La transformación de los grupos armados ilegales en Argelia, un desafío en materia de seguridad y defensa para Francia. (2007-2013)

Este estudio de caso busca evaluar las consecuencias de la transformación de los grupos armados ilegales en Argelia para la seguridad y defensa francesa. Se analiza y explica cómo a raíz del cambio de denominación del GIA al GSPC, y este último al actual AQMI, el gobierno francés ha modificado su perspectiva sobre las amenazas hacia su Estado, conllevando a que las herramientas para la protección de su seguridad nacional presenten cambios con el objetivo de contrarrestar esos nuevos escenarios de inseguridad. Para ello se expondrán autores como Walter Laqueur Mohammed Ayoob y Barry Buzan con el fin de establecer un contexto teórico que permita avanzar hacia el objetivo de esta investigación, el cual se centra en demostrar el cambio de la política de seguridad y defensa de Francia a partir de los grupos armados ilegales en Argelia durante el periodo de 2007 a 2013.

La situación de los refugiados palestinos en el Líbano a partir del Acuerdo de Taif en la década de los 90.

El interés de esta monografía es analizar la situación en la que viven los refugiados palestinos en el Líbano a partir de las políticas impuestas por el gobierno desde la década de los 90. Se analiza y explica cómo un Estado con el fin de defender su seguridad nacional se convierte en una fuente de amenazas para la seguridad humana de ciertos individuos. A través de la perspectiva de Barry Buzan se busca explicar el proceso de securitización por medio del cual los refugiados palestinos son vistos como una amenaza existencial para la seguridad nacional libanesa.

Securitización en el desierto: Una respuesta al terrorismo en Malí y en Níger, 2009 - 2013.

Este es un estudio sobre las dinámicas de seguridad en Malí durante el periodo de 2009 a 2013. La investigación busca explicar de qué manera se ha dado un proceso de securitización de los grupos insurgentes frente a la amenaza generada por la proliferación de grupos armados no estatales en el territorio comprendido entre Malí y Níger. Se toma a Níger con el ánimo de ver la existencia de un subcomplejo regional de seguridad entre este país y Malí. De esta manera se afirma que el aumento de las actividades insurgentes y terroristas en la zona compuesta por Malí y Níger se da por la proliferación de actores armados no estatales, entre los cuales se encuentran los grupos seculares e insurgentes Tuareg, las agrupaciones islamistas fundamentalistas y los grupos que se componen entre rebeldes Tuareg, criminales e islamistas, éstos actores han afectado la percepción que tiene Malí sobre su seguridad.

Six party talks desafíos en la implementación de la política exterior de China (2003-2013)

Este estudio de caso se centra en los esfuerzos de China por reanudar los Six Party Talks o Diálogos a Seis Bandas que son considerados como la opción más viable para tratar la situación nuclear en la península coreana.

El rol del Centro de Estudios Estratégicos de Defensa de la Unión de Naciones Suramericanas en la formación de un pensamiento estratégico regional

El presente estudio de caso analiza los aportes del Centro de Estudios Estratégicos de Defensa (CEED) de la Unión de Naciones Suramericanas (Unasur) en la formación de un pensamiento estratégico regional. Cuatro años han transcurrido desde la creación de dicho Centro, por lo que resulta pertinente estudiar sus principales logros y los aportes realizados al Consejo de Defensa Suramericano (CDS) para la formación de un pensamiento estratégico regional en materia de seguridad y defensa.

Crítica a los mecanismos de cooperación entre Colombia y Perú para enfrentar la oferta de drogas ilícitas en la frontera (2003-2012)

El objetivo de esta investigación es explicar la forma en que la oferta de drogas ilícitas en la frontera ha configurado los mecanismos de cooperación entre Colombia y Perú de 2003 a 2012. Éste será desarrollado a través de los conceptos de cooperación (Keohane 1984) y securitización (Buzan 1998), que condujeron al estudio del proceso de coordinación política en tres etapas (Balzacq 2010): qué se dice en los acuerdos de cooperación entre Colombia y Perú, cómo han actuado los Estados en la frontera y cómo ese comportamiento ha afectado la posibilidad de coordinación política con Ecuador y Brasil dentro del micro complejo regional de seguridad. De esta manera, se probará que el tema de la oferta de drogas ilícitas en la frontera permanece en el campo politizado en la agenda colombo-peruana, mientras que la posibilidad de vínculos entre grupos armados organizados de ambos Estados está securitizada.

The Determinants of Recovery Rates on Defaulted Corporate Securities: Why do Fallen Angels recover more than Original High Yield Issues?

Regression analysis has shown that recovery rates are determined by a variety of conditions at the time of default. These conditions can be broken into five major categories: (1) a security's seniority within the capital structure of the defaulting firm, (2) the type of default event, (3) firm-specific factors, (4) industry-specific factors, and (5) macroeconomic factors. Expectations of these inputs determine the expected recovery rate if default were to occur, thereby determining credit ratings and security prices. Although it is widely understood how recovery rate estimates influence credit rating assignments (the higher the expected recovery rate, the higher the assigned credit rating), no research, to the best of my knowledge, has investigated the reasons why higher rated securities recover more than lower rated securities in the event of default. Specifically, this paper will empirically investigate why securities originally rated investment grade, fallen angels, recover more than securities originally rated high yield in the event of default.

Mitigating high ‘equity capital’ risk exposure to ‘small cap’ sector in India: analysing ‘key factors of success’ for ‘Institutional Investors’ whilst Investing in small cap sector in India

This paper deals with the subject of mitigating high ‘Equity Capital’ Risk Exposure to ‘Small Cap’ Sector in India. Institutional investors in India are prone to be risk averse when it comes to investing in the small cap sector in India as they find the companies risky and volatile. This paper will help analyse ‘Key Factors of success’ for ‘Institutional Investors’ whilst investing in Small Cap sector in India as some of these Indian small cap stocks offer handsome returns despite economic downturn. This paper has been harnessed carefully under the influence of expert investors, which includes Benjamin Graham (Security Analysis); Warren Buffet; Philip Fisher (Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits); and Aswath Damodaran.

Método da continuação aplicado na análise de contingência de linhas de transmissão

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Utilização de índices de estabilidade transitória para a avaliação de segurança dinâmica

Indices that report how much a contingency is stable or unstable in an electrical power system have been the object of several studies in the last decades. In some approaches, indices are obtained from time-domain simulation; others explore the calculation of the stability margin from the so-called direct methods, or even by neural networks.The goal is always to obtain a fast and reliable way of analysing large disturbance that might occur on the power systems. A fast classification in stable and unstable, as a function of transient stability is crucial for a dynamic security analysis. All good propositions as how to analyse contingencies must present some important features: classification of contingencies; precision and reliability; and efficiency computation. Indices obtained from time-domain simulations have been used to classify the contingencies as stable or unstable. These indices are based on the concepts of coherence, transient energy conversion between kinetic energy and potential energy, and three dot products of state variable. The classification of the contingencies using the indices individually is not reliable, since the performance of these indices varies with each simulated condition. However, collapsing these indices into a single one can improve the analysis significantly. In this paper, it is presented the results of an approach to filter the contingencies, by a simple classification of them into stable, unstable or marginal. This classification is performed from the composite indices obtained from step by step simulation with a time period of the clearing time plus 0.5 second. The contingencies originally classified as stable or unstable do not require this extra simulation. The methodology requires an initial effort to obtain the values of the intervals for classification, and the weights. This is performed once for each power system and can be used in different operating conditions and for different contingencies. No misplaced classification o- - ccurred in any of the tests, i.e., we detected no stable case classified as unstable or otherwise. The methodology is thus well fitted for it allows for a rapid conclusion about the stability of th system, for the majority of the contingencies (Stable or Unstable Cases). The tests, results and discussions are presented using two power systems: (1) the IEEE17 system, composed of 17 generators, 162 buses and 284 transmission lines; and (2) a South Brazilian system configuration, with 10 generators, 45 buses and 71 lines.

Assessment of branch outage contingencies using the continuation method

This paper provides a contribution to the contingency analysis of electric power systems under steady state conditions. An alternative methodology is presented for static contingency analyses that only use continuation methods and thus provides an accurate determination of the loading margin. Rather than starting from the base case operating point, the proposed continuation power flow obtains the post-contingency loading margins starting from the maximum loading and using a bus voltage magnitude as a parameter. The branch selected for the contingency evaluation is parameterised using a scaling factor, which allows its gradual removal and assures the continuation power flow convergence for the cases where the method would diverge for the complete transmission line or transformer removal. The applicability and effectiveness of the proposed methodology have been investigated on IEEE test systems (14, 57 and 118 buses) and compared with the continuation power flow, which obtains the post-contingency loading margin starting from the base case solution. In general, for most of the analysed contingencies, few iterations are necessary to determine the post-contingency maximum loading point. Thus, a significant reduction in the global number of iterations is achieved. Therefore, the proposed methodology can be used as an alternative technique to verify and even to obtain the list of critical contingencies supplied by the electric power systems security analysis function. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Método da continuação aplicado na análise de contingência de linhas de transmissão

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise dinâmica de contingências de sistemas de energia elétrica por redes neurais baseadas na teoria da ressonância adaptativa

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Algebraic-graph method for identification of islanding in power system grids

In this paper, a new algebraic-graph method for identification of islanding in power system grids is proposed. The proposed method identifies all the possible cases of islanding, due to the loss of a equipment, by means of a factorization of the bus-branch incidence matrix. The main features of this new method include: (i) simple implementation, (ii) high speed, (iii) real-time adaptability, (iv) identification of all islanding cases and (v) identification of the buses that compose each island in case of island formation. The method was successfully tested on large-scale systems such as the reduced south Brazilian system (45 buses/72 branches) and the south-southeast Brazilian system (810 buses/1340 branches). (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.