847 resultados para Risk and loss functions


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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

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The aim of this study was to analyze the efficacy of cognitive-motor dual-task training compared with single-task training on balance and executive functions in individuals with Parkinson's disease. Fifteen subjects, aged between 39 and 75 years old, were randomly assigned to the dual-task training group (n = 8) and single-task training group (n = 7). The training was run twice a week for 6 weeks. The single-task group received balance training and the dual-task group performed cognitive tasks simultaneously with the balance training. There were no significant differences between the two groups at baseline. After the intervention, the results for mediolateral sway with eyes closed were significantly better for the dual-task group and anteroposterior sway with eyes closed was significantly better for the single-task group. The results suggest superior outcomes for the dual-task training compared to the single-task training for static postural control, except in anteroposterior sway with eyes closed.

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Exercise promotes several health benefits, such as cardiovascular, musculoskeletal and cardiorespiratory improvements. It is believed that the practice of exercise in individuals with psychiatric disorders, e.g. schizophrenia, can cause significant changes. Schizophrenic patients have problematic lifestyle habits compared with general population; this may cause a high mortality rate, mainly caused by cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. Thus, the aim of this study is to investigate changes in physical and mental health, cognitive and brain functioning due to the practice of exercise in patients with schizophrenia. Although still little is known about the benefits of exercise on mental health, cognitive and brain functioning of schizophrenic patients, exercise training has been shown to be a beneficial intervention in the control and reduction of disease severity. Type of training, form of execution, duration and intensity need to be better studied as the effects on physical and mental health, cognition and brain activity depend exclusively of interconnected factors, such as the combination of exercise and medication. However, one should understand that exercise is not only an effective nondrug alternative, but also acts as a supporting linking up interventions to promote improvements in process performance optimization. In general, the positive effects on mental health, cognition and brain activity as a result of an exercise program are quite evident. Few studies have been published correlating effects of exercise in patients with schizophrenia, but there is increasing evidence that positive and negative symptoms can be improved. Therefore, it is important that further studies be undertaken to expand the knowledge of physical exercise on mental health in people with schizophrenia, as well as its dose-response and the most effective type of exercise.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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This paper analyses the Portuguese stock market since it reopened in 1977, with a special focus on the evolution of the statistic and stochastic characteristics of the market return throughout this 36 year period. The market return for the period of time between 1977 and 2012 (September 28th) is estimated and then compared with the return that would have been achieved with Government bonds and treasury bills, which allows us to confirm that the hierarchy of return / risk across the different financial instruments is verified. The market risk premium for this 36 year period is also estimated and a comparison with other markets is performed, suggesting that the Portuguese market’s risk has not been compensated by an adequate return. The study also examines the evolution of the Portuguese market’s volatility in the 1977-2012 period and compares it with other markets, showing the existence of extremely high peaks during the first 11 years, but indicating a downwards trend throughout the whole period under analysis. Finally, the correlation between market returns for Portugal and for other countries and the degree of integration are estimated and their evolution throughout time is assessed, leading to the conclusion that the performance of the Portuguese stock market has become increasingly correlated with major European markets – correlation with some markets close to 0.70 from 2000 onwards-, but that country-specific risk factors are still relevant.

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We examine whether earnings manipulation around seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) is associated with an increase in the likelihood of a stock price crash post-issue and test whether the enactment of securities regulations attenuate the relation between SEOs and crash risk. Empirical evidence documents that managerial tendency to conceal bad news increases the likelihood of a stock price crash (Jin and Myers, 2006; Hutton, Marcus, and Tehranian, 2009). We test this hypothesis using a sample of firms from 29 EU countries that enacted the Market Abuse Directive (MAD). Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that equity issuers that engage in earnings management experience a significant increase in crash risk post-SEO relative to control groups of non-issuers; this effect is stronger for equity issuers with poor information environments. In addition, our findings show a significant decline in crash risk post-issue after the enactment of MAD that is stronger for firms that actively manage earnings. This decline in post-issue crash risk is more effective in countries with high ex-ante institutional quality and enforcement. These results suggest that the implementation of MAD helps to mitigate managers’ ability to manipulate earnings around SEOs.

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Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

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Transforming growth factor beta (TGF-ß) plays an important role in carcinogenesis. Two polymorphisms in the TGF-ß1 gene (-509C/T and 869T/C) were described to influence susceptibility to gastric and breast cancers. The 869T/C polymorphism was also associated with overall survival in breast cancer patients. In the present study, we investigated the relevance of these TGF-ß1 polymorphism in glioma risk and prognosis. A case-control study that included 114 glioma patients and 138 cancer-free controls was performed. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were evaluated by polymerase chain reaction followed by restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to calculate odds ratio (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI). The influence of TGF-ß1 -509C/T and 869T/C polymorphisms on glioma patient survival was evaluated by a Cox regression model adjusted for patients' age and sex and represented in Kaplan-Meier curves. Our results demonstrated that TGF-ß1 gene polymorphisms -509C/T and 869T/C are not significantly associated with glioma risk. Survival analyses showed that the homozygous -509TT genotype associates with longer overall survival of glioblastoma (GBM) patients when compared with patients carrying CC + CT genotypes (OR, 2.41; 95 % CI, 1.06-5.50; p = 0.036). In addition, the homozygous 869CC genotype is associated with increased overall survival of GBM patients when compared with 869TT + TC genotypes (OR, 2.62; 95 % CI, 1.11-6.17; p = 0.027). In conclusion, this study suggests that TGF-ß1 -509C/T and 869T/C polymorphisms are not significantly associated with risk for developing gliomas but may be relevant prognostic biomarkers in GBM patients.

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OBJECTIVE: To determine in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy the value of QT interval dispersion for identifying the induction of sustained ventricular tachycardia in the electrophysiological study or the risk of sudden cardiac death. METHODS: We assessed QT interval dispersion in the 12-lead electrocardiogram of 26 patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy. We analyzed its association with sustained ventricular tachycardia and sudden cardiac death, and in 16 controls similar in age and sex. RESULTS: (mean ± SD). QT interval dispersion: patients = 53.8±14.1ms; control group = 35.0±10.6ms, p=0.001. Patients with induction of ventricular tachycardia: 52.5±13.8ms; without induction of ventricular tachycardia: 57.5±12.8ms, p=0.420. In a mean follow-up period of 41±11 months, five sudden cardiac deaths occurred. QT interval dispersion in this group was 62.0±17.8, and in the others it was 51.9±12.8ms, p=0.852. Using a cutoff > or = 60ms to define an increase in the degree of the QT interval dispersion, we were able to identify patients at risk of sudden cardiac death with a sensitivity of 60%, a specificity of 57%, and positive and negative predictive values of 25% and 85%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy have a significant increase in the degree of QT interval dispersion when compared with the healthy population. However it, did not identify patients with induction of ventricular tachycardia in the electrophysiological study, showing a very low predictive value for defining the risk of sudden cardiac death in the population studied.

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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of systolic or diastolic dysfunction, or both on congestive heart failure functional class. METHODS: Thirty-six consecutive patients with a clinical diagnosis of congestive heart failure with sinus rhythm, who were seen between September and November of 1998 answered an adapted questionnaire about tolerance to physical activity for the determination of NYHA functional class. The patients were studied with transthoracic Doppler echocardiography. Two groups were compared: group 1 (19 patients in functional classes I and II) and group 2 (17 patients in functional classes III and IV). RESULTS: The average ejection fraction was significantly higher in group 1 (44.84%±8.04% vs. 32.59%±11.48% with p=0.0007). The mean ratio of the initial/final maximum diastolic filling velocity (E/A) of the left ventricle was significantly smaller in group 1 (1.07±0.72 vs. 1.98±1.49 with p=0.03). The average maximum systolic pulmonary venous velocity (S) was significantly higher in group 1 (53.53cm/s ± 12.02cm/s vs. 43.41cm/s ± 13.55cm/s with p=0.02). The mean ratio of maximum systolic/diastolic pulmonary venous velocity was significantly higher in group 1 (1.52±0.48 vs. 1.08±0.48 with p=0.01). A predominance of pseudo-normal and restrictive diastolic patterns existed in group 2 (58.83% in group 2 vs. 21.06% in group 1 with p=0.03). CONCLUSION: Both the systolic dysfunction index and the patterns of diastolic dysfunction evaluated by Doppler echocardiography worsened with the evolution of congestive heart failure.

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OBJECTIVE: Physical exercise helps to prevent cardiovascular disorders. Campaigns promoting exercise have taken many people to the parks of our city. The most appropriate exercise for preventing cardiovascular disorders is the aerobic modality; inappropriate exercise acutely increases cardiovascular risk, especially in individuals at higher risk. Therefore, assessing the cardiovascular risk of these individuals and their physical activities is of practical value. METHODS: In the Parque Fernando Costa, we carried out the project "Exercício e Coração" (Exercise and Heart) involving 226 individuals. Assessment of the cardiovascular risk and of the physical activity practiced by the individuals exercising at that park was performed with a questionnaire and measurement of the following parameters: blood pressure, weight, height, and waist/hip ratio. The individuals were lectured on the benefits provided by exercise and how to correctly exercise. Each participant received a customized exercise prescription. RESULTS: In regard to risk, 43% of the individuals had health problems and 7% of the healthy individuals had symptoms that could be attributed to heart disorders. High blood pressure was observed in a large amount of the population. In regard to the adequacy of the physical activity, the individuals exercised properly. The project was well accepted, because the participants not only appreciated the initiative, but also reported altering their exercise habits after taking part in the project. CONCLUSION: Data obtained in the current study point to the need to be more careful in assessing the health of individuals who exercise at parks, suggesting that city parks should have a sector designated for assessing and guiding physical activity.

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In microeconomic analysis functions with diminishing returns to scale (DRS) have frequently been employed. Various properties of increasing quasiconcave aggregator functions with DRS are derived. Furthermore duality in the classical sense as well as of a new type is studied for such aggregator functions in production and consumer theory. In particular representation theorems for direct and indirect aggregator functions are obtained. These involve only small sets of generator functions. The study is carried out in the contemporary framework of abstract convexity and abstract concavity.

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We prove that the Cuntz semigroup is recovered functorially from the Elliott invariant for a large class of C¤-algebras. In particular, our results apply to the largest class of simple C¤-algebras for which K-theoretic classification can be hoped for. This work has three significant consequences. First, it provides new conceptual insight into Elliott's classification program, proving that the usual form of the Elliott conjecture is equivalent, among Z-stable algebras, to a conjecture which is in general substantially weaker and for which there are no known counterexamples. Second and third, it resolves, for the class of algebras above, two conjectures of Blackadar and Handelman concerning the basic structure of dimension functions on C¤-algebras. We also prove in passing that the Kuntz-Pedersen semigroup is recovered functorially from the Elliott invariant for all simple unital C¤-algebras of interest.

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OBJECTIVES: To assess attitudes to HIV risk and acceptability of rapid HIV testing among clients of street-based female sex workers (FSW) in Lausanne, Switzerland, where HIV prevalence in the general population is 0.4%. METHODS: The authors conducted a cross-sectional study in the red light district of Lausanne for five nights in September of 2008, 2009 and 2010. Clients of FSW were invited to complete a questionnaire in the street assessing demographic characteristics, attitudes to HIV risk and HIV testing history. All clients interviewed were then offered anonymous finger stick rapid HIV testing in a van parked on-site. RESULTS: The authors interviewed 112, 127 and 79 clients in 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively. All were men, average age 32-37 years old; 40-60% were in a stable relationship. History of unprotected sex was higher with non-commercial partners (33-50%) than with FSW (6-11%); 29-46% of clients had never undergone an HIV test. Anonymous rapid HIV testing was accepted by 45-50% of clients. Out of 109 HIV tests conducted during the three study periods, none was reactive. CONCLUSIONS: On-site HIV counselling and testing is acceptable among clients of FSW in this urban setting. These individuals represent an unquantified population, a proportion of which has an incomplete understanding of HIV risk in the face of high-risk behaviour, with implications for potential onward transmission to non-commercial sexual partners.

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In rats, neonatal treatment with monosodium L-glutamate (MSG) induces several metabolic and neuroendocrine abnormalities, which result in hyperadiposity. No data exist, however, regarding neuroendocrine, immune and metabolic responses to acute endotoxemia in the MSG-damaged rat. We studied the consequences of MSG treatment during the acute phase response of inflammatory stress. Neonatal male rats were treated with MSG or vehicle (controls, CTR) and studied at age 90 days. Pituitary, adrenal, adipo-insular axis, immune, metabolic and gonadal functions were explored before and up to 5 h after single sub-lethal i.p. injection of bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 150 microg/kg). Our results showed that, during the acute phase response of inflammatory stress in MSG rats: (1) the corticotrope-adrenal, leptin, insulin and triglyceride responses were higher than in CTR rats, (2) pro-inflammatory (TNFalpha) cytokine response was impaired and anti-inflammatory (IL-10) cytokine response was normal, and (3) changes in peripheral estradiol and testosterone levels after LPS varied as in CTR rats. These data indicate that metabolic and neroendocrine-immune functions are altered in MSG-damaged rats. Our study also suggests that the enhanced corticotrope-corticoadrenal activity in MSG animals could be responsible, at least in part, for the immune and metabolic derangements characterizing hypothalamic obesity.