Evaluating Dynamic Signage for Emergency Evacuation using an Immersive Video Environment

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Making sense of the experimental evidence on endogenous timing in duopoly markets

The prediction of asymmetric equilibria with Stackelberg outcomes is clearly the most frequent result in the endogenous timing literature. Several experiments have tried to validate this prediction empirically, but failed to find support for it. By contrast, the experiments find that simultaneous-move outcomes are modal and that behavior in endogenous timing games is quite heterogeneous. This paper generalizes Saloner’s (1987) and Hamilton and Slutsky’s (1990) endogenous timing games by assuming that players are averse to inequality in payoffs. We explore the theoretical implications of inequity aversion and compare them to the empirical evidence. We find that this explanation is able to organize most of the experimental evidence on endogenous timing games. However, inequity aversion is not able to explain delay in Hamilton and Slutsky’s endogenous timing games.

Exploiting the cointrgration between vix and CDS in a credit market timing model

We investigate the cointegration between VIX and CDS indices, and the possibility of exploiting it in an existing credit market timing investment model. We find cointegration over most of the sample period and the leadership of VIX over the CDS in the price discovery process. We present two methods for including cointegration into the model. Both strategies improve the in-sample and out-of-sample model performances, even though out-of-sample results are weaker. We find that in-sample better performances are explained by a stronger cointegration, concluding that in the presence of cointegration our strategies can be profitable in an investment model that considers transaction costs.

Avaliação do desempenho de fundos de investimento de ouro nos EUA: influência dos diferentes regimes de mercado na seletividade e market-timing

Dissertação de mestrado em Finanças

Learning joint representations for order and timing of perceptual-motor sequences: a dynamic neural field approach

Many of our everyday tasks require the control of the serial order and the timing of component actions. Using the dynamic neural field (DNF) framework, we address the learning of representations that support the performance of precisely time action sequences. In continuation of previous modeling work and robotics implementations, we ask specifically the question how feedback about executed actions might be used by the learning system to fine tune a joint memory representation of the ordinal and the temporal structure which has been initially acquired by observation. The perceptual memory is represented by a self-stabilized, multi-bump activity pattern of neurons encoding instances of a sensory event (e.g., color, position or pitch) which guides sequence learning. The strength of the population representation of each event is a function of elapsed time since sequence onset. We propose and test in simulations a simple learning rule that detects a mismatch between the expected and realized timing of events and adapts the activation strengths in order to compensate for the movement time needed to achieve the desired effect. The simulation results show that the effector-specific memory representation can be robustly recalled. We discuss the impact of the fast, activation-based learning that the DNF framework provides for robotics applications.

Childhood history of abuse and child abuse potential: the role of parent’s gender and timing of childhood abuse

It has been suggested that being physically abused leads to someone becoming a perpetrator of abuse which could be associated to parents' gender, timing of the physical abuse and specific socio-demographic variables. This study aims to investigate the role the parents' gender, timing of childhood abuse and socio-demographic variables on the relationship between parents' history of childhood physical abuse and current risk for children. The sample consisted of 920 parents (414 fathers, 506 mothers) from the Portuguese National Representative Study of Psychosocial Context of Child Abuse and Neglect who completed the Childhood History Questionnaire and the Child Abuse Potential Inventory. The results showed that fathers had lower current potential risk of becoming physical abuse perpetrators with their children than mothers although they did not differed in their physical victimization history. Moreover, the risk was higher in parents (both genders) with continuous history of victimization than in parents without victimization. Prediction models showed that for fathers and mothers separately similar socio-demographic variables (family income, number of children at home, employment status and marital status) predicted the potential risk of becoming physical abuses perpetrators. Nevertheless, the timing of victimization was different for fathers (before 13 years old) and mothers (after 13 years old). Then our study targets specific variables (timing of physical abuse, parents' gender and specific socio-demographic variables), which may enable professionals to select groups of parents at greater need of participating in abuse prevention programs.

Initial diagnostic errors in children suspected of having heart disease: prevalence and long-term consequences

OBJECTIVE: To access the incidence of diagnostic errors in the initial evaluation of children with cardiac murmurs. METHODS: We evaluated our 7-years of experience in a public pediatric cardiology outpatient clinic. Of 3692 patients who were sent to the hospital, 2603 presented with a heart murmur and were investigated. Patients for whom a disagreement existed between the initial and final diagnoses were divided into the following 2 groups: G1 (n=17) with an initial diagnosis of an innocent murmur and a final diagnosis of cardiopathy, and G2 (n=161) with an initial diagnosis of cardiopathy and a final diagnosis of a normal heart. RESULTS: In G1, the great majority of patients had cardiac defects with mild hemodynamic repercussions, such as small ventricular septal defect and mild pulmonary stenosis. In G2, the great majority of structural defects were interventricular communication, atrial septal defect and pulmonary valve stenosis. CONCLUSION: A global analysis demonstrated that diagnostic error in the initial evaluation of children with cardiac murmurs is real, reaching approximately 6% of cases. The majority of these misdiagnoses were in patients with an initial diagnosis of cardiopathy, which was not confirmed through later complementary examinations. Clinical cardiovascular examination is an excellent resource in the evaluation of children suspected of having cardiopathy. Immediate outpatient discharge of children with an initial diagnosis of an innocent heart murmur seems to be a suitable approach.

Errores en sistemas de procesamiento de datos debido a eventos transitorios en interfaces analógicas: aportes a la mitigación de los mismos. Errors in data processing systems due to single transient events affecting analog interfaces: contributions to their mitigation.

Los eventos transitorios únicos analógicos (ASET, Analog Single Event Transient) se producen debido a la interacción de un ión pesado o un protón de alta energía con un dispositivo sensible de un circuito analógico. La interacción del ión con un transistor bipolar o de efecto de campo MOS induce pares electrón-hueco que provocan picos que pueden propagarse a la salida del componente analógico provocando transitorios que pueden inducir fallas en el nivel sistema. Los problemas más graves debido a este tipo de fenómeno se dan en el medioambiente espacial, muy rico en iones pesados. Casos típicos los constituyen las computadoras de a bordo de satélites y otros artefactos espaciales. Sin embargo, y debido a la continua contracción de dimensiones de los transistores (que trae aparejado un aumento de sensibilidad), este fenómeno ha comenzado a observarse a nivel del mar, provocado fundamentalmente por el impacto de neutrones atmosféricos. Estos efectos pueden provocar severos problemas a los sistemas informáticos con interfaces analógicas desde las que obtienen datos para el procesamiento y se han convertido en uno de los problemas más graves a los que tienen que hacer frente los diseñadores de sistemas de alta escala de integración. Casos típicos son los Sistemas en Chip que incluyen módulos de procesamiento de altas prestaciones como las interfaces analógicas.El proyecto persigue como objetivo general estudiar la susceptibilidad de sistemas informáticos a ASETs en sus secciones analógicas, proponiendo estrategias para la mitigación de los errores.Como objetivos específicos se pretende: -Proponer nuevos modelos de ASETs basados en simulaciones en el nivel dispositivo y resueltas por el método de elementos finitos.-Utilizar los modelos para identificar las secciones más propensas a producir errores y consecuentemente para ser candidatos a la aplicación de técnicas de endurecimiento a radiaciones.-Utilizar estos modelos para estudiar la naturaleza de los errores producidos en sistemas de procesamiento de datos.-Proponer soluciones novedosas para la mitigación de estos efectos en los mismos circuitos analógicos evitando su propagación a las secciones digitales.-Proponer soluciones para la mitigación de los efectos en el nivel sistema.Para llevar a cabo el proyecto se plantea un procedimiento ascendente para las investigaciones a realizar, comenzando por descripciones en el nivel físico para posteriormente aumentar el nivel de abstracción en el que se encuentra modelado el circuito. Se propone el modelado físico de los dispositivos MOS y su resolución mediante el Método de Elementos Finitos. La inyección de cargas en las zonas sensibles de los modelos permitirá determinar los perfiles de los pulsos de corriente que deben inyectarse en el nivel circuito para emular estos efectos. Estos procedimientos se realizarán para los distintos bloques constructivos de las interfaces analógicas, proponiendo estrategias de mitigación de errores en diferentes niveles.Los resultados esperados del presente proyecto incluyen hardware para detección de errores y tolerancia a este tipo de eventos que permitan aumentar la confiabilidad de sistemas de tratamiento de la información, así como también nuevos datos referentes a efectos de la radiación en semiconductores, nuevos modelos de fallas transitorias que permitan una simulación de estos eventos en el nivel circuito y la determinación de zonas sensibles de interfaces analógicas típicas que deben ser endurecidas para radiación.

Learning from errors

We present a model of learning in which agents learn from errors. If an action turns out to be an error, the agent rejects not only that action but also neighboring actions. We find that, keepng memory of his errors, under mild assumptions an acceptable solution is asymptotically reached. Moreover, one can take advantage of big errors for a faster learning.

How universal is behavior? A four country comparison of spite, cooperation and errors in voluntary contribution mechanisms

This paper studies behavior in experiments with a linear voluntary contributions mechanism for public goods conducted in Japan, the Netherlands, Spain and the USA. The same experimental design was used in the four countries. Our 'contribution function' design allows us to obtain a view of subjects' behavior from two complementary points of view. If yields information about situations where, in purely pecuniary terms, it is a dominant strategy to contribute all the endowment and about situations where it is a dominant strategy to contribute nothing. Our results show, first, that differences in behavior across countries are minor. We find that when people play "the same game" they behave similarly. Second, for all four countries our data are inconsistent with the explanation that subjects contribute only out of confusion. A common cooperative motivation is needed to explain the date.

Sexual dimorphism in resource acquisition and deployment: both size and timing matter.

Background and Aims The males and females of many dioecious plant species differ from one another in important life-history traits, such as their size. If male and female reproductive functions draw on different resources, for example, one should expect males and females to display different allocation strategies as they grow. Importantly, these strategies may differ not only between the two sexes, but also between plants of different age and therefore size. Results are presented from an experiment that asks whether males and females of Mercurialis annua, an annual plant with indeterminate growth, differ over time in their allocation of two potentially limiting resources (carbon and nitrogen) to vegetative (below-and above-ground) and reproductive tissues.Methods Comparisons were made of the temporal patterns of biomass allocation to shoots, roots and reproduction and the nitrogen content in the leaves between the sexes of M. annua by harvesting plants of each sex after growth over different periods of time.Key Results and Conclusions Males and females differed in their temporal patterns of allocation. Males allocated more to reproduction than females at early stages, but this trend was reversed at later stages. Importantly, males allocated proportionally more of their biomass towards roots at later stages, but the roots of females were larger in absolute terms. The study points to the important role played by both the timing of resource deployment and the relative versus absolute sizes of the sinks and sources in sexual dimorphism of an annual plant.

Modeling sequencing errors by combining Hidden Markov models.

Among the largest resources for biological sequence data is the large amount of expressed sequence tags (ESTs) available in public and proprietary databases. ESTs provide information on transcripts but for technical reasons they often contain sequencing errors. Therefore, when analyzing EST sequences computationally, such errors must be taken into account. Earlier attempts to model error prone coding regions have shown good performance in detecting and predicting these while correcting sequencing errors using codon usage frequencies. In the research presented here, we improve the detection of translation start and stop sites by integrating a more complex mRNA model with codon usage bias based error correction into one hidden Markov model (HMM), thus generalizing this error correction approach to more complex HMMs. We show that our method maintains the performance in detecting coding sequences.

The Timing of labor demand

We examine the timing of firms' operations in a formal model of labor demand. Merging a variety of data sets from Portugal from 1995-2004, we describe temporal patterns of firms' demand for labor and estimate production-functions and relative labor-demand equations. The results demonstrate the existence of substitution of employment across times of the day/week and show that legislated penalties for work at irregular hours induce firms to alter their operating schedules. The results suggest a role for such penalties in an unregulated labor market, such as the United States, in which unusually large fractions of work are performed at night and on weekends.