Predicting hurricane evacuation decisions: When, how many, and how far

Traffic from major hurricane evacuations is known to cause severe gridlocks on evacuation routes. Better prediction of the expected amount of evacuation traffic is needed to improve the decision-making process for the required evacuation routes and possible deployment of special traffic operations, such as contraflow. The objective of this dissertation is to develop prediction models to predict the number of daily trips and the evacuation distance during a hurricane evacuation. ^ Two data sets from the surveys of the evacuees from Hurricanes Katrina and Ivan were used in the models' development. The data sets included detailed information on the evacuees, including their evacuation days, evacuation distance, distance to the hurricane location, and their associated socioeconomic characteristics, including gender, age, race, household size, rental status, income, and education level. ^ Three prediction models were developed. The evacuation trip and rate models were developed using logistic regression. Together, they were used to predict the number of daily trips generated before hurricane landfall. These daily predictions allowed for more detailed planning over the traditional models, which predicted the total number of trips generated from an entire evacuation. A third model developed attempted to predict the evacuation distance using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), which was able to account for the spatial variations found among the different evacuation areas, in terms of impacts from the model predictors. All three models were developed using the survey data set from Hurricane Katrina and then evaluated using the survey data set from Hurricane Ivan. ^ All of the models developed provided logical results. The logistic models showed that larger households with people under age six were more likely to evacuate than smaller households. The GWR-based evacuation distance model showed that the household with children under age six, income, and proximity of household to hurricane path, all had an impact on the evacuation distances. While the models were found to provide logical results, it was recognized that they were calibrated and evaluated with relatively limited survey data. The models can be refined with additional data from future hurricane surveys, including additional variables, such as the time of day of the evacuation. ^

Implications of FIN 46 for Accruals Quality and Investment Efficiency

The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued Interpretation No. 46 (FIN 46), Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities – An Interpretation of ARB No. 51, in January 2003 and revised it in December 2003, with the objective to improve the transparency of financial information. Under FIN 46, companies are required to consolidate variable interest entities (VIEs) on financial statements if they are the primary beneficiaries of the VIEs. This dissertation empirically examines whether the implementation of this new financial reporting guidance affects firms’ accruals quality and investment efficiency. A manually collected sample comprised of firms affected by FIN 46 and firms disclosing no material impact from FIN 46 is used in the empirical analyses.The first part of the dissertation investigates the effects of FIN 46 on accruals quality. By using different accrual quality measures in prior studies, this study found that firms affected by FIN 46 experienced a decrease in accrual quality compared to firms reporting no material impact from FIN 46. Among the firms affected by FIN 46, firms consolidating VIEs were compared with firms terminating or restructuring VIEs. The accruals quality of firms consolidating VIEs was found to be lower than that of firms terminating or restructuring VIEs. These results are consistent in tests using alternative control samples.The second part of this dissertation examines the effects of FIN 46 on investment efficiency. Mixed results were found from using two different proxies used in prior literature. Using the investment-cash flow sensitivity to proxy for investment efficiency, firms affected by FIN 46 experienced a decrease in investment efficiency compared to firms reporting no material impact. It was also found that higher investment-cash flow sensitivity for firms consolidating VIEs during post-FIN 46 periods compared to both the no-impact firms and the matched pair control sample. Contrasting results were found when the deviation from expected investment is used as another proxy for investment efficiency. Empirical analyses show that FIN 46 firms experienced improved investment efficiency measured by the deviation from expected investment after their adoption of FIN 46. This study also provides explanations for the opposite results from the two different proxies.

A low overhead error confinement method based on application statistical characteristics

Reliability has emerged as a critical design constraint especially in memories. Designers are going to great lengths to guarantee fault free operation of the underlying silicon by adopting redundancy-based techniques, which essentially try to detect and correct every single error. However, such techniques come at a cost of large area, power and performance overheads which making many researchers to doubt their efficiency especially for error resilient systems where 100% accuracy is not always required. In this paper, we present an alternative method focusing on the confinement of the resulting output error induced by any reliability issues. By focusing on memory faults, rather than correcting every single error the proposed method exploits the statistical characteristics of any target application and replaces any erroneous data with the best available estimate of that data. To realize the proposed method a RISC processor is augmented with custom instructions and special-purpose functional units. We apply the method on the proposed enhanced processor by studying the statistical characteristics of the various algorithms involved in a popular multimedia application. Our experimental results show that in contrast to state-of-the-art fault tolerance approaches, we are able to reduce runtime and area overhead by 71.3% and 83.3% respectively.

The performative politics of NAPLAN and Myschool

From the moment Australia’s newly elected Labor government announced in 2008 its intention to introduce a national assessment scheme for Australian schools, and to publish the results of these assessments on a public website, it courted controversy. The National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) and the MySchool website were introduced as part of the new government’s ‘transparency agenda’ and have been widely discussed and debated. NAPLAN is seen not only as an assessment of students, but also of the schools they attend. On the MySchool website, all of Australia’s nearly 10,000 government and non-government schools that receive government funding are required to present a range of information, including their NAPLAN results. The results are displayed in a comparative format, against the results of 59 other similar schools, as well as against its own past performance. Only selective special purpose schools are exempt from reporting their NAPLAN results.

A general-purpose simulator for train operations

Computer simulation has been widely accepted as an essential tool for the analysis of many engineering systems. It is nowadays perceived to be the most readily available and feasible means of evaluating operations in real railway systems. Based on practical experience and theoretical models developed in various applications, this paper describes the design of a general-purpose simulation system for train operations. Its prime objective is to provide a single comprehensive computer-aided engineering tool for most studies on railway operations so that various aspects of the railway systems with different operation characteristics can be investigated and analysed in depth. This system consists of three levels of simulation. The first is a single-train simulator calculating the running time of a train between specific points under different track geometry and traction conditions. The second is a dual-train simulator which is to find the minimum headway between two trains under different movement constraints, such as signalling systems. The third is a whole-system multi-train simulator which carries out process simulation of the real operation of a railway system according to a practical or planned train schedule or headway; and produces an overall evaluation of system performance.

Millimeter-wave stealth radio for special operations forces

For Special Operations Forces, an important attribute of any future radio will be the ability to conceal transmissions from the enemy while transmitting large amounts of data for situational awareness and communications. These requirements will mean that military wireless systems designers will need to consider operating frequencies in the mm-wave bands: The high data rates that are achievable at these frequencies and the propagation characteristics at this wavelength will provide many benefits for the implementation of 'stealth radio'. This article discusses some of the recent advances in RF front-end technology, alongside physical layer transmission schemes that could be employed for millimeter-wave soldier-mounted radio. The operation of a hypothetical millimeter-wave soldier-to-soldier communications system that makes use of smart antenna technology is also described.

The origins of small wars: from special operations to ideological insurgencies

This edited volume explores the origins of the term small wars and traces it to special operations. In the 17th century, such "guerrilla/petite guerre" special operations grew out of training and winter operations of the regular forces as practiced in the 16th century. In the 18th century, they fused with a tradition going back to Antiquity, of employing special ethnic groups (such as the Hungarian Hussars) for special operations. Side by side with these special operations, however, there was the even older genealogy of uprisings and insurgencies, which since the Spanish Guerrilla of 1808-1812 has been associated with this term. All three traditions have influenced each other.

Studies on the Helminth Fauna of Alaska. XIII. Disease in the Sea Otter, with Special Reference to Helminth Parasites

During the spring of 1951, the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service undertook the removal of sea otter, Enhydra lutris (L)., from the Aleutian Island of Amchitka, for the purpose of restocking range from which the animals have long been exterminated. The decision to undertake this activity was influenced by the nature of military operations planned for the island later the same year. The capture and removal of the otter were under the supervision of Mr. Robert D. Jones, Biologist, U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Heavy losses among the animals shortly after capture made the venture unsuccessful. Many deaths were concurrent among animals in the wild state. The writer was asked to investigate the causes of disease in the sea otter, and it is the purpose of this paper to report the results of these investigation, with special reference to helminth parasites.

Why Belgium Needs a Special Operations Command. Security Policy Brief No. 70, April 2016

The setting up of a Special Operations Command (SOCOM) constitutes a key element of the ongoing Belgian defence reforms. This Policy Brief aims to put the present demand for special operations forces in its historical context and engage in the discussion on how to structure and employ this special instrument of policy. Building on the legacy of the paracommando regiment, the future Belgian SOCOM constitutes a critical capability within an adaptive force structure. This new entity must be able to deliver results in a variety of unconventional missions that require high readiness, intellectual flexibility and maximum discretion or surprise. At the same time, special operations forces do not constitute a substitute for having a comprehensive security policy. They function best when used as force multipliers alongside other instruments of power towards joint effect. As the proverbial tip of the spear, they must lead the way for Belgian defence regeneration in general.