Will income inequality cause a middle-income trap in Asia? Bruegel Working Paper 2013/06, 10 October 2013

The Asian economy is expected to realise favourable growth during the first half of this century, but there is no guarantee. There is a discussion about a ‘middle-income trap’, which refers to a country that has realised rapid growth to become a middle-income country but is unable to grow further. A middle-income trap could occur not only if there is a delay in shifting the economy toward a productivity-driven structure, but also if there is a worsening of income distribution.We consider this in line with the theories of development economics and through a quantitative analysis. The relationship between income inequality and the trap can be explained by the Kuznets hypothesis and the basic-needs approach. Our quantitative analysis supports the Kuznets hypothesis, and indicates that,although a low-income country can accelerate its economic growth with the worsening of income distribution as an engine, a middle income country would experience a decreasing growth rate if it fails to narrow the income gap between the top and bottom income groups. The results also show that the basic-needs approach is also applicable in practice, and imply that the improvement of access to secondary education is important. A sensitivity analysis for three Asian upper-middle-income countries(China, Malaysia and Thailand) also shows that the situation related to a middle-income trap is worse than average in China and Malaysia. These two countries, according to the result of the sensitivity analysis, should urgently improve access to secondary education and should implement income redistribution measures to develop high-tech industries, before their demographic dividends expire. Income redistribution includes the narrowing of rural urban income disparities, benefits to low-income individuals, direct income transfers, vouchers or free provision of education and health-care, and so on, but none of these are simple to implement.

The importance of forest area and configuration relative to local habitat factors for conserving forest mammals: A case study of koalas in Queensland, Australia

The loss and fragmentation of forest habitats by human land use are recognised as important factors influencing the decline of forest-dependent fauna. Mammal species that are dependent upon forest habitats are particularly sensitive to habitat loss and fragmentation because they have highly specific habitat requirements, and in many cases have limited ability to move through and utilise the land use matrix. We addressed this problem using a case study of the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) surveyed in a fragmented rural-urban landscape in southeast Queensland, Australia. We applied a logistic modelling and hierarchical partitioning analysis to determine the importance of forest area and its configuration relative to site (local) and patch-level habitat variables. After taking into account spatial auto-correlation and the year of survey, we found koala occurrence increased with the area of all forest habitats, habitat patch size and the proportion of primary Eucalyptus tree species; and decreased with mean nearest neighbour distance between forest patches, the density of forest patches, and the density of sealed roads. The difference between the effect of habitat area and configuration was not as strong as theory predicts, with the configuration of remnant forest becoming increasingly important as the area of forest habitat declines. We conclude that the area of forest, its configuration across the landscape, as well as the land use matrix, are important determinants of koala occurrence, and that habitat configuration should not be overlooked in the conservation of forest-dependent mammals, such as the koala. We highlight the implications of these findings for koala conservation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The CCRUSH Study: Coarse and fine particulate matter measurements in northeastern Colorado 2009-2012

Coarse (PM10-2.5) and fine (PM2.5) particulate matter in the atmosphere adversely affect human health and influence climate. While PM2.5 is relatively well studied, less is known about the sources and fate of PM10-2.5. The Colorado Coarse Rural-Urban Sources and Health (CCRUSH) study measured PM10-2.5 and PM2.5 mass concentrations, as well as the fraction of semi-volatile material (SVM) in each size regime (SVM2.5, SVM10-2.5), for three years in Denver and comparatively rural Greeley, Colorado. Agricultural operations east of Greeley appear to have contributed to the peak PM10-2.5 concentrations there, but concentrations were generally lower in Greeley than in Denver. Traffic-influenced sites in Denver had PM10-2.5 concentrations that averaged from 14.6 to 19.7 µg/m**3 and mean PM10-2.5/PM10 ratios of 0.56 to 0.70, higher than at residential sites in Denver or Greeley. PM10-2.5 concentrations were more temporally variable than PM2.5 concentrations. Concentrations of the two pollutants were not correlated. Spatial correlations of daily averaged PM10-2.5 concentrations ranged from 0.59 to 0.62 for pairs of sites in Denver and from 0.47 to 0.70 between Denver and Greeley. Compared to PM10-2.5, concentrations of PM2.5 were more correlated across sites within Denver and less correlated between Denver and Greeley. PM10-2.5 concentrations were highest during the summer and early fall, while PM2.5 and SVM2.5 concentrations peaked in winter during periodic multi-day inversions. SVM10-2.5 concentrations were low at all sites. Diurnal peaks in PM10-2.5 and PM2.5 concentrations corresponded to morning and afternoon peaks of traffic activity, and were enhanced by boundary layer dynamics. SVM2.5 concentrations peaked around noon on both weekdays and weekends. PM10-2.5 concentrations at sites located near highways generally increased with wind speeds above about 3 m/s. Little wind speed dependence was observed for the residential sites in Denver and Greeley.

Weaving Futures. Family Transnationalism in the migration from Dominican Republic and Brazil to Spain

This article explores forms of migrant families’ reorganization within a (new) global economic crisis and the hardening of migration control in Europe; based on the cases of Dominican and Brazilian migration to Spain.Our goal is not to characterize the wholeness of strategies from these collectives, instead visualize its heterogeneity. Displacement of Dominican and Brazilian population to Spain shares the role of women as the first link of migration chains. In both cases women are the economic support of transnational families and they lead reunification's processes. Nevertheless, differences in the time spent in the destination country, migratory status, origin (rural-urban), level of education, class and labor insertion in destination country, affect differently, the planning and start up of migration projects, the organization of care and family reunification strategies. These findings question the predominant place granted to national origin in the study of international migration.

Economic Development and Mass Poverty in Africa: Assessment of the Nigerian Experience

The forces surrounding the emerging economies of underdeveloped world, especially Africa has practically stifled its economic progress, growth, development and sustainability. This economic condition brings to the fore the massive onslaught of rural/urban poverty which the African continent grapples with since the post-world war II era to date. The economic misfortunes and incidence of mass poverty in Africa, vis-à-vis Nigeria is used as a point of departure in this study. The paper underscores the ideological and philosophical undertone of international capital manifesting in form of colonialism and imperialism as a major character in the historical process of underdevelopment and mass poverty in peripheral states of Africa, Asia and Latin America, respectively. Of particular interest in this study is the activities of domestic bourgeoisie elite class who have vigorously displayed some degree of lack of much needed vision and abject lack of desires to draw up workable plans to redeem the battered image of African/ Nigerian economic misfortunes. This state of affairs has practically engendered economic underdevelopment, misery and disturbing levels of poverty in the nation-state system. The paper concludes with the forward towards realizing the vision 20-20-20 objectives in the 21t century and beyond.

Investigating voice

So, when it came to deciding upon an area of research, how I used my own voice became the main focus in a broader investigation of voice within sonic environments. I wanted to explore, for my own practice, what effect the inclusion of the human voice may have within a composition. For the purposes of my research, sonic environment does not refer to specific types of environment (i.e., rural, urban etc.); rather, it refers to the use of field recordings of sounds from my own everyday life, for example house keys, the rain, a squeaky door.

An examination of factors that influence entrepreneurial intention of high school students in Kenya

Abstract Considerable research has been carried out on entrepreneurship in efforts to understand its incidence in order to influence and maximize its benefits. Essentially, researchers and policy makers have sought to understand the link between individuals and business creation: Why some people start businesses while others do not. The research indicates that personality traits, individual background factors and association of entrepreneurship with career choice and small business enterprises, cannot sufficiently explain entrepreneurship. It is recognized that entrepreneurship is an intentional process and based on Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behavior, the most defining characteristic of entrepreneurship is the intention to start a business. The purpose of this study was, therefore, to examine factors that influence entrepreneurial intention in high school students in Kenya. Specifically, the study aimed at determining if there were relationships between the perceptions of desirability, and feasibility of entrepreneurship with entrepreneurial intention of the students, identifying any difference in these perceptions with students of different backgrounds, and developing a model to predict entrepreneurship in the students. The study, therefore, tested how well Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behavior applied in the Kenyan situation. A questionnaire was developed and administered to 969 final year high school students at a critical important point in their career decision making. Participants were selected using a combined convenience and random sampling technique, considering gender, rural/urban location, cost, and accessibility. Survey was the major method of data collection. Data analysis methods included descriptive statistics, correlation, ANOVA, factor analysis, effect size, and regression analysis. iii The findings of this study corroborate results from past studies. Attitudes are found to influence intention, and the attitudes to be moderated by individual background factors. Perceived personal desirability of entrepreneurship was found to have the greatest influence on entrepreneurial intention and perceived feasibility the lowest. The study findings also showed that perceived social desirability and feasibility of entrepreneurship contributed to perception of personal desirability, and that the background factors, including gender and prior experience, influenced entrepreneurial intention both directly and indirectly. In addition, based on the literature reviewed, the study finds that entrepreneurship promotion requires reduction of the high small business mortality rate and creation of both entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial opportunities (Kruger, 2000; Shane & Venkataraman, 2000). These findings have theoretical and practical implications for researchers, policy makers, teachers, and other entrepreneurship practitioners in Kenya.

Mensuração de perdas de sedimentos por escoamento superficial em encostas, com uso de parcelas de erosão, em diferentes usos e coberturas do solo no Bioma Cerrado : Bacia Hidrográfica do Ribeirão do Gama/DF

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Humanas, Departamento de Geografia, 2015.

Modelação do cancro da mama na região do Alentejo

Estudos epidemiológicos são estudos estatísticos onde se procura relacionar ocorrências de eventos de saúde com uma ou várias causas específicas. A importância que os modelos epidemiológicos assumem hoje no estudo de doenças de foro oncológico, em particular no estabelecimento das suas etiologias, é incontornável. Segundo Ogden, J. (1999) o cancro é "um crescimento incontrolável de células anormais que produzem tumores chamados neoplasias". Estes tumores podem ter origem benigna (não se espalham pelo corpo) ou maligna (apresentam metastização de outros órgãos). Sendo uma doença actual, com uma elevada taxa de incidência em Portugal quando comparada com outras doenças (Instituto Nacional de Estatística- INE, 2009), aumentando esta taxa com a idade tal como refere Marques, L. (2003), podendo ocorrer o diagnóstico desta doença em qualquer idade. De acordo com INE (2000) pode dizer-se que o cancro está entre as três principais causas de morte em Portugal, registando-se um aumento progressivo do seu peso proporcional, sendo o cancro da mama o tipo de cancro mais comum entre as mulheres e uma das doenças com maior impacto na nossa sociedade. O objectivo principal deste trabalho é a estimação e modelação do risco de contrair uma doença de natureza não contagiosa e rara (neste caso, cancro da mama), usando dados da região do Alentejo. Pretende-se fazer um apanhado das metodologias mais empregues nesta área e aplicá-las na prática, com ênfase nos estudos caso-controlo e nos modelos lineares generalizados (GLM) - mais concretamente regressão logística. Os estudos caso-controlo são usados para identificar os factores que podem contribuir para uma condição médica, comparando indivíduos que têm essa condição (casos) com pacientes que não têm a condição, mas que de resto são semelhantes (controlos). Neste trabalho utilizou-se essa metodologia para estudar a associação entre o viver em ambiente rural/urbano e o cancro da mama. Tendo em conta que o objectivo principal deste estudo se prende com o estudo da relação entre variáveis, mais propriamente, análise de influência que uma ou mais variáveis (explicativas) têm sobre uma variável de interesse (resposta), para esse efeito são estudados os modelos lineares generalizados - GLM - unificados na mesma moldura teórica pela primeira vez por Nelder & Wedderburn (1972) - e, posteriormente aplicados ao conjunto de dados sobre cancro da mama na Região do Alentejo. O presente trabalho pretende assim, ser um contributo na identificação de factores de risco do cancro da mama na região do Alentejo. ABSTRACT: Epidemiological studies are statistical studies where attempts to relate occurrences of health events with one or more specific causes. The importance of epidemiological models that are far in the study of diseases of cancer forum, particularly in establishing their etiology, is inescapable. According to Ogden, J. (1999) cancer is "an incontrollable growth of abnormal cells that produce tumors called cancer". These tumors may be benign (not spread throughout the body) or malignant (show metastasis to other organs). Being a current illness with a high incidence rate in Portugal compared with the same respect to other diseases (National Statistics 1nstitute -1NE, 2009) having an increasing rate with age as mentioned Marques, L. (2003), and can possibly be diagnosed at any age. According to 1NE (2000) the cancer is among the top three causes of death in Portugal and there is a progressive increase of its proportional weight. Breast cancer is the most common form of cancer among women and the diseases with major impact in our society. The main objective of this work is to model and estimate the risk of contracting a non-contagious and rare disease (in this case, breast cancer), using data from the Alentejo region. It is intended to summarize some of the methodologies employed in this area and apply them in practice, with emphasis on case-control studies and generalized linear models (GLM) - more specifically the logistic regression. The case-control studies are used to identify factors that may contribute to a medical condition, comparing individuals who have this condition (cases) with patients who have not the condition but that are otherwise similar (controls). ln this work we used this methodology to study the association between living in a rural/urban and breast cancer. Given that the main objective of this study rather relates to the study of the relationship between variables to analyze the influence that one or more variables (explanatory) have on a variable (response), for this purpose we study the generalized linear models - GLM - first unified in the same theoretical framework by Nelder and Wedderburn (1972) and subsequently applied to the data set on breast cancer in the Alentejo region. This work intends to be a contribution in identifying risk factors for breast cancer in the Alentejo region.

Methods and tools to foster territorial approaches for the assessment of food supply chains

The challenges of the current global food systems are often framed around feeding the world's growing population while meeting sustainable development for future generations. Globalization has brought to a fragmentation of food spaces, leading to a flexible and mutable supply chain. This poses a major challenge to food and nutrition security, affecting also rural-urban dynamics in territories. Furthermore, the recent crises have highlighted the vulnerability to shocks and disruptions of the food systems and the eco-system due to the intensive management of natural, human and economic capital. Hence, a sustainable and resilient transition of the food systems is required through a multi-faceted approach that tackles the causes of unsustainability and promotes sustainable practices at all levels of the food system. In this respect, a territorial approach becomes a relevant entry point of analysis for the food system’s multifunctionality and can support the evaluation of sustainability by quantifying impacts associated with quantitative methods and understanding the territorial responsibility of different actors with qualitative ones. Against this background the present research aims to i) investigate the environmental, costing and social indicators suitable for a scoring system able to measure the integrated sustainability performance of food initiatives within the City/Region territorial context; ii) develop a territorial assessment framework to measure sustainability impacts of agricultural systems; and iii) define an integrated methodology to match production and consumption at a territorial level to foster a long-term vision of short food supply chains. From a methodological perspective, the research proposes a mixed quantitative and qualitative research method. The outcomes provide an in-depth view into the environmental and socio-economic impacts of food systems at the territorial level, investigating possible indicators, frameworks, and business strategies to foster their future sustainable development.

Rural and Urban Streams: Anthropogenic Influences and Impacts on Water and Sediment Quality

The Pirapo river watershed (Parana State, Brazil) compounds a relatively industrialized and urbanized region, undergoing great pressure from the discharge of industrial, agricultural and domestic wastes. We evaluated the environmental quality of ten streams belonging to this watershed in April and June 2008 by performing acute and chronic toxicity tests with Daphnia similis and Ceriodaphnia silvestrii from water and sediment samples. We tested the hypothesis that the streams located in urban areas are more exposed to the influence of pollutants, than those outside the city limits. In addition, we obtained the measures of physical and chemical parameters, and identified the main polluted sources. Contrary to what was expected, the rural streams were more toxic than those located in urban area. These results demonstrate that the water bodies located in rural areas are being affected by the pollution of aquatic ecosystems as far as those found in urban areas, requiring the same attention of environmental managers in relation to its monitoring.

Discoloration and fungal growth on three fiber cement formulations exposed in urban, rural and coastal zones

Three formulations of fiber cement were evaluated for fungal colonization and color change after five years of exposure in aging stations located in urban (Sao Paulo), rural (Pirassununga) and coastal (Rio Grande) zones in Brazil. The lowest color change and fungal colonization were registered in Rio Grande, which has a temperate climate, as opposed to Sao Paulo and Pirassununga, which are tropical. The highest fungal colonization was recorded in Sao Paulo, one of the most air polluted cities in Brazil. Pirassununga samples had an intermediate fungal colonization, in spite of showing the highest color change with visible dark spots on the surfaces. These spots were identified as cyanobacteria, which significantly contributed to the darkening of the specimens. The fiber cement formulation, varying in proportion of organic fibers such as poly (vinyl alcohol) and cellulose, was less significant for fungal bioreceptivity than the characteristics of the exposure site. The most frequent fungal genus found in the tropical climate, in both urban and rural zones, and the main one responsible for the higher records in Sao Paulo, was Scytalidiurn sp. which was registered for the first time on this building material in Brazil. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social and psychiatric influences on urban-rural differentials in Australian suicide

The purpose of this study was to investigate urban-rural differentials in Australian suicide rates, and to examine influences that previously have remained largely speculative. Suicide rates for males (all ages and young adults) were significantly higher in rural areas compared to urban areas. Urban-rural suicide rate differences in males were rendered nonsignificant after adjustment for migrant and area socioeconomic status. Adjusting for mental disorder prevalence, in addition to migrant status, reduced the excess suicide risk in rural areas; the excess was reduced further with addition of mental health service utilization. The implications of this study are that socioeconomic circumstances in rural populations contribute to higher male suicide rates compared to urban areas, but these conditions may be partly mediated by mental disorder prevalence and mental health service utilization.

Rural and urban attitudes to the conservation of Asian elephants in Sri Lanka: Empirical evidence

There has been little study of economic and general attitudes towards the conservation of the Asian elephant. This paper reports and analyses results from surveys conducted in Sri Lanka of attitudes of urban dwellers and farmers towards nature conservation in general and the elephant conservation in particular. The analyses are based on urban and a rural sample. Contingent valuation techniques are used as survey instruments. Multivariate logit regression analysis is used to analyze the respondents’ attitudes towards conservation of elephants. It is found that, although some variations occurred between the samples, the majority of the respondents (both rural and urban) have positive attitudes towards nature conservation in general. However, marked differences in attitudes toward elephant conservation are evident between these two samples: the majority of urban respondents were in favour of elephant conservation; rural respondents expressed a mixture of positive and negative attitudes. Overall, considerable unrecorded and as yet unutilised economic support for conservation of wild elephants exists in Sri Lanka.