A sequential procedure for comparing two experimental treatments with a control

A procedure is described in which patients are randomized between two experimental treatments and a control. At a series of interim analyses, each experimental treatment is compared with control. One of the experimental treatments might then be found sufficiently superior to the control for it to be declared the best treatment, and the trial stopped. Alternatively, experimental treatments might be eliminated from further consideration at any stage. It is shown how the procedure can be conducted while controlling overall error probabilities. Data concerning evaluation of different doses of riluzole in the treatment of motor neurone disease are used for illustration.

DETECTABILITY AND ERROR ESTIMATION IN ORBITAL FITS OF RESONANT EXTRASOLAR PLANETS

We estimate the conditions for detectability of two planets in a 2/1 mean-motion resonance from radial velocity data, as a function of their masses, number of observations and the signal-to-noise ratio. Even for a data set of the order of 100 observations and standard deviations of the order of a few meters per second, we find that Jovian-size resonant planets are difficult to detect if the masses of the planets differ by a factor larger than similar to 4. This is consistent with the present population of real exosystems in the 2/1 commensurability, most of which have resonant pairs with similar minimum masses, and could indicate that many other resonant systems exist, but are currently beyond the detectability limit. Furthermore, we analyze the error distribution in masses and orbital elements of orbital fits from synthetic data sets for resonant planets in the 2/1 commensurability. For various mass ratios and number of data points we find that the eccentricity of the outer planet is systematically overestimated, although the inner planet`s eccentricity suffers a much smaller effect. If the initial conditions correspond to small-amplitude oscillations around stable apsidal corotation resonances, the amplitudes estimated from the orbital fits are biased toward larger amplitudes, in accordance to results found in real resonant extrasolar systems.

A modified signed likelihood ratio test in elliptical structural models

In this paper we deal with the issue of performing accurate testing inference on a scalar parameter of interest in structural errors-in-variables models. The error terms are allowed to follow a multivariate distribution in the class of the elliptical distributions, which has the multivariate normal distribution as special case. We derive a modified signed likelihood ratio statistic that follows a standard normal distribution with a high degree of accuracy. Our Monte Carlo results show that the modified test is much less size distorted than its unmodified counterpart. An application is presented.

Bayesian estimation of regression parameters in elliptical measurement error models

The main object of this paper is to discuss the Bayes estimation of the regression coefficients in the elliptically distributed simple regression model with measurement errors. The posterior distribution for the line parameters is obtained in a closed form, considering the following: the ratio of the error variances is known, informative prior distribution for the error variance, and non-informative prior distributions for the regression coefficients and for the incidental parameters. We proved that the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients has at most two real modes. Situations with a single mode are more likely than those with two modes, especially in large samples. The precision of the modal estimators is studied by deriving the Hessian matrix, which although complicated can be computed numerically. The posterior mean is estimated by using the Gibbs sampling algorithm and approximations by normal distributions. The results are applied to a real data set and connections with results in the literature are reported. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a sequential injection chromatography (SIC) method for determination of simazine, atrazine, and propazine

This paper describes the development of a sequential injection chromatography (SIC) procedure for separation and quantification of the herbicides simazine, atrazine, and propazine exploring the low backpressure of a 2.5 cm long monolithic C(18) column. The separation of the three compounds was achieved in less than 90 s with resolution > 1.5 using a mobile phase composed by ACN/1.25 mmol/L acetate buffer (pH 4.5) at the volumetric ratio of 35:65 and flow rate of 40 mu L/s. Detection was made at 223 nm using a flow cell with 40 mm of optical path length. The LOD was 10 mu g/L for the three triazines and the quantification limits were of 30 mu g/L for simazine and propazine and 40 mu g/L for atrazine. The sampling frequency is 27 samples per hour, consuming 1.1 mL of ACN per analysis. The proposed methodology was applied to spiked water samples and no statistically significant differences were observed in comparison to a conventional HPLC-UV method. The major metabolites of atrazine and other herbicides did not interfere in the analysis, being eluted from the column either together with the unretained peak, or at retention times well-resolved from the studied compounds.

Implementing stepwise solvent elution in sequential injection chromatography for fluorimetric determination of intracellular free amino acids in the microalgae Tetraselmis gracilis

The concept of sequential injection chromatography (SIC) was exploited to automate the fluorimetric determination of amino acids after pre-column derivatization with ophthaldialdehyde (OPA) in presence of 2-mercaptoethanol (2MCE) using a reverse phase monolithic C(18) stationary phase. The method is low-priced and based on five steps of isocratic elutions. The first step employs the mixture methanol: tetrahydrofuran: 10 mmol L(-1) phosphate buffer (pH 7.2) at the volumetric ratio of 8:1:91; the other steps use methanol: 10 mmol L-1 phosphate buffer (pH 7.2) at volumetric ratios of 20:80, 35:65, SO:SO and 65:35. At a flow rate of 10 mu L s(-1) a 25 mm long-column was able to separate aspartic acid (Asp), glutamic acid (Glu), asparagine (Asn), serine (Ser), glutamine (Gln), glycine (Gly), threonine (Thr), citruline (Ctr), arginine (Arg), alanine (Ala), tyrosine (Tyr), phenylalanine (Phe), ornithine (Orn) and lysine (Lys) with resolution >1.2 as well as methionine (Met) and valine (Val) with resolution of 0.6. Under these conditions isoleucine (Ile) and leucine (Leu) co-eluted. The entire cycle of amino acids derivatization, chromatographic separation and column conditioning at the end of separation lasted 25 min. At a flow rate of 40 mu L s(-1) such time was reduced to 10 min at the cost of resolution worsening for the pairs Ctr/Arg and Orn/Lys. The detection limits varied from 0.092 mu mol L(-1) for Tyr to 0.51 mu mol L(-1) for Orn. The method was successfully applied to the determination of intracellular free amino acids in the green alga Tetraselmis gracilis during a period of seven days of cultivation. Samples spiked with known amounts of amino acids resulted in recoveries between 94 and 112%. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Group Sequential Communication (GSC): Especificação e Análise de Desempenho de umMecanismo de Comunicação de Tempo Real Compatível ao Padrão IEEE 802.11/11e Aplicado à Automação Industrial

This thesis proposes the specification and performance analysis of a real-time communication mechanism for IEEE 802.11/11e standard. This approach is called Group Sequential Communication (GSC). The GSC has a better performance for dealing with small data packets when compared to the HCCA mechanism by adopting a decentralized medium access control using a publish/subscribe communication scheme. The main objective of the thesis is the HCCA overhead reduction of the Polling, ACK and QoS Null frames exchanged between the Hybrid Coordinator and the polled stations. The GSC eliminates the polling scheme used by HCCA scheduling algorithm by using a Virtual Token Passing procedure among members of the real-time group to whom a high-priority and sequential access to communication medium is granted. In order to improve the reliability of the mechanism proposed into a noisy channel, it is presented an error recovery scheme called second chance algorithm. This scheme is based on block acknowledgment strategy where there is a possibility of retransmitting when missing real-time messages. Thus, the GSC mechanism maintains the real-time traffic across many IEEE 802.11/11e devices, optimized bandwidth usage and minimal delay variation for data packets in the wireless network. For validation purpose of the communication scheme, the GSC and HCCA mechanisms have been implemented in network simulation software developed in C/C++ and their performance results were compared. The experiments show the efficiency of the GSC mechanism, especially in industrial communication scenarios.

Sequential spectrophotometric determination of chromium(III) and chromium(VI) using flow injection analysis

A flow injection analysis (FIA) procedure for the speciation of Cr(III) and Cr(VI) using the 1,5-diphenylcarbazide (DPC) method is presented. As Cr(III) does not interfere in the Cr(VI) - DPC reaction, both Cr(VI) and total chromium [after the on-line oxidation of Cr(III) by Ce(IV)] are sequentially determined. Cr(III) is obtained by difference. Under the experimental conditions described, the calibration graphs are linear up to 2 μg mh1 of Cr(VI) and 4 μg ml-1 of Cr(III). The detection limits found were 18 ng ml -1 for Cr(VI) and 55 ng ml-1 for Cr(III), at a signal to noise ratio of 3. The common interfering elements in the Cr(VI) - DPC reaction were investigated under dynamic FIA conditions. The FIA method was also compared with the conventional spectrophotometric procedure.

Sequential Sampling Plan for Tenuipalpus heveae Baker (Acari: Tenuipalpidae) on Rubber Tree

The objective of the present study was to develop a sequential sampling plan for the decision-making process to control Tenuipalpus heveae Baker (Acari: Tenuipalpidae), an important pest of the rubber tree crop. The experimental area was represented by 1,000 plants of the RRIM 600 clone divided in 100 plots with 10 plants each. Leaves were collected and the number of mites determined under laboratory conditions. The sequential sampling plan was developed in accordance with the Sequential Test Likelihood Ratio. The value 0.10 was pre-established for α and β representing type I and type II errors, respectively. The level of control adopted was six mites per 12 cm2. The operating characteristic curve and the curve of maximum expected sample were determined. Two lines were generated: the upper one, when the condition for chemical control is recommended (S1 = 23.3080 + 2.1972); and the lower, when chemical control is not recommended (S0 = -23.3080 + 2.1972). Sample size for the decision-making process to control T. heveae requires 6 to 18 plants. © 2013 Sociedade Entomológica do Brasil.

Distribuição espacial e plano de amostragem seqüencial de ácaros fitófagos na cultura da seringueira [Hevea brasiliensis (Wild. Ex Adr. de Juss.) Müell.Arg.]

Pós-graduação em Agronomia - FEIS

Post-processing of sequential indicator simulation realizations for modeling geologic bodies

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Simultaneous optical signal-to-noise ratio and differential group delay monitoring based on degree of polarization measurements in optical communications systems

We present a simultaneous optical signal-to-noise ratio (OSNR) and differential group delay (DGD) monitoring method based on degree of polarization (DOP) measurements in optical communications systems. For the first time in the literature (to our best knowledge), the proposed scheme is demonstrated to be able to independently and simultaneously extract OSNR and DGD values from the DOP measurements. This is possible because the OSNR is related to maximum DOP, while DGD is related to the ratio between the maximum and minimum values of DOP. We experimentally measured OSNR and DGD in the ranges from 10 to 30 dB and 0 to 90 ps for a 10 Gb/s non-return-to-zero signal. A theoretical analysis of DOP accuracy needed to measure low values of DGD and high OSNRs is carried out, showing that current polarimeter technology is capable of yielding an OSNR measurement within 1 dB accuracy, for OSNR values up to 34 dB, while DGD error is limited to 1.5% for DGD values above 10 ps. For the first time to our knowledge, the technique was demonstrated to accurately measure first-order polarization mode dispersion (PMD) in the presence of a high value of second-order PMD (as high as 2071 ps(2)). (C) 2012 Optical Society of America

Different degrees of malnutrition and immunological alterations according to the aetiology of cirrhosis: a prospective and sequential study

Abstract Objectives In this work we investigated how immunological dysfunction and malnutrition interact in alcoholic and viral aetiologies of cirrhosis. Methods To investigate the matter, 77 cirrhotic patients divided in three aetiologies [Alcohol, HCV and Alcohol + HCV) and 32 controls were prospectivelly and sequentially studied. Parameters of humoral immunity (Components 3 and 4 of seric complement and immunoglobulins A M, G and E) and of cellular immunity (total leukocytes and lymphocytes in peripheral blood, T lymphocytes subpopulations, CD4+ and CD8+, CD4+/CD8+ ratio and intradermic tests of delayed hypersensitivity), as well as nutrititional parameters: anthropometric measures, serum albumin and transferrin were evaluated. Results Multiple statistical comparisons showed that IgM was higher in HCV group; IgG was significantly elevated in both HCV and Alcohol + HCV, whereas for the Alcohol group, IgE was found at higher titles. The analysis of T- lymphocytes subpopulations showed no aetiologic differences, but intradermic tests of delayed hypersensitivity did show greater frequency of anergy in the Alcohol group. For anthropometric parameters, the Alcohol +HCV group displayed the lowest triceps skinfold whereas creatinine – height index evaluation was more preserved in the HCV group. Body mass index, arm muscle area and arm fat area showed that differently from alcohol group, the HCV group was similar to control. Conclusion Significant differences were found among the main aetiologies of cirrhosis concerning immunological alterations and nutritional status: better nutrition and worse immunology for HCV and vice-versa for alcohol.

A note on the use of the generalized odds ratio in meta-analysis of association studies involving bi- and tri-allelic polymorphisms

Abstract Background The generalized odds ratio (GOR) was recently suggested as a genetic model-free measure for association studies. However, its properties were not extensively investigated. We used Monte Carlo simulations to investigate type-I error rates, power and bias in both effect size and between-study variance estimates of meta-analyses using the GOR as a summary effect, and compared these results to those obtained by usual approaches of model specification. We further applied the GOR in a real meta-analysis of three genome-wide association studies in Alzheimer's disease. Findings For bi-allelic polymorphisms, the GOR performs virtually identical to a standard multiplicative model of analysis (e.g. per-allele odds ratio) for variants acting multiplicatively, but augments slightly the power to detect variants with a dominant mode of action, while reducing the probability to detect recessive variants. Although there were differences among the GOR and usual approaches in terms of bias and type-I error rates, both simulation- and real data-based results provided little indication that these differences will be substantial in practice for meta-analyses involving bi-allelic polymorphisms. However, the use of the GOR may be slightly more powerful for the synthesis of data from tri-allelic variants, particularly when susceptibility alleles are less common in the populations (≤10%). This gain in power may depend on knowledge of the direction of the effects. Conclusions For the synthesis of data from bi-allelic variants, the GOR may be regarded as a multiplicative-like model of analysis. The use of the GOR may be slightly more powerful in the tri-allelic case, particularly when susceptibility alleles are less common in the populations.

Outcome-based adaptive randomization for binary data in clinical trials---Compare and contrast

Monte Carlo simulation has been conducted to investigate parameter estimation and hypothesis testing in some well known adaptive randomization procedures. The four urn models studied are Randomized Play-the-Winner (RPW), Randomized Pôlya Urn (RPU), Birth and Death Urn with Immigration (BDUI), and Drop-the-Loses Urn (DL). Two sequential estimation methods, the sequential maximum likelihood estimation (SMLE) and the doubly adaptive biased coin design (DABC), are simulated at three optimal allocation targets that minimize the expected number of failures under the assumption of constant variance of simple difference (RSIHR), relative risk (ORR), and odds ratio (OOR) respectively. Log likelihood ratio test and three Wald-type tests (simple difference, log of relative risk, log of odds ratio) are compared in different adaptive procedures. ^ Simulation results indicates that although RPW is slightly better in assigning more patients to the superior treatment, the DL method is considerably less variable and the test statistics have better normality. When compared with SMLE, DABC has slightly higher overall response rate with lower variance, but has larger bias and variance in parameter estimation. Additionally, the test statistics in SMLE have better normality and lower type I error rate, and the power of hypothesis testing is more comparable with the equal randomization. Usually, RSIHR has the highest power among the 3 optimal allocation ratios. However, the ORR allocation has better power and lower type I error rate when the log of relative risk is the test statistics. The number of expected failures in ORR is smaller than RSIHR. It is also shown that the simple difference of response rates has the worst normality among all 4 test statistics. The power of hypothesis test is always inflated when simple difference is used. On the other hand, the normality of the log likelihood ratio test statistics is robust against the change of adaptive randomization procedures. ^