Russian sanctions against Moldova. Minor effects, major potential. OSW COMMENTARY No. 152, 2014-11-06

Russia has been Moldova’s main trade partner and Russian capital has accounted for a large part of its foreign investments, dominating in the energy and the banking sectors. Moreover, Russia has been a key job market for Moldovan expatriate workers. In the economic sphere, this is making Moldova unilaterally dependent on Russia. Moscow has been attempting to exploit this situation to put pressure on the authorities in Chișinău for quite some time. In recent months Russia has increasingly used instruments for exerting economic pressure on Moldova, as a means of responding to the current authorities’ pro-Western policy. A key element of this policy was Moldova’s signing on 27 June 2014 of the Association Agreement with the EU (which came into force on 1 September 2014). Over the last year, Russia has implemented a number of import restrictions on Moldovan goods. The aim of the Russian actions is to fuel social disappointment, and ultimately – to prevent the pro-European coalition currently in power from winning the parliamentary elections scheduled for 30 November 2014. Another aim might be to convince the Moldovan authorities to suspend the implementation of the Association Agreement – a plan openly put forward by Vladimir Putin during the CIS summit in Minsk on 10 October 2014. So far, however, the Russian economic sanctions have failed to produce the expected results. Support for the pro-European parties has been high, and there is little chance that the pro-Russian groups might achieve a parliamentary majority. It is not inconceivable, then, that in the upcoming months Moscow might decide to resort to other, more potent instruments of economic pressure such as speculation on the financial market, carried out as part of its de facto control over the banking sector. Another possibility is further tightening of trade restrictions, issuing expatriate workers from Russia or using Moldova’s dependence on Russian energy.

German companies strengthen their cooperation with Russian gas suppliers. OSW Commentary No. 64, 2011-10-24

Germany’s decision to give up the use of nuclear energy will force it to find a conventional low-carbon energy source as a replacement; in the short term, in addition to coal, this is likely to be gas. Due to their continued high debt and the losses associated with the end of atomic power, German companies will not be able to spend large funds on investing in conventional energy. First of all, they will aim to raise capital and repay their debts. The money for this will come from selling off their less profitable assets; this will include sales on the gas market. This will create opportunities for natural gas exporters and extraction companies such as Gazprom to buy back some of the German companies’ assets (electricity companies, for example). The German companies will probably continue to seek to recover the costs incurred in the investment projects already underway, such as Nord Stream, the importance of which will grow after Russian gas imports increase. At the same time, because of their debts, the German companies will seek to minimise their investment costs by selling some shares on the conventional energy market, to Russian corporations among others; the latter would thus be able to increase their stake in the gas market in both Western (Germany, Great Britain, the Benelux countries) and Central Europe (Poland, the Czech Republic). It is possible that while establishing the details of cooperation between the Russian and German companies, Russia will try to put pressure on Germany to give up competing projects such as Nabucco. However, a well-diversified German energy market should be able to defend itself against attempts to increase German dependence on Russian gas supplies and the dictates of high prices.

The Russian economy under Putin: Growth factors and impediments to economic development. OSW Study 20/2005

After a dramatic economic decline after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the financial breakdown of 1998, the Russian economy has begun to emerge from its deep crisis. The years 1999-2004 were a period of dynamic development in all sectors of Russian economy, and saw a rapid growth in GDP of over 7 per cent per year. Russia owed the excellent macroeconomic results of that period to a combination of favourable factors. The key factors were: high hydrocarbon prices on the global markets; an increase in Russia's international competitiveness thanks to the "rouble devaluation effect" (following the 1998 financial crash); and the market reforms carried out within that period. In 2004, despite very high oil and gas prices on world markets, a slowdown of the GDP growth took place. Even though the economy is still developing fairly rapidly, we are able to say that Russia is exhausting those traditional mechanisms (apart from oil and gas prices) which have hitherto stimulated GDP growth. Moreover, there are no new mechanisms which could replace the old ones. In the longer term, these unsolved structural problems may seriously impede Russia's economic growth.

‘The oil friendship’: the state of and prospects for Russian-Chinese energy cooperation. OSW Commentary NUMBER 197|17.02.2016

The oil sector has been the major element of Russian-Chinese energy cooperation. The years 2013–2015 saw a significant increase in the volume of crude oil exported by Russia. In 2015, China became the main importer of Russian oil; Russia became the second largest supplier of oil to the Chinese market, after Saudi Arabia. From Beijing’s perspective, supplies of Russian oil are of strategic importance because the main supply routes are overland routes. Russia, for its part, is interested in boosting its export because of its deteriorating position on the European market, which hitherto has been considered a strategic market.

International Branding Strategies : In Swedish and Russian Fashion Companies

There are a lot of different business strategies for any company. However, in the fashion industry, the best way to become successful is to develop the brand using special branding strategies. Hence, a brand is the main weapon for fashion companies, which helps to launch international market and to create loyal customers around the world. Nowadays, due to the difficult current political situations and the collapse of oil and the dollar a lot of companies in different industries have to change their business strategies. It is especially true for fashion companies, because they depend on consumers ' income and their purchasing power. In the case of the fashion industry, branding strategy development can be more effective, than just business strategy. Hence, this thesis discusses the following problem: What branding strategy should Russian and Swedish fashion companies choose in order to build a strong brand and enter the international market.  The purpose of this thesis is to analyze various branding strategies of Russian and Swedish fashion companies during the process of entering foreign markets. At the end of this thesis, practical contribution in their process of international branding strategy creation will be discussed. In order to answer research questions more broadly and accurately, the mixed research method, using quantitive and qualitative study through interviews and survey was chosen. Semi-structured interviews were made with the CEO and brand managers of Russian and Swedish fashion companies. Moreover, the survey was made with two different questionnaires: for Russian and for Swedish customers. In the case of qualitative research, the author found that fashion companies from Russia and Sweden have got not just some features and differences, but also common aspects. The primary data from interviews allowed the author to understand the specifics of brand management in the fashion industry. It was found, that there are some useful aspects in Swedish strategies, which can be used by Russian companies to develop their brands on the international market. In the case of quantitative research, preferences of consumers from Russia and Sweden were analyzed and also some features were identified. Survey results provided the author with a common understanding about purchase habits, attitudes and perceptions to fashion brands. According to these, some hypothesizes, which are formulated in the first part of the thesis, have been proven or disproven. It was found, that preferences of Russian and Swedish people are pretty the same, however Russian customers do not like to risk with new brands and prefer well-known and trusted brands while Swedish customers are open for any brand, which can satisfy their tastes.

A Markovian model market-Akerlof`s lemons and the asymmetry of information

In this work we study an agent based model to investigate the role of asymmetric information degrees for market evolution. This model is quite simple and may be treated analytically since the consumers evaluate the quality of a certain good taking into account only the quality of the last good purchased plus her perceptive capacity beta. As a consequence, the system evolves according to a stationary Markov chain. The value of a good offered by the firms increases along with quality according to an exponent alpha, which is a measure of the technology. It incorporates all the technological capacity of the production systems such as education, scientific development and techniques that change the productivity rates. The technological level plays an important role to explain how the asymmetry of information may affect the market evolution in this model. We observe that, for high technological levels, the market can detect adverse selection. The model allows us to compute the maximum asymmetric information degree before the market collapses. Below this critical point the market evolves during a limited period of time and then dies out completely. When beta is closer to 1 (symmetric information), the market becomes more profitable for high quality goods, although high and low quality markets coexist. The maximum asymmetric information level is a consequence of an ergodicity breakdown in the process of quality evaluation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Music and faith: The religious scene in the Brazilian phonographic market

This text discusses the phonographic segment of religious music in Brazil in its two main manifestations, linked respectively to the Catholic and Protestant traditions. The text offers a brief history of both traditions, as well as a description of their main recording companies and artists of greatest prominence. In its final part. the text presents the strategies that bring together recording companies and independent artists, as well as ponders over Brazil`s independent musical production as a whole.

FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND THE BRAZILIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET

This article discusses the main aspects of the Brazilian real estate market in order to illustrate if it would be attractive for a typical American real estate investor to buy office-building portfolios in Brazil. The article emphasizes: [i] - the regulatory frontiers, comparing investment securitization, using a typical American REIT structure, with the Brazilian solution, using the Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario - FII; [ii] - the investment quality attributes in the Brazilian market, using an office building prototype, and [iii] - the comparison of [risk vs. yield] generated by an investment in the Brazilian market, using a FII, benchmarked against an existing REIT (OFFICE SUB-SECTOR) in the USA market. We conclude that investing dollars exchanged for Reais [the Brazilian currency] in a FII with a triple A office-building portfolio in the Sao Paulo marketplace will yield an annual income and a premium return above an American REIT investment. The highly aggressive scenario, along with the strong persistent exchange rate detachment to the IGP-M variations, plus instabilities affecting the generation of income, and even if we adopt a 300-point margin for the Brazil-Risk level, demonstrates that an investment opportunity in the Brazilian market, in the segment we have analyzed, outperforms an equivalent investment in the American market.

Sampled Control for Mean-Variance Hedging in a Jump Diffusion Financial Market

In this technical note we consider the mean-variance hedging problem of a jump diffusion continuous state space financial model with the re-balancing strategies for the hedging portfolio taken at discrete times, a situation that more closely reflects real market conditions. A direct expression based on some change of measures, not depending on any recursions, is derived for the optimal hedging strategy as well as for the ""fair hedging price"" considering any given payoff. For the case of a European call option these expressions can be evaluated in a closed form.

Incidence of black spot in citrus fruits from different processing stages in packinghouses and from Sao Paulo`s wholesale market

The purposes of this work were a) to evaluate citrus black spot (CBS) incidence in `Valencia` oranges and `Murcott` tangors aimed at the export market, and in Pera`, `Lima` and `Natal` oranges, and `Murcott` tangors, aimed at the domestic market after different processing stages in packinghouses in 2004/05 and 2005/06; b) to evaluate CBS incidence in Pera` and `Lima` oranges and `Murcott` tangors sold at Ceagesp-SP, the biggest wholesale market in the State of Sao Paulo, in 2006. Citrus fruits were collected at the packinghouse, on their arrival, after pre-washing and de-greening, from the packing table, from the pallet and at Ceagesp. They were stored for 14 to 21 days at 25 degrees C and 85-90% RH. The incidence of CBS was visually evaluated after one day and at the end of the storage period. CBS incidence in fruits aimed at the export market decreased, with values under 2.0% on arrival and no CBS symptoms observed on fruits from the pallet. The average incidence of CBS in `Pera`, `Lima` and `Natal` oranges, and `Murcott` tangors in the packinghouse aimed at the domestic market were 64.1, 39.0, 32.1 and 19.3%, respectively, after one day of storage, then remaining constant in all processing stages. The incidence of CBS in Ceagesp fruits was low in winter months and increased in the spring. The increase in disease incidence during the storage period (21 days) was not significant in collected fruits.

Postharvest diseases in citrus and characterization of the fungal population in Sao Paulo`s wholesale market

The purposes of this workwere to characterize postharvest injuries and to evaluate the physicochemical characteristics of`Nra` and `Lima`oranges and `Murcott` tangor at Ceagesp market, as well as to characterize the environmental mycoflora in retail points at Ceagesp in 2006. Fruits collected at retail points were stored for 14 days at 25 degrees C and 85-90% RH. The incidence of injuries was visually evaluated every three days. The physicochemical characteristics analyzed were titratable acidity and soluble solids amount. The environmental mycoflora was sampled according to the gravimetric method, using Petri dishes containing potato-dextrose-agar medium+pentabiotic opened for two minutes. The average rot incidences in `Pera` and `Lima` oranges and `Murcott` tangor were 12.8, 14.9 and 25.8%, respectively, at the end of the storage period, and green mold was the main postharvest disease. Associations between physicochemical parameters and rot incidence was, in general, not significant. The environmental fungal population varied significantly between the sampling months in retail points with an average of 25.3 cfu/plate. Penicillium and Cladosporium were the most recorded genera of fungi. Positive correlation (r=0.96) was observed between frequency of P digitatum found in the environment of retail points and the green mold in on-sale fruits of `Pera` orange. However, for `Lima` orange and `Murcott` tangor such a correlation was not verified.

Stone fruit injuries and damage at the wholesale market of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Mechanical injuries and diseases in stone fruit are important causes for market rejection. The objectives of this research were to quantify and characterize the mechanical injuries and diseases in peaches, nectarines and plums at Sao Paulo`s wholesale market, the largest in Brazil. Incidence of injuries was assessed weekly in 1 % of the marketed fruit (2973 fruit/week), from September to December in 2003 and 2004. Mechanical injuries were the most frequent injuries in both years, ranging from 8.73% (plum) to 44.5% (nectarine) of injured fruit. There was a significant positive correlation between the incidence of postharvest mechanical injuries and postharvest diseases. Incidence of postharvest diseases varied from 2.5% to 6.6%. Cladosporium rot (Cladosporium sp.) and brown rot (Monilinia fructicola) were the most frequent diseases, and were mostly detected in the apexes of nectarines and peaches. Aurora (peach), Sunraycer (nectarine) and Gulfblaze (plum) varieties were the most susceptible to injuries and diseases. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the competitiveness of loss allocation methods in a deregulated electricity market

This paper critically assesses several loss allocation methods based on the type of competition each method promotes. This understanding assists in determining which method will promote more efficient network operations when implemented in deregulated electricity industries. The methods addressed in this paper include the pro rata [1], proportional sharing [2], loss formula [3], incremental [4], and a new method proposed by the authors of this paper, which is loop-based [5]. These methods are tested on a modified Nordic 32-bus network, where different case studies of different operating points are investigated. The varying results obtained for each allocation method at different operating points make it possible to distinguish methods that promote unhealthy competition from those that encourage better system operation.

A hybrid probabilistic criterion for market-based transmission expansion planning

Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.

APSR Market Day

Notes for presentation