Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

A new method for conditioning stochastic groundwater flow models in fractured media

Many geological formations consist of crystalline rocks that have very low matrix permeability but allow flow through an interconnected network of fractures. Understanding the flow of groundwater through such rocks is important in considering disposal of radioactive waste in underground repositories. A specific area of interest is the conditioning of fracture transmissivities on measured values of pressure in these formations. This is the process where the values of fracture transmissivities in a model are adjusted to obtain a good fit of the calculated pressures to measured pressure values. While there are existing methods to condition transmissivity fields on transmissivity, pressure and flow measurements for a continuous porous medium there is little literature on conditioning fracture networks. Conditioning fracture transmissivities on pressure or flow values is a complex problem because the measurements are not linearly related to the fracture transmissivities and they are also dependent on all the fracture transmissivities in the network. We present a new method for conditioning fracture transmissivities on measured pressure values based on the calculation of certain basis vectors; each basis vector represents the change to the log transmissivity of the fractures in the network that results in a unit increase in the pressure at one measurement point whilst keeping the pressure at the remaining measurement points constant. The fracture transmissivities are updated by adding a linear combination of basis vectors and coefficients, where the coefficients are obtained by minimizing an error function. A mathematical summary of the method is given. This algorithm is implemented in the existing finite element code ConnectFlow developed and marketed by Serco Technical Services, which models groundwater flow in a fracture network. Results of the conditioning are shown for a number of simple test problems as well as for a realistic large scale test case.

Stochastic and infinite dimensional analysis

This volume presents a collection of papers covering applications from a wide range of systems with infinitely many degrees of freedom studied using techniques from stochastic and infinite dimensional analysis, e.g. Feynman path integrals, the statistical mechanics of polymer chains, complex networks, and quantum field theory. Systems of infinitely many degrees of freedom create their particular mathematical challenges which have been addressed by different mathematical theories, namely in the theories of stochastic processes, Malliavin calculus, and especially white noise analysis. These proceedings are inspired by a conference held on the occasion of Prof. Ludwig Streit’s 75th birthday and celebrate his pioneering and ongoing work in these fields.

Host and Network Optimizations for Performance Enhancement and Energy Efficiency in Data Center Networks

Modern data centers host hundreds of thousands of servers to achieve economies of scale. Such a huge number of servers create challenges for the data center network (DCN) to provide proportionally large bandwidth. In addition, the deployment of virtual machines (VMs) in data centers raises the requirements for efficient resource allocation and find-grained resource sharing. Further, the large number of servers and switches in the data center consume significant amounts of energy. Even though servers become more energy efficient with various energy saving techniques, DCN still accounts for 20% to 50% of the energy consumed by the entire data center. The objective of this dissertation is to enhance DCN performance as well as its energy efficiency by conducting optimizations on both host and network sides. First, as the DCN demands huge bisection bandwidth to interconnect all the servers, we propose a parallel packet switch (PPS) architecture that directly processes variable length packets without segmentation-and-reassembly (SAR). The proposed PPS achieves large bandwidth by combining switching capacities of multiple fabrics, and it further improves the switch throughput by avoiding padding bits in SAR. Second, since certain resource demands of the VM are bursty and demonstrate stochastic nature, to satisfy both deterministic and stochastic demands in VM placement, we propose the Max-Min Multidimensional Stochastic Bin Packing (M3SBP) algorithm. M3SBP calculates an equivalent deterministic value for the stochastic demands, and maximizes the minimum resource utilization ratio of each server. Third, to provide necessary traffic isolation for VMs that share the same physical network adapter, we propose the Flow-level Bandwidth Provisioning (FBP) algorithm. By reducing the flow scheduling problem to multiple stages of packet queuing problems, FBP guarantees the provisioned bandwidth and delay performance for each flow. Finally, while DCNs are typically provisioned with full bisection bandwidth, DCN traffic demonstrates fluctuating patterns, we propose a joint host-network optimization scheme to enhance the energy efficiency of DCNs during off-peak traffic hours. The proposed scheme utilizes a unified representation method that converts the VM placement problem to a routing problem and employs depth-first and best-fit search to find efficient paths for flows.

Distributed Large-scale Mixed-Integer Optimization with Application to Energy and Multi-robot Networks

Several decision and control tasks in cyber-physical networks can be formulated as large- scale optimization problems with coupling constraints. In these "constraint-coupled" problems, each agent is associated to a local decision variable, subject to individual constraints. This thesis explores the use of primal decomposition techniques to develop tailored distributed algorithms for this challenging set-up over graphs. We first develop a distributed scheme for convex problems over random time-varying graphs with non-uniform edge probabilities. The approach is then extended to unknown cost functions estimated online. Subsequently, we consider Mixed-Integer Linear Programs (MILPs), which are of great interest in smart grid control and cooperative robotics. We propose a distributed methodological framework to compute a feasible solution to the original MILP, with guaranteed suboptimality bounds, and extend it to general nonconvex problems. Monte Carlo simulations highlight that the approach represents a substantial breakthrough with respect to the state of the art, thus representing a valuable solution for new toolboxes addressing large-scale MILPs. We then propose a distributed Benders decomposition algorithm for asynchronous unreliable networks. The framework has been then used as starting point to develop distributed methodologies for a microgrid optimal control scenario. We develop an ad-hoc distributed strategy for a stochastic set-up with renewable energy sources, and show a case study with samples generated using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). We then introduce a software toolbox named ChoiRbot, based on the novel Robot Operating System 2, and show how it facilitates simulations and experiments in distributed multi-robot scenarios. Finally, we consider a Pickup-and-Delivery Vehicle Routing Problem for which we design a distributed method inspired to the approach of general MILPs, and show the efficacy through simulations and experiments in ChoiRbot with ground and aerial robots.

Contrasting Effects Of Land Use Intensity And Exotic Host Plants On The Specialization Of Interactions In Plant-herbivore Networks.

Human land use tends to decrease the diversity of native plant species and facilitate the invasion and establishment of exotic ones. Such changes in land use and plant community composition usually have negative impacts on the assemblages of native herbivorous insects. Highly specialized herbivores are expected to be especially sensitive to land use intensification and the presence of exotic plant species because they are neither capable of consuming alternative plant species of the native flora nor exotic plant species. Therefore, higher levels of land use intensity might reduce the proportion of highly specialized herbivores, which ultimately would lead to changes in the specialization of interactions in plant-herbivore networks. This study investigates the community-wide effects of land use intensity on the degree of specialization of 72 plant-herbivore networks, including effects mediated by the increase in the proportion of exotic plant species. Contrary to our expectation, the net effect of land use intensity on network specialization was positive. However, this positive effect of land use intensity was partially canceled by an opposite effect of the proportion of exotic plant species on network specialization. When we analyzed networks composed exclusively of endophagous herbivores separately from those composed exclusively of exophagous herbivores, we found that only endophages showed a consistent change in network specialization at higher land use levels. Altogether, these results indicate that land use intensity is an important ecological driver of network specialization, by way of reducing the local host range of herbivore guilds with highly specialized feeding habits. However, because the effect of land use intensity is offset by an opposite effect owing to the proportion of exotic host species, the net effect of land use in a given herbivore assemblage will likely depend on the extent of the replacement of native host species with exotic ones.

Complex networks: the key to systems biology

Though introduced recently, complex networks research has grown steadily because of its potential to represent, characterize and model a wide range of intricate natural systems and phenomena. Because of the intrinsic complexity and systemic organization of life, complex networks provide a specially promising framework for systems biology investigation. The current article is an up-to-date review of the major developments related to the application of complex networks in biology, with special attention focused on the more recent literature. The main concepts and models of complex networks are presented and illustrated in an accessible fashion. Three main types of networks are covered: transcriptional regulatory networks, protein-protein interaction networks and metabolic networks. The key role of complex networks for systems biology is extensively illustrated by several of the papers reviewed.

Neural networks and statistical analysis for classification of corneal videokeratography maps based on Zernike coefficients: a quantitative comparison

PURPOSE: The main goal of this study was to develop and compare two different techniques for classification of specific types of corneal shapes when Zernike coefficients are used as inputs. A feed-forward artificial Neural Network (NN) and discriminant analysis (DA) techniques were used. METHODS: The inputs both for the NN and DA were the first 15 standard Zernike coefficients for 80 previously classified corneal elevation data files from an Eyesys System 2000 Videokeratograph (VK), installed at the Departamento de Oftalmologia of the Escola Paulista de Medicina, São Paulo. The NN had 5 output neurons which were associated with 5 typical corneal shapes: keratoconus, with-the-rule astigmatism, against-the-rule astigmatism, "regular" or "normal" shape and post-PRK. RESULTS: The NN and DA responses were statistically analyzed in terms of precision ([true positive+true negative]/total number of cases). Mean overall results for all cases for the NN and DA techniques were, respectively, 94% and 84.8%. CONCLUSION: Although we used a relatively small database, results obtained in the present study indicate that Zernike polynomials as descriptors of corneal shape may be a reliable parameter as input data for diagnostic automation of VK maps, using either NN or DA.

Reaction-diffusion stochastic lattice model for a predator-prey system

We have the purpose of analyzing the effect of explicit diffusion processes in a predator-prey stochastic lattice model. More precisely we wish to investigate the possible effects due to diffusion upon the thresholds of coexistence of species, i. e., the possible changes in the transition between the active state and the absorbing state devoid of predators. To accomplish this task we have performed time dependent simulations and dynamic mean-field approximations. Our results indicate that the diffusive process can enhance the species coexistence.

Evaluation of follicular lymphoid depletion in the Bursa of Fabricius: an alternative methodology using digital image analysis and artificial neural networks

Fifty Bursa of Fabricius (BF) were examined by conventional optical microscopy and digital images were acquired and processed using Matlab® 6.5 software. The Artificial Neuronal Network (ANN) was generated using Neuroshell® Classifier software and the optical and digital data were compared. The ANN was able to make a comparable classification of digital and optical scores. The use of ANN was able to classify correctly the majority of the follicles, reaching sensibility and specificity of 89% and 96%, respectively. When the follicles were scored and grouped in a binary fashion the sensibility increased to 90% and obtained the maximum value for the specificity of 92%. These results demonstrate that the use of digital image analysis and ANN is a useful tool for the pathological classification of the BF lymphoid depletion. In addition it provides objective results that allow measuring the dimension of the error in the diagnosis and classification therefore making comparison between databases feasible.

Exact time-dependent solutions for a self-regulating gene

The exact time-dependent solution for the stochastic equations governing the behavior of a binary self-regulating gene is presented. Using the generating function technique to rephrase the master equations in terms of partial differential equations, we show that the model is totally integrable and the analytical solutions are the celebrated confluent Heun functions. Self-regulation plays a major role in the control of gene expression, and it is remarkable that such a microscopic model is completely integrable in terms of well-known complex functions.

Classification of breast masses using a committee machine of artificial neural networks

This work proposes a new approach using a committee machine of artificial neural networks to classify masses found in mammograms as benign or malignant. Three shape factors, three edge-sharpness measures, and 14 texture measures are used for the classification of 20 regions of interest (ROIs) related to malignant tumors and 37 ROIs related to benign masses. A group of multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) is employed as a committee machine of neural network classifiers. The classification results are reached by combining the responses of the individual classifiers. Experiments involving changes in the learning algorithm of the committee machine are conducted. The classification accuracy is evaluated using the area A. under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. The A, result for the committee machine is compared with the A, results obtained using MLPs and single-layer perceptrons (SLPs), as well as a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifier Tests are carried out using the student's t-distribution. The committee machine classifier outperforms the MLP SLP, and LDA classifiers in the following cases: with the shape measure of spiculation index, the A, values of the four methods are, in order 0.93, 0.84, 0.75, and 0.76; and with the edge-sharpness measure of acutance, the values are 0.79, 0.70, 0.69, and 0.74. Although the features with which improvement is obtained with the committee machines are not the same as those that provided the maximal value of A(z) (A(z) = 0.99 with some shape features, with or without the committee machine), they correspond to features that are not critically dependent on the accuracy of the boundaries of the masses, which is an important result. (c) 2008 SPIE and IS&T.

Fully Connected PLL Networks: How Filter Determines the Number of Nodes

Synchronization plays an important role in telecommunication systems, integrated circuits, and automation systems. Formerly, the masterslave synchronization strategy was used in the great majority of cases due to its reliability and simplicity. Recently, with the wireless networks development, and with the increase of the operation frequency of integrated circuits, the decentralized clock distribution strategies are gaining importance. Consequently, fully connected clock distribution systems with nodes composed of phase-locked loops (PLLs) appear as a convenient engineering solution. In this work, the stability of the synchronous state of these networks is studied in two relevant situations: when the node filters are first-order lag-lead low-pass or when the node filters are second-order low-pass. For first-order filters, the synchronous state of the network shows to be stable for any number of nodes. For second-order filter, there is a superior limit for the number of nodes, depending on the PLL parameters. Copyright (C) 2009 Atila Madureira Bueno et al.

Crossover between the extended and localized regimes in stochastic partially self-avoiding walks in one-dimensional disordered systems

Consider N sites randomly and uniformly distributed in a d-dimensional hypercube. A walker explores this disordered medium going to the nearest site, which has not been visited in the last mu (memory) steps. The walker trajectory is composed of a transient part and a periodic part (cycle). For one-dimensional systems, travelers can or cannot explore all available space, giving rise to a crossover between localized and extended regimes at the critical memory mu(1) = log(2) N. The deterministic rule can be softened to consider more realistic situations with the inclusion of a stochastic parameter T (temperature). In this case, the walker movement is driven by a probability density function parameterized by T and a cost function. The cost function increases as the distance between two sites and favors hops to closer sites. As the temperature increases, the walker can escape from cycles that are reminiscent of the deterministic nature and extend the exploration. Here, we report an analytical model and numerical studies of the influence of the temperature and the critical memory in the exploration of one-dimensional disordered systems.

A reliable measure of similarity based on dependency for short time series: an application to gene expression networks

Background: Microarray techniques have become an important tool to the investigation of genetic relationships and the assignment of different phenotypes. Since microarrays are still very expensive, most of the experiments are performed with small samples. This paper introduces a method to quantify dependency between data series composed of few sample points. The method is used to construct gene co-expression subnetworks of highly significant edges. Results: The results shown here are for an adapted subset of a Saccharomyces cerevisiae gene expression data set with low temporal resolution and poor statistics. The method reveals common transcription factors with a high confidence level and allows the construction of subnetworks with high biological relevance that reveals characteristic features of the processes driving the organism adaptations to specific environmental conditions. Conclusion: Our method allows a reliable and sophisticated analysis of microarray data even under severe constraints. The utilization of systems biology improves the biologists ability to elucidate the mechanisms underlying celular processes and to formulate new hypotheses.