mediterranean, core ODP-977A) covering the penultimate climate cycle, that is, from 244 to 130 ka, and compared this with previously published sea surface temperatures derived from the Uk'37 of alkenones of haptophyta and Mg/Ca records of planktonic foraminifera. The TEX86H temperature record shows remarkably similar stadial-interstadial patterns and abrupt temperature changes to those observed with the Uk'37 palaeothermometer. Absolute TEX86H temperature estimates are generally higher than those of Uk'37, though this difference (<3°C in 81% of the data points) is mainly within the temperature calibration error for both proxies, suggesting that crenarchaeota and haptophyta experienced similar temperature variations. During occasional events (<5% of the analyzed time span), however, the TEX86H exhibits considerably higher absolute temperature estimates than the Uk'37. Comparison with Mg/Ca records of planktonic foraminifera as well as other Mediterranean TEX86 and Uk'37 records suggests that part of this divergence may be attributed to seasonal differences, that is, with TEX86H reflecting mainly the warm summer season while Uk'37 would show annual mean. Biases in the global calibration of both proxies or specific biases in the Mediterranean are an alternative, though less likely, explanation. Despite differences between absolute TEX86H and Uk'37 temperatures, the correlation between the two proxies (r**2 = 0.59, 95% significance) provides support for the occurrence of abrupt temperature variations in the western Mediterranean during the penultimate interglacial-to-glacial cycle.

Modeling of Turbulent Natural Gas and Biogas Flames of the Delft Jet-in-Hot-Coflow Burner: Effects of Coflow Temperature, Fuel Temperature and Fuel Composition on the Flame Lift-Off Height

The structure of a turbulent non-premixed flame of a biogas fuel in a hot and diluted coflow mimicking moderate and intense low dilution (MILD) combustion is studied numerically. Biogas fuel is obtained by dilution of Dutch natural gas (DNG) with CO2. The results of biogas combustion are compared with those of DNG combustion in the Delft Jet-in-Hot-Coflow (DJHC) burner. New experimental measurements of lift-off height and of velocity and temperature statistics have been made to provide a database for evaluating the capability of numerical methods in predicting the flame structure. Compared to the lift-off height of the DNG flame, addition of 30 % carbon dioxide to the fuel increases the lift-off height by less than 15 %. Numerical simulations are conducted by solving the RANS equations using Reynolds stress model (RSM) as turbulence model in combination with EDC (Eddy Dissipation Concept) and transported probability density function (PDF) as turbulence-chemistry interaction models. The DRM19 reduced mechanism is used as chemical kinetics with the EDC model. A tabulated chemistry model based on the Flamelet Generated Manifold (FGM) is adopted in the PDF method. The table describes a non-adiabatic three stream mixing problem between fuel, coflow and ambient air based on igniting counterflow diffusion flamelets. The results show that the EDC/DRM19 and PDF/FGM models predict the experimentally observed decreasing trend of lift-off height with increase of the coflow temperature. Although more detailed chemistry is used with EDC, the temperature fluctuations at the coflow inlet (approximately 100K) cannot be included resulting in a significant overprediction of the flame temperature. Only the PDF modeling results with temperature fluctuations predict the correct mean temperature profiles of the biogas case and compare well with the experimental temperature distributions.

Renal hypothermia: Experience in pigs and clinical trial

Purpose: This study was designed to compare the effectiveness of two methods of inducing renal hypothermia through laparoscopy in pigs and humans. Materials and Methods: Twelve pigs were divided into four groups of three animals each. Both kidneys of the animals in Groups A, B, and C were submitted to pelvic irrigation with cold saline (4 degrees C) for 20 minutes, with flow rates of 5 mL/min, 10 mL/min, and 15 mL/min, respectively. In Group D renal hypothermia was induced by intracorporeal ice slush applied to the surface for 20 minutes. All maneuvers were performed laparoscopically and renal cortex temperature was measured by a thermocouple needle. Five human patients also underwent laparoscopic partial nephrectomy due to renal cell carcinoma. In one case renoprotection was induced by retrograde endoscopic cold saline perfusion at a flow rate of 10 mL/min. In the remaining four patients we induced renal hypothermia via laparoscopic application of ice slush. The renal temperature of the human patients was also monitored using a thermocouple needle. Results: In the pigs, at 20 minutes of renal pelvis perfusion the mean renal temperature, the temperature drop, and saline flow per gram of kidney were: Group A, -29.5 degrees C +/- 1.1 (-6.3 degrees C; 0.10 mL); Group B, -22.8 degrees C +/- 1.1 (-13.1 degrees C; 0.22 mL); and Group C, -21.1 degrees C +/- 0.9 (-14.9 degrees C; 0.31 mL). In Group D the mean renal cortex temperature at 20 minutes was 13.6 degrees C +/- 1.2, a drop of -22.5 degrees C. There were striking differences among the groups (P < 0.0001). The laparoscopic partial nephrectomy was uneventful in all five human patients. The lowest renal cortex temperature was 32.5 degrees C, seen in the patient who submitted to pelvic irrigation with cold saline, and the mean temperature drop was 19.1 degrees C +/- 2.5 degrees C in the patients who submitted to ice slush-induced renal hypothermia. Conclusions: Induction of renal hypothermia using intracorporeal ice slush confers lower kidney temperatures than endoscopically-induced cold saline perfusion.

Cenários de mudanças climáticas para a América do Sul : impacto no zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar

O Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) através do seu Quarto Relatório de Avaliação das Mudanças Climáticas Globais (IPCC-AR4), publicado em 2007, atribui as emissões de gases de efeito estufa como a principal causa do aumento médio das temperaturas e alerta para uma elevação entre 1,8 ºC e 6,4 ºC até 2100, podendo modificar assim a aptidão climática para as culturas agrícolas em diversas regiões do planeta. Diante disso, existe a necessidade de substituição dos combustíveis fósseis por fontes renováveis e limpas de energia, como o etanol. A cana-de-açúcar apresenta-se, portanto, como uma cultura estratégica na produção do etanol. O presente trabalho teve como objetivos: 1) avaliar o desempenho dos Modelos Climáticos Globais (MCGs) do IPCC-AR4 na simulação de dados climáticos de temperatura do ar e precipitação pluviométrica para o período anual e mensal; 2) elaborar o zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar para a América do Sul considerando o clima referência e o futuro para as décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080 em função do cenário de emissão A1B considerado pessimista e que usa um equilíbrio entre todas as fontes de energia. Para a avaliação do desempenho dos MCGs, foram utilizados dados climáticos médios mensais observados de precipitação e temperatura do ar provenientes do Climatic Research Unit (CRU) e dados simulados oriundos dos 22 MCGs do IPCC (cenário 20c3m) compreendidos entre o período de 1961-1990, além do Multimodel (ensemble) – MM que é a média da combinação dos dados de todos os modelos. O desempenho dos MCGs foi avaliado pelos índices estatísticos: desvio padrão, correlação, raiz quadrada da média do quadrado das diferenças centralizadas e o “bias” dos dados simulados com os observados, que foram representados no diagrama de Taylor. Para a etapa da elaboração do zoneamento agroclimático procedeu-se o cálculo dos balanços hídricos (referência e futuros) da cultura, pelo método de Thornthwaite & Mather (1955). Para o cenário referência, utilizaram-se dados das médias mensais da precipitação e temperatura provenientes do CRU, enquanto que para as projeções futuras, dados provenientes das anomalias do Multimodel (ensemble) – MM para as décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080, que foram ajustados, obtendo-se assim as projeções futuras para cada período analisado. Baseado nos mapas temáticos reclassificados de deficiência hídrica anual, temperatura média anual, excedente hídrico anual e no índice de satisfação das necessidades de água (ISNA), realizou-se uma sobreposição dessas informações obtendo assim, os mapas finais do zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar. Posteriormente ao zoneamento, realizou-se a análise das transições (ganhos, perdas e persistências) entre as classes de aptidão climática da cultura. Os resultados mostram que o Multimodel (ensemble) – MM para o período mensal apresenta o melhor desempenho entre os modelos analisados. As áreas inaptas correspondem a maior parte da América do Sul e uma expressiva transição entre as classes de aptidão climática da cultura.

HFCs e soluções alternativas viáveis

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Self-similarity principle: the reduced description of randomness

A new general fitting method based on the Self-Similar (SS) organization of random sequences is presented. The proposed analytical function helps to fit the response of many complex systems when their recorded data form a self-similar curve. The verified SS principle opens new possibilities for the fitting of economical, meteorological and other complex data when the mathematical model is absent but the reduced description in terms of some universal set of the fitting parameters is necessary. This fitting function is verified on economical (price of a commodity versus time) and weather (the Earth’s mean temperature surface data versus time) and for these nontrivial cases it becomes possible to receive a very good fit of initial data set. The general conditions of application of this fitting method describing the response of many complex systems and the forecast possibilities are discussed.