Conducting statistical tests of hypotheses : five common misconceptions found in transportation research

Most statistical methods use hypothesis testing. Analysis of variance, regression, discrete choice models, contingency tables, and other analysis methods commonly used in transportation research share hypothesis testing as the means of making inferences about the population of interest. Despite the fact that hypothesis testing has been a cornerstone of empirical research for many years, various aspects of hypothesis tests commonly are incorrectly applied, misinterpreted, and ignored—by novices and expert researchers alike. On initial glance, hypothesis testing appears straightforward: develop the null and alternative hypotheses, compute the test statistic to compare to a standard distribution, estimate the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis, and then make claims about the importance of the finding. This is an oversimplification of the process of hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing as applied in empirical research is examined here. The reader is assumed to have a basic knowledge of the role of hypothesis testing in various statistical methods. Through the use of an example, the mechanics of hypothesis testing is first reviewed. Then, five precautions surrounding the use and interpretation of hypothesis tests are developed; examples of each are provided to demonstrate how errors are made, and solutions are identified so similar errors can be avoided. Remedies are provided for common errors, and conclusions are drawn on how to use the results of this paper to improve the conduct of empirical research in transportation.

Power network in loop : a paradigm for real-time simulation and hardware testing

This paper discusses a new paradigm of real-time simulation of power systems in which equipment can be interfaced with a real-time digital simulator. In this scheme, one part of a power system can be simulated by using a real-time simulator; while the other part is implemeneted as a physical system. The only interface of the physical system with the computer-based simulator is through data-acquisition system. The physical system is driven by a voltage-source converter (VSC)that mimics the power system simulated in the real-time simulator. In this papar, the VSC operates in a voltage-control mode to track the point of common coupling voltage signal supplied by the digital simulator. This type of splitting a network in two parts and running a real-time simulation with a physical system in parallel is called a power network in loop here. this opens up the possibility of study of interconnection o f one or several distributed generators to a complex power network. The proposed implementation is verified through simulation studies using PSCAD/EMTDC and through hardware implementation on a TMS320G2812 DSP.

On-board mass monitoring of heavy vehicles : results of testing program

The Transport Certification Australia on-board mass feasibility project is testing various on-board mass devices in a range of heavy vehicles (HVs). Extensive field tests of on-board mass measurement systems for HVs have been conducted during 2008. These tests were of accuracy, robustness and tamper-evidence of heavy vehicle on-board mass telematics. All the systems tested showed accuracies within approximately +/- 500 kg of gross combination mass or approximately +/- 2% of the attendant weighbridge reading. Analysis of the dynamic data also showed encouraging results and has raised the possibility of use of such dynamic information in tamper evidence in two areas. This analysis was to determine if the use of averaged dynamic data could identify potential tampering or incorrect operating procedures as well as the possibility of dynamic measurements flagging a tamper event by the use of metrics including a tampering index (TIX). Technical and business options to detect tamper events will now be developed during implementation of regulatory OBM system application to Australian heavy vehicles (HVs).

Testing for accountability

Current graduates in education are entering a very different profession to the one in which most of their “baby-boomer” colleagues started. It is a profession in which accountability and national high-stakes testing (e.g. NAPLAN) have become catch-cries, and where the interpretation and use of educational data is an additional challenge. This has led to schools focusing on performance, and teachers now have to analyse test data and apply the findings to their teaching.

High-stakes national testing: it's global, it's here to stay, and graduating teachers need to know about it

My oldest daughter recently secured a position as a Science/Geography teacher in a P-12 Catholic College in regional Queensland. This paper looks at the teaching world into which she has graduated. Specifically, the paper will outline and discuss findings from a survey of graduating early childhood student teachers in relation to their knowledge and skills of the current regime of high-stakes testing in Australia. The paper argues that understanding accountability and possessing skills to scrutinise test data are essential for the new teacher as s/he enters a profession in which governments world-wide are demanding a return for their investment in education. The paper will examine literature on accountability and surveillance in the form of high-stakes testing from global, school and classroom perspectives. It makes the claim that it is imperative for beginning teachers to be able to interpret high-stakes test data and considers the skills required to do this. The paper also draws on local research to comment on the readiness of graduates to meet this comparatively new professional demand.

Flight testing of an augmented separation management system providing separation protection during failure of the central communication network

Future air traffic management concepts often involve the proposal of automated separation management algorithms that replaces human air traffic controllers. This paper proposes a new type of automated separation management algorithm (based on the satisficing approach) that utilizes inter-aircraft communication and a track file manager (or bank of Kalman filters) that is capable of resolving conflicts during periods of communication failure. The proposed separation management algorithm is tested in a range of flight scenarios involving during periods of communication failure, in both simulation and flight test (flight tests were conducted as part of the Smart Skies project). The intention of the conducted flight tests was to investigate the benefits of using inter-aircraft communication to provide an extra layer of safety protection in support air traffic management during periods of failure of the communication network. These benefits were confirmed.

Cultivar-specific effects of pathogen testing on storage root yield of sweet potato, Ipomoea batatas (L.) Lam.

The accumulation and perpetuation of viral pathogens over generations of clonal propagation in crop species such as sweet potato, Ipomoea batatas,inevitably result in a reduction in crop yield and quality. This study was conducted at Bundaberg, Australia to compare the productivity of field-derived and pathogen-tested (PT)clones of 14 sweet potato cultivars and the yield benefits of using healthy planting materials. The field-derived clonal materials were exposed to the endemic viruses, while the PT clones were subjected to thermotherapy and meristem-tip culture to eliminate viral pathogens. The plants were indexed for viruses using nitrocellulose membrane-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and graft-inoculations onto Ipomoea setosa. A net benefit of 38% in storage root yield was realised from using PT materials in this study.Conversely, in a similar study previously conducted at Kerevat, Papua New Guinea (PNG), a net deficit of 36% was realised. This reinforced our finding that the response to pathogen testing was cultivar dependent and that the PNG cultivars in these studies generally exhibited increased tolerance to the endemic viruses present at the respective trial sites as manifested in their lack of response from the use of PT clones. They may be useful sources for future resistance breeding efforts. Nonetheless, the potential economic gain from using PT stocks necessitates the use of pathogen testing on virus-susceptible commercial cultivars.

The impact of high stakes testing: the Australian story

High stakes testing in Australia was introduced in 2008 by way of the National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN). Currently, every year all students in Years 3, 5, 7 and 9 are assessed on the same days using national tests in Reading, Writing, Language Conventions (Spelling, Grammar and Punctuation) and Numeracy. In 2010 the NAPLAN results were published on the Federal Government MySchool website. The impact of these high stakes tests on jurisdictions, school principals, parents and students is considered in this article. We draw on reported observations from the Australian Primary Principals Association during 2009–10 testing periods across the country and published Australian research on the impact of high stakes literacy and numeracy testing. We also examine alternative approaches that include the use of assessment evidence for learning improvement purposes and for accountability purposes. In considering alternatives to the current large-scale testing approach we draw on key insights from research on teacher judgement, achievement standards and social moderation in the context of national curriculum and assessment reform in support of the suggested directions forward.

Statistical phylogeographic tests of competing 'Lake Carpentaria hypotheses' in the mouth-brooding freshwater fish, Glossamia aprion (Apogonidae)

Glacial cycles during the Pleistocene reduced sea levels and created new land connections in northern Australia, where many currently isolated rivers also became connected via an extensive paleo-lake system, 'Lake Carpentaria'. However, the most recent period during which populations of freshwater species were connected by gene flow across Lake Carpentaria is debated: various 'Lake Carpentaria hypotheses' have been proposed. Here, we used a statistical phylogeographic approach to assess the timing of past population connectivity across the Carpentaria region in the obligate freshwater fish, Glossamia aprion. Results for this species indicate that the most recent period of genetic exchange across the Carpentaria region coincided with the mid- to late Pleistocene, a result shown previously for other freshwater and diadromous species. Based on these findings and published studies for various freshwater, diadromous and marine species, we propose a set of 'Lake Carpentaria' hypotheses to explain past population connectivity in aquatic species: (1) strictly freshwater species had widespread gene flow in the mid- to late Pleistocene before the last glacial maximum; (2) marine species were subdivided into eastern and western populations by land during Pleistocene glacial phases; and (3) past connectivity in diadromous species reflects the relative strength of their marine affinity.

Development and testing of an iPad application for teaching self-management to heart failure patients. (Nursing/Allied Health Professional Investigator Award)- Abstract

Purpose: Heart failure (HF) is the leading cause of hospitalization and significant burden to the health care system in Australia. To reduce hospitalizations, multidisciplinary approaches and enhance self-management programs have been strongly advocated for HF patients globally. HF patients who can effectively manage their symptoms and adhere to complex medicine regimes will experience fewer hospitalizations. Research indicates that information technologies (IT) have a significant role in providing support to promote patients' self-management skills. The iPad utilizes user-friendly interfaces and to date an application for HF patient education has not been developed. This project aimed to develop the HF iPad teaching application in the way that would be engaging, interactive and simple to follow and usable for patients' carers and health care workers within both the hospital and community setting. Methods: The design for the development and evaluation of the application consisted of two action research cycles. Each cycle included 3 phases of testing and feedback from three groups comprising IT team, HF experts and patients. All patient education materials of the application were derived from national and international evidence based practice guidelines and patient self-care recommendations. Results: The iPad application has animated anatomy and physiology that simply and clearly teaches the concepts of the normal heart and the heart in failure. Patient Avatars throughout the application can be changed to reflect the sex and culture of the patient. There is voice-over presenting a script developed by the heart failure expert panel. Additional engagement processes included points of interaction throughout the application with touch screen responses and the ability of the patient to enter their weight and this data is secured and transferred to the clinic nurse and/or research data set. The application has been used independently, for instance, at home or using headphones in a clinic waiting room or most commonly to aid a nurse-led HF consultation. Conclusion: This project utilized iPad as an educational tool to standardize HF education from nurses who are not always heart failure specialists. Furthermore, study is currently ongoing to evaluate of the effectiveness of this tool on patient outcomes and to develop several specifically designed cultural adaptations [Hispanic (USA), Aboriginal (Australia), and Maori (New Zealand)].

Gene transfer vectors targeted to human prostate cancer : do we need better preclinical testing systems?

Destruction of cancer cells by genetically modified viral and nonviral vectors has been the aim of many research programs. The ability to target cytotoxic gene therapies to the cells of interest is an essential prerequisite, and the treatment has always had the potential to provide better and more long-lasting therapy than existing chemotherapies. However, the potency of these infectious agents requires effective testing systems, in which hypotheses can be explored both in vitro and in vivo before the establishment of clinical trials in humans. The real prospect of off-target effects should be eliminated in the preclinical stage, if current prejudices against such therapies are to be overcome. In this review we have set out, using adenoviral vectors as a commonly used example, to discuss some of the key parameters required to develop more effective testing, and to critically assess the current cellular models for the development and testing of prostate cancer biotherapy. Only by developing models that more closely mirror human tissues will we be able to translate literature publications into clinical trials and hence into acceptable alternative treatments for the most commonly diagnosed cancer in humans.

Are academics messy? Testing the broken windows theory with a field experiment in the work environment

We test the broken windows theory using a field experiment in a shared area of an academic workplace(the department common room). More specifically, we explore academics’ and postgraduate students’ behavior under an order condition (a clean environment) and a disorder condition (a messy environment). We find strong evidence that signs of disorderly behavior trigger littering: In 59% of the cases, subjects litter in the disorder treatment as compared to 18% in the order condition. These results remain robust in a multivariate analysis even when controlling for a large set of factors not directly examined by previous studies. Overall, when academic staff and postgraduate students observe that others have violated the social norm of keeping the common room clean, all else being equal, the probability of littering increases by around 40%.