Is your vision consistent? A method for checking, based on scenario concepts

Common sense tells us that the future is an essential element in any strategy. In addition, there is a good deal of literature on scenario planning, which is an important tool in considering the future in terms of strategy. However, in many organizations there is serious resistance to the development of scenarios, and they are not broadly implemented by companies. But even organizations that do not rely heavily on the development of scenarios do, in fact, construct visions to guide their strategies. But it might be asked, what happens when this vision is not consistent with the future? To address this problem, the present article proposes a method for checking the content and consistency of an organization's vision of the future, no matter how it was conceived. The proposed method is grounded on theoretical concepts from the field of future studies, which are described in this article. This study was motivated by the search for developing new ways of improving and using scenario techniques as a method for making strategic decisions. The method was then tested on a company in the field of information technology in order to check its operational feasibility. The test showed that the proposed method is, in fact, operationally feasible and was capable of analyzing the vision of the company being studied, indicating both its shortcomings and points of inconsistency. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative analysis of regionalism in Latin America and Asia-Pacific

Includes bibliography

A comissão própria de avaliação na promoção da qualidade em instituições de ensino: um estudo sobre a gestão do conhecimento no ensino superior privado

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Identificação e análise da relação entre a utilização de construtos da qualidade e o desempenho e competitividade organizacional

A growing number of companies is adopting quality management systems to achieve better performance and remain competitive in the market. These systems, however, can prove quite complex because they involve different practices and factors. This paper seeks to identify and analyze how each of these factors and practices, defined as quality constructs, influence the performance and competitiveness in the organizational environment and thus contribute to the strategic decisions in the area of quality. To achieve that, a survey was conducted with industrial companies located in the state of São Paulo, and the data was analyzed by a structural equation software. As a result, it was observed that the constructs Customer Focus and Human Resources are the most influent for the competitive criteria of a company, while the constructs Supplier development and Customer Focus exert greater impact on performance

Princípios da cultura de paz e estratégias de sensibilização em relações públicas no Programa Cidades Sustentáveis

The proposal of this article is discuss about the concept of social responsibility in the context of the activity of Public Relations in order to verify how this concept is related to the notion of Peace Culture. It is a complex concept supported by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) which, among other objectives, seeks to interpret and also paid up organizational objectives to local and global demands by articulating social actions that lead to a sustainable development and management of cities. For this, we will defend the use of audiovisual resource for awareness of stakeholders as a strategic tool in Public Relations for the efficacy of topics related to "Sustainable Cities Program”, about which we will briefly discuss. The Program is a nonpartisan initiative that focuses on the sustainable management of cities so it functions as a tool that assists municipal managers in making strategic decisions.

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Complication and failure rates of fixed dental prostheses in patients treated for periodontal disease

Objectives: To evaluate the biological and technical complication rates of fixed dental prostheses (FDP) with end abutments or cantilever extensions on teeth (FDP-tt/cFDP-tt) on implants (FDP-ii/cFDP-ii) and tooth-implant-supported (FDP-ti/cFDP-ti) in patients treated for chronic periodontitis. Material and methods: From a cohort of 392 patients treated between 1978 and 2002 by graduate students, 199 were re-examined in 2005. Of these, 84 patients had received ceramo-metal FDPs (six groups). Results: At the re-evaluation, the mean age of the patients was 62 years (36.2–83.4). One hundred and seventy-five FDPs were seated (82 FDP-tt, 9 FDP-ii, 20 FDP-ti, 39 cFDP-tt, 15 cFDP-ii, 10 cFDP-ti). The mean observation time was 11.3 years; 21 FDPs were lost, and 46 technical and 50 biological complications occurred. Chances for the survival of the three groups of FDPs with end abutments were very high (risk for failure 2.8%, 0%, 5.6%). The probability to remain without complications and/or failure was 70.3%, 88.9% and 74.7% in FDPs with end abutments, but 49.8–25% only in FDPs with extensions at 10 years. Conclusions: In patients treated for chronic periodontitis and provided with ceramo-metal FDPs, high survival rates, especially for FDPs with end abutments, can be expected. The incidence rates of any negative events were increased drastically in the three groups with extension cFDPs (tt, ii, ti). Strategic decisions in the choice of a particular FDP design and the choice of teeth/implants as abutments appear to influence the risks for complications to be expected with fixed reconstruction. If possible, extensions on tooth abutments should be avoided or used only after a cautious clinical evaluation of all options.

An Intelligent Assistant for Public Transport Management

This paper describes the architecture of a computer system conceived as an intelligent assistant for public transport management. The goal of the system is to help operators of a control center in making strategic decisions about how to solve problems of a fleet of buses in an urban network. The system uses artificial intelligence techniques to simulate the decision processes. In particular, a complex knowledge model has been designed by using advanced knowledge engineering methods that integrates three main tasks: diagnosis, prediction and planning. Finally, the paper describes two particular applications developed following this architecture for the cities of Torino (Italy) and Vitoria (Spain).

Estudio de viabilidad de un campo exploratorio en África central según diferentes regímenes fiscales

El objetivo del presente proyecto consiste en analizar la viabilidad de un campo de E&P (Exploración y Producción) de hidrocarburos situado en Gabón en función de diferentes regímenes fiscales con el fin de estudiar el reparto de la renta entre el gobierno y la compañía petrolífera. Tras estudiar los parámetros técnicos del proyecto y confirmar su viabilidad desde un punto de vista puramente técnico, en la segunda parte del estudio se analiza para un mismo campo el impacto que tiene la variación de una serie de parámetros que dependen únicamente del tipo de contrato acordado entre el gobierno y la compañía petrolífera. Existen principalmente dos tipos de contratos que los gobiernos de los países productores aplican a las compañías extranjeras que pretenden operar en ellos. Mediante el estudio realizado se pone de manifiesto que las decisiones estratégicas en proyectos de E&P de hidrocarburos están íntimamente sujetas a condiciones fiscales. La decisión de firmar un tipo de contrato u otro puede ser determinante para la rentabilidad o no de este tipo de proyectos. ABSTRACT The main goal of this project is to analyze the feasibility of a E&P project located in Gabon according to different tax regimes in order to study the profits distribution between the government and the oil company. After studying the technical parameters and confirm its viability from a technical point of view, in the second part of the study were analyzed for the same field the impact of the variation of some parameters that only depends on the type of contract agreed between the government and the oil company. There are mainly two types of contracts that governments of producing countries apply to foreign companies seeking to operate in them. Through the study it appears that strategic decisions in E&P projects are closely hydrocarbon tax policies apply.

Hacia un Plano de Directrices Territoriales y Urbanísticas como instrumento esencial para la Habitabilidad Básica

La habitabilidad precaria (HaP) constituye hoy el primer problema mundial del urbanismo, la ordenación del territorio y varias otras disciplinas, como la arquitectura y varias ingenierías que, en conjunto, estructuran e impulsan el sector de la construcción mundial que se centra en atender el alojamiento humano en su diversidad de funciones. En la Conferencia Habitat II, celebrada en 1996 en Estambul, ante el desmesurado crecimiento cuantitativo de la HaP mundial, se planteó la prioridad de prevenir el problema de los nuevos asentamientos precarios: “paliar los problemas relacionados con los asentamientos humanos espontáneos mediante programas y políticas que se anticipen a los asentamientos no planeados”1, sin embargo, tras casi veinte años, aún no existe una herramienta sustantiva y específica que facilite a los políticos responsables de gestionar el desarrollo urbano en ciudades con bajos recursos de países en desarrollo, tomar decisiones que transformen de la forma más eficiente posible el fenómeno de la proliferación de asentamientos informales en una oportunidad de progreso y prosperidad para sus ciudades. La presente tesis parte de la convicción, que trata de fundamentar objetivamente a lo largo del desarrollo de su documentación, de que dicha herramienta fundamental ha de buscarse, a partir de la teoría Habitabilidad Básica, como un soporte esencial con el que reconducir los futuros procesos de ocupación espontánea periurbana. El propósito de la investigación se concreta en caracterizar, y conocer la óptima aplicabilidad, de un instrumento operativo elemental que ayude en la toma de decisiones estratégicas de las autoridades responsables sobre la mejor ubicación de los asentamientos que, hasta la existencia y aplicabilidad de este instrumento, se consideran espontáneos. Asentamientos espontáneos éstos que, en condiciones normales quedarían sujetos durante años a la precariedad mientras que por medio de tal instrumento abandonarían su génesis espontánea para acceder a través de planificación elemental a condiciones de Habitabilidad Básica. La materialización concreta de esta herramienta sería un plano sintético de directrices de ordenación territorial y urbana denominado Plano de Elección del Sitio (PES). Diseñado como un Modelo Teórico Elemental, su aplicación estaría preferentemente orientada a ciudades pequeñas de países en desarrollo que presenten escaso nivel institucional, limitada capacidad económica y técnica, así como ausencia o ineficacia en su planeamiento. A través de un proceso de investigación basado en: la mencionada teoría de la Habitabilidad Básica, la literatura científica de la materia y las experiencias de casos recientes de planificación urbana mediante la aplicación de sistemas de información del suelo, se propone una caracterización y aplicabilidad preliminar de la herramienta. Tras analizar pormenorizadamente sus fortalezas y debilidades y contando con la participación de un grupo de expertos independientes, el trabajo concluye con una nueva caracterización de la herramienta y la reformulación de la hipótesis inicial. ABSTRACT Nowadays, the precarious habitability (PHa) is the main problem of urbanism around the world, land-use planning and several other disciplines such as architecture and different engineering studies that, as a whole, structure and boost the global construction sector which focuses on meeting the Human accommodation in its functional diversity. In the Habitat II Conference in Istanbul in 1996, in light of the excessive quantitative growth of the global PHa, the priority of preventing the problem of new squatter settlements was raised: "to alleviate the problems related to spontaneous human settlements through programs and policies that anticipate unplanned settlements"2, however, after nearly twenty years, there is still no substantive and specific tool to facilitate policy makers to manage urban development for towns with low-income in developing countries, taking decisions that transform as efficiently as possible the phenomenon of the proliferation of informal settlements into an opportunity for progress and prosperity for their cities. This thesis is based on the conviction, which tries to objectively substantiate along the development of its documentation, that this fundamental tool has to be sought from the Basic Habitability theory as an essential support to redirect the future processes of peri-urban spontaneous occupation. The purpose of the research is carried out to characterize, and know the optimum applicability of a basic operational tool to assist in the strategic decisions making of the responsible authorities on the best location of settlements that, until the existence and applicability of this instrument, are considered spontaneous. Spontaneous settlements which, under normal conditions would be subject to the precariousness for years while under that instrument they would abandon their spontaneous genesis for accessing by elemental planning to the Basic Habitability. The concretionary materialization of this tool would be a synthetic guidelines plan of territorial and urban planning called Site Election Plan (SEP). Designed as a Elementary Theoretical Model, its application would preferably be oriented for small towns in developing countries that represent a low institutional, economic and technical limited capacity, as well as the absence or ineffectiveness in their planning. Throughout a research process based on: the aforementioned theory of Basic Habitability, the scientific literature of the subject and the experiences of recent cases of urban planning through the application of soil information systems, characterization and preliminary applicability of the tool is proposed. After attentively analyzing their strengths and weaknesses and with the participation of a group of independent experts, the paper concludes with a new characterization of the tool and the reformulation of the initial hypothesis.

Grupos estratégicos en el sector hotelero español: diferencias de desempeño intra e intergrupo

El mundo es cada vez más pequeño debido a los avances tecnológicos y a la mayor experiencia de los directivos hoteleros y de los turistas, lo que provoca que la rivalidad entre destinos en el sector turístico sea cada vez mayor. Ante esta situación, este estudio se centra en el sector hotelero español y aplica los grupos estratégicos para determinar de qué forma compiten los hoteles y cómo influyen sus comportamientos estratégicos en su desempeño. Asimismo, se ofrecen acciones para mejorar el desempeño de un hotel en función del grupo estratégico al que pertenezca. La relevancia de este estudio radica en que clarifica la complejidad estratégica a la que están sometidos los directivos de los hoteles y les sirve de guía para la toma de decisiones estratégicas.

Enrichment of the Phenotypic and Genotypic Data Warehouse analysis using Question Answering systems to facilitate the decision making process in cereal breeding programs

Currently there are an overwhelming number of scientific publications in Life Sciences, especially in Genetics and Biotechnology. This huge amount of information is structured in corporate Data Warehouses (DW) or in Biological Databases (e.g. UniProt, RCSB Protein Data Bank, CEREALAB or GenBank), whose main drawback is its cost of updating that makes it obsolete easily. However, these Databases are the main tool for enterprises when they want to update their internal information, for example when a plant breeder enterprise needs to enrich its genetic information (internal structured Database) with recently discovered genes related to specific phenotypic traits (external unstructured data) in order to choose the desired parentals for breeding programs. In this paper, we propose to complement the internal information with external data from the Web using Question Answering (QA) techniques. We go a step further by providing a complete framework for integrating unstructured and structured information by combining traditional Databases and DW architectures with QA systems. The great advantage of our framework is that decision makers can compare instantaneously internal data with external data from competitors, thereby allowing taking quick strategic decisions based on richer data.

The need for a New Pact. CHALLENGE EUROPE Issue 22 - Challenges and new beginnings: Priorities for the EU’s new leadership, September 2014.

During the last political cycle (2009-2014), the European Union (EU) went through the worst crisis of its history. In the months and years to come, the new EU leadership and Member States will have to take major decisions if Europeans want to sustainably overcome the crisis, prepare themselves for the manifold internal and external tests ahead, and provide the grounds for Europe to exploit more of its potential and meet the needs and expectations of citizens. The outcome of this venture is unclear considering the 'state of the Union' and the current mood in Brussels and national capitals. But one thing seems rather certain: to generate active support from citizens and elites, future developments at European and national level need to be driven by confidence and renewed ambition and not, as in the past years, by fear first – fear of a euro implosion; or of an involuntary exit from the common currency with unforeseeable consequences. In order to take strategic decisions about the Union's future, there is a need to identify and address the key challenge(s) and provide a coherent and holistic response on the grounds of an ambitious but at the same time pragmatic 'package deal', taking into account the diverging interests of Member States and their citizens. But what is the state of affairs, what is the key strategic challenge and how can the new EU leadership cope with it in the next political cycle (2014-2019)?

State of the Union and key challenges for Europe's future. CHALLENGE EUROPE Issue 22 - Challenges and new beginnings: Priorities for the EU's new leadership, September 2014.

In the last five years deep cracks have appeared in the European project. The 'euro-area crisis' triggered by a severe global financial and economic crisis has put European integration to a major test, more profound than ever before. The experience of recent years has revealed and exacerbated significant deficiencies in the European Union's (EU) economic and political construction. At time it has cast doubt on fundamentals of the European project and raised questions about whether Europe will be able to deal effectively not only with the immediate crisis, but also with the many other serious socio-economic, politico-institutional, societal and global challenges that Europe is and will be confronted with. At the start of a new institutional-political cycle (2014-2019) and while the crisis situation has for a number of reasons improved significantly since the summer of 2012, at least in systemic terms, the Union's new leadership and Member States will now have to take strategic decisions about the future of European integration.